My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL Central

Before I start, let me just say this. Congratulations Knicks fans! For only 60% of your starting line-up and half your team, you were able to go from being the 6th best team in the east to being the 5th best team in the east. Quite a day in the big city. Let's get to the baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Opening Thought: "Hello, Baxter? Baxter, is that you? Bark twice if you're in Milwaukee."

I read a story a while back about the food at Miller Park. The writer talked about eating for the cycle, which included four different kinds of sausage. The sausage race at Miller Park also includes four kinds of sausage (including, I'm told, chorizo. Yum). I don't really have a joke or a point, I just think more things in life should include four kinds of sausage.

Off-season: Who knew Milwaukee would be the eventual winners of the Zack Greinke sweepstakes? Add the Shaun Marcum trade and the Brewers spent the off-season improving their starting pitching, which is good because Milwaukee's team ERA was only better than Arizona and Pittsburgh in the NL last year. Sure, nobody wants to be the team stuck with Yuniesky Betancourt, but that's just the way it goes sometimes.

Questions: Can the move to the NL help Zack Greinke bounce back? Can Rickie Weeks do that again and stay healthy?

Answers: Hell yes and probably not. Pencil Greinke in for an ERA in the low 3's and 17-20 wins. Not only is he still really good, but you can't underestimate the psychology of getting out of Kansas City. As for Weeks, last season was the first time he played in more than 130 games and it was the first time he hit over .235 while playing more than 100 games. I need to see both of those things happen again before I'm sold.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Fielder and Braun are sure things. Casey McGehee and Corey Hart round out a really strong middle of the order. I know people worry about Hart's strike-outs, but he went .283/31/102 last year with 140 strike-outs. It's not like he can go much higher, right? Right?

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen, but I actually don't hate it too much. John Axford is a perfectly adequate option at closer and Manny Parra's move to the bullpen gives them a solid lefty out there. I think they'll need another right-hander (I would count on getting anything useful from LaTroy Hawkins or Takashi Saito), but I've certainly seen worse bullpens.

Closing Thought: Quick disclaimer, all predictions regarding the Brewers assume that the entire state of Wisconsin won't be on strike/laid off/on fire/abandoned by September.

Prediction: First place, really interesting playoff team with Greinke and Gallardo at the top of the rotation and some chips in their system to trade if they're in contention.

Cincinnati Reds
Opening Thought: "We said we weren't gonna talk about Cincinnati ever, OK? - Is that why you have that shoebox in your closet that says 'Cincinnati'?"

I wrote a whole thing about my trip to the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Great park, nice people, awful team. Since then, the Reds have become decidely less awful, and may be growing into the team that the fans and the stadium deserve.

Off-season: If all the Reds did this off-season was get rid of Aaron Harang, that's not such a bad use of their time. And, as far as I can tell, that is basically is all they did. I know they picked up Edgar Renteria, but he's not even slated to be starting and he apparently doesn't become useful until you get to the World Series.

Questions: Can Edinson Volquez get all the way back to his 2008 form? Are Homer Bailey and Travis Wood ready? Is it finally Jay Bruce's year?

Answers: I think so, I honestly don't know and I think so. Jay Bruce turns 24 on April 3rd, so even though he's been up since 2008, he's just now nearing his prime. If Joey Votto can keep up last year's MVP production and Bruce can add a break-out year of his own...watch out. As for the pitchers, I really like Volquez, we'll just have to see how healthy he is. I'm not sure about Homer Bailey, but Travis Wood strikes me as the kind of guy who settles in quickly and puts together a run of perfectly average 15-win seasons.

My Favorite Thing: I like the balance with the Reds. They certainly have the weapons to score runs, the starting pitching is solid and the bullpen might be my favorite part. Francisco Cordero is another perfectly adequate closer and he'll be set-up Aroldis Chapman and Jose Arredondo. Chapman looks as good as advertised and I've always liked Arredondo.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: It's hard to pick something here. This isn't a perfect team, but they're balanced and they've got good organizational depth so they can keep building. The Reds were even tied for the league lead in fielding percentage last year. I guess the bullpen has some question marks, but I really like the upside there.

Closing Thought: Repeating as a division champ isn't easy. As much as I like the Reds, you have to be really good to go back-to-back and I'm not sure they're that good.

Prediction: Second place and a wild card birth. The NL wild card is going to have to deal with the Phillies, so that's probably where the Cincinnati train stops.

