My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL Central

Before I start, let me just say this. Congratulations Knicks fans! For only 60% of your starting line-up and half your team, you were able to go from being the 6th best team in the east to being the 5th best team in the east. Quite a day in the big city. Let's get to the baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Opening Thought: "Hello, Baxter? Baxter, is that you? Bark twice if you're in Milwaukee."

I read a story a while back about the food at Miller Park. The writer talked about eating for the cycle, which included four different kinds of sausage. The sausage race at Miller Park also includes four kinds of sausage (including, I'm told, chorizo. Yum). I don't really have a joke or a point, I just think more things in life should include four kinds of sausage.

Off-season: Who knew Milwaukee would be the eventual winners of the Zack Greinke sweepstakes? Add the Shaun Marcum trade and the Brewers spent the off-season improving their starting pitching, which is good because Milwaukee's team ERA was only better than Arizona and Pittsburgh in the NL last year. Sure, nobody wants to be the team stuck with Yuniesky Betancourt, but that's just the way it goes sometimes.

Questions: Can the move to the NL help Zack Greinke bounce back? Can Rickie Weeks do that again and stay healthy?

Answers: Hell yes and probably not. Pencil Greinke in for an ERA in the low 3's and 17-20 wins. Not only is he still really good, but you can't underestimate the psychology of getting out of Kansas City. As for Weeks, last season was the first time he played in more than 130 games and it was the first time he hit over .235 while playing more than 100 games. I need to see both of those things happen again before I'm sold.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Fielder and Braun are sure things. Casey McGehee and Corey Hart round out a really strong middle of the order. I know people worry about Hart's strike-outs, but he went .283/31/102 last year with 140 strike-outs. It's not like he can go much higher, right? Right?

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen, but I actually don't hate it too much. John Axford is a perfectly adequate option at closer and Manny Parra's move to the bullpen gives them a solid lefty out there. I think they'll need another right-hander (I would count on getting anything useful from LaTroy Hawkins or Takashi Saito), but I've certainly seen worse bullpens.

Closing Thought: Quick disclaimer, all predictions regarding the Brewers assume that the entire state of Wisconsin won't be on strike/laid off/on fire/abandoned by September.

Prediction: First place, really interesting playoff team with Greinke and Gallardo at the top of the rotation and some chips in their system to trade if they're in contention.

Cincinnati Reds
Opening Thought: "We said we weren't gonna talk about Cincinnati ever, OK? - Is that why you have that shoebox in your closet that says 'Cincinnati'?"

I wrote a whole thing about my trip to the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Great park, nice people, awful team. Since then, the Reds have become decidely less awful, and may be growing into the team that the fans and the stadium deserve.

Off-season: If all the Reds did this off-season was get rid of Aaron Harang, that's not such a bad use of their time. And, as far as I can tell, that is basically is all they did. I know they picked up Edgar Renteria, but he's not even slated to be starting and he apparently doesn't become useful until you get to the World Series.

Questions: Can Edinson Volquez get all the way back to his 2008 form? Are Homer Bailey and Travis Wood ready? Is it finally Jay Bruce's year?

Answers: I think so, I honestly don't know and I think so. Jay Bruce turns 24 on April 3rd, so even though he's been up since 2008, he's just now nearing his prime. If Joey Votto can keep up last year's MVP production and Bruce can add a break-out year of his own...watch out. As for the pitchers, I really like Volquez, we'll just have to see how healthy he is. I'm not sure about Homer Bailey, but Travis Wood strikes me as the kind of guy who settles in quickly and puts together a run of perfectly average 15-win seasons.

My Favorite Thing: I like the balance with the Reds. They certainly have the weapons to score runs, the starting pitching is solid and the bullpen might be my favorite part. Francisco Cordero is another perfectly adequate closer and he'll be set-up Aroldis Chapman and Jose Arredondo. Chapman looks as good as advertised and I've always liked Arredondo.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: It's hard to pick something here. This isn't a perfect team, but they're balanced and they've got good organizational depth so they can keep building. The Reds were even tied for the league lead in fielding percentage last year. I guess the bullpen has some question marks, but I really like the upside there.

Closing Thought: Repeating as a division champ isn't easy. As much as I like the Reds, you have to be really good to go back-to-back and I'm not sure they're that good.

Prediction: Second place and a wild card birth. The NL wild card is going to have to deal with the Phillies, so that's probably where the Cincinnati train stops.

St. Louis Cardinals
Opening Thought: "At the current time I am looking at a number of different fields from which to disseminate which offer is most pursuant to my benefit. What do you want? What do I want? What does anybody want? Leniency. These circumstances are mitigated. Right now. They're mitigated. He knows what I'm talking about. A retainer. Nobody in this town works without a retainer. You think you can find someone who does, you have my blessing. But I think we all know that person isn't going to represent you as well as I can...Re-TAIN-er. Retainer."

Off-season: $8 million to Lance Berkman, 2 years at just over $8 million to Jake Westbrook. I could probably find about 8 million Yankee fans who will tell you that Lance Berkman is 8 million percent finished. Meanwhile, they can't scrape together the money to resign Albert Pujols. St. Louis gets no credit for any moves they make until Pujols is signed or traded.

Questions: Just one, because it's the only one that matters. What happens without Adam Wainwright?

Answers: Bad things, very bad things. I've always thought the fortunes of this team were tied to Chris Carpenter and how healthy he can be, but that was because Wainwright was good for 18-20 wins and a sub 3 ERA and you didn't really have to think about it. Now they have to ask Carpenter to carry this pitching staff on his very fragile shoulders. I like Jamie Garcia just fine, but it could still be a long season in St. Louis, especially with the game's best hitter peaking toward the exit.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. This team still has Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and an underrated Skip Schumaker. Jon Jay, who hit .300 in 287 at-bats last year should replace Berkman in right field by opening day. The Cardinals can hit.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. Can you win a division if Jake Westbrook is your number 2 or 3 starter? No, no you can't. Plus, Ryan Franklin is 37 and didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 3.46 ERA last year.

