My Big Fat Baseball Preview - AL Central

Continuing with the AL Central...

Chicago White Sox (AKA The Chicago Red Army)
President Obama is a White Sox fan. So, obviously, they're communists. And if you're rooting for this team, you're a communist too. I want to assure everyone that I'm not rooting for the Red Army, I'm just picking them to finish in first. It's not my fault communists are such good pitchers.

Off-season: The interesting thing about this team's off-season is that their two biggest moves for this year didn't happen in the winter, they happened last summer at the deadline. There are two kinds of baseball fans, people who believe in Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, and people who win fantasy leagues. Me? I believe. I think Juan Pierre was a nice addition too. He spent a lot of time sitting around and watching baseball in LA, so I think he's got a year or two of good baseball left in him.

Line-up: I'm not sure what the Sox were thinking when they signed Andruw Jones to be their DH. Andruw's batting averages for the last three years are .222, .158 and .214. That's not a recipe for success, even if the power did come back a little last year. Luckily, I like the rest of this line-up. I see a big year coming for Gordon Beckham. Don't surprised if Alex Rios bounces back too. I know he only hit .199 in 41 games with Chicago last year, but before that he had three straight seasons of hitting at least .290 and he averaged 82 RBI over those same three years in a bad Toronto line-up. Mark Teahan's a solid addition too, he's 28 and this is the best team he's ever been on, he could have a career year. Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin should have better years too, if Quentin can stay healthy. I like this team to score plenty of runs.

Pitching: Like I said, I believe in Jake Peavy. I like John Danks and Gavin Floyd too. Mark Buehrle is a little overrated for me if you're calling him a #1, but I can live with him as a #2 behind Peavy. Bobby Jenks isn't a top-notch closer, but he's workable. Most of his peripherals stayed about the same last year, and his strike-outs actually went up. It was the home run jump from 3 to 9 that really hurt him. That could be a bad sign, but it could also be a fluke. And don't forget about J.J. Putz. He was a dominant closer in '06 and '07, if he can get the Met stink off of himself, he can be a solid 8th inning guy.

Final Thought: This team may be a bat short. I like Chicago's line-up, but they have a lot of "what ifs". Like, what if Carlos Quentin gets hurt again? What if Alex Rios can't get it back? What if Juan Pierre is suddenly done or can't handle playing everyday? The good news? Chicago has some trade-worthy talent in their system and Ken Williams isn't afraid to deal it away.

Prediction: First place, probably a first round playoff loss to whatever AL east team wins the wild card. They'll need someone other than Peavy to step up and be lights out in October to have a chance, and I don't think that happens.

Detroit Tigers
A few years ago, I compared Detroit to the sad little British towns that every Dickens novel seems to take place in. My buddy Dave, who I had been there with, responded by saying "yeah, it was the worst of times, it was the worst of times". I don't know if things have gotten any better there since then (I'm guessing probably not, since I was there in April 2007 and the economy has since, ya know, imploded). I bring this up because I usually root for Detroit teams if they're contending for a title and the team I'm a fan of is out of it. I don't think they'll win the division, but I'd like them to. (especially since they'd be beating Obama's communist baseball army)

Off-season: Christmas came late for Detroit, they didn't pick up Johnny Damon until late February. Sounds like a pretty crappy Christmas too, right? Well, maybe not. I wouldn't expect Johnny to do a whole lot of running, or catching, or throwing. But everything I've seen tells me he can still hit. His 24 home runs last year tied a career high and his 82 RBI were the most for him since 2004. Those numbers will come down a bit leaving Yankee Stadium and that great line-up, but I'm still fairly convinced a healthy Damon can give you .270, 17HR, 75RBI.

Line-up: Having said that about Damon, he won't replace the guy they lost in their biggest off-season move, and I have a lot of concerns about this line-up. I'm not sold on Austin Jackson being ready, and between him and Scott Sizemore, it's hard not to see at least one of them being back in the minors by June. Magglio Ordonez's home run total has gone from 28 to 21 to 9 over the last three seasons, so while he can still hit (.310 last year), from where are they planning to get power? Outside of Miguel Cabrera (3 straight 30+ HR seasons and 6 straight with 100+ RBI), I don't see any scary bats. The Tigers will have their big days when everyone gets two hits, but they'll also have some bad days with plenty of runners left on base.

Pitching: Justin Verlander's last three seasons look like this:
18-6, 3.66 ERA, 183 K's, 67 BB's
11-17, 4.84 ERA, 163 K's, 87 BB's
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 269 K's, 63 BB's
Which one of these things is not like the other? Was 2008 a fluke? Can Verlander have two good years in a row again like he did in '06 and '07? I'm not sure what to expect, but it looks like he's moving in the right direction. The rest of this rotation doesn't impress me, I'm expecting a little bit of a step back from Rick Porcello. And once again, the Tigers have been duped by a closer with lots of saves but so-so peripheral numbers. I don't expect them to be too happy with Jose Valverde. A healthy Joel Zumaya can still be a good 8th inning guy or closer, but finding a healthy Zumaya is like finding a healthy leprechaun.

Final Thought: One of the things I really like about the Tigers is the amount of legit young talent they have. I expect this team to keep getting better over the next few years. So while I don't have them in the playoffs this year, I think we'll see them there soon.