St. Louis Cardinals
Opening Thought: "At the current time I am looking at a number of different fields from which to disseminate which offer is most pursuant to my benefit. What do you want? What do I want? What does anybody want? Leniency. These circumstances are mitigated. Right now. They're mitigated. He knows what I'm talking about. A retainer. Nobody in this town works without a retainer. You think you can find someone who does, you have my blessing. But I think we all know that person isn't going to represent you as well as I can...Re-TAIN-er. Retainer."

Off-season: $8 million to Lance Berkman, 2 years at just over $8 million to Jake Westbrook. I could probably find about 8 million Yankee fans who will tell you that Lance Berkman is 8 million percent finished. Meanwhile, they can't scrape together the money to resign Albert Pujols. St. Louis gets no credit for any moves they make until Pujols is signed or traded.

Questions: Just one, because it's the only one that matters. What happens without Adam Wainwright?

Answers: Bad things, very bad things. I've always thought the fortunes of this team were tied to Chris Carpenter and how healthy he can be, but that was because Wainwright was good for 18-20 wins and a sub 3 ERA and you didn't really have to think about it. Now they have to ask Carpenter to carry this pitching staff on his very fragile shoulders. I like Jamie Garcia just fine, but it could still be a long season in St. Louis, especially with the game's best hitter peaking toward the exit.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. This team still has Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and an underrated Skip Schumaker. Jon Jay, who hit .300 in 287 at-bats last year should replace Berkman in right field by opening day. The Cardinals can hit.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. Can you win a division if Jake Westbrook is your number 2 or 3 starter? No, no you can't. Plus, Ryan Franklin is 37 and didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 3.46 ERA last year.

Closing Thought: "Allegedly, I'm saying your situation would be concurrently improved if I had two-hundred bucks in my pocket right now."

Prediction: Third place, and that's only because I know Dave Duncan can make any pitching staff respectable.

Chicago Cubs
Opening Thought: "fool me once, shame on...shame on you...fool me-you can't get fooled again."

The Cubs have been fooling their fans since the Taft administration. All I wanted to do was go out on a limb and pick the Cubs to finally win one. Then, I looked at their roster and, well, here we are.

Off-season: The Cubs replaced Derek Lee at first base with Carlos Pena. Pena is a .241 career hitter who hit .196 last year. That's right, .196. Not against lefties, against everyone. At least he's also old and way past his prime. Also, Chicago may be attempting to return to the glory days of the last time they almost won a championship but then didn't, signing Kerry Wood as a set-up man. I'm setting the over/under on Wood's first DL stint at May 12th.

Questions: Do the Cubs have an ace? Do the Cubs have a number 3 hitter? Is Alfonso Soriano finished?

Answers: No, no and yes, but that happened years ago, why are you just asking now?

My Favorite Thing: Starlin Castro. Castro hit .300 last year as a 20-year old rookie. Things like power and learning how to steal a base will come with experience and the Cubs can build around Castro for the next 12 years.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: So much to choose from, but I'll go with starting pitching. At least the bullpen has Carlos Marmol, who struck-out 138 batters in 77.2 innings last year. That's not a typo. Marmol recorded 233 outs last year, 138 by strike-out. That's crazy.

Closing Thought: The Cubs make me sad. Not only have they gone without a title since 1908, but they aren't even close to one now. This team is old, lacking in talent and just not that good. Help appears to be on the way from the farm system (Trey McNutt, Brett Jackson), but we've heard that before in Chicago and just this off-season they dealt Chris Archer to Tampa.

Prediction: Fourth place. The season is already over for St. Louis' ace, and it's not even March yet. And still, the Cubs won't be better than their rivals.

Houston Astros
Opening Thought: "I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality I could be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves." (maybe I need to explain some of these...Astros...this is from the episode when Homer was an astronaut...some of these are just for me)

Off-season: Houston is another team that seems to have napped through the winter. It seems like they've got a bunch of young guys and they've decided to run them out there this season. I like the attitude, I don't know if they'll like the results.

Questions: What now with Carlos Lee? How good is JA Happ?

Answers: Best case scenario, he starts off hot and the Astros can pawn him off on some unsuspecting contender (as a Yankee fan, I'm shaking my head somberly). As for Happ, very good, I think.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris (who wasn't that good last year but should get better). Teams that are hard to score against are always worth keeping an eye on, and Houston might be hard to score against.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Offense. Specifically, I'm not sure what to make of it. The numbers from Hunter Pence are almost identical for each of the last three years. .280ish, 25HR, 80-90 RBI. Pence turns 28 in April and I'm pretty sure that's what he is. So, who carries this offense? The aging Carlos Lee? Chris Johnson? I'm not sure anybody will.