Closing Thought: "Allegedly, I'm saying your situation would be concurrently improved if I had two-hundred bucks in my pocket right now."

Prediction: Third place, and that's only because I know Dave Duncan can make any pitching staff respectable.

Chicago Cubs
Opening Thought: "fool me once, shame on...shame on you...fool me-you can't get fooled again."

The Cubs have been fooling their fans since the Taft administration. All I wanted to do was go out on a limb and pick the Cubs to finally win one. Then, I looked at their roster and, well, here we are.

Off-season: The Cubs replaced Derek Lee at first base with Carlos Pena. Pena is a .241 career hitter who hit .196 last year. That's right, .196. Not against lefties, against everyone. At least he's also old and way past his prime. Also, Chicago may be attempting to return to the glory days of the last time they almost won a championship but then didn't, signing Kerry Wood as a set-up man. I'm setting the over/under on Wood's first DL stint at May 12th.

Questions: Do the Cubs have an ace? Do the Cubs have a number 3 hitter? Is Alfonso Soriano finished?

Answers: No, no and yes, but that happened years ago, why are you just asking now?

My Favorite Thing: Starlin Castro. Castro hit .300 last year as a 20-year old rookie. Things like power and learning how to steal a base will come with experience and the Cubs can build around Castro for the next 12 years.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: So much to choose from, but I'll go with starting pitching. At least the bullpen has Carlos Marmol, who struck-out 138 batters in 77.2 innings last year. That's not a typo. Marmol recorded 233 outs last year, 138 by strike-out. That's crazy.

Closing Thought: The Cubs make me sad. Not only have they gone without a title since 1908, but they aren't even close to one now. This team is old, lacking in talent and just not that good. Help appears to be on the way from the farm system (Trey McNutt, Brett Jackson), but we've heard that before in Chicago and just this off-season they dealt Chris Archer to Tampa.

Prediction: Fourth place. The season is already over for St. Louis' ace, and it's not even March yet. And still, the Cubs won't be better than their rivals.

Houston Astros
Opening Thought: "I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality I could be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves." (maybe I need to explain some of these...Astros...this is from the episode when Homer was an astronaut...some of these are just for me)

Off-season: Houston is another team that seems to have napped through the winter. It seems like they've got a bunch of young guys and they've decided to run them out there this season. I like the attitude, I don't know if they'll like the results.

Questions: What now with Carlos Lee? How good is JA Happ?

Answers: Best case scenario, he starts off hot and the Astros can pawn him off on some unsuspecting contender (as a Yankee fan, I'm shaking my head somberly). As for Happ, very good, I think.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris (who wasn't that good last year but should get better). Teams that are hard to score against are always worth keeping an eye on, and Houston might be hard to score against.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Offense. Specifically, I'm not sure what to make of it. The numbers from Hunter Pence are almost identical for each of the last three years. .280ish, 25HR, 80-90 RBI. Pence turns 28 in April and I'm pretty sure that's what he is. So, who carries this offense? The aging Carlos Lee? Chris Johnson? I'm not sure anybody will.

Closing Thought: This division has too many teams. You can really get bogged down in the middle.

Prediction: Fifth place, but I think the Astros are the wild card in this division. I know what the Cubs are and I know what the Cardinals are without Adam Wainwright, but I'm not really sure about the Astros. Could they finish second, or even contend for the top? Sure. Could they finish last? Well, maybe not in this division.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Opening Thought: "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things that I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul."

The Pirates haven't been even remotely close to possibly contending since Barry Bonds left. Even the Royals have been decent a couple of times in the last 20 years. Even the Nationals have been OK once or twice. The Pirates are just an abomination.

Off-season: The Pirates spent $5 million on Lyle Overbay. I don't even know what to say about that. Do they believe he's the missing piece that'll vault them to 68 wins? They'd be better off just giving five dollars to every fan who shows up in Pittsburgh this year.

Questions: Which Pirate gets to finish the season with the Yankees?

Answers: My money's on Joel Hanrahan.

My Favorite Thing: The Pirates should be fun to watch. Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen. If they actually keep everyone and develop some pitching, Pittsburgh is about three years away from contending. Of course, we've been here before.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: One look at Pittsburgh's pitching staff caused me to immediately look up the single season record for runs allowed by a team (answer: the 1899 Cleveland Spiders who allowed 1252 runs in 154 games).

Closing Thought: When do the Steelers report to training camp?

Prediction: Last place. Another long season in Pittsburgh.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL West

The 13 feet of snow lingering outside your window may serve as a cold reminder that it's still winter, but pitchers and catchers reported this week, which means it's almost time for baseball. This year, I'm starting with the NL West, because that's where the champs live. Also, it's the division I care about the least.

Colorado Rockies
Opening Thought: IF YA SMEEELLLLLLL....WHAT THE ROCKIES...ARE COOKIN'!

Did you know the Rockies finished tied for 13th in baseball in runs allowed last year? Is it possible that all the Coors Field hysteria we heard in this team's early years had less to do with the mile high air and more to do with the combination of awful pitching and steroid monsters that defined late 90's baseball?

Off-season: Colorado signed Jason Giambi to a minor league contract. Did they lose a bet? Are they thinking of him as a mascot? I guess anytime you can sign a guy who had 6 homeruns and 47 strike-outs for you in 176 at-bats last year, you have to do it. I'm not wild about the Jorge De La Rosa contract either. Over $10 million a year is a lot for a guy who's 29 and pretty much is what he is now. At least it's only for 2 years. Jose Lopez is an interesting pick-up, we'll talk more about him later.

