Advice for College Students

I saw a New York Times article recently which advertised advice for new college students.  I work at a University, so I decided to take a look.  First of all, the tweet suggested that I was about to read 25 tips for college students, but it was really seven tips that had a few different sub-tips.  Nice click bait New York Times!  You used to have prestige.  Secondly, the advice was from recent college graduates, and it was terrible.  Not all of it, but way too much of it. 

I decided I could do better.  Then I got distracted for a little while by work and TV and stuff.  But then I wrote this.  I'm not trying to be too tough on the recent college grads the Times coerced into doing this, they don't know any better.  As always, I'm just trying to provide a public service.  I should also mention, in the event that someone I don't already know reads this, that this does not reflect the views of the school I work at, or any school I've ever worked at, or any other human being.

1) Extend Yourself
        - Be willing to learn as you go
        - Challenge yourself to do something new

This first section is a little hit or miss.  The article specifically cites laundry doing as a skill you should be willing to learn as you go.  That's a bad idea.  It only takes one week of not doing laundry to make you the smelly kid in you dorm.  Don't be that guy.  There are plenty of skills that you'll do just fine picking up as you go through your first year, but hygiene related skills like washing clothes and showering every day should be ready on day one. 

Challenging yourself to do something new is a good idea, but keep in mind that going to college is already something new and scary so maybe give yourself a break.  You'll have plenty of chances to do something new in your four years at college, you don't have to go looking for something all the time.

2) Do the Work!
        - Go to class unless you're half dead.
        - Outline your papers and footnote everything.
        - Get tutoring if you need it.

The first bullet is terrible advice.  Look, I'm not saying don't go to class, but there are plenty of perfectly valid reasons to miss class.  I took Spanish 1 at 8AM on Tuesdays and Thursdays my first semester.  I had taken Spanish every year from 7th grade through 12th grade, and since my elementary and high schools didn't care a lot about me actually learning a language, I basically took Spanish 1 six times.  I didn't feel like I needed to wake up for Spanish class, and I mostly didn't.  I still got an A in Spanish 1 because I'm not a moron and the professor wasn't mean. 

The other two things are fine, I guess.  Outlining your papers is a fine idea if you're into that kind of thing.  I'm not.  I don't really understand the value of footnotes.  Some professors are going to ask you to use footnotes anyway.  Why add superfluous footnotes to your life?

3) Understand the System and Work It
        - Expect the Administration not to care about you.  Professors, on the other hand, can be your greatest allies.
        - Develop relationships with department secretaries.
        - Credit cards with high interest rates are scams.
        - Take advantage of internship opportunities during the school year.

This whole section is a mess.  Some administrators will care about you, and some faculty will too, and some other people won't.  People are just people, and some of them are good people and some of them are bad people.  It doesn't matter what they do for a living.  Also keep in mind that faculty, even though they work at a college, are still lazy teachers who don't work summers.  So, if you need a reference in June, good luck with faculty.

High interest credit cards are scams?  Thanks Captain Obvious.  This seems to be the only vague mention of money or debt in the whole article, and we'll get back to that, but yes, don't sign up for the first credit card you see.  On the other hand, you're a freshman in college and you don't have any money, so you may need to get some kind of credit card so you don't starve.  Just be smart about it.

I've known plenty of students who did internships during the school year.  You know what they didn't do?  Sleep and/or have any fun.  I'm not saying don't ever do an internship, but pace yourself a little.  You have your whole life to go to work everyday and never sleep or have fun.

4) Be Yourself
        - Don't compare yourself to other students.
        - Don't be sad if you're a first generation student and you don't feel like you fit in.
        - Shed your inhibitions and prior concepts of who people can be.

I don't have any major quarrels with this section.  Being yourself is a solid idea, and so is letting other people be themselves.  You're 18, so you probably have no idea who yourself is yet, but that's OK as long as you're trying.

5) Tend To Yourself
        - College is like being high, don't lose track of who you are and where you want to go.
        - Sometimes a mental health day is in order.
        - There's a bunch of other stuff in this section about taking naps and showers.

Now this is what I call advice!  Take mental health days.  Lots of them.  You know what you never get to do when you get a real job?  Take a day off because you're just sort of not feeling up to going outside.  College students, if they're doing it right, are more in charge of their own time then anyone else in the world except retired people.  Take advantage of that.

Also, naps are good but they're a slippery slope.  If you get into the habit of napping you will eventually lay down for a 20 minute nap and wake up 6 hours later.  That's just the way it goes.  Try not to miss anything too important.

6) Develop People Skills
        - No one cares about your high school accomplishments.
        - Freshmen quickly form close groups that disastrously fall apart, try not to do that.
        - Don't hook up with the boy across the hall on your first night of college.
        - Think about where you want to set your boundaries sexually.

Saying no one cares about your high school accomplishments is a little harsh.  High school things shouldn't go on your resume or anything, but if you make good friends who care about you, I'm sure they'll want to hear what you were like in high school.  I always ask students that question.  The answers are usually interesting.

Yes, your freshman year friend group will absolutely fall apart disastrously.  That's a true story.  That doesn't mean you won't have fun with them first.  Just don't lend them large amounts of money or give them a kidney or anything. 

Hooking up with the person across the hall on the first night is kind of a mixed bag.  It's probably OK on a big campus.  At big schools you can meet someone once and never again, especially if you're trying for never again.  But at small schools?  Yeah, you'll never be able to avoid anyone, especially if they're the same year as you. 

7) Don't Get Stuck
        - Do what you love and you'll be good at what you do.
        - Take your time.
        - If you're not having an exciting college experience, change something.

This whole section was mostly OK. The main thing is, don't be afraid to change your major.  Your parents probably read something online about how a certain major always gets you a job and money, and now they're making you choose that major.  You're a grown-up now and you don't have to listen to those people anymore.  Major in something you like.  Or if you can't find something you like, at least major in something easy that won't bother you too much (that's how I found Psychology).  There's always jobs to get if you're willing to work hard at something.

This whole article said almost nothing about money, so listen.  You're going to run up a lot of debt in college, and that's OK.  Just don't be too stupid about it.  Sometimes you can spend money on silly things.  I bought like 12 European soccer jerseys my senior year.  I think I still have one of them.  That was OK though, it was fun while I was doing it.  However, I also put a $1200 stereo system in my car senior year.  I got rid of that car over that summer.  I knew I was going to have to get rid of the car soon, because it was old and I took terrible care of it, but I got the stereo system anyway.  That was stupid and I should have known better.  You don't have to be super smart, just a little smart.

