My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL Central

This is the week every year when college basketball goes from being almost as good as college football to being a billion times better. How can anyone watch championship week and the NCAA tournament and still not want a playoff for football? Do you have to fail an IQ test to be a college president? Let's get to the baseball before I punch something.

St. Louis Cardinals
I really like the Cardinal organization. Classy, great baseball city, excellent history. If the Yankees suddenly disappeared, I'd be a Cardinals fan, I wouldn't even have to think about it. When I heard the Cardinals were hiring Mark McGwire to be their new hitting coach, I was pretty shocked. And not, "oh wow, that restaurant was better than I thought it would be" shocked, but more like, "how did that monkey get in my car?" shocked. I thought we were all pretty happy pretending Mark McGwire never existed. I actually thought Mark was pretty happy with that situation too. But after thinking about it for a bit, I've decided this was another classy move from the Cardinals. Here's a guy who did a lot for the Cardinal organization, and then we all found out about the steroids and everyone wants to close their eyes and pretend he's invisible, but not the Cardinals. They're willing to take the heat and give him a chance, I don't have a problem with it. Good for them.

Off-season: Quiet winter for the Cards. They have money, but not a ton, and the money they had needed to go to Matt Holliday. Holliday seems to be a good fit in St. Louis and I think he needs to be somewhere where he can be second banana, so I think St. Louis is a good fit for him too. I like Felipe Lopez for them, because I don't love most of their infield, and Brad Penny was a good bargain signing for them. I would have liked to have seen them add another pitcher, but they can probably live without it.

Line-up: Having the best hitter in the game is a pretty good start, right? You'd have a pretty hard time building a bad line-up around Albert Pujols. And St. Louis has actually built a pretty good line-up around him. If he manages to keep his second base job, I like Skip Schumaker and his .364 OBP as a lead-off hitter. And even if he can't keep his job, Felipe Lopez wouldn't be a bad lead-off option either. Holliday and Ludwick provide solid protection (people think Ludwick dropped off last year, he still drove in 97 runs in 139 games, I'll take that from my third best hitter). I'd love to see a left-handed hitter somewhere in the middle of this line-up, and I'm not sold on Colby Rasmus, or Brendan Ryan, or David Freese, but this line-up is still plenty good.

Pitching: The top two for the Cards can match up with anyone. I thought Wainwright got hosed on the Cy Young voting last year. Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball, so you can worry about the back end of their rotation, but I wouldn't worry that much. If Kyle McClellan wins a spot in the rotation, we might actually see a break out year from him. I like the bullpen too, Ryan Franklin is a stud, don't let anyone tell you different.

Final Thought: St. Louis made a bunch of big mid-season moves last year. I wonder if they've got the organizational depth left to add another bat or another arm if they need one. Also, I'd get worried about this team pretty quickly if Chris Carpenter gets hurt, which is not, like, out of the realm of possibility.

Prediction: First place, playoffs again. I like the Phillies' line-up just a little bit more, so I think the Cards fall just short of the world series, but it's certainly not out of the question.

Houston Astros
It was not easy to figure out the order in which teams fall between St. Louis and Pittsburgh in this division. Like a 7-layer dip of mediocrity, the flavors just sort of blend together. The Astros are a flawed team, but they have a history of futile late season charges, and this season's should land them in 2nd place.

Off-season: Pedro Feliz and Brett Myers are the winter headlines in Houston. Not impressed? I could see how you'd come to that conclusion, but hang on a minute. Pedro is like the new Joe Randa, he has about the same season every year, it's not great, but it's what he does and you can pretty much put it in the bank. I'm not sure what to expect from Myers. He's only 29, but he hasn't pitched to a sub 4 ERA since 2006. You could do worse for a 3rd or 4th starter. Much like the Cardinals, I think this team did what it could with the cash it had.

Line-up: This is an odd line-up. Lee and Berkman aren't done, but I think they'll fall off a bit this year. I do think Hunter Pence is up for a good year, or at least a better one (he hit .309 in September last year, that's not much to go on, but it's all I've got). Michael Bourn is really rounding into form as a solid lead-off guy, .354 on base last year with 61 steals. .354 isn't great, but that's compared to .327 for his career, so at 27 years old it's not crazy to think he can keep it moving upward. On the other hand, they've got a pretty weak underbelly and not a ton of depth. J.R. Towles seems to be the current front runner at catcher, he's a .188 career hitter. That's basically like having two pitchers in your line-up. This team can have its days, but scoring enough runs consistently could be a problem.