Questions: How dominant can Ubaldo Jimenez be? I don't like the rest of Colorado's rotation that much, I think he'll need to carry them. How good can Carlos Gonzalez be? This line-up has nice pieces all over the field, but they need Gonzalez to be that big-time number three hitter who powers the offense.

Answers: Very dominant and extremely good. I'm all-in on Jimenez and CarGo. Ubaldo is right in the middle of what should be his prime. He slowed down after a fast start last year and I'm hoping he learned something about pacing himself. Gonzalez is 25 and hit .336 last year. If he can just learn to take a few more walks and strike-out a little less, he'll be a legit MVP candidate for the next seven years.

My Favorite Thing: I like Colorado's depth a lot. Ryan Spilborghs is a nice fourth outfielder who can hit lefties. Ty Wigginton brings some power and crazy versatility, as well as insurance at both corner infield spots if Ian Stewart can't get it together or if Todd Helton doesn't have another good year in him.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Huston Street spent plenty of time on the DL last year, and when he was healthy he wasn't that great (3.61 ERA, 5 blown saves in 25 opportunities). Only one of those blown saves came after August 20th and he finished strong, but I'm not convinced. Matt Lindstrom is an interesting plan B at closer, but he's 31 now and doesn't look to have much left. They could have some minor league help on the way, but for now this is a concern.

Closing Thought: Back to Jose Lopez. He had an awful 2010, but so did everyone in Seattle. In the two seasons before that, Lopez looked like a promising young second baseman (2008 - age 24, .297, 17HR, 89RBI; 2009 - age 25, .272, 25HR, 96RBI). At age 27, he moves into a better line-up and a better park for hitting. Either he has a big year or he's pretty much done.

Prediction: First place, probably not enough pitching to advance in the playoffs.

San Francisco Giants
Opening Thought: "There's two kinds of people in this world. Those who get stomped on and those who do the stomping...that famous guy said it. What's his name? Uh, oh yeah, Jesus!"

I could not have been happier for Giants' fans last fall when they won. The Giants always seemed like one of the quietly tortured franchises in sports. The rival Dodgers have a surprisingly high five world series titles since the move to LA (seriously, I know a lot about baseball and I wouldn't have guessed more than 3), while the Giants hadn't one won since 1954. Felt to me a lot like Yankees/Red Sox pre-2004, only without the unyielding hype. Anyway, good for them.

Off-season: I didn't like the Aubrey Huff signing last year, and even though I was wrong about that, I still don't like the re-signing this year, especially for a two-year deal when they've got Brandon Belt on the way up. I really don't like the Tejada deal, even for one year. Tejada is 36 (at least) and his .269 batting average last year was his worst since 2001. He's pretty much all downside. They've got a couple of promising young shortstops in their system, so maybe they just wanted a one-year stopgap guy, but still, the only way Tejada is worth $6.5 million this year is if he digs up $5 million while searching for buried treasure beneath McCovey Cove.

Questions: Can this team's pitching get its offense, which still looks awful, back to the post-season for a run at a repeat? Will there be a championship hangover? What happened to Pablo Sandoval?

Answers: Maybe, probably and I have no idea. If Pablo bounces back to form, I think he and Buster Posey can bring enough offense to carry this team to just enough wins, but Pablo was benched for most of the 2010 post-season, that's not great. I don't know where he goes from here.

My Favorite Thing: Obviously, that would be starting pitching. Don't expect another hot start from Barry Zito, but do expect a big year from Madison Bumgarner. Tim Lincecum's mid-year doldrums in 2010 should make Giants' fans a little nervous, but on paper, this rotation should be able to compete with anyone. The bullpen isn't bad either.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: It's a tie between offense and age. San Francisco's line-up has a weird mix of really young talent and really old guys who were never all that good to begin with. When you add the injury risk of "veteran" (old) guys to the relative lack of depth the Giants have, you get a formula for some interesting (and not in a good way) starting line-ups over the course of the season. That's especially true when their best hitter is a catcher who needs rest from time to time.

Closing Thought: As I look at this roster, I'm having a hard time figuring out how they won a world series with this team. I couldn't hate San Francisco's offense more. I'm all about the power of good pitching, but you have to score sometimes.

Prediction: Second place and probably no wild card. I just don't see it, but I didn't really see it last year either and they won it all, so there's that.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Opening Thought: "sometimes you think you have true love and then you catch the early flight home from San Diego and a couple of nude people jump out of your bathroom blindfolded like a goddamn magic show ready to double team your girlfriend."

In yet another example of why nobody should ever get married, divorce has ruined the Los Angeles Dodgers. The ownership situation in LA has been a catastrophe for what feels like forever now. The problem is, a big market team like LA can't just skip off-seasons like this. They missed out on Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, John Lackey last year, etc etc. I'm not saying they should have signed all of those guys, I'm not even saying they would have landed any of them, but a team like the Dodgers should be in on the top free agents, and when they aren't, it's a problem.

Off-season: Juan Uribe is super-versatile, and the power he brings at second base fits in nicely with a team that doesn't get enough power from first base or right field. I like Tony Gwynn Jr. as a fourth outfielder and a pinch-hitter/pinch-runner. On the other hand, $12 million for 36 year old Hideki Kuroda seems a bit steep when you consider Kuroda went 11-13 last year. More importantly, Manny Ramirez is gone and they didn't bother replacing him, or more accurately, replacing what he was supposed to be, which was one of their big bats. Sure, he didn't actually do that last year, but they didn't go anywhere last year either. If this team wants to make the play-offs, they need somebody to be what they wanted Manny to be.