Oh also.  Guess who doesn't care about your GPA?  Everyone in the world.  You'll know pretty early on if you want to go to law school or something, and then you should know about GPA requirements for law schools, but for the most part you'll be fine.  That one B- in statistics isn't going to haunt you forever.  I got a Bsomething in statistics because I took it during a semester when I randomly stopped going to class for like three weeks because I didn't really feel like it.  When I interviewed for grad school they asked me about it and I just gave them some story about still learning lots of good stuff or whatever.  Worked out fine for me.

This article also never mentioned alcohol, which is strange because people will mention it all the time once you get to campus.  I can't really give advice about drinking except to say that if you find yourself vomiting or involuntarily falling down, you probably aren't doing it right.  Anyway, college is fun and you should have fun.  Don't hurt anybody and don't hurt yourself too much and you'll be fine. 

Sean and Soccer Save the World

Years ago, during the 2010 World Cup final http://somethingclever13.blogspot.com/2010/07/two-teams-one-cup.html, I commented that any part of life could be improved by employing the same yellow card/red card system used in soccer games.  I always meant to elaborate on that, but then we all got really into planking, and then the 2012 election happened and I just sort of forgot about it.  It's never too late to make the world a better place though, so here goes.

First of all, if you're not a soccer fan, let me briefly review how cards work in soccer (and if you are a soccer fan...ya know...why?).  If you're playing soccer and you do something mildly alarming, like accidentally kick a guy in the shin while going for the ball, or hold the back of someone's jersey so they try to get the ball but can't and it's pretty hilarious but also not allowed, then the referee may run up to you and waive a yellow card at you.  The referee will also write your name down, I've noticed.  A yellow card is basically a warning to please stop doing dickish things to your fellow soccer players or else.  Or else what?

Well, let's say you do something very alarming, like picking the ball up and spiking it onto the referee's head, or intentionally kicking a fellow soccer man directly in the testicles.  At that point, the referee (assuming his head isn't bleeding too badly) will run up to you and waive a red card in your face.  When that happens, you have to leave and no more soccering for you today.  I suppose you could go to a park down the street or something and play in a different game, but the people in the park would probably ask you why you left your original game, and you'd say you kicked someone in the genitals, and then they would probably say they don't really want to play with you.

You also get a red card if you get a second yellow card in the same game, and it seems that if you get a second yellow card in two different games in the same tournament you have to sit out the next game after that.  It seems odd that two overly aggressive attempts to steal the ball would result in the same penalty as punching a goalie in the face for no reason, but I guess it's the only way to make the yellow cards meaningful.

Clearly, this would be an excellent addition to everyday life, so the question is how do we implement it effectively?  First of all, I'm only worried about American implementation.  I can't control the rest of the world and for all I know Europe and South America already use soccer cards in everyday life, those people love soccer.  I can't force Canada to do anything, and honestly they're already so polite they may not need this.  So just America, at least for starters.

Step one is easy.  Just have the Department of the Interior mail every American citizen their cards.  I can't imagine two cards for everyone would be all that expensive, although they would need some technology in them and we'll get to that in a minute.  The technology probably rules out getting them online, although I guess we could just all use our phones.  I don't know, people like getting mail sometimes.  I've always wanted a pen pal.

This also raises the question of whether or not kids get cards.  I think we need to hash out the process and consequences a little more before we decide if we can trust kids with this responsibility, so let's put a pin in that and get back to it. 

Alright so everybody has cards, now what?  Well, I think, and some people are probably going to be a little uncomfortable with this, but I think the only way to do this correctly is for everyone to get chips implanted in their heads.  I thought about this for 30 or 45 seconds and I really can't think of a better plan.  Now before you say no, just think about a couple of things.  First of all, we're not putting chips in your brain, just in your head.  Under the skin somewhere, but outside your skull.  That's not so bad, right?  More importantly, this only works to improve the world if we all play along.  If you try to give a stranger a yellow card and they just run away and don't give you their name, the system ceases to work.  If there's a chip in your card and a chip in the stranger's head, his yellow card is immediately recorded in the card database and he can run all he wants, he still has a yellow card.

This brings us to the other piece of technology we'll be needing.  Hand held cards are good for work and grocery stores and stuff, but we would absolutely need to integrate the card system into driving.  This shouldn't be that hard.  Every car would need to be equipped with a sensor and a voice activated card system.  If you need to give another car a card while driving, you would just say "Car in front of me, yellow card" and then the car in front of you would get a yellow card.  Ideally, yellow lights would flash in his car for a minute to alert him.  This would be fun but not entirely necessary.

Whenever you get a chance, when you get home or whatever, you would just log into the database and put in the specific reasons for whatever cards you issued that day.  There has to be some review process.  We can't just have people issuing cards with no oversight.  We would need a team of card administrators reviewing all cards issued and reasons given, and either approving or disallowing them.  This leads to the next big element...valid reasons for giving a card.

You have to understand that this system isn't meant to replace our criminal justice system.  If somebody shoots you in the face or robs your house or something, they would still go to jail.  Cards are for those things that are really annoying and everybody hates you for doing, but aren't necessarily illegal.  At the same time, we can't let people use the cards to be mean or get revenge for stuff.  If you ask someone to lunch and they say no, you can't give them a yellow card.  People have the right to not have lunch with you. 

We'd start with a committee to generate a starter list of valid reasons for cards.  The committee would consist of the following people:
Me (obviously)
Neil Degrasse Tyson
Norm MacDonald
Emma Stone
Ronald Reagan's Ghost (I know, but everybody has to feel represented on the committee.  We can't have an entire country of Republicans refusing to participate in the card system)
Beyoncé or Jay-Z, but not both of them
Slash
Ian Darke (for soccer knowledge and Britishness)
Elizabeth Warren
Stephen Hawking (I know we already have a scientist, but I'm just looking for smart people, multiple scientists were bound to happen)
The Pope (not the last guy, but definitely the current guy)
Gibbs
Stephen Colbert or Jon Stewart, but again, not both of them
Ellen Page
Hemingway's Ghost (as long as we're inviting ghosts)
Morgan Freeman
Tina Fey (I'm iffy on Tina, but the committee needs more women)

I'm open to other suggestions for the committee.  It clearly needs a few more women.  I thought about Kirsten Gillebrand but we already have a Senator and the Senate already has enough power.  I would think the committee could get pretty big, maybe around 30 people. 

Once the committee generated a starter list, we could roll out the system, but we could continue to add things to the list as they come up.  Any new reason entered into the database would be reviewed by an administrator.  If the administrator saw some validity, the reason would be submitted to the committee and it would need to be approved by a 2/3 majority.  Committee members would have lifetime appointments.  When they died, the remaining members of the committee would replace them in a very secretive process that I really can't tell you about because it's a secret.

Since I'm on the committee, I can give you a quick preview of some of the things that will earn you a card...

