Sticks and Stones

It seems like a weird time for our politics. Lots of anger and shouting and name calling. OK, that doesn't sound all that weird, but it seems to be turned up quite a bit lately. Some people are worried about all this rhetoric being a preamble to something. I don't blame people for worrying.

To be more specific, I don't blame genuinely worried people. On the other hand, people exploiting threats for political gain should find something more constructive to do with themselves. Maybe they should take up pot smoking. It'll totally mellow them out, and they'll most likely lose their jobs so we won't have to deal with them anymore.

Political assassination is a scary thing, because it only takes one lunatic to take a shot at someone. I think threats and violence against big important people like Presidents and Congressmen, or even just celebrities, anyone who has serious security, remind us how unsafe us regular folks are sometimes. So I don't blame people for being worried.

Me? I'm not that worried. I don't think something bad is about to happen. Or, more accurately, I don't think something bad is any more likely to happen now than it normally would be. This strikes me more as a Republican temper tantrum, mixed with the loud, obnoxious racism, homophobia and general intolerance of the tea idiots. Put them together and it looks kind of scary.

But really, the tea people aren't violent, they're just super angry and not terribly bright. And the Republicans aren't violent either. They're mad because they lost an election, and then another one. Then, they really thought they had this health care thing won, and they lost that too. I think this is just the political equivalent of Republicans kicking the wall and calling the Democrats big fat poopyheads. They'll get over it, we just need to get them some ice cream, or take them to McDonald's for dinner, that always did it for me.

Speaking of poopyheads, I have a question for Republicans. Every once in a while, I'll hear some TV bobblehead complain about President Obama's secret plan to redistribute the wealth. They paint him as some kind of evil, big government Robinhood, using taxes and health care to steal from the rich and give to the poor. This, of course, is what makes him a socialist who's destroying America.

Here's my question. Where were all the so-called conservatives when your hero Ronald Reagan was dismantling the middle class with his ridiculous economic theory and redistributing what little wealth they had to rich people? I don't like redistribution of wealth either way, because that's not what the government is supposed to be doing. But it seems to me that a lot of the people calling themselves "conservatives" today are OK with redistributing wealth as long as it's moving upward.

The interesting thing is how many regular, everyday people seem to be all for it. How do you get regular people so angry about making it harder for insurance companies to screw us? Or regulating banks? Or taxing the wealthy? Two theories. The first is the old myth of the American dream. Everyone's planning for the day they get rich. That's an old theory and still a perfectly plausible one. But I have a better idea.

Stockholm syndrome. The insurance companies and the banks and all the other big corporations are holding us hostage. They threaten to set the economy on fire if we don't bail them out. They threaten to raise premiums if health care reform passes. They threaten to lay people off and raise prices if taxes go up. If the government upsets the status quo, the corporations punish the people, that's the threat. And so many of the people buy right into it, but it's not because they're stupid. Being a hostage sucks, you can't blame people for begging the cops to give the hostage takers whatever they want, and you can't blame people for identifying with their captors, it happens all the time.

I guess this means I can't call the tea people stupid anymore (damn, I was really enjoying that). No more calling them tea idiots, or stupid ignorant racist homophobes. Wait, I can still call some of them racist homophobes, that part doesn't really have anything to do with the rest of this, some of those people just really don't like black people (and Arabs, and Muslims, and the gays, oh and Mexicans, we're about to start talking about immigration reform again, I'm pretty sure I can guess where the tea people will stand). But I can't call them stupid anymore, and I won't.

And, honestly, they aren't stupid. They're mostly regular, hard-working people who want what's best for the country. They look stupid sometimes because they're getting all riled up and mislead by the likes of Beck and Hannity and Palin and Bachmann. Ah...I feel so much better, that last sentence just reminded me that I still have plenty of people to call stupid.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - AL West

Two divisions today, lots of baseball to talk about, so let's get right into it, except for this one quick comment. Am I the only one who's already bored with the NCAA tournament? I feel like this happens every year. The first weekend is always the best weekend. There's just so many games and upsets and schools you've never heard of before. This week I didn't even look in on the tournament until The Office and 30 Rock were over. I don't have a solution or a suggestion here, it's just the way it is. OK, let's talk about my new favorite baseball division.

Seattle Mariners
The Oklahoma City Thunder look like the early years of the Jordan Bulls right now, as in, not this year, but wait a couple of years and look out. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are just awful, they weren't the worst team in the NFL this year, but they sure looked like it whenever I saw them. The people of Seattle clearly deserve better, and like a knight in shining armor, here come the Mariners.

Off-season: Lee, Figgins, Bradley, Kotchman, Garko, re-signing King Felix. If you read my hot stove blogs, you already know how I feel about Seattle's excellent winter exploits. If you didn't, what are you waiting for?

Line-up: As much as I like this team, this line-up is still missing power. Having said that, Ichiro and Figgins give them so much speed and OBP at the top, I don't think they'll need a ton of power. Jose Lopez is an underrated and still pretty young guy and Milton Bradley can hit for as long as he can stay sane and healthy. This team will score just enough.

Pitching: When I say score just enough, that's with the understanding that they won't need much. King Felix and Cliff Lee could easily be the best one-two punch around. If and when Erik Bedard gets back, this won't be a team any line-up looks forward to facing. I like Ian Snell too. David Aardsma is a solid closer and has the most fun name in baseball (try it, Aaaarrrrrrdsma! I told you it would be fun). Lots of close wins for this team.

Final Thought: AAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRDSMA!

Prediction: First place, probably not enough offense to get past the first round of the playoffs. But let me tell you something. If the Yankees get the Mariners in round one, and all three of Seattle's top starters are healthy and pitching well, I will be terrified. Terrified!

Los Angeles Angels
I've never liked this team. They gave us rally monkeys and thunder sticks. They ruined Barry Bonds' best shot at a title. They've changed their name 7 or 8 times. It seems like they always beat the Yankees. So I was all ready, and frankly a little excited, to pick this team for third or fourth place and a down year. Then I looked at their roster and it actually looks pretty good. Stupid reality, always ruining my fun.

Off-season: The Angels lost their ace and their lead-off hitter, and didn't really replace either of them. I do like Joel Pinero for them, Fernando Rodney too. I'm not so sure about the Matsui signing. Matsui's games played for the last five seasons go like this: 162, 51, 143, 93 and 142. For what it's worth, that pattern doesn't bode well for 2010. Overall, this winter was a minus for the Angels, but not as bad as I thought.

Line-up: The Angels can hit. I really like Brandon Wood, and Howie Kendrick can win a batting title someday if he ever plays a full season. You want a big bat? How about Kendry Morales? (.304, 34 HR, 108 RBI last year) On opening day, this team has a great line-up. Here's my concern. Between old guys and brittle guys, I count six opening day starters who are just as likely to miss huge chunks of the season as they are to play a full healthy one. If they lose two or three of those guys, this offense goes from excellent to ordinary.

Pitching: The Scott Kazmir trade last summer was interesting, I'm not sure what the Rays were thinking there, but I know I like what the Angels got. I like Pinero and I like Ervin Santana if he stays healthy. As a Yankee fan, I can't bring myself to trust anyone named Weaver, but this rotation should still be pretty solid. The bullpen is a little more iffy. I said I like Fernando Rodney, but he has trouble staying healthy too. Brian Fuentes saved 48 games last year, but he also blew 7 saves and pitched to a 3.93 ERA, not very impressive. I see the Angels losing a lot of games late.

Final Thought: I'm really not sure how this team let John Lackey get away. I've never liked him as an ace, but a team needs an ace, and Lackey was the Angels' ace. I look at this team now, and I see a bunch of pitchers that don't scare anyone.

Prediction: Second place. They could win the division if they stay healthy, but the lack of an ace would kill them in the playoffs.

Texas Rangers
I'd be willing to sell Texas to Mexico for, literally, any price. It is both our hottest and our stupidest state. I don't know if either of those opinions are actually backed up by anything, but in true Texas fashion, I'm just saying whatever seems like it might be true. Dear Texas, I'll stop calling you stupid when you stop screwing up everyone's text books. Love, Sean.

Off-season: This is another team whose off-season I've already talked about quite a bit. To recap, Rich Harden and Vlad Guerrero are two more guys who may or may not be standing by June. I'm willing to buy the possibility of a big year from one of them, but not both. Of course, I didn't get to say what I think about the Ron Washington cocaine story. As usual, I think that I don't understand why I'm supposed to care.

Line-up: Lots to like in this line-up, other than Chris Davis' awful .238 batting average and .284 OBP last year. This team has speed (Andrus, Borbon), guys who can hit for high averages (Young, Hamilton, Guerrero) and plenty of power (Cruz, Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis when he's not striking out). Keep an eye out for Justin Smoak at first base, but even if they keep Chris Davis there all year and he strikes out 400 times, this team should score a ton of runs.

Pitching: Texas is stacked with good young arms. If they all deliver, Texas can win the division. You know how I feel about counting on young guys though, plus Harden has looked pretty pedestrian this spring. I hardly ever put any stock in spring numbers, but if I'm Texas, I would have wanted to see something from Harden that tells me he's ready to be healthy and effective. I like the Texas bullpen. Frank Francisco is a solid closer with a cool name and he's got a good group of set-up guys. Lots of upside here, but pitching in Texas tends to wear down over the summer, and I'm predicting that again until I see something different.

Final Thought: I know I said I didn't care about Ron Washington's cocaine story, and I don't, except to say this. Don't you think Josh Hamilton's team, of all teams, would want to keep drugs as far away from their team as possible?

Prediction: Third place. Like I said, lots of upside here with a team that can definitely score. The playoffs aren't out of the question, I just think Texas isn't the best bet, not this year anyway.