Questions: What is Matt Kemp and can he carry this team? Who winds up playing left field?

Answers: Matt Kemp is the next Carlos Beltran, which means no, he cannot carry a team all by himself. My money for left field would be on Marcus Thames, who hits whenever teams let him play, and even though he is an awful defensive outfielder, I think the Dodgers will need his power.

My Favorite Thing: Ummm...Dodger dogs? There's nothing that really jumps out at me about the Dodgers. I don't hate the whole team, but there's nothing I really love either. Kershaw and Billingsley are a nice top of the rotation, but I wouldn't say they stand out.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: I'd have to say the back and of the rotation. I've never been a huge fan of Ted Lilly, and Jon Garland is one of those "innings-eaters", which is basically a nice way of saying he doesn't win much but he doesn't mind staying out there and getting pounded so you don't have to use your bullpen.

Closing Thought: I'm interested to see if Don Mattingly inherits Joe Torre's penchant for destroying relief pitchers. I'm sure Jonathan Broxton is interested too.

Prediction: Third place. This team should actually have some upside, but after a few pretty disappointing years, I need to see it before I'll believe it.

San Diego Padres
Opening Thought: "discovered by the Germans in 1904, they named it San Diego which, of course, in German means a whale's vagina."

I believe my take on the Padres at the beginning of last season was "Boooooooooo!". That was immediately followed by San Diego spending basically the whole season in first place. I wouldn't say I was wrong about the Padres as much as I would say I underestimated how bad the rest of the National League was.

Off-season: Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson and Aaron Harang aren't exactly the west coast version of the big three, ya know? Jason Bartlett looks like a nice addition, but he's 31 now and 2009 was really his only good year. I'm concerned Jorge Cantu may be finished, and the spacious Petco Park won't help him prove me wrong.

I've send this before, but I'll say it again now. When the highlight of your off-season is trading away your best player, that's not great. It's even more not great when none of the guys you got back seem ready to be huge factors this season. I'm not saying I hate the package they got from Boston, but I'm not saying I love it either (take a look at Casey Kelly's stats at double-A Portland last year, ouch!)

Questions: Can the Padres get close to 90 wins again? How will they replace Adrian Gonzalez and his production? Can Mat Latos start 150 games?

Answers: I don't see how, they won't and probably not but it may be worth a try. The toughest part about pitching to the Padres this year will be figuring out who to walk now that Gonzalez is gone. Maybe Ryan Ludwick.

My Favorite Thing: Has to be youth. Youth is only good if it develops into actual major league talent at some point (for example, Wil Venable is 28 now, it's possible he's just not going to happen), but it's still fun to watch and talk about what the team could be in a few years. Cameron Maybin is still only 23, and we ought to start seeing something from him this year. Guys like that will make this team watchable.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pretty much everyone who isn't Mat Latos or Cameron Maybin. Personally, I don't see a ton of promise in San Diego's young guys other than Latos and Maybin, and it's not like they have a long history of developing their young talent into great players. Bullpen strength really carried this team last year, and relief pitching is a real variable from year to year.

Closing Thought: "...and I'm Ron Burgundy, go f*ck yourself, San Diego."

Prediction: Fourth place. I could very well be wrong about this team again, you can see my opinion of this division isn't exactly through the roof, but I have a hard time seeing the same team massively overachieving for a second straight year after trading their best player.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Opening Thought: "No milk will ever be our milk."

I'm done with Arizona. DONE! Every year I pick them to win, or at least be good, every year they suck. They're like a baseball version of every M. Night Shyamalan movie since sixth sense. Well I won't get twisted again!

Off-season: I've always liked Xavier Nady, but I always liked Claudell Washington for some reason too, that didn't make him good. I have to admit to not being sold on a 33 year old J.J. Putz as the new closer, but last year's numbers say maybe I should be (65 K's in 54 IP). Of course, if you're not winning, picking up a potentially strong closer isn't all that helpful. Juan Miranda seems to be the new first baseman after a trade with the Yankees, I hope D'Backs' fans enjoy strike-outs.

Questions: Can getting out of Pittsburgh breathe some life into Zach Duke? Will last year's almost perfect game be the highlight of Armando Galarraga's career? Did you know Melvin Mora was still alive?

Answers: Probably not if he's just going to another crappy team, almost definitely and yes, I did know that. Truthfully, I do wonder if a change of scenery will do anything for the 27 year old Duke, who's never pitched a full season to an ERA below 4. I'm starting to think he was just never all that good.

My Favorite Thing: Juston Upton. Upton is still only 23 and if he can manage to actually play a healthy season, he should be a top 10 player. I can't wait for him to be a Yankee, Brian Cashman should starting putting together the sampler platter of crappy prospects now, just so it's ready whenever Arizona comes calling.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Lots to choose from, but I'll have to go with starting pitching. ESPN has Ian Kennedy as this team's number 1 starter. Just last year this team was looking at Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and a possibly returning Brandon Webb. Now? Ian Kennedy, the guy some people in New York were calling the next Mike Mussina, right up until they saw him pitch against big league hitters.

Closing Thought: You can't spell Diamondbacks without "I am bad". Seriously, you can't, all those letters are right in there.

Prediction: Last place. I don't see a lot of hope for this team unless the pitching turns out to be way better than it looks. They might score some runs on days when Chris Young isn't striking out four times, but they don't have one starting pitcher I'd want on my team. That's bad times.

One Super Prediction

Before I get to what happens next Sunday, here are some things I learned from the championship games.