Prediction: Second place and no post-season. They could easily hop over Chicago if their rotation exceeds expectations, but I don't think it will.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins get huge bonus points from me for moving their baseball outdoors where baseball belongs. I think I saw a game at the Metrodome once. My uncle lived in Minnesota for a while, I'm pretty sure we went to a game one of the times we visited him. I was probably about nine years old. Even then, I knew the Metrodome was an abomination. I expect the baseball gods to give the Twins at least five extra wins this year.

Off-season: The Twins aren't usually the most active team in the winter, unless they're unloading players, but Minnesota was actually pretty feisty this year. Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome and J.J. Hardy are all interesting pick-ups for a team that already has the middle of the order all set. I would have preferred a right-handed bat over Thome, maybe Jermaine Dye. Of course, the most important off-season event for the Twins just happened. Joe Mauer just signed an eight year/$184 million contract. As a Yankee fan, all I can say is, oh well.

Line-up: Lots to like here. Mauer and Morneau(196 combined RBI last year in spite of missing 51 combined games) anchor a line-up that's solid all the way around. It's easy to build a good line-up when you've got the 3-4 part squared away. They've got five people for three outfield positions and a DH spot, so the question is, who sits? Looks like it'll be Thome to start, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wound up being Delmon Young most days, his career has been a constant disappointment. Either way, with a good middle and more options than line-up spots, I expect this team to score.

Pitching: I don't like the Twins' pitching. Joe Nathan leaves a giant hole in the bullpen and I'm not counting on Jon Rauch to fill it (Rauch's ERA's for the last three seasons; 3.61, 4.14 and 3.60. That's not a dominant closer, that's barely passable). They say Liriano looks great, but if you don't win championships in April, you certainly don't win them in winter ball, so I'll believe it when I see it against real competition. Plus, anytime you're counting on Carl Pavano to do anything useful, you're just asking for disaster.

Final Thought: If I could have one wish from one baseball team this year, I think I'd ask the Twins for a Michelle Bachmann bobble head day. I don't really think I have to explain the fun symbolism of a little Bachmann doll with a giant empty head.

Prediction: Third place. The Twins always seem to overachieve, so don't be shocked if they find a way to win the division, I just don't know if they have the pitching.

Kansas City Royals
I definitely want to see a game in Kansas City one day. The Royals see anything you can put in your ballpark, and they raise you Kansas City BBQ and cool water fountains. Sadly, it's been about two decades since the Royals put a good team in their ballpark. Oh well, can't have it all I guess.

Off-season: The Royals added Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Jason Kendall and Josh Fields. Hmmm, umm, it's not that I don't like those four guys, I actually like all of them except for Kendall. But, I'm not sure that's all you needed to fix a last place team. They also get Alex Gordon back, and I do think that makes a difference. This team should be marginally better than last year, but that isn't really saying much.

Line-up: I expect big years from Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Jose Guillen is still a nice player when he's not doing something crazy, which actually seems to be happening less lately. I like Podsednik and Dejesus too. This is a team with a lot of nice hitters, but unless Butler or Gordon go all Barry Bonds on us, the line-up as a whole just doesn't have enough.

Pitching: I really like the Royals' pitching, especially the starters. Zack Greinke is a stud. I like one of either Luke Hochevar or Kyle Davies to have a surprisingly good year and Gil Meche is serviceable (well, he was serviceable, last year's 5.09 ERA was more terrible than serviceable, but I expect him to bounce back). Joakim Soria is one of the league's best closers (you never know when the Royals will finally trade him, but he's still there for now). Kansas City's pitching should keep them in a lot of games, good teams will have to earn the wins against them.

Final Thought: The Royals are always one of those interesting trade deadline teams. Will Joakim Soria go somewhere? Could Jose Guillen or Rick Ankiel help a contender? Unfortunately, this is probably the most exciting part of the season for Royals fans.

Prediction: Fourth place. I think Kansas City's pitching makes them better than Cleveland, but that's about it.

Cleveland Indians
It's entirely possible the Indians won't even get to finish this season. If Lebron signs with another team this summer, sports fans in Cleveland might just set the city on fire and abandon it. Would you blame them? Me neither.

Off-season: As far as I can tell, the Indians slept through most of the winter, then woke up late and signed Russell Branyan. I know it's not a big market, but this was an awful team last year with a few gaping holes. This winter would have been a good time to do something, ya know?

Line-up: I'm starting to think Grady Sizemore reminds me a lot of Carlos Beltran, the kind of guy who's good at everything but isn't great at anything. You love having guys like that on your team, but it doesn't work out so well when that guy is your best player. The rest of this line-up has too many young guys who may or may not be ready to give them anything. Lots of upside here, especially if Michael Brantley gets into the everyday line-up, but you probably won't see most of that upside for a year or two.

Pitching: Speaking of upside, I don't see a lot of it with Cleveland's pitching. There's not one guy on this entire staff that I'd say I like. Kerry Wood's already hurt and every Indians fan died a little last year when Sabathia and Lee faced off in the world series. Lots of souvenirs in Cleveland this year.

Final Thought: Major League is still the best baseball movie ever, and you Bull Durham people can't tell me any different.

Prediction: Last place, this could get ugly. This team would need big seasons from a number of unproven young guys to get anywhere near the post-season. And even then, they still don't have any pitching.