Closing Thought: This division has too many teams. You can really get bogged down in the middle.

Prediction: Fifth place, but I think the Astros are the wild card in this division. I know what the Cubs are and I know what the Cardinals are without Adam Wainwright, but I'm not really sure about the Astros. Could they finish second, or even contend for the top? Sure. Could they finish last? Well, maybe not in this division.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Opening Thought: "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things that I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul."

The Pirates haven't been even remotely close to possibly contending since Barry Bonds left. Even the Royals have been decent a couple of times in the last 20 years. Even the Nationals have been OK once or twice. The Pirates are just an abomination.

Off-season: The Pirates spent $5 million on Lyle Overbay. I don't even know what to say about that. Do they believe he's the missing piece that'll vault them to 68 wins? They'd be better off just giving five dollars to every fan who shows up in Pittsburgh this year.

Questions: Which Pirate gets to finish the season with the Yankees?

Answers: My money's on Joel Hanrahan.

My Favorite Thing: The Pirates should be fun to watch. Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen. If they actually keep everyone and develop some pitching, Pittsburgh is about three years away from contending. Of course, we've been here before.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: One look at Pittsburgh's pitching staff caused me to immediately look up the single season record for runs allowed by a team (answer: the 1899 Cleveland Spiders who allowed 1252 runs in 154 games).

Closing Thought: When do the Steelers report to training camp?

Prediction: Last place. Another long season in Pittsburgh.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL West

The 13 feet of snow lingering outside your window may serve as a cold reminder that it's still winter, but pitchers and catchers reported this week, which means it's almost time for baseball. This year, I'm starting with the NL West, because that's where the champs live. Also, it's the division I care about the least.

Colorado Rockies
Opening Thought: IF YA SMEEELLLLLLL....WHAT THE ROCKIES...ARE COOKIN'!

Did you know the Rockies finished tied for 13th in baseball in runs allowed last year? Is it possible that all the Coors Field hysteria we heard in this team's early years had less to do with the mile high air and more to do with the combination of awful pitching and steroid monsters that defined late 90's baseball?

Off-season: Colorado signed Jason Giambi to a minor league contract. Did they lose a bet? Are they thinking of him as a mascot? I guess anytime you can sign a guy who had 6 homeruns and 47 strike-outs for you in 176 at-bats last year, you have to do it. I'm not wild about the Jorge De La Rosa contract either. Over $10 million a year is a lot for a guy who's 29 and pretty much is what he is now. At least it's only for 2 years. Jose Lopez is an interesting pick-up, we'll talk more about him later.

Questions: How dominant can Ubaldo Jimenez be? I don't like the rest of Colorado's rotation that much, I think he'll need to carry them. How good can Carlos Gonzalez be? This line-up has nice pieces all over the field, but they need Gonzalez to be that big-time number three hitter who powers the offense.

Answers: Very dominant and extremely good. I'm all-in on Jimenez and CarGo. Ubaldo is right in the middle of what should be his prime. He slowed down after a fast start last year and I'm hoping he learned something about pacing himself. Gonzalez is 25 and hit .336 last year. If he can just learn to take a few more walks and strike-out a little less, he'll be a legit MVP candidate for the next seven years.

My Favorite Thing: I like Colorado's depth a lot. Ryan Spilborghs is a nice fourth outfielder who can hit lefties. Ty Wigginton brings some power and crazy versatility, as well as insurance at both corner infield spots if Ian Stewart can't get it together or if Todd Helton doesn't have another good year in him.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Huston Street spent plenty of time on the DL last year, and when he was healthy he wasn't that great (3.61 ERA, 5 blown saves in 25 opportunities). Only one of those blown saves came after August 20th and he finished strong, but I'm not convinced. Matt Lindstrom is an interesting plan B at closer, but he's 31 now and doesn't look to have much left. They could have some minor league help on the way, but for now this is a concern.

Closing Thought: Back to Jose Lopez. He had an awful 2010, but so did everyone in Seattle. In the two seasons before that, Lopez looked like a promising young second baseman (2008 - age 24, .297, 17HR, 89RBI; 2009 - age 25, .272, 25HR, 96RBI). At age 27, he moves into a better line-up and a better park for hitting. Either he has a big year or he's pretty much done.

Prediction: First place, probably not enough pitching to advance in the playoffs.

San Francisco Giants
Opening Thought: "There's two kinds of people in this world. Those who get stomped on and those who do the stomping...that famous guy said it. What's his name? Uh, oh yeah, Jesus!"