The Jets offense is a catastrophe. Actually, I didn't learn that, it's been that way as long as I can remember. Good plays always look like a coincidence, they're constantly disorganized, I always know what they're running next. They need to fire (and possibly incarcerate) everyone who has ever coached offense for that team and start from scratch.

I'm so tired of hearing about the Roethlisbozo. If the Steeler defense somehow won them a game in which The Bozo went 1 for 20 for 12 yards with 5 interceptions, the sports media would spend the next week telling me how that one completion came at the perfect time and how The Bozo always knows when to step up. I thought Tebow was the new Favre, maybe I was wrong.

The internet has officially ruined sports media too. Jay Cutler's knee injury, which basically became the sports equivalent of Watergate for a day and a half, proved that sports journalism has become the same as every other kind of journalism - just tell everyone what famous people are tweeting and let the magic happen.

Alright, let's get on with it. As usual, for someone who watched something like 200 hours of football this season, I seem to have learned very little. For gambling purposes, anything you read here should be quickly forgotten.

First Impression:
My very first thought for a pick was this. If the Bozo can manage to not assault anyone between now and the superbowl, than I like the Steelers. If he's in custody by the time next Sunday rolls around, I like Green Bay. So really, my first instinct was, it's a toss up.

Offenses - Passing Game:
Clear advantage to Green Bay. Better QB, better wide-outs, better protection. The Bozo can probably hit one deep ball to Mike Wallace at some point, but Rodgers can hit one to Greg Jennings and another to James Jones. Rodgers is also more accurate and less prone to mistakes, while The Bozo is less accurate and more prone to felonies.

Offenses - Running Game:
The Packers can't run the ball at all, which is handy because you can't run against Pittsburgh anyway. I actually think they can turn this weakness into a strength, because they know they can't run and they won't spend the first half banging their heads against the wall trying, like, say, a certain team from New Jersey recently did. Pittsburgh has a clear running advantage, but with their O-line pretty banged up, I'm not sure how much they can use it.

Defenses:
I have a feeling we're going to spend the next week hearing about how this game is about the Green Bay offense vs. the Pittsburgh defense. You wanna know a secret? The Green Bay defense is just as good as Pittsburgh's. The Packers only gave up 8 more points this season than Pittsburgh did, they get great pressure, they force turnovers and they're generally difficult to play against.

On the other hand, I'm not sure the Steeler D is quite as dominant as people want them to be. Bad first half against Baltimore, bad second half against the Jets, destroyed by New England earlier in the season. When I look at their schedule, I'm not blown away by who they really held down. Holding teams like Oakland and Carolina to 3 points doesn't really knock my socks off.

I'm calling the defensive battle a draw.

Quarterback Ability to (allegedly) Sexually Assault People:
Clear advantage to Pittsburgh here. Aaron Rodgers has shown no aptitude in this area. This might turn out to be useful. During the game, The Bozo will try to throw touchdowns on the Green Bay defense, and they'll say "no, no, don't throw touchdowns on us", and they'll try to stop him, but he'll keep trying anyway. After the game, he'll say they secretly wanted him to throw touchdowns on him.

Prediction:
I'm actually not sure this game will be that close. Maybe it's just wishful thinking and how much I dislike The Bozo. Maybe I spent too much time watching the Packers this season because they had my fantasy D and top WR. Whatever the reasons, Green Bay just kind of looks like a better team to me. Plus, I think playing inside really favors the Packers, I'm not sure I'd like them so much if there wasn't a roof on this game.

Packers 30, Steelers 13.

From Time To Time

If you don't follow politics, you might not know that, in the recently discovered spirit of civility, some Democrats and Republicans will be sitting together during the State of the Union address. Basically, we're getting all the fun of a Presidential address mixed with all the awkwardness of a junior high school dance. Sounds like fun to me.

Before we start, I watched the pre-speech coverage on MSNBC, no more Keith Olbermann. I didn't always agree with Keith, but I've always liked Keith. Yes, Olbermann is very liberal and presented the news with a very clear slant, but he always started with the facts and then colored them to fit what he was trying to say. If the clowns at Fox were willing to at least start in reality, I'd be able to watch their channel for more than five minutes without laughing my ass off or yelling at my television machine.

OK. Ready? 3...2...1...President! (I know that's not how they actually introduced him, but I think my way is better)

While the President is making the traditional three hour walk from the entrance of the chamber to the podium, one quick note. Last year I checked out before the Republican response. This year? Hell no. Why? Because this year, we're not just getting a Republican response, the tea idiots are doing their own response. And do you know who they got to do it? Michele Bachmann! I can't miss that.

I thought Boehner was gonna cry when the President started off by congratulating him. PS...Boehner isn't nearly as orange as people keep saying he is. Even money says he and Biden are passing a flask back and forth. Seriously, I wouldn't let those two sit together, they look like trouble. The President may have to threaten to turn this speech right around and go home.

Hey, um, the President forgot to start by telling us that the state of our union is strong. How am I supposed to know what the state of our union is? Is it strong? just OK? craptastic? funky? We have no idea.

It's probably not a good sign that this year's depressing first ten minutes sound a lot like last year's depressing first ten minutes. But at least I learned that China is now the home of the world's fastest computer. It's amazing what child labor and political prisoners can build with the right motivation.

Sorry, but I have to say this. I'm so tired of hearing how America is "the light of the world" and "built on an idea". It's a great place to live, and I really like it here, but it's not Neverland. I think we need to work on being a little less pleased with ourselves, and the President just made my point for me by saying "we're the nation of Facebook". Oh, he meant that as a good thing? Nevermind.

"We'll fund the Apollo projects of our time" says the President, which are apparently renewable energy projects. This is why we're not getting anywhere. Kennedy was sending people to the moon, Obama wants to build solar panels. And he wants to do it by eliminating tax cuts for oil companies. Also, unicorns for everyone!

