One Super Prediction

Before I get to what happens next Sunday, here are some things I learned from the championship games.

The Jets offense is a catastrophe. Actually, I didn't learn that, it's been that way as long as I can remember. Good plays always look like a coincidence, they're constantly disorganized, I always know what they're running next. They need to fire (and possibly incarcerate) everyone who has ever coached offense for that team and start from scratch.

I'm so tired of hearing about the Roethlisbozo. If the Steeler defense somehow won them a game in which The Bozo went 1 for 20 for 12 yards with 5 interceptions, the sports media would spend the next week telling me how that one completion came at the perfect time and how The Bozo always knows when to step up. I thought Tebow was the new Favre, maybe I was wrong.

The internet has officially ruined sports media too. Jay Cutler's knee injury, which basically became the sports equivalent of Watergate for a day and a half, proved that sports journalism has become the same as every other kind of journalism - just tell everyone what famous people are tweeting and let the magic happen.

Alright, let's get on with it. As usual, for someone who watched something like 200 hours of football this season, I seem to have learned very little. For gambling purposes, anything you read here should be quickly forgotten.

First Impression:
My very first thought for a pick was this. If the Bozo can manage to not assault anyone between now and the superbowl, than I like the Steelers. If he's in custody by the time next Sunday rolls around, I like Green Bay. So really, my first instinct was, it's a toss up.

Offenses - Passing Game:
Clear advantage to Green Bay. Better QB, better wide-outs, better protection. The Bozo can probably hit one deep ball to Mike Wallace at some point, but Rodgers can hit one to Greg Jennings and another to James Jones. Rodgers is also more accurate and less prone to mistakes, while The Bozo is less accurate and more prone to felonies.

Offenses - Running Game:
The Packers can't run the ball at all, which is handy because you can't run against Pittsburgh anyway. I actually think they can turn this weakness into a strength, because they know they can't run and they won't spend the first half banging their heads against the wall trying, like, say, a certain team from New Jersey recently did. Pittsburgh has a clear running advantage, but with their O-line pretty banged up, I'm not sure how much they can use it.

Defenses:
I have a feeling we're going to spend the next week hearing about how this game is about the Green Bay offense vs. the Pittsburgh defense. You wanna know a secret? The Green Bay defense is just as good as Pittsburgh's. The Packers only gave up 8 more points this season than Pittsburgh did, they get great pressure, they force turnovers and they're generally difficult to play against.

On the other hand, I'm not sure the Steeler D is quite as dominant as people want them to be. Bad first half against Baltimore, bad second half against the Jets, destroyed by New England earlier in the season. When I look at their schedule, I'm not blown away by who they really held down. Holding teams like Oakland and Carolina to 3 points doesn't really knock my socks off.

I'm calling the defensive battle a draw.

Quarterback Ability to (allegedly) Sexually Assault People:
Clear advantage to Pittsburgh here. Aaron Rodgers has shown no aptitude in this area. This might turn out to be useful. During the game, The Bozo will try to throw touchdowns on the Green Bay defense, and they'll say "no, no, don't throw touchdowns on us", and they'll try to stop him, but he'll keep trying anyway. After the game, he'll say they secretly wanted him to throw touchdowns on him.

Prediction:
I'm actually not sure this game will be that close. Maybe it's just wishful thinking and how much I dislike The Bozo. Maybe I spent too much time watching the Packers this season because they had my fantasy D and top WR. Whatever the reasons, Green Bay just kind of looks like a better team to me. Plus, I think playing inside really favors the Packers, I'm not sure I'd like them so much if there wasn't a roof on this game.

Packers 30, Steelers 13.

From Time To Time

If you don't follow politics, you might not know that, in the recently discovered spirit of civility, some Democrats and Republicans will be sitting together during the State of the Union address. Basically, we're getting all the fun of a Presidential address mixed with all the awkwardness of a junior high school dance. Sounds like fun to me.