Yellow Cards
-Driving below the speed limit on a one lane road
-Using the self check-out at the grocery store when you clearly don't know how to use the self check-out at the grocery store
-Coming into my office without commenting on the awesome art that now resides in my office
-Watching Thursday night football when your fantasy team isn't directly impacted
-Telling people you're "from New York" when you're actually from upstate New York.  North of Westchester is just meth labs and broken dreams.
-Wearing a bike helmet as an adult
-Not being willing to admit that SVU is unwatchable without Stabler
-Playing video games as an adult
-Trying to get on the subway or an elevator before other people get off
-Walking slowly on the sidewalk (New York City only)

Red Cards
-Being mean to an animal in any way that falls short of breaking the law (stinging insects do not in any way count as animals and you can be as mean to them as you want)
-Leaving a crappy tip for no good reason
-Burping loudly in public and then reacting as though you've accomplished something or done something funny.
-Day drinking after you've graduated college.  You could literally say to people "go home, you're drunk" and they would have to listen to you.  How fun would that be?

What happens when you get a card?  Yellow cards are easy.  Yellow cards are just a warning, so nothing really has to happen.  We're not doing the whole two yellow cards equals a red card thing because I think that's silly in real life, so yellow cards have no concrete consequences, you just feel shame, which should be enough.  You could even issue some joking yellow cards to friends, but we'd keep an eye on you because too many joke yellow cards would corrupt the system.  If you issued too many joke yellow cards, me or Neil would show up personally to issue you a red card and take your cards away for some indefinite period of time.  Once you were cardless, people could do whatever they wanted to you.  You don't want that.

Red cards are tough though.  Part of the efficacy of the red card is the immediacy of the impact.  You get a red card and then you leave.  There's no appeal or second opinion, you just leave.  So, ideally, if you were driving and you got a red card, your car would automatically drive you to your house and then shut off and refuse to start again for 24 hours.  In general, a red card would ban you from participating in whatever activity you were doing incorrectly for some period of time.  We'd have to figure out how we define certain activities.  If you got a red card for being a crappy tipper, would you be banned from eating for 24 hours or banned from that particular restaurant for a year?  Something else for the committee to consider.  

Anyway, I think we could only let people give red cards for pre-approved reasons.  If somebody does something you think should be a red card, but it isn't on the list, then you can't give the card.  You can give them a yellow card and suggest that the committee make the offense a red card, and then maybe it would be a red card in the future.  We'd all have to have some patience with the system at first while we worked out the kinks.  I promise it'll be worth it.

Erroneous red cards would be very bad.  If you're caught giving somebody a red card for something they didn't actually do, you would most likely have to serve significant prison time.  Same goes for ignoring a red card that has been appropriately issued to you. That's really the only way to keep people in line.  Everybody needs to respect the system or it won't work. 

Back to whether or not kids get cards.  I feel like they should.  Bad parenting isn't punished nearly enough in our society.  I think allowing kids to give red cards to their parents would really raise the bar a little bit.  Remember, you could only give red cards for pre-approved reasons, so there's a defense in place to keep kids from inappropriately using the cards against their parents.  I think for kids, instead of prison time for an erroneous red card, we would probably just have to take their cards away until they turned 18.  I think this would all work out just fine.

Once we get the system in place and we get a good working list of red card offenses, I think this is going to go really well.  The best part is, people are always complaining that Americans don't respect soccer enough, and we still won't, but now we can give those people yellow cards for complaining.

The Big Show

I have to say that I'm not a big fan of how Fox is handling this first debate.  For one thing, I don't understand why they felt the need to do one real debate with the top ten candidates in the polls and then one much less real debate with the other seven.  It kind of seems like we're saying that if you aren't polling in the top ten in August, you don't have a real chance to win.  That might be true for some people, but it still seems a little early for that kind of weeding out. 

Why not do two debates and just randomly split the field?  Or, since we're doing more than one debate anyway, why not split the field into three debates randomly so everyone gets a chance to actually talk.  You could run them on three consecutive nights.  How would this not be good television for Fox?  Why am I the only one around here thinking with my brain?

I suppose the concern is that if you did three debates on three consecutive nights, the people in the third debate would have an advantage, having heard what the people in the earlier debates said and how the audience responded to it.  Maybe they'd even have a night to poll test some stuff.  Honestly though, the chances of any of these people saying something they haven't said 100 times before is pretty minimal. 

Also, Fox is a news network.  Can't they exercise some editorial judgment here and not just blindly go with the polls?  We all know Ben Carson and Ted Cruz aren't going to be President.  Meanwhile, some of the guys at the kiddie debate were at least serious people, who probably will also not be President, but still.  You don't have to like him, but Rick Perry was the Governor of a huge state for 15 years, and tonight he debated at 5PM because Ben Carson and Donald Trump are polling well with people who couldn't find the United States on a map of North America.  Fox is making me feel sorry for Rick Perry and Rick Santorum.  My two least favorite Ricks.  I don't like this.  Let's just get started, OK?

Tonight's debate is being moderated by Chris Wallace, Bret Baier and Megyn Kelly.  Wallace is the closest thing Fox has to a real journalist, and I'm not entirely sure why he can't just moderate this debate on his own.  The other two...well...Megyn Kelly has done this before at least, but that doesn't mean she did it well.  And Bret Baier?  You'd have a better debate if you replaced him with an actual bear.  Where's Shepard Smith when you need him?

8:50PM - It appears that between the first debate and now, everyone on Fox agreed that Carly Fiorina won the first debate.  That was not what I saw, but I have to admit that Brit Hume probably knows what Republican primary voters like better than I do.

8:53PM - Fox's pre-debate panel appears to be getting paid by the number of times they say Donald Trump's name.

8:56PM - Megyn had to call the candidates out four or five times before they actually came out to the stage.  Looks like nobody went to rehearsal.

8:57PM - Just a super weird start.  All ten guys came out and stood in a line in front of the podiums while Megyn and Bret peppered them with questions like "Are you nervous?" and "What do you think of this crowd?".  Then Bret finally let them go to their podiums.  Then Megyn said these guys are probably all glad Carly Fiorina isn't here.  Seriously, did I watch the wrong debate this afternoon?

9:01PM - Fox has been asking viewers to submit questions via Facebook that they can use during the debate.  I always hate that.  You have a whole network full of supposed journalists, but your game plan involves taking questions from internet trolls.  Every network does this, and it is always stupid.

9:04PM - Bret starts by asking the candidates to raise their hand if they will not make a pledge to support the eventual winner and not run an independent campaign if they lose.  Trump's hand went up immediately, saying that he needs to respect the winner.  Rand Paul jumped right on him saying that Trump is used to buying politicians so he's already hedging his bets (in case the eventual winner can't be bought, is I assume Rand's point).  Rand should have won that exchange pretty easily, but the crowd's reaction was sort of mixed.  I think it scares Republicans that Trump is bringing people into the process that are loyal to Trump but not the party, or reality.