I could not have been happier for Giants' fans last fall when they won. The Giants always seemed like one of the quietly tortured franchises in sports. The rival Dodgers have a surprisingly high five world series titles since the move to LA (seriously, I know a lot about baseball and I wouldn't have guessed more than 3), while the Giants hadn't one won since 1954. Felt to me a lot like Yankees/Red Sox pre-2004, only without the unyielding hype. Anyway, good for them.

Off-season: I didn't like the Aubrey Huff signing last year, and even though I was wrong about that, I still don't like the re-signing this year, especially for a two-year deal when they've got Brandon Belt on the way up. I really don't like the Tejada deal, even for one year. Tejada is 36 (at least) and his .269 batting average last year was his worst since 2001. He's pretty much all downside. They've got a couple of promising young shortstops in their system, so maybe they just wanted a one-year stopgap guy, but still, the only way Tejada is worth $6.5 million this year is if he digs up $5 million while searching for buried treasure beneath McCovey Cove.

Questions: Can this team's pitching get its offense, which still looks awful, back to the post-season for a run at a repeat? Will there be a championship hangover? What happened to Pablo Sandoval?

Answers: Maybe, probably and I have no idea. If Pablo bounces back to form, I think he and Buster Posey can bring enough offense to carry this team to just enough wins, but Pablo was benched for most of the 2010 post-season, that's not great. I don't know where he goes from here.

My Favorite Thing: Obviously, that would be starting pitching. Don't expect another hot start from Barry Zito, but do expect a big year from Madison Bumgarner. Tim Lincecum's mid-year doldrums in 2010 should make Giants' fans a little nervous, but on paper, this rotation should be able to compete with anyone. The bullpen isn't bad either.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: It's a tie between offense and age. San Francisco's line-up has a weird mix of really young talent and really old guys who were never all that good to begin with. When you add the injury risk of "veteran" (old) guys to the relative lack of depth the Giants have, you get a formula for some interesting (and not in a good way) starting line-ups over the course of the season. That's especially true when their best hitter is a catcher who needs rest from time to time.

Closing Thought: As I look at this roster, I'm having a hard time figuring out how they won a world series with this team. I couldn't hate San Francisco's offense more. I'm all about the power of good pitching, but you have to score sometimes.

Prediction: Second place and probably no wild card. I just don't see it, but I didn't really see it last year either and they won it all, so there's that.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Opening Thought: "sometimes you think you have true love and then you catch the early flight home from San Diego and a couple of nude people jump out of your bathroom blindfolded like a goddamn magic show ready to double team your girlfriend."

In yet another example of why nobody should ever get married, divorce has ruined the Los Angeles Dodgers. The ownership situation in LA has been a catastrophe for what feels like forever now. The problem is, a big market team like LA can't just skip off-seasons like this. They missed out on Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, John Lackey last year, etc etc. I'm not saying they should have signed all of those guys, I'm not even saying they would have landed any of them, but a team like the Dodgers should be in on the top free agents, and when they aren't, it's a problem.

Off-season: Juan Uribe is super-versatile, and the power he brings at second base fits in nicely with a team that doesn't get enough power from first base or right field. I like Tony Gwynn Jr. as a fourth outfielder and a pinch-hitter/pinch-runner. On the other hand, $12 million for 36 year old Hideki Kuroda seems a bit steep when you consider Kuroda went 11-13 last year. More importantly, Manny Ramirez is gone and they didn't bother replacing him, or more accurately, replacing what he was supposed to be, which was one of their big bats. Sure, he didn't actually do that last year, but they didn't go anywhere last year either. If this team wants to make the play-offs, they need somebody to be what they wanted Manny to be.

Questions: What is Matt Kemp and can he carry this team? Who winds up playing left field?

Answers: Matt Kemp is the next Carlos Beltran, which means no, he cannot carry a team all by himself. My money for left field would be on Marcus Thames, who hits whenever teams let him play, and even though he is an awful defensive outfielder, I think the Dodgers will need his power.

My Favorite Thing: Ummm...Dodger dogs? There's nothing that really jumps out at me about the Dodgers. I don't hate the whole team, but there's nothing I really love either. Kershaw and Billingsley are a nice top of the rotation, but I wouldn't say they stand out.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: I'd have to say the back and of the rotation. I've never been a huge fan of Ted Lilly, and Jon Garland is one of those "innings-eaters", which is basically a nice way of saying he doesn't win much but he doesn't mind staying out there and getting pounded so you don't have to use your bullpen.