Oakland Athletics
Have you ever noticed the elephant on the A's uniforms? Apparently, this goes back over 100 years to John McGraw suggesting the A's franchise was a white elephant. I can't decide if trash talking sucked in the past, or if it was awesome.

Off-season: The A's popped up out of almost nowhere to sign Ben Sheets. They also added Coco Crisp and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Typical quiet winter for Oakland. I'm interested to see what happens if Crisp plays a full, healthy season. Of course, Coco's already dealing with injuries in spring training, so I don't think I'll get my wish.

Line-up: I don't see a lot to like here. I'm trying to figure out who their best hitter is supposed to be. Jack Cust hit 25 HR's last year, but he also hit .240. Ryan Sweeney and Rajaj Davis hit for the highest averages on the team last year, but, combined, they had 9 HR's and 101 RBI in 874 at-bats. Kurt Suzuki looks like the best all around guy, .274, 15 HR, 88 RBI. Yikes. Take the under on A's games, is what I'm saying.

Pitching: If Ben Sheets has a healthy year, he can still be an ace. I'm less sold on Justin Duchscherer's ability to return to his 2008 form, but you never know. Like Texas, this team has some promising young arms that could produce. Unlike Texas, it doesn't look like Oakland's young arms will find a whole lot of run support behind them. Andrew Bailey is a strong closer, but they probably won't have a lot of leads for him to protect.

Final Thought: This team has moved west twice in its long history. I think it's time for a third move. Goodbye California, hello Hawaii A's.

Prediction: Last place. Just not enough offense. The A's jump up and surprise us every few years, and they were pretty competitive after the all-star break last year, so you never know. I just don't see it.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - AL Central

Continuing with the AL Central...

Chicago White Sox (AKA The Chicago Red Army)
President Obama is a White Sox fan. So, obviously, they're communists. And if you're rooting for this team, you're a communist too. I want to assure everyone that I'm not rooting for the Red Army, I'm just picking them to finish in first. It's not my fault communists are such good pitchers.

Off-season: The interesting thing about this team's off-season is that their two biggest moves for this year didn't happen in the winter, they happened last summer at the deadline. There are two kinds of baseball fans, people who believe in Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, and people who win fantasy leagues. Me? I believe. I think Juan Pierre was a nice addition too. He spent a lot of time sitting around and watching baseball in LA, so I think he's got a year or two of good baseball left in him.

Line-up: I'm not sure what the Sox were thinking when they signed Andruw Jones to be their DH. Andruw's batting averages for the last three years are .222, .158 and .214. That's not a recipe for success, even if the power did come back a little last year. Luckily, I like the rest of this line-up. I see a big year coming for Gordon Beckham. Don't surprised if Alex Rios bounces back too. I know he only hit .199 in 41 games with Chicago last year, but before that he had three straight seasons of hitting at least .290 and he averaged 82 RBI over those same three years in a bad Toronto line-up. Mark Teahan's a solid addition too, he's 28 and this is the best team he's ever been on, he could have a career year. Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin should have better years too, if Quentin can stay healthy. I like this team to score plenty of runs.

Pitching: Like I said, I believe in Jake Peavy. I like John Danks and Gavin Floyd too. Mark Buehrle is a little overrated for me if you're calling him a #1, but I can live with him as a #2 behind Peavy. Bobby Jenks isn't a top-notch closer, but he's workable. Most of his peripherals stayed about the same last year, and his strike-outs actually went up. It was the home run jump from 3 to 9 that really hurt him. That could be a bad sign, but it could also be a fluke. And don't forget about J.J. Putz. He was a dominant closer in '06 and '07, if he can get the Met stink off of himself, he can be a solid 8th inning guy.

Final Thought: This team may be a bat short. I like Chicago's line-up, but they have a lot of "what ifs". Like, what if Carlos Quentin gets hurt again? What if Alex Rios can't get it back? What if Juan Pierre is suddenly done or can't handle playing everyday? The good news? Chicago has some trade-worthy talent in their system and Ken Williams isn't afraid to deal it away.

Prediction: First place, probably a first round playoff loss to whatever AL east team wins the wild card. They'll need someone other than Peavy to step up and be lights out in October to have a chance, and I don't think that happens.

Detroit Tigers
A few years ago, I compared Detroit to the sad little British towns that every Dickens novel seems to take place in. My buddy Dave, who I had been there with, responded by saying "yeah, it was the worst of times, it was the worst of times". I don't know if things have gotten any better there since then (I'm guessing probably not, since I was there in April 2007 and the economy has since, ya know, imploded). I bring this up because I usually root for Detroit teams if they're contending for a title and the team I'm a fan of is out of it. I don't think they'll win the division, but I'd like them to. (especially since they'd be beating Obama's communist baseball army)

Off-season: Christmas came late for Detroit, they didn't pick up Johnny Damon until late February. Sounds like a pretty crappy Christmas too, right? Well, maybe not. I wouldn't expect Johnny to do a whole lot of running, or catching, or throwing. But everything I've seen tells me he can still hit. His 24 home runs last year tied a career high and his 82 RBI were the most for him since 2004. Those numbers will come down a bit leaving Yankee Stadium and that great line-up, but I'm still fairly convinced a healthy Damon can give you .270, 17HR, 75RBI.

Line-up: Having said that about Damon, he won't replace the guy they lost in their biggest off-season move, and I have a lot of concerns about this line-up. I'm not sold on Austin Jackson being ready, and between him and Scott Sizemore, it's hard not to see at least one of them being back in the minors by June. Magglio Ordonez's home run total has gone from 28 to 21 to 9 over the last three seasons, so while he can still hit (.310 last year), from where are they planning to get power? Outside of Miguel Cabrera (3 straight 30+ HR seasons and 6 straight with 100+ RBI), I don't see any scary bats. The Tigers will have their big days when everyone gets two hits, but they'll also have some bad days with plenty of runners left on base.

Pitching: Justin Verlander's last three seasons look like this:
18-6, 3.66 ERA, 183 K's, 67 BB's
11-17, 4.84 ERA, 163 K's, 87 BB's
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 269 K's, 63 BB's
Which one of these things is not like the other? Was 2008 a fluke? Can Verlander have two good years in a row again like he did in '06 and '07? I'm not sure what to expect, but it looks like he's moving in the right direction. The rest of this rotation doesn't impress me, I'm expecting a little bit of a step back from Rick Porcello. And once again, the Tigers have been duped by a closer with lots of saves but so-so peripheral numbers. I don't expect them to be too happy with Jose Valverde. A healthy Joel Zumaya can still be a good 8th inning guy or closer, but finding a healthy Zumaya is like finding a healthy leprechaun.

Final Thought: One of the things I really like about the Tigers is the amount of legit young talent they have. I expect this team to keep getting better over the next few years. So while I don't have them in the playoffs this year, I think we'll see them there soon.

Prediction: Second place and no post-season. They could easily hop over Chicago if their rotation exceeds expectations, but I don't think it will.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins get huge bonus points from me for moving their baseball outdoors where baseball belongs. I think I saw a game at the Metrodome once. My uncle lived in Minnesota for a while, I'm pretty sure we went to a game one of the times we visited him. I was probably about nine years old. Even then, I knew the Metrodome was an abomination. I expect the baseball gods to give the Twins at least five extra wins this year.

Off-season: The Twins aren't usually the most active team in the winter, unless they're unloading players, but Minnesota was actually pretty feisty this year. Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome and J.J. Hardy are all interesting pick-ups for a team that already has the middle of the order all set. I would have preferred a right-handed bat over Thome, maybe Jermaine Dye. Of course, the most important off-season event for the Twins just happened. Joe Mauer just signed an eight year/$184 million contract. As a Yankee fan, all I can say is, oh well.

Line-up: Lots to like here. Mauer and Morneau(196 combined RBI last year in spite of missing 51 combined games) anchor a line-up that's solid all the way around. It's easy to build a good line-up when you've got the 3-4 part squared away. They've got five people for three outfield positions and a DH spot, so the question is, who sits? Looks like it'll be Thome to start, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wound up being Delmon Young most days, his career has been a constant disappointment. Either way, with a good middle and more options than line-up spots, I expect this team to score.

Pitching: I don't like the Twins' pitching. Joe Nathan leaves a giant hole in the bullpen and I'm not counting on Jon Rauch to fill it (Rauch's ERA's for the last three seasons; 3.61, 4.14 and 3.60. That's not a dominant closer, that's barely passable). They say Liriano looks great, but if you don't win championships in April, you certainly don't win them in winter ball, so I'll believe it when I see it against real competition. Plus, anytime you're counting on Carl Pavano to do anything useful, you're just asking for disaster.

Final Thought: If I could have one wish from one baseball team this year, I think I'd ask the Twins for a Michelle Bachmann bobble head day. I don't really think I have to explain the fun symbolism of a little Bachmann doll with a giant empty head.

Prediction: Third place. The Twins always seem to overachieve, so don't be shocked if they find a way to win the division, I just don't know if they have the pitching.

Kansas City Royals
I definitely want to see a game in Kansas City one day. The Royals see anything you can put in your ballpark, and they raise you Kansas City BBQ and cool water fountains. Sadly, it's been about two decades since the Royals put a good team in their ballpark. Oh well, can't have it all I guess.

Off-season: The Royals added Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Jason Kendall and Josh Fields. Hmmm, umm, it's not that I don't like those four guys, I actually like all of them except for Kendall. But, I'm not sure that's all you needed to fix a last place team. They also get Alex Gordon back, and I do think that makes a difference. This team should be marginally better than last year, but that isn't really saying much.

Line-up: I expect big years from Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Jose Guillen is still a nice player when he's not doing something crazy, which actually seems to be happening less lately. I like Podsednik and Dejesus too. This is a team with a lot of nice hitters, but unless Butler or Gordon go all Barry Bonds on us, the line-up as a whole just doesn't have enough.