9:08PM - Solid minute from Rubio about how this election can't just be about resumes, and he'll make the Republicans the party of the future.  Make a note to keep an eye on Rubio, he may actually know stuff.

9:10PM - Bush says "In Florida, they called me Jeb because I earned it".  I don't know what that means, but I guess Jeb is a compliment in Florida. 

9:11PM - Megyn was trying to ask Trump about his habit of calling women fat pigs and disgusting animals.  His response was 1) be completely dismissive of Megyn 2) say he doesn't have time for political correctness and 3) threaten to stop being nice to Megyn.  There you go.

9:14PM - Ted Cruz still looks like a muppet.

9:15PM - Bret asked Christie about New Jersey being an economic catastrophe.  Christie responded "if you think it's bad now, you should have seen it when I got there".  Yikes.  Then Christie rattled off a list of Republican economic policies that he put into place in New Jersey.  After years of deficit cutting and regulation busting, New Jersey is a dumpster fire.  Ummm, Chris needs to re-group a little.  Somebody get him a meatball sandwich.

9:18PM - Huckabee suggests using the 5th and 14th amendments to outlaw abortion under all circumstances saying "the Supreme Court is not the supreme being".  Roe v Wade happened in 1973.  Same sex marriage supporters should make a note of that.  That argument is far from over for people like Mike.

9:19PM - Rand is having fun pointing out that ISIS rides around in a billion dollars worth of U.S. Humvees.  Rand then suggested that maybe we shouldn't be handing out weapons all over the middle east.  What an interesting idea.  Maybe don't give everyone weapons.  Can we do that?

9:21PM - John Kasich is pretty good at debating.  He successfully defended his use of the Medicare expansion and then talked about providing care for mentally ill people.  Put Kasich in my maybe column for now.

9:23PM - Jeb proposed fixing immigration instead of using it as a wedge issue.  Trump hasn't insulted anyone in a few minutes so he has to be getting pretty punchy.

9:24PM - Trump, "if it weren't for me, you wouldn't even be talking about illegal immigration".  OK well that's not true, but that never stops Donald.  Wallace asked him twice what specific evidence he has that the Mexican government is sending criminals over the border.  In a shocking twist, Trump was not able to provide evidence. 

9:31PM - Wallace keeps trying to ask about illegal immigration.  Nobody seems to want to answer him, except to say that everyone is in favor of building a giant wall.  Rubio finally pointed out that someone could dig a tunnel under the wall.  Put Marco in the maybe column too, even though he's still in favor of building the giant wall even though he openly admits walls are pretty easy to conquer.

9:35PM - Ted Cruz is not for amnesty.  He is very much for hearing the sound of Ted Cruz' voice.

9:36PM - Christie was apparently appointed to his job in the Bush administration on September 10, 2001.  Sounds like Chris would be a hell of a good luck charm.  I wouldn't go to Atlantic City with him.

9:38PM - Rand says we need to use the 4th amendment to get warrants to collect records from terrorists and not collect records from other people.  Chris is not a fan of getting warrants.  Chris also appears to be employing the Guliani style "September 11th is the answer to every question" strategy.  I don't recall that working out too well for Rudy.

9:40PM - Apparently multiple people, including military Generals and the State department, have told Ted that you can't defeat ISIS until you change the situation on the ground in Iraq and Syria so it's not so conducive to radicalization.  Ted thinks the idea that there's not a military solution to ISIS is nonsense.  You can see why I find the idea of a Cruz Presidency slightly problematic.

9:42PM - Jeb admits that he wouldn't have gone into Iraq knowing now that the intelligence was faulty, rejecting Megyn's argument that since people died in Iraq it isn't OK to say it was a mistake.  That was pretty good.  His answer to what he would do now was less good.

9:44PM - Ben Carson says "I wasn't sure I was going to get to talk again".  Like Kelly, Wallace and Baier, I had pretty much forgotten Ben was there.  He gave an answer similar to what Bobby Jindal said earlier, saying that everything will be OK if we just stop fighting politically correct wars and let the military do whatever they want. 

9:46PM - Trump wanted to quickly point out that he was always opposed to the Iraq War.  Good for him.  Then he said that single payer health care would have worked in another age in America, whatever that means, but now we need a private system.  I can't imagine Trump actually knows anything about health care, except that he hates having to give it to employees.

9:48PM - This is why Trump is doing well.  Sometimes he says things that are true.  He explained his donations to many politicians, Democrats and Republicans, including Hillary Clinton, by saying that if you give them money they do what you want, and that's a broken system.  Can't argue with him on that.

9:51PM - The question to Huckabee was "Is the government to big for anyone to shrink it?".  Huckabee started by saying no, but then talked for a minute about all the ways the federal government is too big.  I think Huckabee thinks no means yes.

9:52PM - Carson appears to be advocating for a flat tax, based on his feeling that the bible supports a flat tax.  It'll be fun to have Ben around for a while.

9:53PM - Jeb said a lot about education, but all I heard was "challenging the teacher's unions and beating them".  Yes please!  I'm very pro-union, but teachers unions are the absolute worst.

10:00PM - Kasich was asked how he would fight Hillary Clinton's argument that Republicans want to oppress women and take the country back to the past.  He said he would respond by balancing budgets.  I think he skipped a step or two.

10:01PM - Same question to Carson.  First he slipped in a doubt that Hillary will actually be the candidate (slick move), then he said he would educate people about how progressives are really causing the problems in this country.  Any political operative will tell you that if you're educating, you're losing.

10:03PM - Wallace asked Jeb how he would get us to 4% growth.  His answer mostly boiled down to cutting taxes and making a wish.  I'm officially worried about Jeb.

10:04PM - Walker keeps bragging about how he's been elected 3 times in Wisconsin.  He keeps leaving out the fact that that's because they tried to recall him twice. 

10:06PM - Wallace asked Christie if Huckabee is lying when he says he can save social security without cutting benefits or raising the retirement age.  Christie said "No, he's not lying, he's just wrong."  This is why people like Christie.  That's both honest and a little funny, and also true.  I'm glad he took that sandwich break.

10:07PM - Huckabee still says he can save social security without cutting benefits or raising the retirement age, you just have to institute his fair tax.  Huckabee makes a good point, which is that people didn't opt into social security.  The government started taking their money when they started working and they didn't get a choice, so it's not their fault the system is in trouble.  All true, but life's not fair and magic tax plans won't fix social security.  People are going to have to deal with a raised retirement age eventually.  That's just the way it is.

10:11PM - Wallace pointed out that four Trump companies have gone bankrupt, but Trump responded that he's never personally gone bankrupt.  Wallace asked him about one specific deal where his lenders lost over a billion dollars and 1,100 jobs.  Trump basically said that the lenders deserved it and everybody in Atlantic City goes bankrupt.  I have to give Wallace some credit.  He really has been trying to call Trump out on his bullshit, but Trump just keeps responding with louder bullshit and Wallace only has two hours. 