Pitching: I'm a huge Roy Oswalt fan, but at 32 it's hard to say he's trending in the right direction (3.54 ERA in 2008, 4.12 last year). I still think he has something left if he's healthy. Wandy Rodriguez was really good last year, and he is trending in the right direction. We already talked about Myers and I really like Bud Norris, who's 25 and struck out almost a batter per inning last year. I'm not wild about the bullpen, but I'm willing to give Matt Lindstrom a chance.

Final Thought: Is it just me, or is Astros one of the weirdest team names in pro sports. I understand why they did it, but that was a long time ago and NASA can't even get back to the moon now. How about the Houston Colts, or the Houston Big Stupid Hats.

Prediction: Solid pitching carries this team to 2nd place, barely. Honestly, the Astros could finish fifth too, it really doesn't matter, I don't expect anyone in this division, outside of St. Louis, to get near the post-season.

Milwaukee Brewers
If there's one thing I like, it's a beer themed baseball team. Beer and baseball go together like beer and...well, everything. Also, I'm told Miller Park has excellent bratwurst, complete with secret stadium sauce. I feel like I could go to a whole game there and never notice the team, which may be a good thing.

Off-season: Not a lot to like here, or even talk about really. Carlos Gomez, Randy Wolf, Gregg Zaun. Hey, Brewers fans! Did I mention the great brats at the ballpark? And if you don't like Brats (for some completely insane reason), they have three or four other kinds of sausages. Not to mention sausage races and all the Miller Lite you can drink. I, by the way, am in no way endorsing Miller Lite. But if you're forcing me to drink a domestic beer, Miller Lite isn't a bad choice.

Line-up: Another odd NL Central line-up. You have to really like Fielder and Braun, and I'm not off the Corey Hart bandwagon yet. Casey McGehee is certainly interesting, .859 OPS last season. But then you have the other guys. Who leads off? Rickie Weeks and his .247 career batting average? Carlos Gomez and his .287 career on base percentage? This line-up has a great middle, but there are a lot of outs here, especially if I'm wrong about Corey Hart.

Pitching: Man, I hate the Brewers' pitching. Before I started looking at rosters, I had Braun and Fielder in my head and I really wanted to pick the Brewers as my wild card team. I like Yovani Gallardo, especially if he can keep his walks down a little. But then you've got the likes of Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis, Manny Parra and Randy Wolf. They really thought they had something in Parra, after a 6.36 ERA last year and opposing hitters hitting .306 against him, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even make the rotation. Miller Park isn't exactly a pitcher's park to begin with. This is another situation where fans might want to bring helmets to the games.

Final Thought: I'm also told that Bernie Brewer no longer slides into a big mug of beer after a Brewer home run. WTF? I am NOT OK with that. When did we all decide that things can't be fun anymore? I hate life sometimes.

Prediction: Third place, or fifth, or second, I don't know. The middle of this division is just a hodge podge, but I do know Milwaukee's pitching will keep them out of the playoffs.

Chicago Cubs
I don't envy Cubs fans. A century of losing, and the White Sox got their title a few years ago, just after the Red Sox did. The Cubs are now really all alone, the undisputed most pathetic losers in sports. I'd really like to tell you I see them putting an end to the pain this year, but I don't.

Off-season: Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady. Sigh. Byrd actually hit .283 last year with 20 home runs, but that was in Texas, and this isn't Texas, and he's 32. I have to say I'd be pretty disappointed if I were a Cubs fan. John Lackey and Jason Bay could both have been nice fits here.

Line-up: This line-up really concerns me. Last year was Derrek Lee's best since 2005, but he's 34 years old and a little injury prone. Aramis Ramirez hit .317 last year when he was healthy, but he only played in 82 games and he's 31. Soriano hit .241 last year, he's 34 years old (or 37 or 43 or 62, no one really knows) and he's already injured. Geovany Soto hit .218 last year. Lots of red flags here. I think people are still expecting the Cubs to hit, I'm not sure why. They'll have their games, but not too many of them.

Pitching: My favorite piece for the Cubs is actually their bullpen. Even with Angel Guzman's shoulder problem, I still like Carlos Marmol and I think the other guys in the bullpen (Grabow, Samardzija) can get to him. You can win a lot of games with decent starters and a good bullpen. Decent starters are the question mark though. I like Big Z, but he's clearly a little crazy. The rest of this rotation is a bit iffy. Guys like Dempster, Lilly and Wells can sometimes get on a roll together and fight their way to a pretty good season, but guys like that can also get lit up at anytime.