Pitching: I really like the Royals' pitching, especially the starters. Zack Greinke is a stud. I like one of either Luke Hochevar or Kyle Davies to have a surprisingly good year and Gil Meche is serviceable (well, he was serviceable, last year's 5.09 ERA was more terrible than serviceable, but I expect him to bounce back). Joakim Soria is one of the league's best closers (you never know when the Royals will finally trade him, but he's still there for now). Kansas City's pitching should keep them in a lot of games, good teams will have to earn the wins against them.

Final Thought: The Royals are always one of those interesting trade deadline teams. Will Joakim Soria go somewhere? Could Jose Guillen or Rick Ankiel help a contender? Unfortunately, this is probably the most exciting part of the season for Royals fans.

Prediction: Fourth place. I think Kansas City's pitching makes them better than Cleveland, but that's about it.

Cleveland Indians
It's entirely possible the Indians won't even get to finish this season. If Lebron signs with another team this summer, sports fans in Cleveland might just set the city on fire and abandon it. Would you blame them? Me neither.

Off-season: As far as I can tell, the Indians slept through most of the winter, then woke up late and signed Russell Branyan. I know it's not a big market, but this was an awful team last year with a few gaping holes. This winter would have been a good time to do something, ya know?

Line-up: I'm starting to think Grady Sizemore reminds me a lot of Carlos Beltran, the kind of guy who's good at everything but isn't great at anything. You love having guys like that on your team, but it doesn't work out so well when that guy is your best player. The rest of this line-up has too many young guys who may or may not be ready to give them anything. Lots of upside here, especially if Michael Brantley gets into the everyday line-up, but you probably won't see most of that upside for a year or two.

Pitching: Speaking of upside, I don't see a lot of it with Cleveland's pitching. There's not one guy on this entire staff that I'd say I like. Kerry Wood's already hurt and every Indians fan died a little last year when Sabathia and Lee faced off in the world series. Lots of souvenirs in Cleveland this year.

Final Thought: Major League is still the best baseball movie ever, and you Bull Durham people can't tell me any different.

Prediction: Last place, this could get ugly. This team would need big seasons from a number of unproven young guys to get anywhere near the post-season. And even then, they still don't have any pitching.

Socialism: Day One

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is the best weekend of the year, and I'm not even a huge college basketball fan. Under the circumstances, I think it was perfect timing. It was like one last great American party before everything changed. Late last night, the House of Representatives passed the health care bill, which means we're now a socialist country, and we don't get to enjoy cool American stuff like the NCAA tournament anymore. It makes perfect sense, because, when I think of socialist/marxist/communists, like say, Hitler and Stalin, I immediately think "health care".

I have to say though, my first day in the United Socialist States of America has been a little disappointing. I mean, look, I'm not happy about being a socialist now, I really liked the old America. But, I've decided to adopt a positive attitude and make the best of our new system of government. I know it's only been one day, but so far, I feel like I'm not getting what I was promised.

I still had to get up and go to work today. I didn't think I'd have to do that anymore. I was expecting the government to just send me some free money that I didn't have to work for. It's a good thing I took a day off on Friday. If I had been at work Friday, knowing socialism was coming on Sunday, I might have quit my job. Without a job or my free government money, I'd be totally screwed right now. Maybe my free money will come at the end of the week, like pay checks do. I'll be waiting.

What about President Obama's death panels? I was sure the government was going to start killing everyone's grandparents as soon as this bill was passed. So far, I don't know of anybody in my family being put to death by the government. It could be that I just don't know about it yet, but I feel like my mother would have called.

"Gee, Sean, lack of death panels doesn't seem like a reason to be disappointed". True, but we all know the death panels are coming, they were a key component of the bill. It's sort of like when you were a kid and you did something really bad. You knew your parents were going to punish you, but then they didn't right away. You spent the rest of the day terrified, just waiting for them to do something. I feel the same way now. I know the death panels are coming, I wish the President would just get it over with. Right now, we don't know who's going to die, or when, or how. This waiting seems cruel and unusual.

Speaking of death, I know for a fact that freedom died yesterday. Republicans in Congress were very clear about this. It's bad enough that I was apparently not invited to the funeral, freedom and I were pretty close, but I haven't even seen a lot of TV coverage. Fox is the only channel really talking about it, and they seem more in denial than anything else. TV covered Michael Jackson's death for like two weeks. Hell, the death of Corey Haim got a few days. Nothing for the death of freedom? I'm disappointed.

Also, since Republicans on TV have been telling me that we're heading toward European-style socialism, I was expecting something with soccer. Europeans love soccer, and I assume it's a key part of their particular brand of socialism. I was expecting something like a $1,000 check in the mail, in exchange for which I would be required to attend and enjoy soccer games. There's soccer happening outside my window right now and, well, I still hate it. Now, I haven't received my soccer subsidy yet, so maybe my feelings will change when it arrives.

What about all the slavery reparations? Glenn Beck was adamant about this bill being part of a secret plan to redistribute wealth in an effort to make reparations for slavery. Shouldn't there be a guy at my door collecting money? Maybe because my family wasn't here until the 1900's I get out of this one. That kind of makes sense, but I don't know, Glenn didn't say anything like that, and he said he was telling me the whole truth. I'll have to check the text of the bill. (Glenn, by the way, is in full tantrum mode right now, it's hilarious)

As a matter of fact, I haven't even noticed a drastic change to my health insurance yet. I think I'm still on the same plan I had last week. I thought they were sending a government bureaucrat to come stand between me and my doctor (in my case, it's an imaginary doctor, because I don't go to doctors and you can't make me). Maybe I'll try to make a doctor's appointment later this week, just to see how crazy and different it is.

I don't know. Maybe socialism is like quitting smoking. When people quit smoking, they don't just magically become 100% healthy right away, it takes a little time. Maybe I should just be patient and wait a few weeks. Or maybe this bill's full socialist effect won't happen until the Senate is done passing the reconciliation fixes. That's certainly possible.

The only other possibility is that Republicans and TV conservatives were lying to me about what was going to happen when this bill passed. No, no that's ridiculous. What kind of person would make up lies to try and defeat a bill that aims to insure over 30 million people? What kind of monster would go on TV, day after day, and hammer a health care bill just to further their own career? No, I don't think any of my TV friends would do that...

OK, OK, I've had my fun. Do I have any serious thoughts about the bill?

1) I don't love this bill, but I'll buy it as a step in the right direction. The pre-existing condition thing is solid policy. So is the part about not kicking people off their plans when they get sick. Allowing kids to stay on parents' policies longer in this economy is a nice touch too. I'm not sure why most of the other good stuff doesn't kick in until 2014, but it probably has something to do with our government being barely functional.

2) I really don't like the individual mandate. I know it's hard to affordably insure sick people without making healthy people be part of the pool. That doesn't mean I have to like it. There isn't a little fine print section at the end of the Constitution that reads "*feel free to violate this document if it makes doing what you want to do too hard". I wonder about Constitutional challenges here. I'm sure I could find something in article one, section eight to uphold this, but, as you may have noticed, I'm not actually on the Supreme Court, so what I can find doesn't matter all that much.

The only thing that blunts my problem with this is the fact that I don't feel like I've ever had a choice. I've had three jobs that provided benefits. All of them just signed me up for a plan, they didn't ask me if I wanted one. Maybe I had to ask about it, like the secret menu at in-n-out burger. Oh well.

3) I especially don't like the individual mandate without a public option. We're basically just forcing everyone to buy insurance from the companies that are already screwing us. Only now we're making it slightly harder to screw us and we're providing subsidies (for the buying, not the screwing, I think).

4) This whole abortion thing is stupid. First of all, it's apparently a nonsense debate because, for reasons I obviously don't fully understand, federal funding of abortion is already illegal. Undeterred by reality, yesterday, Congressman Mike Pence (R-Imagination Land) said it is "morally wrong" to use the tax dollars of pro-life Americans to fund abortion. Really, moron? Quoting one of my all-time favorite TV characters, "I don't know where you get the idea that taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for anything of which they disapprove. Lots of them don't like tanks, even more don't like Congress." Is it morally wrong to use the tax dollars of anti-war Americans to fund the military? Of course it isn't.

Someone should have the authority to immediately throw people like Pence out of Congress for stupidity (put that on my list of dream jobs, right near the top too). Either that, or we should send Pence, Michelle Bachmann and Steve King (not the crazy novelist, the crazy Congressman from Iowa) down to the basement of the Capitol to guard the bee whenever Congress is trying to do something serious.

Bachmann: "Duh, Mike, why are we down here?"
Pence: "Aw geez, I told you Michelle, to guard the bee."
King: "But whyyyy?"
Pence: "You guys are pathetic. No wonder Pelosi made me head bee guy."

5) Speaking of abortion, I don't understand how these Republicans can all be against giving more people health insurance. Aren't these the "right to life" people? I'm positive I've seen that on a Republican sign somewhere. Won't it be easier for people to exercise their right to life if they can, you know, stay alive?

6) My favorite part of Health Care Day (that's what I'm calling yesterday, I think it'll catch on) was MSNBC's brief coverage of tea party idiots trying, and apparently failing, to spell out the word "no" on a lawn near the Capitol building. I'm sure they got it right eventually, and MSNBC was probably just mocking them a little to gloat. It was still funny though.

On a more serious note, these tea morons have me seriously considering changing my party affiliation from Republican to Independent. I'm still up in the air about it. Congratulations tea people, you are so ridiculous, so blatantly racist and ignorant, you've got me considering leaving a party that I was willing to share with fundamentalist christians.

7) How many times in the next seven or eight months do you think a Republican somewhere will say the bill was passed in the middle of the night or under the cover of darkness (spooooky!)?

8) Finally, is it possible that the Democrats did something (gulp) politically smart? Follow me on this. Sometime early last week, the Democrats started talking about using this deem and pass procedure, which would have allowed them to deem the Senate bill passed through the House without actually having a direct vote on the Senate bill. Republicans freaked out, and rightfully so. We spent the rest of the week listening to Republicans complain about the process.