10:14PM - I know these guys genuinely believe that cutting corporate taxes will help working people.  It's just that there is zero evidence to support that hypothesis and it's really frustrating.

10:16PM - They just showed a clip of the earlier debate.  One thing I didn't notice before, Carly Fiorina's hair appeared to be dyed to match her jacket.  That's an odd choice.

10:17PM - Rand made a legitimate point about the Iran deal.  He thinks the Obama administration gave up too much too early.   You can disagree, but that's a perfectly reasonable critique and certainly better than the "I would tear up that deal on day one because freedom" answer we're getting from everyone else.

10:24PM - Question to Jeb about him being on the board of the Bloomberg foundation, which gave money to Planned Parenthood.  He says they never had a debate about the budget and he was just on the board because of Bloomberg's commitment to education.  OK then.

10:25PM - Rubio swears he's never supported a rape and incest exception to his anti-abortion stance.   Just tell me how this isn't big government.  I just want an explanation.

10:26PM - Question to Trump..."when did you actually become a Republican?".  He says he's evolved on abortion and he's pro-life now.  He said it very angrily, as he says all things all the time.

10:28PM - Can we all just agree that everyone here is anti-choice?  Do we really have to go through this every four years.  We all know the Republican nominee will be anti-choice.  Why do we have to compete every election cycle to see which guy is the most anti-choice?  Seems like a poor use of time.

10:30PM - Kasich just got applause for going to a same sex wedding.  The home crowd cheered pretty loudly for him.  John stays in the maybe column, but this probably means Fox will declare him the clear loser of the debate.

10:32PM - Rand says he's opposed to the government invading the church.  Luckily, so is the government, so we're all good there.

10:35PM - Racial issues question to Walker.  He looks terrified.  He says police need better training and we should treat everyone the same here in America.  Score one generic answer for Scott.

10:38PM - Trump just recommend buying stock in Iran.  I think he was kidding but I can't say I'm 100% sure.

10:39PM - Bret asked Cruz if Russia and China are cyber terrorists.  Bret was just baiting Ted, and boy did Ted take the bait.  Has Ted mentioned that he opposes the Iran deal?  He does.

10:40PM - Republicans keep pointing out that Iran released hostages the day Reagan was elected.  If Iran released some hostages the day Obama was elected these guys would have marched on Washington and screamed about how Iran sees Obama as an ally because he's a secret Muslim.  I'd love to see a Republican debate where nobody is allowed to mention Reagan.  It would last 7 minutes before they all ran away.

10:42PM - Scott Walker would apparently send weapons to anyone who wanted them.  Can we just have one 10 minute discussion about the history of arming everyone who claims to be on our side at any one point in history?  Just once.  Please?

10:43PM - Huckabee feels that the purpose of the military is protecting Americans and not being nice to transgender people.  I'm glad President Huckabee feels like he'd be OK as President turning away willing and able military volunteers.

10:45PM - Rand says it would be better if Israel was independent and we didn't have to keep sending them money we don't have.  That's the exact same argument Republicans make about poor people, but for some reason Republicans don't like it when you replace poor people with Israel.

10:46PM - Christie wants to make the Navy bigger again.  He's really worried about the Spanish Armada.  You never know when they'll show up.

10:50PM - A Facebook questioner asked if any of these guys have received specific instructions from god.  Please someone say yes.  Please!

10:51PM - Sadly, even Cruz didn't take the bait on the talking to god question.  Disappointing.

10:52PM - Kasich just talked for a minute about uniting the country, listening to other people and not leaving anyone behind.  I'm a hard maybe on Kasich right now.

10:54PM - Rubio says god has blessed the Republican party with some great candidates when the Democrats can't even find one.  Then he talked about reforming the VA.  Rubio may have something for the rest of these guys.  Keep an eye on him.

10:56PM - Carson says he doesn't talk about race that much because he's a neurosurgeon.  I thought that was a pretty good line.  Ben's not going to win, but he's pretty funny sometimes.

Summary of the closing statements:
Kasich - He talked about having a lot of experience.  I think John may be a pretty good candidate, but he needs to work on being less boring.
Christie - Chris' dad worked in an ice cream plant.  That explains some things.  He again mentioned that he was appointed to the Bush administration on September 10, 2001.  Seriously, I wouldn't stand next to him anywhere.
Paul - Rand made an electability argument and said he's a different kind of Republican.
Rubio - Rubio wants expand the American dream for more people.
Cruz - Ted gave one of those nonsense day one plans.  Booooo!  Ted's first day would have approximately 910 hours in it.
Carson - Carson says that everyone is bragging about the things that they were the only one to do, and then says "I'm the only one to separate Siamese twins."  Then he says he thought he was the only one to take out half a brain, but when he gets to Washington he may find that someone beat him to it.  Seriously, Ben's funny.
Huckabee -  Huckabee tried to be funny.  Huck isn't funny though.
Walker - "I'm a guy with a wife and two kids and a Harley".  Ugh. 
Bush - Jeb tried to jam his whole platform into 30 seconds.  Always a mistake.
Trump - I think he just called America a loser.

Man, that was long.

Kiddie Table

When Fox News decided to only invite 10 candidates to the main stage for the first Republican primary debate, one really interesting side effect was that it created seven leftover candidates who didn't make the debate.  I don't know if this was the plan from the start, or if they decided to do this later, but Fox decided to have a sort of JV debate a few hours before the main debate. 

It's one of the saddest things I've ever seen in politics.  They're in the same arena as they're using for tonight, but it's completely empty right now.  And they're using the exact same set, including not even removing the three podiums that are empty because this debate has three less people.  These guys are basically doing the sound check for the real debate.  Ouch.

The kiddie debate is being moderated by Bill Hemmer and Martha MacCallum.  Oy.

5:01PM - Hemmer is on fire right off the bat, referring to Bobby Jindal as the "acting" Governor of Louisiana.  The phrase Bill was looking for was "sitting Governor", or "current Governor".  Acting Governor is the guy who takes over in the interim when we find out that Bobby is actually a little kid and four raccoons in a man suit.

5:03PM - MacCallum starts off hot for real by asking Carly Fiorina if comparing herself to Margaret Thatcher was "a stretch".  You said it Martha.  Carly dodged the question and rambled about leadership for a while.  She said she knows more world leaders than any other candidate except maybe Hillary Clinton.  So does Bono, but he's not going to be President either.

5:06PM - Bobby Jindal's answer to why he's so unpopular in his own state was that he didn't run for Governor to be popular.  The more people hate me, the more they'll probably vote for me...Jindal 2016!