The President said "only parents can turn the TV off". He added, "not right now though, this is important".

Maybe it's just because I have no soul, but these inspiring stories about Michigan roofing brothers and some high school in Denver that got better just give me a headache. And I just saw Biden and Boehner laughing. I told you not to let them sit together, they may already be drunk.

In the middle of all these boring human interest stories, I'm pretty sure the President just said he wants 100,000 new teachers. That sounds like a pretty good idea, what exactly are we planning to pay them with?

John McCain and John Kerry are sitting together, clearly talking about losing Presidential elections and trying to figure out how either one of them ever lost to George W. Bush.

I just heard something about high speed rail for the second year in a row. I don't get our fascination with high speed rail. Chris Matthews has been talking about it all week and how you can get from Rome to Venice in an hour. How about figuring out a way for me to fly without spending three hours in security? To my point, the President just joked that high speed rail can be "faster than flying, without the pat down". HAHAHA...of course that joke only works until some asshole sneaks a bomb onto a train.

I'm noticing a lot of sneak attacks from the President tonight. He was just rambling for a while about regulations and what-not, and then suddenly we were talking about health care. The Democrats were up applauding before the Republicans even knew what hit them. Arrrggghh. Stop mentioning random people. I know it tests well in focus groups, but that only serves to remind me of what gullible idiots people are.

Now we're talking about a five-year spending freeze (not gonna happen), defense spending cuts (definitely not gonna happen), a bipartisan solution to social security (really not gonna happen) and asking millionaires to give up their tax breaks (absolutely not gonna happen).

It's fun having a Republican Speaker sitting behind the President, because you can watch him and you immediately know where the Republicans stand on things. For example, Republicans are for a simpler tax code, as long as it in no way raises taxes on rich people. Also, Republicans are definitely not for competent government.

After the President's pledge to veto any bills with earmarks, Biden was openly making faces at people in the crowd.

"American Muslims are also a part of our American family", said the President. Boehner didn't look convinced. Actually, Boehner always looks like that when he claps, like he's trying to get the taste of shit out of his mouth. Maybe that's just what his face looks like.

The President is spending an awful lot of time on foreign policy, and not just the generic "we will defeat terrorism, although I have no earthly idea how" stuff. He even mentioned two African countries. Later, Michele Bachmann will attempt to find Africa on a map (spoiler alert: it doesn't go well, but in her defense, she may believe Africa is a liberal myth).

Seriously, I think someone bet Obama he couldn't make Boehner cry. He lost that bet, but luckily, he won his secondary bet by making Biden laugh at inappropriate times and generally look goofy.

Right at the end, he finally said the state of our union is strong. I was hoping for funky. He also said, "we do big things". Well, we used to anyway. Truthfully, this wasn't my favorite Obama speech. He still seems convinced that Republicans will like him someday if he just says enough things they like.

Fun note from right after the speech. On Fox, Brit Hume suggested we're at a unique time in history in terms of public anxiety. Yes, Fox News anchor. If only we could figure out how the public got so anxious, it's a real mystery.

Next up, the Republican response from Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. I wonder if he'll mention the Packers (actually, he didn't, good for him). I'll just give you the bullet points:
debt = bad
health care = bad
regulation = bad
tax cuts = super awesome
founders = even awesomer
Then, Congressman Ryan listed 10 things he believes the government should be doing. The first six were just different ways of saying defense/security. The ninth one was basically just tax cuts, and then we were back to debt.

Hey! they're not gonna show that idiot Bachmann on TV! WTF! Why should I have to go to some website to hear what will definitely be the most entertaining speech of the night? Even Fox wouldn't broadcast it. Boooooo!!!!!! I've been had!

Right

I've been quiet for a few weeks. Sometimes it takes me a while to get a thought all the way together, or at least together enough to write something. The recent talk about civility in politics finally pulled together a thought I've had pieces of for a while now. It starts and ends with Congressman Steve Cohen.

In case you missed it, Congressman Cohen compared the tactics of the Republican party with regard to the health care debate to the tactics of nazi propaganda ace Joseph Goebbels (apparently pronounced Gerbels, because the nazis also hated spelling, and R's I guess). Lovely work by the Congressman, way to be a grown up. We'll get back to him later.

While listening to the post-Tuscon shooting media bonanza,(liberals blaming conservatives, conservatives scrambling to defend themselves, everyone talking about being nicer to each other) I was reminded of something that's been concerning me for a while now. At this point in history, the Republican party, and really, most of the conservative side of our political debate, is intellectually bankrupt.

In the wake of the recent shooting, I heard no less than three conservatives on Fox tell me "guns don't kill people, people kill people". OK, but can we at least agree that people with guns are better at it? It's unbelievable to me that one of our political parties is still arguing against gun control. Guns have become a religion on the political right in this country. No compromise, no common sense, no rationality.

Where are the conservative solutions to gun violence? Thousands of people are killed by firearms every year in this country, you can't just point to the Constitution and say "it won't let us do anything, sorry". How about a 28th amendment repealing the 2nd amendment? Nice and constitutional. Or, how about we just stop ignoring the first part of the 2nd amendment? Or, how about a tax cut for not owning a gun? Republicans love tax cuts (I was joking about that when I wrote it, but then I thought about it for a few minutes and it might be our best shot).

I'm not saying just take everyone's guns away right now and that's the answer. I don't know what the long term answer is. I'm saying, if you're not a cop, you don't need a gun, but we've got two political parties, and the one on the right basically thinks gun ownership is an American birthright. That's my point. But hey, maybe if you just keep talking about the second amendment, people will just stop getting shot one day.