Then, Saturday, the Democrats announced they'd just pass the Senate bill with a regular vote. It almost seems like they intentionally tricked the Republicans into spending the last week of debate arguing about a process issue that never actually came up instead of making points about the weaknesses of the actual bill. This left the Republican message a little jumbled going into the vote. I think the Democrats just won a political chess match. Politically competent Democrats? Hold me, I'm afraid.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL West

Two very quick comments before we get to the baseball. First, obviously, I couldn't be happier about Tiger Woods returning at the Masters. I hope he wins by 200 strokes. I hope he wins by so much that other golfers are forced to consider adultery as a strategy for improving their games.

Second, I didn't do picks for the NCAA tournament, but if you're looking for a surprise team to go to the sweet 16, maybe even the elite 8, look at Murray State. They came in with 30 wins, they beat Vanderbilt yesterday (not a fluke, they're a better team), almost beat California on the road in November and they pounded 15 seed Morgan State in ESPN's bracket busters last month. Of course, my bracket is already in shambles by now (thanks Georgetown), so you probably shouldn't listen to me. Anyway...

Arizona Diamondbacks
I own an Arizona Diamondbacks jersey. I'm not sure I could tell you why, especially since the Diamondbacks are responsible for one of the most crushing Yankees loses in my lifetime. I think I just liked the black and red color scheme. I wore it out once, it happened to be a day the Mets were playing the D'Backs, that was a mistake. It has since been retired to the far reaches of my closet.

Off-season: This was a tough division to pick, I'm not wild about any of these teams. I bring that up now because the Arizona off-season is what put them on top for me. I really like Edwin Jackson for them. Last year wasn't a fluke, he was a name brand prospect for a while and it seems like he's finally figured it out. I expect another good season from Edwin, better even because I think we won't get the late season slide again this year. They added Adam LaRoche (20+ HR, 80+ RBI, .270+ AVG every year since 2006) and Kelly Johnson. Heilman's a solid bullpen addition too. Also, don't forget they get Conor Jackson and Brandon Webb back this year after basically getting nothing from them last year (that's not entirely true, what they got from Jackson last year was actually worse than nothing).

Line-Up: There's a lot to like here. Justin Upton is a legit star. Steven Drew, Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds are all solid, and Drew may still have a little more room for improvement. You have to expect Chris Young to bounce back, at least a little, from last year's disaster (he hit .212, and unlike Conor Jackson, he doesn't have a rare illness to blame it on). If Upton doesn't have his first of what should be many huge years, they may be a bat short, but I think Upton's ready to carry this offense to big things.

Pitching: We already talked about Edwin Jackson. He and Danny Haren already make a pretty good one-two punch. If Brandon Webb is healthy by May and has the kind of year he's capable of having (Webb won 56 games in the three seasons before last year, think Chris Carpenter from last year), this rotation will get scary. I don't love Chad Qualls (3.63 ERA last year, bleh), but I do like the additions of Bobby Howry and Heilman, so I think this bullpen can figure out how to get it done.

Final Thought: To be fair, I should mention that this is probably the third year in a row I've really liked Arizona before the season started, it hasn't always worked out well. In some ways, this goes back to what I said about the Pirates, you never know exactly what you'll get from a bunch of young guys, even if they are talented. But this team isn't so young anymore, and I love their pitching, so I'm sold.

Prediction: First place, but probably a first round playoff loss. As much as I like their pitching, Haren always struggles in the second half, you don't know how Webb will hold up and while I'm predicting a stronger second half from Jackson, I'm not really basing that on anything. They'll have to play St. Louis or Philly in the first round, and I don't see that turning out well.

Colorado Rockies
Wait, I thought the Rockies moved to New Jersey in 1982 and ruined hockey with their neutral zone trap. Ohhhh, right, this is about the baseball team. Interesting fact #1, Dave Nied was the Rockies' first pick in the 1992 expansion draft. Interesting fact #2, Dave Nied won a total of 14 games for the Rockies in his career. Interesting fact #3, it took the Rockies' pitching roughly 15 years to recover.

Off-season: Not much to talk about here. Garrett Atkins is gone. Now who's gonna hit .226 with 9 home runs? Oh right, Ian Stewart (.228 last year, more home runs though). They picked up Melvin Mora and brought back Jason Giambi, so that's good. Unless this is 2010. Is this 2010? Oh, well then that probably won't help much.

Line-up: I'm not wild about this line-up, but I'll tell you what I like. Everyone on this team can hit. I don't know who can be the really big bats for this team, the 3 and 4 hitters, but they've got plenty of guys who can have solid seasons. I'm not sure how much Todd Helton has left, but he hit .325 last year, so maybe one more good year? Still, even without a good year from Helton, they should have enough.

Pitching: I'm a big fan of this team's pitching, maybe even a little more than the D'Backs. Ubaldo Jimenez is a legit ace and Cook and De La Rosa are solid. If Jeff Francis comes back strong, this team can win a lot of games with pitching. I like the bullpen too, I'm not super high on Huston Street, but he's good enough and he's got a lot of help. Expect this team to win a lot of 3-2 games.

Final Thought: For an expansion team, I actually like Denver quite a bit as a baseball town. How is it that the Marlins have 2 titles to the Rockies' 0 since they came in together and yet no one wants to go to Marlins' games but the Rockies are still doing pretty well with attendance? Good baseball town, that's how.

Prediction: Second place, and my pick for the NL wild card. Congrats Rockies, you get the honor of being pummeled by the Phillies in October!

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are exhibit A for why I don't believe in sports curses. If teams could actually be cursed, there's no way the Dodgers would have any championships since ditching Brooklyn for Los Angeles. The curse of the Bamino, the Chicago goat thing, all nonsense. Of course, maybe I'm wrong, maybe the baseball gods think having to play in front of fans who leave early because of traffic is already enough of a curse.

Off-season: Something about a divorce and the Dodgers not having money to spend kept them from doing anything notable this winter. John Lackey would have been an excellent fit here. It's fun seeing what happens when Joe Torre has to do more than just sit back and point his great team toward the field.

Line-up: I've always been a big Manny fan. I think he has a strong year and I like this line-up. Even if Torre has murdered Russell Martin's career, they still have Manny, Kemp, Either and Loney (look at Loney's stats for the last two years, they're damn near identical, he's like a machine, and a relatively productive machine too). The true effectiveness of this line-up will really depend on the size of Manny's year, but this team can hit.

Pitching: I really like the Dodgers' bullpen. Sure, Joe Torre is already well on his way to destroying Jonathan Broxton's shoulder, but until we finish that journey, this may be the best bullpen in baseball. Unfortunately, the Dodgers' starting pitching is a mess. I like Kershaw and Billingsley, but then what? This team would need an awful lot of wins from Hideki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla to win this division. How likely does that sound to you?

Final Thought: The Dodgers are sort of a wild card because they're a big money team acting like a small money team because of an ownership situation. If they start acting like a big money team again around the deadline, they can pick up some pitching and make things interesting.

Prediction: Third place. Could get better with added pitching, but they could also get a lot worse if they get injured (or if Manny stops caring for whatever reason). I imagine a lot of people picking this team to win the division, but something here just doesn't feel right.

San Francisco Giants
MLB.com has Barry Zito listed as the Giants' number two starter. Before Jonathan Sanchez and before Matt Cain. Are they just taunting Giants fans? I can't remember a situation like this in baseball, or any other sport. Everyone knew Barry Zito was done, other teams, fans, Oakland, everyone. Everyone except the Giants, who gave him a huge, ridiculous contract and have 31 wins over three completely healthy seasons to show for it. The Giants should be suspended from signing free agents for a year as punishment.

Off-season: I don't mind the DeRosa signing, somebody had to. But Aubrey Huff? Huff saw a little bit of a resurgence in Baltimore, until last year when he hit .241. Now he's moving to a pitcher's ballpark in a league with better pitching to begin with. Call me skeptical, but I don't see this ending well.

Line-up: Pablo Sandoval can hit. I mean he can rake. If I were a baseball, I would run in the other direction when I saw him coming. Unfortunately, I hate the rest of this line-up. Last year's big signing, Edgar Renteria, hit .250 last year, and I don't expect him to get any better. Remember when I said the Rockies would win a lot of 3-2 games? Well, I expect the Giants to be on the losing end of about 7 of those.

Pitching: I do like the pitching for the Giants. Aside from Zito (who actually wasn't awful last year, 11 wins, 4.03 ERA. Could have been a lot worse, like the two previous years when he posted ERAs over 5), this rotation is excellent. Lincecum and Cain are studs, and I like Jonathan Sanchez too. I'm on the Madison Bumgarner band wagon. That's four good starters, so while I don't like this team's offense at all, they certainly have the pitching to keep games close and compete.

Final Thought: I definitely want to get to a game at AT&T Park, or whatever they're calling it this week. It looks really nice and I bet it would be cool to spend a game in McCovey Cove. Plus I hear they have awesome garlic fries. You probably can't get the fries in the cove though, I'd have to choose (spoiler alert: I choose the fries).

Prediction: Fourth place, but they could do better. In a division with good pitching, every team has a shot. If the Giants get monster years from one or two guys, they could contend.

San Diego Padres
Remember when I said I could talk you into winning seasons for Pittsburgh and Washington? Yeah, well, not this time. I've looked at the San Diego roster from every angle, looking for signs of hope. All I found was Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of guys I've never heard of.

Off-season: They signed Jerry Hairston Jr. and Jon Garland. I didn't hate Garland as an idea for good teams, but I don't see how he helps the Padres. Probably the best part of the off-season for San Diego fans was not trading Adrian Gonzalez. Beware, trades can still happen in the spring and they can definitely happen in the summer.