5:07PM - Hemmer asked Lindsey Graham how Republicans can trust him since he actually thinks climate change might be a problem.  Lindsay, giving a genuinely solid answer, says that he's a good candidate because he won't spend time arguing with Hillary Clinton about the science, he can argue with her about the solution.  His solution?  Find more fossil fuel in the United States, but use less.  Awesome plan.  There's literally no way that could go wrong.

5:10PM - Pataki just said we need to end crony capitalism.  Someone needs to revive Lindsey Graham. 

5:10PM - Jim Gilmore says that Rory and Lorelai had one of the most realistic and relatable mother/daughter relationships in the history of television.  I don't know about that, but like I've said before, dark hair and blue eyes works just fine for me.  I wish Jim would make another show about that.

5:12PM - It took the moderators 12 minutes to ask these people about Donald Trump, who isn't actually in this debate.  Rick Perry took the opportunity to talk about Texas border security.  Fiorina suggested that we ask Trump how he would govern.  Megyn Kelly shouted "no thank you" from the back of the room.

5:15PM - Jindal says we need to take the political handcuffs off the military.  Bobby Jindal's rules of engagement appear to be "kill whatever you see!".   I'd hate to be the President who has to clean up whatever mess Bobby would make.

5:16PM - Graham says we need to destroy ISIL before they come to America, and says our strategy for ISIL should be "whatever it takes, as long as it takes".  OK so put Lindsey down for indefinite war against an enemy he in no way understands.

5:21PM - MacCallum asked Pataki if he would put mosques under surveillance.  She added "keep in mind that conservatives are very concerned about religious liberty".  Right, but that's not really the kind of liberty they're talking about, is it?  Not surprisingly, George didn't answer the question.  He did mention that he was the Governor of New York on 9/11.  I had completely forgotten that, so you can tell he really made an impact.

5:24PM - Fiorina says it's disturbing that after terrorist attacks we usually find out that there were warnings and dots that weren't connected.  Gilmore Girls took that opportunity to point out that we had warnings about the 9/11 attacks before they occurred.  He's really asking for a Dick Cheney face shooting.  Bill Hemmer quickly jumped in with "shhhhh Jim, we don't talk about that here".

5:28PM - Rick Santorum says his dad was willing to wait to be an American, and immigrants today should be willing to wait because we're a nation of laws.  Can we at least admit that the world was slightly different 100 years ago, and that maybe not everything can just be the same as it was then?

5:30PM - Perry just pointed out that Reagan signed a law that amounted to amnesty.  Don't these guys get any of the Republican memos?  Also, Texas apparently has some kind of border protection plane that flies around and watches the border.  Who gave Texas planes?  That was a bad idea.

5:35PM - MacCallum asked Graham how you get Americans to take a job instead of a handout.  Oh Martha, I had such high hopes for you.  Graham, to his credit, didn't take the bait and said that Americans will work if given the opportunity, and then took the opportunity to attack Hillary for 90 seconds and point out that he'll monitor mosques if he has to, even though nobody asked him that.  So that answer was sort of a mixed bag from Lindsey.

5:37PM - MacCallum went fishing again with the same question, this time to Santorum.  Rick also mostly didn't take the bait.  Rick took the time to talk about his plan to grow manufacturing jobs by instituting a 20% flat tax.  I'm not sure a giant tax hike for poor people is the best way to help them, but I'm not a fancy economist.

5:39PM - Gilmore wants to cut everyone's taxes, but especially rich people.  They get a cut all the way down to 20% and no more estate tax.  I was just getting a little hopeful about Jim.  Can we just get Rory Gilmore next time?  She's so pretty.

5:41PM - Jindal points out that Barack Obama has weakened America by running up our huge national debt to China.  I keep forgetting that we had no debt until 2009. 

5:43PM - Hemmer keeps asking people if they would have expanded Obamacare in their state like John Kasich did.  Pataki talked about how he created workfare in New York but let people keep their health care, but then still said he would repeal Obamacare.  George has complicated feelings about poor people and health care.

5:48PM - MacCallum asked Perry why it's OK for us to be allies with Saudi Arabia, which funnels money to anti-American groups, but it's not OK for Iran to have money to funnel to anti-American groups.  Rick very angrily responded that it's not OK for Iran to get a nuclear weapon, so there.  Rick then said Carly Fiorina would have gotten a better deal with Iran than John Kerry did.   Carly's main argument on foreign policy appears to be that she knows everyone in the world.

5:52PM - Oh Rick.  You know, I want to believe Rick Santorum can conduct himself like a serious grown up.  But then he stands up on TV and, with a straight face, says that the Supreme Court's recent same sex marriage decision was just like the Dred Scott decision.  Those two court decisions are literal opposites.  I regret everything I said last week about Rick possibly being a serious candidate.  Apparently, he really can't help himself.

5:54PM - Hemmer asked Gilmore if he would impose an abortion litmus test on Supreme Court judges.  His answer involved creating a middle east NATO.  I think Bill and Martha are losing control a little bit.

5:58PM - Pataki points out that you don't have to be pro-abortion to be pro-choice, but somehow he would still defund Planned Parenthood even though no federal money goes to funding abortions at Planned Parenthood.  Republicans feel the same way about Planned Parenthood as I feel about Hillary Clinton.  They don't like it and you can't penetrate their feelings with logic.

6:01PM - Bobby Jindal says he would use the whole federal government to attack Planned Parenthood if he became President.  Bobby's first day would be pretty eventful.  He later said he'd also sign an executive order making sure Christians don't face discrimination. 

6:02PM - Graham says we should take the money from Planned Parenthood and put it toward women's health care without having to harvest organs from little babies.  Is that how it works?  Do you have to harvest some organs before you get any health care at Planned Parenthood.  Shit.  That sounds terrible. 

6:02PM - Graham also pointed out that if you want to see a real war on women you should go to the middle east.  Way to raise the bar Lindsey.  We treat women better than ISIS does.  Hooray!

6:04PM - Graham says he'd restore the NSA to what it was on his first day in office.  It took five guys to stop Rand Paul from running onto the stage.

6:06PM - Santorum would also sign some kind of first amendment protection order to stop everyone from discriminating against Christians.  This is such a weird persecution complex.  America is awesome for Christians.  I should know, I went to Catholic school.  I was never discriminated against for being a Christian, not once, not in my whole life.  Never.  That literally never happened to me.

6:07PM - MacCallum mentioned Reagan and all the candidates swooned.  MacCallum challenged every candidate to say something inspiring like Reagan would.  Santorum referred to himself as a child of Ronald Reagan.  I think we just broke some news.

6:10PM - Graham has said "whatever it takes" about the war on terror at least 5 times.  Lindsey made a really impassioned argument in favor of social security.  It was genuinely touching and completely unexpected.  Politics is weird sometimes.