Before we start, I watched the pre-speech coverage on MSNBC, no more Keith Olbermann. I didn't always agree with Keith, but I've always liked Keith. Yes, Olbermann is very liberal and presented the news with a very clear slant, but he always started with the facts and then colored them to fit what he was trying to say. If the clowns at Fox were willing to at least start in reality, I'd be able to watch their channel for more than five minutes without laughing my ass off or yelling at my television machine.

OK. Ready? 3...2...1...President! (I know that's not how they actually introduced him, but I think my way is better)

While the President is making the traditional three hour walk from the entrance of the chamber to the podium, one quick note. Last year I checked out before the Republican response. This year? Hell no. Why? Because this year, we're not just getting a Republican response, the tea idiots are doing their own response. And do you know who they got to do it? Michele Bachmann! I can't miss that.

I thought Boehner was gonna cry when the President started off by congratulating him. PS...Boehner isn't nearly as orange as people keep saying he is. Even money says he and Biden are passing a flask back and forth. Seriously, I wouldn't let those two sit together, they look like trouble. The President may have to threaten to turn this speech right around and go home.

Hey, um, the President forgot to start by telling us that the state of our union is strong. How am I supposed to know what the state of our union is? Is it strong? just OK? craptastic? funky? We have no idea.

It's probably not a good sign that this year's depressing first ten minutes sound a lot like last year's depressing first ten minutes. But at least I learned that China is now the home of the world's fastest computer. It's amazing what child labor and political prisoners can build with the right motivation.

Sorry, but I have to say this. I'm so tired of hearing how America is "the light of the world" and "built on an idea". It's a great place to live, and I really like it here, but it's not Neverland. I think we need to work on being a little less pleased with ourselves, and the President just made my point for me by saying "we're the nation of Facebook". Oh, he meant that as a good thing? Nevermind.

"We'll fund the Apollo projects of our time" says the President, which are apparently renewable energy projects. This is why we're not getting anywhere. Kennedy was sending people to the moon, Obama wants to build solar panels. And he wants to do it by eliminating tax cuts for oil companies. Also, unicorns for everyone!

The President said "only parents can turn the TV off". He added, "not right now though, this is important".

Maybe it's just because I have no soul, but these inspiring stories about Michigan roofing brothers and some high school in Denver that got better just give me a headache. And I just saw Biden and Boehner laughing. I told you not to let them sit together, they may already be drunk.

In the middle of all these boring human interest stories, I'm pretty sure the President just said he wants 100,000 new teachers. That sounds like a pretty good idea, what exactly are we planning to pay them with?

John McCain and John Kerry are sitting together, clearly talking about losing Presidential elections and trying to figure out how either one of them ever lost to George W. Bush.

I just heard something about high speed rail for the second year in a row. I don't get our fascination with high speed rail. Chris Matthews has been talking about it all week and how you can get from Rome to Venice in an hour. How about figuring out a way for me to fly without spending three hours in security? To my point, the President just joked that high speed rail can be "faster than flying, without the pat down". HAHAHA...of course that joke only works until some asshole sneaks a bomb onto a train.

I'm noticing a lot of sneak attacks from the President tonight. He was just rambling for a while about regulations and what-not, and then suddenly we were talking about health care. The Democrats were up applauding before the Republicans even knew what hit them. Arrrggghh. Stop mentioning random people. I know it tests well in focus groups, but that only serves to remind me of what gullible idiots people are.

Now we're talking about a five-year spending freeze (not gonna happen), defense spending cuts (definitely not gonna happen), a bipartisan solution to social security (really not gonna happen) and asking millionaires to give up their tax breaks (absolutely not gonna happen).

It's fun having a Republican Speaker sitting behind the President, because you can watch him and you immediately know where the Republicans stand on things. For example, Republicans are for a simpler tax code, as long as it in no way raises taxes on rich people. Also, Republicans are definitely not for competent government.

After the President's pledge to veto any bills with earmarks, Biden was openly making faces at people in the crowd.

"American Muslims are also a part of our American family", said the President. Boehner didn't look convinced. Actually, Boehner always looks like that when he claps, like he's trying to get the taste of shit out of his mouth. Maybe that's just what his face looks like.