Line-up: Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks can hit home runs. More importantly, look at the picture of Kyle Blanks on ESPN.com or MLB.com. It looks like they used a time machine to import him from the 70's. I think the Padres could really make this season fun by requiring every player to adopt a different 70's hair style.

Pitching: I've heard good things about Mat Latos, so that should be something interesting to watch. The rest of this staff is an abomination, especially compared to all the good pitching in this division. Even if Heath Bell has another solid year, which I wouldn't bet on (he's 32 this year), he'll be setting up for Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon by August 1st. Chris Young had an ERA of 5.21 in 76 innings last year. The thing about very tall pitchers is, if they lose their mechanics, it's really hard to get them back, too many moving parts. Young could bounce back this year, but he could also be done.

Final Thought: Boooooooo! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Prediction: Last place, I'd put good money on it. Every other team in this division is demonstrably better than San Diego. I see no logical way this team can win more than 65 games or get anywhere near the playoffs. Luckily, Padres fans live in San Diego, so life's still pretty good.

Be Afraid

Glenn Beck is a crazy idiot. But he is, by far, my favorite crazy idiot. Beck's show is an hour long roller coaster ride of delusion, hilarity, complete disregard for reality and even the occasional moment of insightful clarity. I can only imagine what his radio show is like (awesome, I assume).

A year ago Friday, a tearful Beck introduced his ridiculous 9/12 project. The premise was for us to go back to being the people we were on 9-12-01, the day after 9-11-01. What a great idea! I really enjoyed that odd combination of anger and confusion, thanks terrorists.

The 9.12 project is built around Beck's "9 founding principles" and "12 eternal values". Glenn's very much into founding and the founders. Today's politicians are no Ben Franklin. I mean, sure, some of them may have syphilis, and I could see many of them enjoying French whores, but still. I seem to have wandered off the path a bit. Anyway, I think now is as good a time as any to take a closer look at the 9/12 project.

First, the nine founding principles...
1. America is good
That's it. No qualifiers, no caveats, no exceptions. We're just good, period. The list of things that are good under all circumstances is pretty short. Even bacon doesn't make that list (raw bacon=not good). I'm pretty sure a country doesn't make that list. We've been here since the 18th century, I'm positive we're slightly more complicated than "good".

More importantly, this type of broad oversimplification is exactly the kind thinking that allows people to justify things like torturing terror suspects. Because if we're always good, then everything we do is good, and we don't have to think about it. I know America is a great place, and we've done a ton of great things, but sometimes we do bad things. We need to be able to recognize those bad things, take responsibility, and try not to do them again. Why? Because that's how you stay good.

2. I believe in god and he is the center of my life
OK, most people who read this are people I know, and a lot of them are religious. They're good people, and they don't look down on others who don't believe what they believe. So I try really hard not to insult religion here, but Glenn is always baiting me. So, religious people I know, feel free to move on to number 3, or you can continue to the blasphemy portion of today's program, but don't say I didn't warn you.

I am so incredibly tired of people like Goldmember Beck and Fathead Hannity telling me that I'm somehow less of an American or less of a good person because I can't see their invisible friend. Everybody here gets to believe what they want to believe, and I'm cool with that. But if you're telling me, to be a real American, I have to buy into your magic story about how the universe works, either show me some proof or leave me alone.

I'm not hostile toward religion, I'm really not. I see people doing good things in the name of religion, and I see the value people get out of always having something in their lives that loves them and gives a crap about them. If I could get my brain there, I'm sure I'd find it comforting. But I get annoyed when people suggest that the government, the people who run our country, should base decisions on something that, to be nice about it, may or may not be real.

(PS...why do I like calling him Goldmember Beck? Watch his show one day, watch the commercials. I think you'll agree, he likes gooooooooooold)

3. I must always try to be a more honest person than I was yesterday
It would be easy to call Glenn a liar here and move on, but I really don't think he is. I don't know if I've ever seen Glenn say something he didn't believe. That's part of his charm. So much of what he says is nonsense, but he's very convincing because he absolutely believes it. My problem with principle number 3 is this. How about just trying to be completely honest everyday? I only have to be more honest tomorrow if I lied to you today.

4. My family is sacred. My spouse and I are the ultimate authority, not the government
This one is all about kids and education. Now, if you read my education blog from a couple of months ago, you know I think parents are, generally, idiots and I don't want them anywhere near public education. Having said that, I fully realize that parents have the right to teach their stupid kids whatever nonsense they want. The problem is, this starts with parents teaching their kids values or religion at home, which is fine, but it ends with home schooling and not getting kids vaccinated. Do you want a generation of home schooled kids with measles? Me neither.

5. If you break the law you pay the penalty. Justice is blind and no one is above it
I'd like to be able to cure cancer with beer and skittles. Some things are really nice ideas, but you can't just wish them into reality. Some people will always be above the law, or they'll at least always be able to buy their way out of trouble. We don't have to like it, but we do have to live with it.

6. I have a right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, but there is no guarantee of equal results
Yes, Beck believes in equal rights and opportunity for everyone. Well, except the gays, of course. Oh and Muslims (who apparently shouldn't be Congressmen unless they can prove their loyalty first). And, of course, progressives, who are just terrible and evil. And minorities, they get most of the rights, but if one of them becomes President or something, than everything he does is automatically socialism or a sneaky plan for slavery reparations. You know what? Glenn's going to have to get back to you about this equality thing.

7. I work hard for what I have and I will share it with who I want to. Government cannot force me to be charitable
I remember that passage in the bible when Jesus said "In as much as ye have done unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me. Unless ye be the government, in which case, anything ye have done unto the least of these my brethren is socialism, and it be WRONG!" I may have slipped from bible talk to pirate talk near the end there, but you get my point.

8. It is not un-American for me to disagree with authority or to share my personal opinion
he added, "unless of course we have a Republican President. Only terrorists disagree with Republicans." This is a trick Beck and all of his Fox buddies use. If you listen to them now, they'd have you believe they were all really hard on President Bush. Poor guy just couldn't catch a break. I must have just randomly tuned into Fox for all the rare times they were completely agreeing with everything the Bush administration was doing. Just my crappy luck I guess.

9. The government works for me. I do not answer to them, they answer to me.
This one makes me almost as angry as number two. If I could, I would tattoo this next sentence onto Glenn's forehead. The government does not work for us, it works on our behalf. It's the difference between having an employee and having a lawyer. You pay both of them, but an employee, generally, has to follow orders, while a good lawyer doesn't just do whatever you say, because you're an idiot and he went to law school. We do not have a right to a government that never spends a tax dollar on anything we don't like. We don't have a right to a government that never does anything we don't like. Anyone who tells you different is either stupid or lying.

And, of course, the 12 eternal values...
Honesty - Well, when Glenn said he was sick of the 9/11 families and he wanted them to shut up, that was, indeed, super honest. Beck supporters will tell you he said he didn't feel that way about all the 9/11 families, just about 10 of them. Oh, OK, that makes it better, my bad.
Reverence - This one feels suspiciously religious to me. Who, exactly, am I supposed to revere? Especially since I'm supposed to be hating the government and all. Glenn either wants me to revere him or god. No dice either way.
Hope - Not that crazy Obama hope though, ya know, white guy hope.
Thrift - When was the last time someone called you thrifty and it wasn't just a nicer way of calling you cheap?
Humility - Like the humility it takes to believe you know better than every elected official and every voter who elected them. What? That's not what humility means? Screw you!
Charity - As referenced above, only when you feel like it, and the government had better not be anywhere near it. It does seem like a lot of these values are just modified versions of the principles. Seems kinda lazy. I get the feeling this was like a homework assignment for Beck. He knew it was due on 3/12/09, but he just kept putting it off and then he had to throw it together the night before.
Sincerity - You know what? I'm gonna give Glenn this one. The world could use more sincerity, and I'm as bad with this as anyone. Sure, I'll write something sincere here or in an e-mail sometimes, but it's very possible it's been three months since I actually said anything sincere to anyone. So there you go, the Beckster is 1 for 21.
Moderation - I think this one comes from Beck's background as an alcoholic (I'm not mocking alcoholics, Glenn brings this up all the time). Sorry Glenn, if there's a more American value than crazy, unnecessary excess, I haven't found it.
Hard Work - Glenn is a big fan of hard work. Unless, of course, you're in a union. Then, you're destroying America. Much like me, Glenn's a puzzle.
Courage - Like the courage to go on TV and share your paranoid delusions with the world.
Personal Responsibility - Beck often claims to be a Libertarian, and this one is sort of a nod to that. Unfortunately, you can't really be both a Libertarian and a Theocrat. Sorry Beckster.
Gratitude - This one was originally friendship, but Beck swapped it out for gratitude on the fly as he introduced the values. Wait, I thought these were eternal values? Maybe if the terrorists had attacked on 9/12, Glenn could have had 13 values and kept friendship. Stupid terrorists, they ruin everything.

I'm curious about the complete lack of any mention of diversity, tolerance, acceptance, etc. What happened to the whole melting pot deal? Are we done with that now? I didn't get that memo.

So, what's my problem? This seems mean-spirited, even for me. Shouldn't I go easy on Beck, isn't he at least getting his followers involved in government, and isn't that ultimately a good thing? Well, if that were true, I would say it is a good thing. But I have a hard time believing that Glenn's anti-government manifesto will result in his fans getting constructively involved. So far, we've had people shouting nonsense at politicians while the rest of us were trying to get health insurance fixed. And we've got the Republican party chasing the idiot vote instead of gravitating back toward reality after the last two electoral beat downs.