6:12PM - Hemmer asked all seven people to describe Hillary Clinton in two words.  Not one of them was able to stick to two words.  That pretty much sums it up.

6:12PM - Santorum and Perry are wearing the exact same outfit. 

6:14PM - Perry says we need a "corporate executive type" as President.  There are multiple corporate executive types in the Republican field, but Rick isn't one of them.  Classic Perry.

6:17PM - Fiorina reminds us that she is not a member of the political class.  I have no idea what I'm doing...Fiorina 2016!

6:17PM - Everything Graham says sounds like he's on the verge of tears.  Is that how people talk in South Carolina?  That would be a really confusing and alarming place to live.

Speaking of alarming and confusing, the first part of tonight's Republican festivities is over.  I said last week I'm going to have to vote for one of these 17 Republicans.  Well, you cross these seven off the list.  Luckily, Fox pretty much already has.  See you later tonight.

I'm Not Voting for Hillary Clinton

You can't make me vote for Hillary Clinton.  I won't do it.  The list of people I would not vote for under any circumstances has on it but one name, and that name is Hillary Clinton.  I don't even care what she says she believes in this time.  I just want her to go away.  Her and Bill are rich, and they've accomplished plenty, why won't they just go away?  Why?

Unfortunately, having only two parties to choose from, this means the Republican primary process takes on extra special significance for me this time around.  No longer are the Republicans just funny TV personalities I can laugh at and then not vote for.  I have to vote for one of these people.  So everybody focus up!  Alright?!?  I'm serious!  Time to take a look at the Republican candidates.  I was worried that the internet wouldn't have enough room on it to list all of them, but internet inventor Al Gore says we're fine.

I've broken the candidates down into three tiers.  Within each tier, I'll try to list the candidates in order from least likely to win to most likely to win.  Seriously now, I have to vote for one of these people, so let's all just pay attention and see if we can find some hope here.

Tier Three
Tier three consists of people who have the same chance at winning the Republican nomination as I do.  I couldn't tell you why they're running, and I couldn't tell you why anyone would bother donating money to them or saying their name when a pollster calls and asks who they might be voting for.  I'll still try to list these people from least likely to most likely, but keep in mind that trying to parse out the varying degrees of absolutely no chance really is splitting hairs.  Pointless, needless hairs.

Jim Gilmore
I don't know who this person is.  I assume he created Gilmore Girls and listen, girls with blue eyes and dark hair is an excellent concept for a TV show.  I wish every show was based around that general theme.  But Gilmore Guy here isn't going to be President.  Sorry.

Carly Fiorina
Being an actual person I've heard of is a good start.  Carly was CEO of Hewlett-Packard for a while, and was apparently terrible at it.  To be fair, taking over a tech company in 1999 was a little like taking over as Brittney Spears' manager in 1999.  You knew it wasn't going to end well, but somebody had to do it. 

Being a former CEO whose claim to fame was lay-offs certainly didn't stop Mitt Romney from winning the Republican nomination.  Mitt, however, was at least a governor at some point.  Carly once ran for the Senate and lost.  I don't think that's going to cut it.  Also, Carly is awful on TV.  Really awful.  If you ever get a chance to see her do an interview on Fox, watch for as long as you can just to see what I'm talking about.  You won't last long.

Lindsey Graham 
I can't figure out what Lindsey Graham is doing.  He always struck me as a guy who was perfectly happy being a career Senator.  I suppose if he and John McCain are ever going to build a blanket fort in the White House, it's up to Lindsey now.  Unfortunately, "John McCain is my best friend" isn't exactly a killer campaign slogan when you're dealing with the Republican base.  They still think McCain ruined Sarah Palin's epic run for the White House.

Bobby Jindal
Take your pick of reasons why Bobby won't win.  How about doing everything but setting his own shirt on fire during a comically awful State of the Union response?  Or how about the fact that he looks and sounds like a little kid pretending to be his dad every time you see him speaking?  Or how about the fact the apparently everyone in Louisiana hates him?  Or how about the fact that nobody will take you seriously if you're a 44 year old man who still calls himself Bobby? 

George Pataki
You probably think I have Pataki ranked a little high, right near the top of the people who have absolutely no chance.  Maybe it's my New York bias, but I don't understand why George isn't doing a little better.  Then again, I haven't actually seen him do anything since I found out he was running for President.  George knows that in order to run for President you have to like, leave your house and stuff, right?

Tier Two
Tier two consists of people who, under the right circumstances, could hypothetically win the nomination.  For a couple of them, those circumstances would mostly involve leading a military coup, or having a deadly virus kill all the other candidates.  Still, I think each of these people has some plausible, if improbable, path to the nomination.

Ben Carson
I know, you think Ben should be higher.  I disagree.  Carson is one of two candidates who are specifically hurt by Donald Trump.  The tea party failed because it became a magnet for everyone in the Republican party who wanted to get angry about everything without actually having to learn about anything.  Carson looked like he might be their guy in 2016, but then Trump came along and boy, talk about being angry without actually learning anything!  The Trump train will wreck eventually, but by the time it does Carson will be lucky to still get his show on Fox, which is really all he wanted in the first place.

Ted Cruz
The other guy Trump is absolutely burying is Ted Cruz, for basically the same reason.  Ever since he got to the Senate Ted Cruz has been the champion of being loud and disagreeable.  Now he takes a firm back seat in that category to Mr. Trump.  Second place in the loud and disagreeable competition is just the first loser.  If Trump disappears more quickly than I expect, his voters will have to go somewhere and Ted still has a platform as a Senator.  Unfortunately for Ted (and fortunately for the rest of us, in this context at least), I don't think Trump is leaving anytime soon and until he does, Ted stays buried.

Rick Perry
Presidents from Texas have a tendency to get us into intractable quagmires overseas.  And with so many potential quagmires available to us currently, I'm confident that Republican voters will recognize that Mr. Perry is not the guy right now.  Also, he's terrible at debating and might actually be a moron.  I'm not a big fan, is I guess what I'm saying. 

Mike Huckabee
I'm a little disappointed in Huck.  Growing up, the priests always told us to love the sinner and hate the sin.  Some of them were better at that than others.  I always thought Mike was pretty good at genuinely not hating the people he believes to be sinners.  Now I'm not so sure. 

Mike's path to the nomination has always been the same.  Rally the social conservatives and stick around long enough to go one on one with the establishment candidate, with enough primaries left to make it a real fight.  This time around, I wonder how much fight the social conservatives have left in them.  They keep losing, in public opinion, in the courts, with former Olympic athletes who they thought were cool.  At some point, some percentage of those folks have to give up and move on to other things.  I don't think there's enough left to take Huck anywhere good, but I guess we'll see.