The President is spending an awful lot of time on foreign policy, and not just the generic "we will defeat terrorism, although I have no earthly idea how" stuff. He even mentioned two African countries. Later, Michele Bachmann will attempt to find Africa on a map (spoiler alert: it doesn't go well, but in her defense, she may believe Africa is a liberal myth).

Seriously, I think someone bet Obama he couldn't make Boehner cry. He lost that bet, but luckily, he won his secondary bet by making Biden laugh at inappropriate times and generally look goofy.

Right at the end, he finally said the state of our union is strong. I was hoping for funky. He also said, "we do big things". Well, we used to anyway. Truthfully, this wasn't my favorite Obama speech. He still seems convinced that Republicans will like him someday if he just says enough things they like.

Fun note from right after the speech. On Fox, Brit Hume suggested we're at a unique time in history in terms of public anxiety. Yes, Fox News anchor. If only we could figure out how the public got so anxious, it's a real mystery.

Next up, the Republican response from Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. I wonder if he'll mention the Packers (actually, he didn't, good for him). I'll just give you the bullet points:
debt = bad
health care = bad
regulation = bad
tax cuts = super awesome
founders = even awesomer
Then, Congressman Ryan listed 10 things he believes the government should be doing. The first six were just different ways of saying defense/security. The ninth one was basically just tax cuts, and then we were back to debt.

Hey! they're not gonna show that idiot Bachmann on TV! WTF! Why should I have to go to some website to hear what will definitely be the most entertaining speech of the night? Even Fox wouldn't broadcast it. Boooooo!!!!!! I've been had!

Right

I've been quiet for a few weeks. Sometimes it takes me a while to get a thought all the way together, or at least together enough to write something. The recent talk about civility in politics finally pulled together a thought I've had pieces of for a while now. It starts and ends with Congressman Steve Cohen.

In case you missed it, Congressman Cohen compared the tactics of the Republican party with regard to the health care debate to the tactics of nazi propaganda ace Joseph Goebbels (apparently pronounced Gerbels, because the nazis also hated spelling, and R's I guess). Lovely work by the Congressman, way to be a grown up. We'll get back to him later.

While listening to the post-Tuscon shooting media bonanza,(liberals blaming conservatives, conservatives scrambling to defend themselves, everyone talking about being nicer to each other) I was reminded of something that's been concerning me for a while now. At this point in history, the Republican party, and really, most of the conservative side of our political debate, is intellectually bankrupt.

In the wake of the recent shooting, I heard no less than three conservatives on Fox tell me "guns don't kill people, people kill people". OK, but can we at least agree that people with guns are better at it? It's unbelievable to me that one of our political parties is still arguing against gun control. Guns have become a religion on the political right in this country. No compromise, no common sense, no rationality.

Where are the conservative solutions to gun violence? Thousands of people are killed by firearms every year in this country, you can't just point to the Constitution and say "it won't let us do anything, sorry". How about a 28th amendment repealing the 2nd amendment? Nice and constitutional. Or, how about we just stop ignoring the first part of the 2nd amendment? Or, how about a tax cut for not owning a gun? Republicans love tax cuts (I was joking about that when I wrote it, but then I thought about it for a few minutes and it might be our best shot).

I'm not saying just take everyone's guns away right now and that's the answer. I don't know what the long term answer is. I'm saying, if you're not a cop, you don't need a gun, but we've got two political parties, and the one on the right basically thinks gun ownership is an American birthright. That's my point. But hey, maybe if you just keep talking about the second amendment, people will just stop getting shot one day.

(Sidenote: Don't get me started on needing guns for hunting. Tricking a wild animal out into the open so you can shoot it in the face for shits and giggles isn't any less barbaric just because it's a family tradition and your great-grandpappy used to do it.)

A few years ago now, I watched one of the earliest debates for the Republican nomination in 2008, back when there were something like 39 people still in the race. The moderator asked them who believed in evolution. I think three of them raised their hands. People on the right do the same thing with climate change science, responding to facts and verifiable data by simply claiming not to believe in it. Science isn't Tinkerbell, we don't all have to clap to make it real. Reality doesn't require you to believe in it, it's just there.