Final Thought: When's the last time the Cubs had a big time prospect that really panned out? What happened to Felix Pie? This franchise either drafts badly or develops badly. Both are bad signs for the future.

Prediction: Fourth place, maybe under .500 and Lou Pinella sets a single season ejection record on his way out of town. Next year, new manager Ryne Sandberg starts the long journey to finally winning a championship. But that's next year.

Cincinnati Reds
I went to a game in Cincinnati 5 or 6 years ago. It was July, the Reds were, as usual, going nowhere. I wanted to see Griffey Jr. play in person once before he retired. Of course, I booked the trip in May and Griffey was back on the DL by the time I got there. Still, I had a good time at the game. Great ballpark, good food too (did you know Cincinnati is the chili capital of the world, or at least America? I know, it doesn't sound right, but I swear it's true). The team was pretty forgettable though, and they still are.

Off-season: Two big stories for the Reds this winter. The positive one, signing Aroldis Chapman. After the big money teams passed on him, I was worried he wouldn't be anything special, but now I'm hearing he looks great in camp, and he's only 22. This could turn out pretty well. The negative one, Edinson Volquez is out for the year. Well done, Dusty, well done.

Line-up: I honestly don't hate this line-up. Brandon Phillips is still only 28 and I'm predicting a big year, like top 10 MVP voting year, for Jay Bruce. I know that's a bit of a stretch for a guy who hit .223 and got hurt last year, but I really like Bruce. I'm not sold on everyone else though. Orlando Cabrera's 35, and Scott Rolen is 34 and physically incapable of staying healthy. Clearly, this is an offense in transition, but that doesn't help them this year.

Pitching: I don't like the Reds' pitching without Volquez. I'm not a big Johnny Cueto fan and I think Homer Bailey is probably one year away. I've never been impressed with Harang as an ace and Bronson Arroyo is still Bronson Arroyo, at least he was the last time I checked. Francisco Cordero is a solid closer, I'm just not sure they'll need him much. Does this staff have upside? Definitely. Do I think we'll see that upside this year? Probably not.

Final Thought: I'll be interested to see how much trading the Reds do if they're not in it by July. Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Ramon Hernandez and Arthur Rhodes could all be interesting to contenders if the Reds decide to have a real fire sale. The Reds could be the belle of the trading deadline ball and they could get a ton of good pieces back for these guys. I think I'd do it.

Prediction: Fifth place, although there's potential here to do better. They can't touch the Cardinals either, but they can get to second if things go well.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Here, again, we get to the fun part. This team is awful, an unmitigated disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh lost 100 games. And yet, when you look at them on paper, could I talk you into maybe 83 wins for this team? I bet I could.

Off-season: The Pirates don't even really count for the off-season, but they did actually pick up some players. Ryan Church can really contribute when he's healthy, but will most likely spend the season making Pittsburgh's DL league team the best in the league. Brendan Donnelly is interesting too. Yes, he's 38 and he looked done in 2007 and 2008, but he was lights out in 30 games for Florida last year, so who knows.

Line-up: Young, that's really the only word you need, this line-up is super young. 31 year old Akinori Iwamura sticks out like a sore thumb and has mid-season trade written all over him (if he can stay healthy and produce, both big ifs). Doumit is the key here. If he can stay healthy and hit, this young line-up may be able to come together around him. McCutchen, Milledge, LaRoche, Clement, Jones. If even two of those guys can step up with good years, this team will be able to score and compete most days.

Pitching: I don't hate the Pirates' staff as much as, say, the Nationals, but it's still not good. I like Zack Duke and I sort of like Paul Maholm, but that's pretty much it. We already talked about Brendan Donnelly, and they'll need him whenever they find out Octavio Dotel is done for the year, which could happen at any time. Pittsburgh should give up plenty of runs, but they'll get some good outings from some starters.

Final Thought: This team doesn't have a whole lot to offer contenders at the deadline. It's too bad they can't trade their very nice ballpark for some young pitching.

Prediction: Last place, and it could get ugly. The thing about a young team is you never really know what you're going to get from anyone. I could see this team jumping up and battling the likes of Cincinnati to get out of the basement, but I wouldn't bet on it.