This isn't constructive engagement, it's propaganda, from a guy on a "news" network (and I know, MSNBC does the same thing for the liberal agenda, but Fox is way better at it, at least for now). But that's not the worst part. Go back to the beginning. It's the 9/12 project, we're supposed to try to feel the way we did on 9/12/01. I identified anger and confusion, but my guess is, most people associate one emotion with that day more than any other. Fear. Glenn is, almost explicitly, trying to scare us into agreeing with him. And it seems to be working. That's my problem.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL Central

This is the week every year when college basketball goes from being almost as good as college football to being a billion times better. How can anyone watch championship week and the NCAA tournament and still not want a playoff for football? Do you have to fail an IQ test to be a college president? Let's get to the baseball before I punch something.

St. Louis Cardinals
I really like the Cardinal organization. Classy, great baseball city, excellent history. If the Yankees suddenly disappeared, I'd be a Cardinals fan, I wouldn't even have to think about it. When I heard the Cardinals were hiring Mark McGwire to be their new hitting coach, I was pretty shocked. And not, "oh wow, that restaurant was better than I thought it would be" shocked, but more like, "how did that monkey get in my car?" shocked. I thought we were all pretty happy pretending Mark McGwire never existed. I actually thought Mark was pretty happy with that situation too. But after thinking about it for a bit, I've decided this was another classy move from the Cardinals. Here's a guy who did a lot for the Cardinal organization, and then we all found out about the steroids and everyone wants to close their eyes and pretend he's invisible, but not the Cardinals. They're willing to take the heat and give him a chance, I don't have a problem with it. Good for them.

Off-season: Quiet winter for the Cards. They have money, but not a ton, and the money they had needed to go to Matt Holliday. Holliday seems to be a good fit in St. Louis and I think he needs to be somewhere where he can be second banana, so I think St. Louis is a good fit for him too. I like Felipe Lopez for them, because I don't love most of their infield, and Brad Penny was a good bargain signing for them. I would have liked to have seen them add another pitcher, but they can probably live without it.

Line-up: Having the best hitter in the game is a pretty good start, right? You'd have a pretty hard time building a bad line-up around Albert Pujols. And St. Louis has actually built a pretty good line-up around him. If he manages to keep his second base job, I like Skip Schumaker and his .364 OBP as a lead-off hitter. And even if he can't keep his job, Felipe Lopez wouldn't be a bad lead-off option either. Holliday and Ludwick provide solid protection (people think Ludwick dropped off last year, he still drove in 97 runs in 139 games, I'll take that from my third best hitter). I'd love to see a left-handed hitter somewhere in the middle of this line-up, and I'm not sold on Colby Rasmus, or Brendan Ryan, or David Freese, but this line-up is still plenty good.

Pitching: The top two for the Cards can match up with anyone. I thought Wainwright got hosed on the Cy Young voting last year. Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball, so you can worry about the back end of their rotation, but I wouldn't worry that much. If Kyle McClellan wins a spot in the rotation, we might actually see a break out year from him. I like the bullpen too, Ryan Franklin is a stud, don't let anyone tell you different.

Final Thought: St. Louis made a bunch of big mid-season moves last year. I wonder if they've got the organizational depth left to add another bat or another arm if they need one. Also, I'd get worried about this team pretty quickly if Chris Carpenter gets hurt, which is not, like, out of the realm of possibility.

Prediction: First place, playoffs again. I like the Phillies' line-up just a little bit more, so I think the Cards fall just short of the world series, but it's certainly not out of the question.

Houston Astros
It was not easy to figure out the order in which teams fall between St. Louis and Pittsburgh in this division. Like a 7-layer dip of mediocrity, the flavors just sort of blend together. The Astros are a flawed team, but they have a history of futile late season charges, and this season's should land them in 2nd place.

Off-season: Pedro Feliz and Brett Myers are the winter headlines in Houston. Not impressed? I could see how you'd come to that conclusion, but hang on a minute. Pedro is like the new Joe Randa, he has about the same season every year, it's not great, but it's what he does and you can pretty much put it in the bank. I'm not sure what to expect from Myers. He's only 29, but he hasn't pitched to a sub 4 ERA since 2006. You could do worse for a 3rd or 4th starter. Much like the Cardinals, I think this team did what it could with the cash it had.

Line-up: This is an odd line-up. Lee and Berkman aren't done, but I think they'll fall off a bit this year. I do think Hunter Pence is up for a good year, or at least a better one (he hit .309 in September last year, that's not much to go on, but it's all I've got). Michael Bourn is really rounding into form as a solid lead-off guy, .354 on base last year with 61 steals. .354 isn't great, but that's compared to .327 for his career, so at 27 years old it's not crazy to think he can keep it moving upward. On the other hand, they've got a pretty weak underbelly and not a ton of depth. J.R. Towles seems to be the current front runner at catcher, he's a .188 career hitter. That's basically like having two pitchers in your line-up. This team can have its days, but scoring enough runs consistently could be a problem.

Pitching: I'm a huge Roy Oswalt fan, but at 32 it's hard to say he's trending in the right direction (3.54 ERA in 2008, 4.12 last year). I still think he has something left if he's healthy. Wandy Rodriguez was really good last year, and he is trending in the right direction. We already talked about Myers and I really like Bud Norris, who's 25 and struck out almost a batter per inning last year. I'm not wild about the bullpen, but I'm willing to give Matt Lindstrom a chance.

Final Thought: Is it just me, or is Astros one of the weirdest team names in pro sports. I understand why they did it, but that was a long time ago and NASA can't even get back to the moon now. How about the Houston Colts, or the Houston Big Stupid Hats.

Prediction: Solid pitching carries this team to 2nd place, barely. Honestly, the Astros could finish fifth too, it really doesn't matter, I don't expect anyone in this division, outside of St. Louis, to get near the post-season.

Milwaukee Brewers
If there's one thing I like, it's a beer themed baseball team. Beer and baseball go together like beer and...well, everything. Also, I'm told Miller Park has excellent bratwurst, complete with secret stadium sauce. I feel like I could go to a whole game there and never notice the team, which may be a good thing.

Off-season: Not a lot to like here, or even talk about really. Carlos Gomez, Randy Wolf, Gregg Zaun. Hey, Brewers fans! Did I mention the great brats at the ballpark? And if you don't like Brats (for some completely insane reason), they have three or four other kinds of sausages. Not to mention sausage races and all the Miller Lite you can drink. I, by the way, am in no way endorsing Miller Lite. But if you're forcing me to drink a domestic beer, Miller Lite isn't a bad choice.

Line-up: Another odd NL Central line-up. You have to really like Fielder and Braun, and I'm not off the Corey Hart bandwagon yet. Casey McGehee is certainly interesting, .859 OPS last season. But then you have the other guys. Who leads off? Rickie Weeks and his .247 career batting average? Carlos Gomez and his .287 career on base percentage? This line-up has a great middle, but there are a lot of outs here, especially if I'm wrong about Corey Hart.

Pitching: Man, I hate the Brewers' pitching. Before I started looking at rosters, I had Braun and Fielder in my head and I really wanted to pick the Brewers as my wild card team. I like Yovani Gallardo, especially if he can keep his walks down a little. But then you've got the likes of Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis, Manny Parra and Randy Wolf. They really thought they had something in Parra, after a 6.36 ERA last year and opposing hitters hitting .306 against him, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even make the rotation. Miller Park isn't exactly a pitcher's park to begin with. This is another situation where fans might want to bring helmets to the games.

Final Thought: I'm also told that Bernie Brewer no longer slides into a big mug of beer after a Brewer home run. WTF? I am NOT OK with that. When did we all decide that things can't be fun anymore? I hate life sometimes.

Prediction: Third place, or fifth, or second, I don't know. The middle of this division is just a hodge podge, but I do know Milwaukee's pitching will keep them out of the playoffs.

Chicago Cubs
I don't envy Cubs fans. A century of losing, and the White Sox got their title a few years ago, just after the Red Sox did. The Cubs are now really all alone, the undisputed most pathetic losers in sports. I'd really like to tell you I see them putting an end to the pain this year, but I don't.

Off-season: Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady. Sigh. Byrd actually hit .283 last year with 20 home runs, but that was in Texas, and this isn't Texas, and he's 32. I have to say I'd be pretty disappointed if I were a Cubs fan. John Lackey and Jason Bay could both have been nice fits here.

Line-up: This line-up really concerns me. Last year was Derrek Lee's best since 2005, but he's 34 years old and a little injury prone. Aramis Ramirez hit .317 last year when he was healthy, but he only played in 82 games and he's 31. Soriano hit .241 last year, he's 34 years old (or 37 or 43 or 62, no one really knows) and he's already injured. Geovany Soto hit .218 last year. Lots of red flags here. I think people are still expecting the Cubs to hit, I'm not sure why. They'll have their games, but not too many of them.

Pitching: My favorite piece for the Cubs is actually their bullpen. Even with Angel Guzman's shoulder problem, I still like Carlos Marmol and I think the other guys in the bullpen (Grabow, Samardzija) can get to him. You can win a lot of games with decent starters and a good bullpen. Decent starters are the question mark though. I like Big Z, but he's clearly a little crazy. The rest of this rotation is a bit iffy. Guys like Dempster, Lilly and Wells can sometimes get on a roll together and fight their way to a pretty good season, but guys like that can also get lit up at anytime.

Final Thought: When's the last time the Cubs had a big time prospect that really panned out? What happened to Felix Pie? This franchise either drafts badly or develops badly. Both are bad signs for the future.

Prediction: Fourth place, maybe under .500 and Lou Pinella sets a single season ejection record on his way out of town. Next year, new manager Ryne Sandberg starts the long journey to finally winning a championship. But that's next year.

Cincinnati Reds
I went to a game in Cincinnati 5 or 6 years ago. It was July, the Reds were, as usual, going nowhere. I wanted to see Griffey Jr. play in person once before he retired. Of course, I booked the trip in May and Griffey was back on the DL by the time I got there. Still, I had a good time at the game. Great ballpark, good food too (did you know Cincinnati is the chili capital of the world, or at least America? I know, it doesn't sound right, but I swear it's true). The team was pretty forgettable though, and they still are.

