My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL Central

Before I start, let me just say this. Congratulations Knicks fans! For only 60% of your starting line-up and half your team, you were able to go from being the 6th best team in the east to being the 5th best team in the east. Quite a day in the big city. Let's get to the baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Opening Thought: "Hello, Baxter? Baxter, is that you? Bark twice if you're in Milwaukee."

I read a story a while back about the food at Miller Park. The writer talked about eating for the cycle, which included four different kinds of sausage. The sausage race at Miller Park also includes four kinds of sausage (including, I'm told, chorizo. Yum). I don't really have a joke or a point, I just think more things in life should include four kinds of sausage.

Off-season: Who knew Milwaukee would be the eventual winners of the Zack Greinke sweepstakes? Add the Shaun Marcum trade and the Brewers spent the off-season improving their starting pitching, which is good because Milwaukee's team ERA was only better than Arizona and Pittsburgh in the NL last year. Sure, nobody wants to be the team stuck with Yuniesky Betancourt, but that's just the way it goes sometimes.

Questions: Can the move to the NL help Zack Greinke bounce back? Can Rickie Weeks do that again and stay healthy?

Answers: Hell yes and probably not. Pencil Greinke in for an ERA in the low 3's and 17-20 wins. Not only is he still really good, but you can't underestimate the psychology of getting out of Kansas City. As for Weeks, last season was the first time he played in more than 130 games and it was the first time he hit over .235 while playing more than 100 games. I need to see both of those things happen again before I'm sold.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Fielder and Braun are sure things. Casey McGehee and Corey Hart round out a really strong middle of the order. I know people worry about Hart's strike-outs, but he went .283/31/102 last year with 140 strike-outs. It's not like he can go much higher, right? Right?

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen, but I actually don't hate it too much. John Axford is a perfectly adequate option at closer and Manny Parra's move to the bullpen gives them a solid lefty out there. I think they'll need another right-hander (I would count on getting anything useful from LaTroy Hawkins or Takashi Saito), but I've certainly seen worse bullpens.

Closing Thought: Quick disclaimer, all predictions regarding the Brewers assume that the entire state of Wisconsin won't be on strike/laid off/on fire/abandoned by September.

Prediction: First place, really interesting playoff team with Greinke and Gallardo at the top of the rotation and some chips in their system to trade if they're in contention.

Cincinnati Reds
Opening Thought: "We said we weren't gonna talk about Cincinnati ever, OK? - Is that why you have that shoebox in your closet that says 'Cincinnati'?"

I wrote a whole thing about my trip to the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Great park, nice people, awful team. Since then, the Reds have become decidely less awful, and may be growing into the team that the fans and the stadium deserve.

Off-season: If all the Reds did this off-season was get rid of Aaron Harang, that's not such a bad use of their time. And, as far as I can tell, that is basically is all they did. I know they picked up Edgar Renteria, but he's not even slated to be starting and he apparently doesn't become useful until you get to the World Series.

Questions: Can Edinson Volquez get all the way back to his 2008 form? Are Homer Bailey and Travis Wood ready? Is it finally Jay Bruce's year?

Answers: I think so, I honestly don't know and I think so. Jay Bruce turns 24 on April 3rd, so even though he's been up since 2008, he's just now nearing his prime. If Joey Votto can keep up last year's MVP production and Bruce can add a break-out year of his own...watch out. As for the pitchers, I really like Volquez, we'll just have to see how healthy he is. I'm not sure about Homer Bailey, but Travis Wood strikes me as the kind of guy who settles in quickly and puts together a run of perfectly average 15-win seasons.

My Favorite Thing: I like the balance with the Reds. They certainly have the weapons to score runs, the starting pitching is solid and the bullpen might be my favorite part. Francisco Cordero is another perfectly adequate closer and he'll be set-up Aroldis Chapman and Jose Arredondo. Chapman looks as good as advertised and I've always liked Arredondo.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: It's hard to pick something here. This isn't a perfect team, but they're balanced and they've got good organizational depth so they can keep building. The Reds were even tied for the league lead in fielding percentage last year. I guess the bullpen has some question marks, but I really like the upside there.

Closing Thought: Repeating as a division champ isn't easy. As much as I like the Reds, you have to be really good to go back-to-back and I'm not sure they're that good.

Prediction: Second place and a wild card birth. The NL wild card is going to have to deal with the Phillies, so that's probably where the Cincinnati train stops.

St. Louis Cardinals
Opening Thought: "At the current time I am looking at a number of different fields from which to disseminate which offer is most pursuant to my benefit. What do you want? What do I want? What does anybody want? Leniency. These circumstances are mitigated. Right now. They're mitigated. He knows what I'm talking about. A retainer. Nobody in this town works without a retainer. You think you can find someone who does, you have my blessing. But I think we all know that person isn't going to represent you as well as I can...Re-TAIN-er. Retainer."

Off-season: $8 million to Lance Berkman, 2 years at just over $8 million to Jake Westbrook. I could probably find about 8 million Yankee fans who will tell you that Lance Berkman is 8 million percent finished. Meanwhile, they can't scrape together the money to resign Albert Pujols. St. Louis gets no credit for any moves they make until Pujols is signed or traded.

Questions: Just one, because it's the only one that matters. What happens without Adam Wainwright?