Donald Trump
I know, I know.  But he's doing so well in the polls! How can you not even have him in the first tier??  Let me ask you an honest question.  Do you really think Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination?  I don't.  I think he'll stay in for a while, probably at least into March.  But as other candidates start to drop out, two things will happen. 

First of all, nobody who is supporting any other candidate, except for maybe Cruz and Carson, will come over to Trump when their guy leaves.  Every time someone gets out of the race, everyone else will get some new voters and Trump will stay where he is now.  Secondly, while Trump will probably look pretty good in Thursday's debate with nine other people, eventually he'll wind up on stage with just two or three other people and that's when his real weakness will get exposed.  He's a lightweight.  He doesn't know anything about governing or public policy.  That's fine when you're one of 17 people shouting at the TV cameras, it's less fine when you're on stage trying to debate 2 or 3 people who have spent their lives working in government. 

Trump can't win for the same reason I can't be a famous guitarist.  I think I'd be an awesome famous guitarist!  I'd be so charitable if I was rich and I'd always sign autographs for fans.  I'd always be on tour and I'd play colleges and charity events for free because I'd be rich anyway and you can only spend so much money.  I'd be great at this!  Oh but there's this one thing, I'm terrible at playing the guitar.  Just that one thing, otherwise I'd be great.

Rick Santorum
And now you're wondering how it took me so long to get to Rick.  I've been hard on Rick in the past, and I don't agree with him a lot, but I honestly think he's a solid candidate.  Listen to Rick speak if you ever get the chance.  He talks a lot about the economy, the middle class and jobs.  He hardly ever talks about bestiality anymore.  I don't think Rick's economic plan is any good, but at least he has one, and I think he honestly wants to do good things for working people.  He's pretty genuine on the economic stuff, and I think that'll resonate if he gets a chance.

Rick was also a Senator, and from a state with actual people in it.  He understands how governing works and he has experience in primary debates.  I feel like Rick should be doing better than he is, and I have some expectation that he'll start doing better soon.  I'm not saying I like it, I'm just saying I think Santorum may be more for real than he seems right now, and I'd suggest keeping an eye on him.

Rand Paul
I have to admit to being genuinely interested in Rand at some point.  I've always been a fan of Ron Paul, and I was looking forward to seeing Rand keep up the family tradition of getting booed in Republican primary debates for being somewhat tentative about bombing everything.  Rand is still probably the guy in this field I'd be most likely to vote for, but doesn't it feel like his moment has passed a little bit? 

He really jumped on that whole NSA data collection thing, but it turned out most people didn't really care about that a lot.  And even though Rand is actually more hawkish than his dad, I think most Republicans think he's still someone who wouldn't feature explosions in his foreign policy, and I'm not sure that fits into the current Iran pants-shitting vibe the Republicans currently have going. 

Marco Rubio
All of Marco's avenues seem to be closing.  He lost the tea party people when he decided to support immigration reform and, you know, be Hispanic.  The whole anti-Castro thing doesn't really play outside of Florida.  The most generous description of his State of the Union response would be "not totally awful", which is better than Bobby Jindal's "catastrophic", but still not good. 

Rubio's best path to the nomination is the same as Barack Obama's path in 2008.  It's a pretty good path, but I wonder if this avenue is closing for Marco too.  He's no less new to the national scene than Obama was around this time in 2007, but Republicans got really excited about him and pushed him like Vince McMahon pushing a new wrestler, and now Marco already seems like he's been around for a while.  I think we may already know too much about Rubio for him to play the new guy.  Also, I'm not convinced that anyone from Congress can win this time around.  People really hate Congress.

I seem mostly down on Marco because, like Rand Paul, I think his moment may have passed.  On the other hand, Jimmy Smits won the election on the West Wing, and if anyone is a Republican Matt Santos, it's this guy.

John Kasich
Kasich is the hardest guy on the list to place, because he just got in.  He's a governor, so he's not tainted by being a member of Congress.  He's a swing state governor, and he seems to be a least mildly popular in his state.  He has legitimate experience governing.  Republicans have seemed quietly excited about Kasich for a while now. 

Kasich sort of quietly announced his candidacy right in the middle of Trumpageddon.  Sometimes a bad launch can kill a campaign.  I don't know if that'll happen to Kasich, he seems pretty legit, but it's really hard to say right now.  It looks like he'll probably make Thursday's debate, and I expect he'll do pretty well, and then he should be on his way to the top tier.

Tier One
Tier one candidates are the people who are currently legitimate contenders.  People who I think can win without anything weird happening.  One of these guys would make a really awful President, but the other two would probably be not completely terrifying.

Chris Christie
Maybe I need to give up on Chris.  Maybe this just isn't going to happen.  I'm not ready yet though.  He's the only guy in this field who won't put up with getting bullied by Trump.  His experience as a U.S. Attorney should kill in debates about security.  He's well known and currently a Governor.  The fact that MSNBC still won't stop crying about the George Washington Bridge also leads me to believe that liberals are genuinely afraid of Christie. 

Will social conservatives ever really trust him?  No, but they didn't trust Romney or McCain either and they eventually dealt with it.  Does he need to get his poll numbers up?  Yes he does.  He may not even make the stage on Thursday.  It seems like he's got enough financial backing to hang around for a while, and he should do better once some of the other people start dropping out.  I think he'll get the Rubio people, maybe the Perry people, maybe even the Huckabee people if they don't go to Santorum.  I still think he can win, soon I may be the only one left.

Scott Walker
Walker seems to remind Republicans of Reagan, which is a terrible thing for anyone who actually understands what kind of President Reagan was in real life, but an awesome thing for Scott in the Republican primary.  He's also become the patron saint of union bashing, another killer trait for a Republican.  If I thought Scott Walker was actually a decent candidate, he'd be the clear favorite.  He doesn't really seem like a decent candidate though.  He seems like an empty suit that's been filled with talking points and billionaires' political wishes.  Like I said, he's a lot like Reagan.

Jeb Bush
I think Jeb is still the favorite.  I know his poll numbers never move and he doesn't really seem to do or say much, but consider a few other things.  He's incredibly well-funded, he was a swing state Governor and Republican primary voters don't remember his brother nearly as negatively as the rest of us.  Would it help you to know that his real name is John?  Sounds less silly than Jeb, right?

We have to find out if Jeb actually wants to be President that much.  I'm not 100% sure he does.  I don't know that anyone is especially excited about Jeb, and maybe that's because he doesn't seem too excited about himself.  I'm not looking forward to voting for Jeb, but I think it's the most likely outcome for me.  I mean, how bad can a Bush Presidency be, right?

Epilogue
Oh and one more thing.  Did you notice how I didn't mention Newt Gingrich?  That's because he's not running this time.  If you're looking at all of these people and thinking you don't like any of them, just remember that none of them are Newt Gingrich, and that's pretty great.