Off-season: Two big stories for the Reds this winter. The positive one, signing Aroldis Chapman. After the big money teams passed on him, I was worried he wouldn't be anything special, but now I'm hearing he looks great in camp, and he's only 22. This could turn out pretty well. The negative one, Edinson Volquez is out for the year. Well done, Dusty, well done.

Line-up: I honestly don't hate this line-up. Brandon Phillips is still only 28 and I'm predicting a big year, like top 10 MVP voting year, for Jay Bruce. I know that's a bit of a stretch for a guy who hit .223 and got hurt last year, but I really like Bruce. I'm not sold on everyone else though. Orlando Cabrera's 35, and Scott Rolen is 34 and physically incapable of staying healthy. Clearly, this is an offense in transition, but that doesn't help them this year.

Pitching: I don't like the Reds' pitching without Volquez. I'm not a big Johnny Cueto fan and I think Homer Bailey is probably one year away. I've never been impressed with Harang as an ace and Bronson Arroyo is still Bronson Arroyo, at least he was the last time I checked. Francisco Cordero is a solid closer, I'm just not sure they'll need him much. Does this staff have upside? Definitely. Do I think we'll see that upside this year? Probably not.

Final Thought: I'll be interested to see how much trading the Reds do if they're not in it by July. Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Ramon Hernandez and Arthur Rhodes could all be interesting to contenders if the Reds decide to have a real fire sale. The Reds could be the belle of the trading deadline ball and they could get a ton of good pieces back for these guys. I think I'd do it.

Prediction: Fifth place, although there's potential here to do better. They can't touch the Cardinals either, but they can get to second if things go well.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Here, again, we get to the fun part. This team is awful, an unmitigated disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh lost 100 games. And yet, when you look at them on paper, could I talk you into maybe 83 wins for this team? I bet I could.

Off-season: The Pirates don't even really count for the off-season, but they did actually pick up some players. Ryan Church can really contribute when he's healthy, but will most likely spend the season making Pittsburgh's DL league team the best in the league. Brendan Donnelly is interesting too. Yes, he's 38 and he looked done in 2007 and 2008, but he was lights out in 30 games for Florida last year, so who knows.

Line-up: Young, that's really the only word you need, this line-up is super young. 31 year old Akinori Iwamura sticks out like a sore thumb and has mid-season trade written all over him (if he can stay healthy and produce, both big ifs). Doumit is the key here. If he can stay healthy and hit, this young line-up may be able to come together around him. McCutchen, Milledge, LaRoche, Clement, Jones. If even two of those guys can step up with good years, this team will be able to score and compete most days.

Pitching: I don't hate the Pirates' staff as much as, say, the Nationals, but it's still not good. I like Zack Duke and I sort of like Paul Maholm, but that's pretty much it. We already talked about Brendan Donnelly, and they'll need him whenever they find out Octavio Dotel is done for the year, which could happen at any time. Pittsburgh should give up plenty of runs, but they'll get some good outings from some starters.

Final Thought: This team doesn't have a whole lot to offer contenders at the deadline. It's too bad they can't trade their very nice ballpark for some young pitching.

Prediction: Last place, and it could get ugly. The thing about a young team is you never really know what you're going to get from anyone. I could see this team jumping up and battling the likes of Cincinnati to get out of the basement, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Disappointment

Before I get into this, a quick Oscars note. I could stay on topic by manufacturing some disappointment over a few of the winners, but I really wasn't disappointed. The Hurt Locker was an awesome movie and I'm glad it won (if that other movie about blue people, which I refuse to see or mention by name, had beaten The Hurt Locker for best picture, I would have done 5 blogs complaining about it). Sure, I would have liked to have seen that girl from Precious win, just because she seems really nice and it might have made Oprah so happy she would have given us all cars, but I like Sandra Bullock so I can't even really complain about that. And yes, 500 Days of Summer was easily my favorite movie of the last year, and it didn't get nominated for anything, but that has more to do with there not being a comedy category than anything else. So I was really pretty fine with the Oscars. Oh well. Anyway, onto things that do disappoint me.

Everyone knows New York is the best city in the world. It's an undisputed fact. Being from somewhere else doesn't mean you're from somewhere that sucks, it just means you're from somewhere that's less awesome than it could be. Like a cheeseburger without bacon, or a gun without bullets, or a milkshake without bacon, really anything without bacon is a solid example here. I was in the middle of a thought, now I'm just thinking about things I could add bacon to, where was I? Oh yeah, my hometown is great. That's why I'm so disappointed in New York politics lately.

I submit that all these problems started with New York's Senators. No scandals there, but I wasn't impressed with either of them. I once heard someone (Jon Stewart maybe) refer to Chuck Schumer as a human strip mall. I'm still not sure exactly what that meant, but it sure sounds right. Senator Schumer used to visit the university I worked at in New York sometimes and give little speeches. I remember always being underwhelmed.

The other Senate seat currently belongs to someone named Kirsten. That's really all I know about her, but I had a friend named Kirsten when I was a kid, so Senator Kirsten is plus one with me so far. But her predecessor, Hillary Clinton, was another disappointment for me. A carpetbagger from Arkansas and Washington who was clearly using the state as a stepping stone to a run for the White House. We elected her because we knew her name and it had a D next to it. I thought New Yorkers were smarter than that.

Now, you could look at both of those elections and say they weren't really so bad, and you'd probably be right. But I don't know, maybe if we had examined these two little mistakes more closely, we could have avoided the rest of this nonsense.

Eliot Spitzer wasn't really a disappointment (at least not for me) so much as he was an embarrassment. Governor Spitzer liked whores. I don't like whores, but some people do, and that's really between them and their wives. I mean, it's not like it's a crime. What? It is a crime? Oh yeah, that's right. OK, so maybe a slightly disappointing embarrassment.

Wait, the voice in my head wants to know how I can say I don't like whores if I've never tried one. That's an interesting point, voice in my head. But I have a somewhat related counterpoint. I've never tried hepatitis either, but I'm fairly certain I wouldn't like it. Hey, voice in my head! How come other people have a conscience that tries to get them to do good things but you're always doing things like trying to get me to try a hooker or betting me I can't drink a whole bottle of Jack Daniels on St. Patrick's Day in college without blacking out (mission accomplished, by the way)? The voice doesn't have an answer, that's what I thought.

Spitzer's shameful resignation ushered in the David Paterson era, which has been like a Lollapalooza of unethical behavior. On the main stage, there was his immediate admission of cheating on his wife, followed by his admission to trying almost every drug ever invented. And just as the main stage show was winding down, we found out that he allegedly used state police to intimidate a woman who was making accusations against one of his staffers. Oh, and did I mention he's also legally blind? Blindness isn't funny, but you have to see the irony in a blind Governor so blatantly misusing officers of the justice system.

What actually got me going on this are the commercials I've been seeing about this stupid soda tax they've proposed in New York. I know, they already tax cigarettes and alcohol and 17 other things that people like even though they're bad for us. That doesn't mean I have to like it. How does the awesome, cool state become the no smoking in bars, soda tax state?

I should mention, at this point, that I won't make fun of that Massa guy from the 29th district. For one thing, New York's 29th district could easily be called northern Pennsylvania, it barely counts. Also, what I've heard so far about what he supposedly did doesn't really sound that bad. Most importantly, that dude has cancer, so I think I should leave him alone.

OK. So far, I can't really be disappointed in the voters. They haven't voted on the soda thing yet, and even if I could blame the Governors on them, I could just blame it on the voters from the weird upstate part of New York, and not the good part where the people are. Is there anything specific to the city that can be reasonably blamed on voter stupidity?

Well, how about Charlie Rangel? It would be easier to list all the House ethics rules he isn't accused of violating. And Congressman Rangel's been re-elected something like 52 times. Specific to the city? Check. Voter stupidity? Probably not. Even with the story out there for weeks, it's still a little hard to get your head around exactly what the Congressman did. I'm not sure you can blame voters for electing him when it was still a secret.

Oh, I got it! Bloomberg! Mayor Mike ignored his term limit and then bought an election, which the good people of New York were more than happy to let him do. Yeah, that's not good. Bloomberg's the first non-Democrat I've mentioned. It's not that I'm intentionally picking on the Democrats. New York Republicans are no picnic. Peter King is a New York Republican, he's also completely out of his mind.

You can say other states are just as bad, maybe even worse. We know South Carolina is a mess. Mark Sanford is still the Governor there (seriously, I swear I'm not joking). And there's Minnesota. They've got Michelle Bachmann, who's crazy enough all on her own, but they've also got Al Franken and they had Jesse Ventura. What's wrong with Al Franken? One day, maybe I'll make a big list of rules to live by, like Leroy Jethro Gibbs. When I do, one of the rules will definitely be, "if the best option you can find for Senator is a stand-up comedian, look harder".

But that's sort of my point. Disappointment is all about expectations. I know New York isn't any worse than many other states, but that's not good enough. New York is supposed to be the best, the Empire state, home of the greatest city in the world. Now, it seems, New York is no better than anywhere else. That's a disappointment.

I'm not doing this to bash New York. My home state needs an intervention. How about Governor Giuliani? Hear me out. I know Rudy's gone pretty crazy lately, but I think it was leaving New York that turned him crazy, and I know how he feels. When he was the Mayor, he was a little crazy, but he was our kind of crazy. Oh, but he had scandals too. That's the sad part, I could spend the next year doing nothing but searching for a truly clean politician and still never find one. So, I'm still going with Governor Giuliani. It's just my first idea, I'm open to better ones. Maybe we need someone who would come with expectations so low, he couldn't possibly disappoint us. Hmmm, Harry Reid should be available after November.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL East

My original plan was to do two baseball previews, one for each league. I started thinking about how long those would get and I decided I had a better idea. So, we're doing a division a week from now until the start of the season (one week gets two divisions, so we'll find the two least interesting divisions and lump them together, I'm looking at you AL Central). We're leading off this week with the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are the undisputed king of this division. Fans of other teams in this division may want to seriously consider ignoring this season. Sure, you can compete for the wild card, but you still have to watch your team get bashed by the Phillies 19 times. And even if you survive that, make the playoffs and win your first round series, there's just another bashing waiting for you courtesy of the Phillies. Really not a lot of upside.