I'd like to have two parties working together to see if they can come up with smart solutions on energy and climate change. Instead, we've got one party coming up with stupid ideas like cap and trade and the other party pretending the problems aren't real. I'm not sure that's going to get us anywhere, but if you just keep saying it's not real, maybe it'll go away.

The story on economics is similar. Every time we start arguing about the economy, Democrats start quoting economists while Republicans go back to Reagan's made-up bullshit economic theory, which has somehow become the economic theory of the entire party. Reaganomics only works to destroy the middle class, and Reagan already took care of that, so it's pretty much useless now. We keep cutting taxes, the economy keeps getting crappier, but maybe if you just keep saying tax cuts create jobs it'll start to happen.

Then there's health care, and we start circling back to Congressman Cohen and the nexus of right-wing stupidity and political civility. I think we all agree that nobody is Hitler except Hitler, and nobody is a nazi except nazis. The media got so worked up about how mean Steve Cohen was being that they mostly forgot to point out that, nazi references aside, the Congressman's point was 100% valid.

The whole Republican strategy on health care has been to come up with lies and keep saying them on TV until they become true. "Death panels", the "government take over of health care", the whole thing about how people in Canada can't ever see a doctor (which is double ridiculous because even if it were true, the bill the Democrats passed doesn't resemble the Canadian health care system at all). Does any of this unbelievable bullshit sound familiar? Has the Republican party even floated a credible counter-proposal? You want a free market solution to health care? So do I. You got one? Me neither.

Why does this bother me so much? Why I am so tough on Republicans? It bothers so much because the two party system only works if both parties are making good faith efforts to do what's best for the country. Right now, I don't know if either party is. For every Republican who's basically just a lackey for an oil company or a bank, there's a Democrat who just does the bidding of a union (or an oil company, or a bank. Seriously, the two parties are barely bought and paid for by different interests at this point).

So, why so tough on Republicans? Because I think they can be better. I think I'd vote for the party of Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt if it was still the party of Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. I want to vote for candidates who believe in limited government, but who also know that government has a role beyond blowing stuff up in other countries. I want to vote for candidates who believe in personal liberty and responsibility, but who also understand that personal liberty isn't absolute when 300 million people are all trying to have a society (Sidenote number 2: I'd also like to vote for an atheist for President, but I doubt I'll live that long). I'm tough on Republicans because I want to be a Republican, but I can't, because Republican leaders are morons who spend their days trying to come up with the best right-wing sound bite.

Why am I so frustrated? I'm frustrated because factual accuracy has become optional in political arguments. I'm frustrated because politicians are worrying about civility, and that's fine, but nobody cares who's correct. I want a government in which being correct wins you the argument, and I want a Republican party in which being correct is more important than being right.

Playoff Picks and Random Comments

Before I start with my NFL playoff picks and some other random NFL comments, I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate the baseball writers on putting Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame. It only took them 2 and 14 tries respectively. If you want my extended thoughts on Alomar's case, scroll a few paragraphs down into this thing I wrote right around this time last year:
http://somethingclever13.blogspot.com/2010/01/hot-stove-reloaded.html

OK, so, first a disclaimer. I couldn't be worse at picking football games. I don't know why. This season, I had the redzone network (awesome, by the way. The best TV invention since color. I was so disappointed I couldn't get Direct TV and Sunday ticket in my apartment building, but redzone is like 100 times better, it does the channel flipping for you), so I'm hoping that makes me better informed this time around, but I wouldn't bet on it. Seriously, if anyone reading this is thinking about considering my picks when they bet on the games, you've been warned.

New Orleans vs. Seattle
Prediction: Saints 91, Seahawks 3
OK, OK...91 might be a little high, but I'm hearing people on TV and the radio all week talking about how Seattle has nothing to lose, how they're so tough at home, how this game will be closer than you think. Really? In two home games against playoff teams this year, Seattle got hammered by a combined score of 76-42, and that doesn't even count the 41-7 home loss to the Giants (that's right, and the Giants are watching from home this weekend).