(Sidenote: Don't get me started on needing guns for hunting. Tricking a wild animal out into the open so you can shoot it in the face for shits and giggles isn't any less barbaric just because it's a family tradition and your great-grandpappy used to do it.)

A few years ago now, I watched one of the earliest debates for the Republican nomination in 2008, back when there were something like 39 people still in the race. The moderator asked them who believed in evolution. I think three of them raised their hands. People on the right do the same thing with climate change science, responding to facts and verifiable data by simply claiming not to believe in it. Science isn't Tinkerbell, we don't all have to clap to make it real. Reality doesn't require you to believe in it, it's just there.

I'd like to have two parties working together to see if they can come up with smart solutions on energy and climate change. Instead, we've got one party coming up with stupid ideas like cap and trade and the other party pretending the problems aren't real. I'm not sure that's going to get us anywhere, but if you just keep saying it's not real, maybe it'll go away.

The story on economics is similar. Every time we start arguing about the economy, Democrats start quoting economists while Republicans go back to Reagan's made-up bullshit economic theory, which has somehow become the economic theory of the entire party. Reaganomics only works to destroy the middle class, and Reagan already took care of that, so it's pretty much useless now. We keep cutting taxes, the economy keeps getting crappier, but maybe if you just keep saying tax cuts create jobs it'll start to happen.

Then there's health care, and we start circling back to Congressman Cohen and the nexus of right-wing stupidity and political civility. I think we all agree that nobody is Hitler except Hitler, and nobody is a nazi except nazis. The media got so worked up about how mean Steve Cohen was being that they mostly forgot to point out that, nazi references aside, the Congressman's point was 100% valid.

The whole Republican strategy on health care has been to come up with lies and keep saying them on TV until they become true. "Death panels", the "government take over of health care", the whole thing about how people in Canada can't ever see a doctor (which is double ridiculous because even if it were true, the bill the Democrats passed doesn't resemble the Canadian health care system at all). Does any of this unbelievable bullshit sound familiar? Has the Republican party even floated a credible counter-proposal? You want a free market solution to health care? So do I. You got one? Me neither.

Why does this bother me so much? Why I am so tough on Republicans? It bothers so much because the two party system only works if both parties are making good faith efforts to do what's best for the country. Right now, I don't know if either party is. For every Republican who's basically just a lackey for an oil company or a bank, there's a Democrat who just does the bidding of a union (or an oil company, or a bank. Seriously, the two parties are barely bought and paid for by different interests at this point).

So, why so tough on Republicans? Because I think they can be better. I think I'd vote for the party of Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt if it was still the party of Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. I want to vote for candidates who believe in limited government, but who also know that government has a role beyond blowing stuff up in other countries. I want to vote for candidates who believe in personal liberty and responsibility, but who also understand that personal liberty isn't absolute when 300 million people are all trying to have a society (Sidenote number 2: I'd also like to vote for an atheist for President, but I doubt I'll live that long). I'm tough on Republicans because I want to be a Republican, but I can't, because Republican leaders are morons who spend their days trying to come up with the best right-wing sound bite.

Why am I so frustrated? I'm frustrated because factual accuracy has become optional in political arguments. I'm frustrated because politicians are worrying about civility, and that's fine, but nobody cares who's correct. I want a government in which being correct wins you the argument, and I want a Republican party in which being correct is more important than being right.

Playoff Picks and Random Comments

Before I start with my NFL playoff picks and some other random NFL comments, I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate the baseball writers on putting Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame. It only took them 2 and 14 tries respectively. If you want my extended thoughts on Alomar's case, scroll a few paragraphs down into this thing I wrote right around this time last year:
http://somethingclever13.blogspot.com/2010/01/hot-stove-reloaded.html

OK, so, first a disclaimer. I couldn't be worse at picking football games. I don't know why. This season, I had the redzone network (awesome, by the way. The best TV invention since color. I was so disappointed I couldn't get Direct TV and Sunday ticket in my apartment building, but redzone is like 100 times better, it does the channel flipping for you), so I'm hoping that makes me better informed this time around, but I wouldn't bet on it. Seriously, if anyone reading this is thinking about considering my picks when they bet on the games, you've been warned.

New Orleans vs. Seattle
Prediction: Saints 91, Seahawks 3
OK, OK...91 might be a little high, but I'm hearing people on TV and the radio all week talking about how Seattle has nothing to lose, how they're so tough at home, how this game will be closer than you think. Really? In two home games against playoff teams this year, Seattle got hammered by a combined score of 76-42, and that doesn't even count the 41-7 home loss to the Giants (that's right, and the Giants are watching from home this weekend).

The five home wins? Arizona, Carolina, San Francisco, St. Louis and San Diego (week three, and we all know San Diego doesn't start trying until at least week five). Not exactly murderer's row. I'll take the Saints, and if I did bet on football, you couldn't set the line high enough to keep me away.

Speaking of the NFC West, how many times in one season can I tune into the same NFL team, look at the QB and think "who the f*ck is that guy?" Answer, courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals: Three, and I'm not even counting Derek Anderson. This whole division was a mess. The fact that Seattle gets a home game is a catastrophe. I heard someone on the radio joke that Pete Carroll's Seahawks couldn't win the Rose Bowl this year. I'm not sure they could win the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Ravens 24
Baltimore's defense ain't what it used to be, and unlike Seattle, Kansas City really is tough at home. Their only home loss was last week's inexplicable disaster against Oakland. Either you believe that was a fluke, in which case KC wins this game close, or you believe last week was a sign of things to come, in which case Baltimore wins by 40. I'll take the Chiefs.