Off-season: The NL champs actually got slightly better over the winter. Placido Polanco and Roy Halladay are, at least, marginal upgrades over Cliff Lee and Pedro Feliz. I don't like overstating expectations for guys, but Roy Halladay in the National League? Is it possible for a pitcher to have a negative ERA? Actually, the part of the Phillies' off-season that should scare other teams the most isn't anyone they picked up. We'll get to that in a minute.

Line-Up: Even if Werth and Ibanez both take steps back this year, which is certainly possible, especially for Ibanez, this is still a very deep line-up for the NL. Great speed at the top and great power in the middle. They're lacking power at third base, but that weakness is really cancelled out by the above average power at second base. You also have to like their depth. Mayberry and Francisco could probably start for a lot of teams, one of those guys won't even be the fourth outfielder for the Phillies.

Pitching: I don't love the back end of the Phillies' rotation, I think Jamie Moyer is just about done (of course, I would have told you that five years ago, so who knows). I also think J.A. Happ takes a step back to reality this year. On the other hand, you already know about Halladay and I think Hamels is ready for a big season. They've also got some young arms that may be ready to step in and compete for that 5th starter role. The back end of the bullpen could be a problem. Brad Lidge may be the most fragile guy in sports, but look at it this way. There's no way Lidge could be anymore of a mess than he was last year, and they still got to the world series.

Final Thought: Remember what I said about the scariest part of the Phillies' off-season? Here it is. They managed to get Roy Halladay without giving up Dominic Brown or Kyle Drabek. So, if they have an injury or just struggle a bit early, and they need another bat or another arm in July, they have better top end trading chips than almost any other team.

Prediction: First place, maybe 100 wins and another world series appearance. Three years in a row is tough, but I don't see a team in the NL that can hang with Philadelphia.

Florida Marlins
It's easy to get excited about a team like Florida. Lots of brand name young talent, and young talent suggests endless possibilities. But here's some reality. This wasn't a playoff team last year, and most people thought the Marlins overachieved in 2009. I'm not saying they can't contend, especially for the wild card, but I am wondering what happens if Josh Johnson gets hurt, or Hanley Ramirez.

Off-season: It's tough being a Marlins fan in the winter. I mean, sure, it's sunny, and warm, and you had the superbowl this year and you can still go to the beach in December. But who cares about all of that? They don't sign anyone, if they make a big trade, it's usually to give away a top player. Where's the fun in that? They did sign Josh Johnson to a long term deal, so that's another young pitcher the Yankees can't have until he's not young anymore.

Line-Up: I don't hate this line-up, but I don't love it either. If Gaby Sanchez steps up and has a big year, then they could surprise me, but if he doesn't, I can't see Jorge Cantu having another 100 RBI season and Dan Uggla hit .243 last year. I don't know why anyone would throw a strike to Hanley Ramirez. And if Hanley gets hurt...this team doesn't have a big margin for error.

Pitching: I love the Marlins' starting pitching, probably even a little more than the Phillies'. Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are both aces in my book (that's Sean's Big Book of Aces, pick it up wherever imaginary books are sold), and Anibal Sanchez has ace stuff too (if he can stay healthy, which is a lot like when I said Gilbert Arenas could have a big year if he avoided doing something crazy). The bullpen is a different story. The bullpen always suffers on low budget teams, it's the last place most teams put any real money. On the plus side, Hayden Penn and Dan Meyer were both serious prospects at one point, so they've got some potential back there, but I'm not sold on Leo Nunez. The question becomes, if this bullpen can't hold leads, how long can the starters hold up going 8 or 9 innings every start?

Final Thought: The Marlins are always interesting around the trading deadline as a dark horse candidate to pick up someone big. They always have good prospects, but they're rarely willing to take on salary. Let's say Florida is five games back in late July. Could you see Manny Ramirez spending two months in Miami and leading them on an improbable playoff run? Me too.

Prediction: Second place. I think a lot of people will pick the Marlins for the wild card, not me. I think they're a bat short and they've got too many injury risks in the rotation.

Atlanta Braves
I'm not a big Bobby Cox guy. A homeless guy from outside Fulton County Stadium could have led Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz to 5 or 6 division titles in the 90's. I'm not saying he's a bad manager, I'm just saying he's not that much better than anyone else.

Off-season: The Braves added Troy Glaus, Melky Cabrera, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. If you're thinking "I don't really see any good ideas in there", you're not alone. Put me down for June 1st in the Billy Wagner season ending surgery pool, and he might be the best addition out of those four.

Line-Up: I like Nate McLouth, and I like Yunel Escobar, and that's pretty much it. "What about Brian McCann?", you ask. Well, Brian's OPS was .834 last year. Is that really what you want from the guy who's supposed to be your best hitter? Probably not. The Braves can score some runs, but not enough.

Pitching: This is a completely different team if Tim Hudson wins 20 games. Assuming that doesn't happen, I don't mind the Braves' pitching, but it doesn't blow me away. Derek Lowe can dominate the league for two months if he gets on a roll, but he can also be awful for a month. That's not great from your ace. Jair Jurrjens pitched to a 2.60 ERA last year, but only averaged just over 6 innings a start and only won 14 games with that ERA. There's a guy who can win 20 with a strong bullpen, but the Braves don't have one. Also, Tommy Hanson will be a stud someday, but I'm not wild about him this year.

Final Thought: I'm wondering if Lowe and/or a rejuvenated Hudson become available around the trading deadline. That could be the most interesting thing the Braves do all year.

Prediction: Text book mediocre team, 81-81, third place. It's ridiculous to pick exact records in baseball, but this makes so much sense for Atlanta. It'll be like they weren't even there.

New York Mets
I really don't know what I'd do if I were a Mets fan. If Mets fans were children, and the Mets were their parents, the state would have taken the children away by now. Somebody should kill Mr. Met so he can roll over in his grave.

Off-season: Jason Bay was a solid start, and then...well...Gary Matthews Jr., Rod Barajas, Josh Fogg, etc. Kelvim Escobar is already like one step away from being out for the year. I don't know what happened to Omar Minaya, but we need to keep it away from the Bronx.

Line-up: With all the bad things I have to say about the Mets, I actually don't mind their line-up. If everyone else is still standing when Beltran gets back, this team should actually score some runs. I wish they had a lefty other than Murphy, but Beltran's switch hitting will help with that too. Mets fans should keep an eye out for Ike Davis. No one screws up prospects quite as efficiently as the Mets, but this guy might be can't miss. If Murphy struggles, and I think he will, you might see Davis sooner than later.

Pitching: Here's the thing about the Mets' pitching. I like everyone they have individually, but I hate them all on the same team. I'm not sold on Johan Santana's long term health. Every time I see John Maine pitch I really like his stuff, but he can't get through a season healthy. Oliver Perez is talented, but he also has health concerns on top of conditioning problems and general sanity issues. And the bullpen is just a mess. I don't have a problem with K-Rod, but how do they plan to get to him?

Final Thought: One of the Mets' biggest problems in the total lack of organizational depth. Even if they had been willing to pay him, they couldn't get in on the Halladay sweepstakes because they didn't really have anything Toronto wanted. They don't really have much anybody wants. So even if they can start fast and stay close, they can't add an impact player at the deadline. On the bright side, they're apparently five deep at catcher, so there's that.

Prediction: Fourth place. The Mets actually have enough talent to be better than this, but there's also a lot of risk here. If the Mets start slow and get hurt again, this could turn into a total disaster.

Washington Nationals
This is the fun part about baseball. Are the Nationals an atrocious team? Of course they are. Will they spend the season getting pounded by the rest of the NL? Hell yes. We know this because, well, this is what always happens to the Nationals, and it was happening to the Expos for years before that. Having said all that, take a look at the Nationals' roster, especially the line-up. Tell me I couldn't talk you into 85 wins for this team. I bet I could.

Off-season: Some interesting pick-ups for Washington. Jason Marquis, Pudge, Brian Bruney, Adam Kennedy, Matt Capps. The Nationals added veterans in a way that suggests they think they can contend. This team was terrible last year, so you'd have to think any set of off-season moves would have made them better, but I'm genuinely intrigued here.

Line-up: This is the part I really like about this team. Even if you assume that Elijah Dukes is too crazy to play a full season, which he almost certainly is, you still have Zimmerman, Dunn, the very underrated Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan (you heard me, Morgan hit .351 last year after he got traded to Washington). I honestly like this line-up as much as any line-up in the division other than Philadelphia. This team can score runs.

Pitching: Unfortunately, here's where disaster strikes for the Nats. They made some upgrades here, this is the first time in a while Washington has an opening day starter I've heard of, so that's a good start. Still, this team will give up a ton of runs. Fans sitting in the first few rows of the outfield seats should bring gloves, or helmets.

Final Thought: When are we going to see Stephen Strasburg? I'm still betting on opening day. Nothing draws fans like a must see starter going out there every five days. On top of that, Strasburg is, right now, the best pitcher in the Washington organization, at least from a pure stuff standpoint. I don't see a lot of upside in holding him back.

Prediction: The smart money still has Washington in last place. But you can definitely add some wins to last year's total and maybe, just maybe, they can get out of the basement (OK, probably not. Hey, can I get some Expos throwback uniforms this season? How hard is that?).