The five home wins? Arizona, Carolina, San Francisco, St. Louis and San Diego (week three, and we all know San Diego doesn't start trying until at least week five). Not exactly murderer's row. I'll take the Saints, and if I did bet on football, you couldn't set the line high enough to keep me away.

Speaking of the NFC West, how many times in one season can I tune into the same NFL team, look at the QB and think "who the f*ck is that guy?" Answer, courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals: Three, and I'm not even counting Derek Anderson. This whole division was a mess. The fact that Seattle gets a home game is a catastrophe. I heard someone on the radio joke that Pete Carroll's Seahawks couldn't win the Rose Bowl this year. I'm not sure they could win the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Ravens 24
Baltimore's defense ain't what it used to be, and unlike Seattle, Kansas City really is tough at home. Their only home loss was last week's inexplicable disaster against Oakland. Either you believe that was a fluke, in which case KC wins this game close, or you believe last week was a sign of things to come, in which case Baltimore wins by 40. I'll take the Chiefs.

Speaking of the AFC West, the legend of Saint Tebow is growing exponentially. Much like god, Christians believe in Tim Tebow's talent even though nobody can actually see it (What?! Don't make that face at me! This isn't one of those times when I say god isn't real, I'm just saying you can't see him, that's what the whole faith thing is all about).

And speaking of the AFC North, can I be the one millionth person to make a joke about how you can't build your team around two aging wide-outs with reality TV shows? Can I be the two millionth person to realize Carson Palmer is completely finished? I just read a story on ESPN.com about how Marvin Lewis had demands the Bengals needed to meet if they wanted him to stay. Seriously? What was his pitch? Just give him five more years and he'll get them to the brink of mediocrity?

Read the above paragraph and smile, because for a while it looked like the Bengals might really be going somewhere, but now I feel confident in saying, the Bengals are back, baby! It really wouldn't be December without the chance to watch the Bengals pathetically limp toward the end of another disappointing season.

Indianapolis vs. New York
Prediction: Jets 31, Colts 23
I don't trust the Jets, and their defense isn't as good as it's supposed to be. Every time a team gets into 3rd and long against the Jets, the commentators tell me how the Jets are the one team you don't want to be in 3rd and long against. Then they blitz 7 guys and give up the first down. Having said that, I really don't like the Colts, and there's just something fishy about Indy this season. They've never looked right.

Speaking of the AFC South, is it just me, or is Jeff Fisher the most overrated coach in any sport? 6 winning seasons out of 16, one superbowl appearance, no championships. What am I missing? He already ruined Vince Young, please fire him before he squanders Chris Johnson's prime.

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 41, Eagles 31
This was the toughest one. The truth is, I have no idea what Michael Vick is going to do, and neither does anyone else. Could he win this game by himself? You bet your ass he could. But Aaron Rodgers is pretty good too, and while the Green Bay defense should be good enough to slow Vick down a little, I don't see how the Eagles slow Rodgers down.

Speaking of the NFC East and the Eagles, I have no desire to inhabit a world in which Rex Grossman is a better QB than Donovan McNabb, but here we are. I imagine Rex is as surprised as the rest of us. If you're Mike Shanahan, how fast would you take a do-over on taking this job? It's going to be a long however-many years it takes Mike Shanahan to get himself fired in Washington.

And speaking of Pennsylvania football, how often do you think Roger Goodell wakes up in a cold sweat from a nightmare about a Steelers vs. Eagles superbowl? Two weeks of press conferences and stories featuring Michael "big bow wow" Vick and Ben "no means maybe" Roethlisbozo. At least Vick spent some time in jail, but I still understand if some animal rights groups want to come to superbowl week and yell stuff at him. I just hope some people will come yell at the Bozo too.

Maybe if I get a couple of these right I'll do more picks next week, but for now, I still like Green Bay to get to the superbowl if they get past Vick, because I don't trust the Falcons or the Bears. In the AFC, I'm giving up on the Ravens, I can't see a way to pick against New England right now. In fact, I had the Packers winning the whole thing when I made my pre-season picks, but I think I like the Pats now, which probably means they'll find a way to lose to the Jets next week.