Speaking of the AFC West, the legend of Saint Tebow is growing exponentially. Much like god, Christians believe in Tim Tebow's talent even though nobody can actually see it (What?! Don't make that face at me! This isn't one of those times when I say god isn't real, I'm just saying you can't see him, that's what the whole faith thing is all about).

And speaking of the AFC North, can I be the one millionth person to make a joke about how you can't build your team around two aging wide-outs with reality TV shows? Can I be the two millionth person to realize Carson Palmer is completely finished? I just read a story on ESPN.com about how Marvin Lewis had demands the Bengals needed to meet if they wanted him to stay. Seriously? What was his pitch? Just give him five more years and he'll get them to the brink of mediocrity?

Read the above paragraph and smile, because for a while it looked like the Bengals might really be going somewhere, but now I feel confident in saying, the Bengals are back, baby! It really wouldn't be December without the chance to watch the Bengals pathetically limp toward the end of another disappointing season.

Indianapolis vs. New York
Prediction: Jets 31, Colts 23
I don't trust the Jets, and their defense isn't as good as it's supposed to be. Every time a team gets into 3rd and long against the Jets, the commentators tell me how the Jets are the one team you don't want to be in 3rd and long against. Then they blitz 7 guys and give up the first down. Having said that, I really don't like the Colts, and there's just something fishy about Indy this season. They've never looked right.

Speaking of the AFC South, is it just me, or is Jeff Fisher the most overrated coach in any sport? 6 winning seasons out of 16, one superbowl appearance, no championships. What am I missing? He already ruined Vince Young, please fire him before he squanders Chris Johnson's prime.

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 41, Eagles 31
This was the toughest one. The truth is, I have no idea what Michael Vick is going to do, and neither does anyone else. Could he win this game by himself? You bet your ass he could. But Aaron Rodgers is pretty good too, and while the Green Bay defense should be good enough to slow Vick down a little, I don't see how the Eagles slow Rodgers down.

Speaking of the NFC East and the Eagles, I have no desire to inhabit a world in which Rex Grossman is a better QB than Donovan McNabb, but here we are. I imagine Rex is as surprised as the rest of us. If you're Mike Shanahan, how fast would you take a do-over on taking this job? It's going to be a long however-many years it takes Mike Shanahan to get himself fired in Washington.

And speaking of Pennsylvania football, how often do you think Roger Goodell wakes up in a cold sweat from a nightmare about a Steelers vs. Eagles superbowl? Two weeks of press conferences and stories featuring Michael "big bow wow" Vick and Ben "no means maybe" Roethlisbozo. At least Vick spent some time in jail, but I still understand if some animal rights groups want to come to superbowl week and yell stuff at him. I just hope some people will come yell at the Bozo too.

Maybe if I get a couple of these right I'll do more picks next week, but for now, I still like Green Bay to get to the superbowl if they get past Vick, because I don't trust the Falcons or the Bears. In the AFC, I'm giving up on the Ravens, I can't see a way to pick against New England right now. In fact, I had the Packers winning the whole thing when I made my pre-season picks, but I think I like the Pats now, which probably means they'll find a way to lose to the Jets next week.

A Christmas Quorum

Twas the night before Christmas
and all through the House...and Senate
not a creature was stirring
not even a mouse...or Senator Bob Bennett

The stockings were hung
in the cloakrooms with care
in the hopes that campaign contributions
would soon be in there

The lame duck Congress worked hard
in their own special way
sometimes they voted
on more than one thing a day!

It was jarring, alarming
amazing, stupendous
so what if some of the things
they passed were horrendous

First came a deal
on the Bush tax cuts
did they make the hard choices?
No, silly, that would be nuts

Instead they just gave everyone
whatever they wanted
tax cuts for all
and spending undaunted

And earmarks as far
as the eye could see
project after special project
pinned to the Christmas tree

The DREAM act died
on the Senate floor
Republicans say it was amnesty
sneaking in the back door

I don't care much either way
so I'm not going to panic
but Republicans; good luck winning elections
with zero votes from Hispanics

Democrats fought against
don't ask don't tell
while Republicans fretted
about unit cohesion going to hell

But you can't ask people to fight
for our country indivisible
while simultaneously asking them
to remain invisible

So finally they repealed
that bigoted piece of crap
and then...the gay army took over the world!
oh no! it was a trap!

The 9/11 first responders bill
can't get votes from 60 men
suddenly we're all worried
about deficits again

For a fraction of the cost
of tax cuts for the wealthy
we could help keep real heroes
alive and healthy

Where is the outrage and shouting
that usually abounds?
even John Q. nine-elevington himself,
Mayor Daffy Giuliani, is nowhere to be found

If that bill doesn't pass
by the end of this week
I wish everyone who blocks it
a horrible, slow, coughing death
(they don't all have to rhyme people. My blog, my rules)

Televangelist Beck railed
against the food safety act
clearly it was some kind of
big government attack

On our personal liberties
but Glenn brought the heat
defending our holy right
to eat tainted meat

The START treaty sits
unratified and useless
apparently we're still afraid of the Russians
and I have to admit to feeling a little clueless

Didn't conservative hero Reagan
single-handedly win the cold war?
isn't that why we forgive him
for being a big corporate whore?

As I write this it looks like
START will pass soon
don't worry about Russia
they couldn't even beat us to the moon

I'm not used to the federal government
doing so much so quickly
this Congress spent its first 22 months
abdicating responsibility so slickly

Frankly, I'm impressed
with the savvy of the President
some tough words for his own party
and now he's everyone's favorite D.C. resident

But success in politics is fickle
and this could all go awry
as Republicans remind their base
that he's still a black guy

For now, with everyone bitching
on the left and on the right
I hope the President understands
he must be doing something right