Closing Thought: I'm interested to see if Don Mattingly inherits Joe Torre's penchant for destroying relief pitchers. I'm sure Jonathan Broxton is interested too.

Prediction: Third place. This team should actually have some upside, but after a few pretty disappointing years, I need to see it before I'll believe it.

San Diego Padres
Opening Thought: "discovered by the Germans in 1904, they named it San Diego which, of course, in German means a whale's vagina."

I believe my take on the Padres at the beginning of last season was "Boooooooooo!". That was immediately followed by San Diego spending basically the whole season in first place. I wouldn't say I was wrong about the Padres as much as I would say I underestimated how bad the rest of the National League was.

Off-season: Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson and Aaron Harang aren't exactly the west coast version of the big three, ya know? Jason Bartlett looks like a nice addition, but he's 31 now and 2009 was really his only good year. I'm concerned Jorge Cantu may be finished, and the spacious Petco Park won't help him prove me wrong.

I've send this before, but I'll say it again now. When the highlight of your off-season is trading away your best player, that's not great. It's even more not great when none of the guys you got back seem ready to be huge factors this season. I'm not saying I hate the package they got from Boston, but I'm not saying I love it either (take a look at Casey Kelly's stats at double-A Portland last year, ouch!)

Questions: Can the Padres get close to 90 wins again? How will they replace Adrian Gonzalez and his production? Can Mat Latos start 150 games?

Answers: I don't see how, they won't and probably not but it may be worth a try. The toughest part about pitching to the Padres this year will be figuring out who to walk now that Gonzalez is gone. Maybe Ryan Ludwick.

My Favorite Thing: Has to be youth. Youth is only good if it develops into actual major league talent at some point (for example, Wil Venable is 28 now, it's possible he's just not going to happen), but it's still fun to watch and talk about what the team could be in a few years. Cameron Maybin is still only 23, and we ought to start seeing something from him this year. Guys like that will make this team watchable.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pretty much everyone who isn't Mat Latos or Cameron Maybin. Personally, I don't see a ton of promise in San Diego's young guys other than Latos and Maybin, and it's not like they have a long history of developing their young talent into great players. Bullpen strength really carried this team last year, and relief pitching is a real variable from year to year.

Closing Thought: "...and I'm Ron Burgundy, go f*ck yourself, San Diego."

Prediction: Fourth place. I could very well be wrong about this team again, you can see my opinion of this division isn't exactly through the roof, but I have a hard time seeing the same team massively overachieving for a second straight year after trading their best player.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Opening Thought: "No milk will ever be our milk."

I'm done with Arizona. DONE! Every year I pick them to win, or at least be good, every year they suck. They're like a baseball version of every M. Night Shyamalan movie since sixth sense. Well I won't get twisted again!

Off-season: I've always liked Xavier Nady, but I always liked Claudell Washington for some reason too, that didn't make him good. I have to admit to not being sold on a 33 year old J.J. Putz as the new closer, but last year's numbers say maybe I should be (65 K's in 54 IP). Of course, if you're not winning, picking up a potentially strong closer isn't all that helpful. Juan Miranda seems to be the new first baseman after a trade with the Yankees, I hope D'Backs' fans enjoy strike-outs.

Questions: Can getting out of Pittsburgh breathe some life into Zach Duke? Will last year's almost perfect game be the highlight of Armando Galarraga's career? Did you know Melvin Mora was still alive?

Answers: Probably not if he's just going to another crappy team, almost definitely and yes, I did know that. Truthfully, I do wonder if a change of scenery will do anything for the 27 year old Duke, who's never pitched a full season to an ERA below 4. I'm starting to think he was just never all that good.

My Favorite Thing: Juston Upton. Upton is still only 23 and if he can manage to actually play a healthy season, he should be a top 10 player. I can't wait for him to be a Yankee, Brian Cashman should starting putting together the sampler platter of crappy prospects now, just so it's ready whenever Arizona comes calling.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Lots to choose from, but I'll have to go with starting pitching. ESPN has Ian Kennedy as this team's number 1 starter. Just last year this team was looking at Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and a possibly returning Brandon Webb. Now? Ian Kennedy, the guy some people in New York were calling the next Mike Mussina, right up until they saw him pitch against big league hitters.

Closing Thought: You can't spell Diamondbacks without "I am bad". Seriously, you can't, all those letters are right in there.

Prediction: Last place. I don't see a lot of hope for this team unless the pitching turns out to be way better than it looks. They might score some runs on days when Chris Young isn't striking out four times, but they don't have one starting pitcher I'd want on my team. That's bad times.