Answers: Bad things, very bad things. I've always thought the fortunes of this team were tied to Chris Carpenter and how healthy he can be, but that was because Wainwright was good for 18-20 wins and a sub 3 ERA and you didn't really have to think about it. Now they have to ask Carpenter to carry this pitching staff on his very fragile shoulders. I like Jamie Garcia just fine, but it could still be a long season in St. Louis, especially with the game's best hitter peaking toward the exit.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. This team still has Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and an underrated Skip Schumaker. Jon Jay, who hit .300 in 287 at-bats last year should replace Berkman in right field by opening day. The Cardinals can hit.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. Can you win a division if Jake Westbrook is your number 2 or 3 starter? No, no you can't. Plus, Ryan Franklin is 37 and didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 3.46 ERA last year.

Closing Thought: "Allegedly, I'm saying your situation would be concurrently improved if I had two-hundred bucks in my pocket right now."

Prediction: Third place, and that's only because I know Dave Duncan can make any pitching staff respectable.

Chicago Cubs
Opening Thought: "fool me once, shame on...shame on you...fool me-you can't get fooled again."

The Cubs have been fooling their fans since the Taft administration. All I wanted to do was go out on a limb and pick the Cubs to finally win one. Then, I looked at their roster and, well, here we are.

Off-season: The Cubs replaced Derek Lee at first base with Carlos Pena. Pena is a .241 career hitter who hit .196 last year. That's right, .196. Not against lefties, against everyone. At least he's also old and way past his prime. Also, Chicago may be attempting to return to the glory days of the last time they almost won a championship but then didn't, signing Kerry Wood as a set-up man. I'm setting the over/under on Wood's first DL stint at May 12th.

Questions: Do the Cubs have an ace? Do the Cubs have a number 3 hitter? Is Alfonso Soriano finished?

Answers: No, no and yes, but that happened years ago, why are you just asking now?

My Favorite Thing: Starlin Castro. Castro hit .300 last year as a 20-year old rookie. Things like power and learning how to steal a base will come with experience and the Cubs can build around Castro for the next 12 years.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: So much to choose from, but I'll go with starting pitching. At least the bullpen has Carlos Marmol, who struck-out 138 batters in 77.2 innings last year. That's not a typo. Marmol recorded 233 outs last year, 138 by strike-out. That's crazy.

Closing Thought: The Cubs make me sad. Not only have they gone without a title since 1908, but they aren't even close to one now. This team is old, lacking in talent and just not that good. Help appears to be on the way from the farm system (Trey McNutt, Brett Jackson), but we've heard that before in Chicago and just this off-season they dealt Chris Archer to Tampa.

Prediction: Fourth place. The season is already over for St. Louis' ace, and it's not even March yet. And still, the Cubs won't be better than their rivals.

Houston Astros
Opening Thought: "I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality I could be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves." (maybe I need to explain some of these...Astros...this is from the episode when Homer was an astronaut...some of these are just for me)

Off-season: Houston is another team that seems to have napped through the winter. It seems like they've got a bunch of young guys and they've decided to run them out there this season. I like the attitude, I don't know if they'll like the results.

Questions: What now with Carlos Lee? How good is JA Happ?

Answers: Best case scenario, he starts off hot and the Astros can pawn him off on some unsuspecting contender (as a Yankee fan, I'm shaking my head somberly). As for Happ, very good, I think.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris (who wasn't that good last year but should get better). Teams that are hard to score against are always worth keeping an eye on, and Houston might be hard to score against.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Offense. Specifically, I'm not sure what to make of it. The numbers from Hunter Pence are almost identical for each of the last three years. .280ish, 25HR, 80-90 RBI. Pence turns 28 in April and I'm pretty sure that's what he is. So, who carries this offense? The aging Carlos Lee? Chris Johnson? I'm not sure anybody will.

Closing Thought: This division has too many teams. You can really get bogged down in the middle.

Prediction: Fifth place, but I think the Astros are the wild card in this division. I know what the Cubs are and I know what the Cardinals are without Adam Wainwright, but I'm not really sure about the Astros. Could they finish second, or even contend for the top? Sure. Could they finish last? Well, maybe not in this division.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Opening Thought: "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things that I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul."

The Pirates haven't been even remotely close to possibly contending since Barry Bonds left. Even the Royals have been decent a couple of times in the last 20 years. Even the Nationals have been OK once or twice. The Pirates are just an abomination.

Off-season: The Pirates spent $5 million on Lyle Overbay. I don't even know what to say about that. Do they believe he's the missing piece that'll vault them to 68 wins? They'd be better off just giving five dollars to every fan who shows up in Pittsburgh this year.

Questions: Which Pirate gets to finish the season with the Yankees?

Answers: My money's on Joel Hanrahan.

My Favorite Thing: The Pirates should be fun to watch. Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen. If they actually keep everyone and develop some pitching, Pittsburgh is about three years away from contending. Of course, we've been here before.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: One look at Pittsburgh's pitching staff caused me to immediately look up the single season record for runs allowed by a team (answer: the 1899 Cleveland Spiders who allowed 1252 runs in 154 games).

Closing Thought: When do the Steelers report to training camp?

Prediction: Last place. Another long season in Pittsburgh.