Not So Stupid

Sometime last week, the radio told me that college basketball may very well be expanding the NCAA tournament to 96 teams. My first reaction, like most people, was "that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard!". Part of me still thinks I may be right about that. First, here's my understanding of how it would work.

Teams would be seeded 1-24 in each region. On the Tuesday and Wednesday before the games usually start, teams 9 and 24 would play each other, 10 and 23, etc etc. Then, the winners of those games would play the top eight seeds and the schedule would continue as it always has.

First of all, why mess with the best sports event in the world. The first Thursday/Friday round of the NCAA tournament is absolutely the best sports we get all year, and it's not even close. If anyone wants to argue the NHL playoffs are better, I'm listening, but you need to get them back on my TV. If anyone wants to argue the world cup is better, go live in South America with the rest of the soccer fans.

This new schedule would definitely take out some of the first week excitement. For example, everyone watched 15 seed Robert Morris almost shock 2 seed Villanova. Under the new system, Robert Morris probably still has that scrappy almost-win, but it happens on Tuesday against the 6th best team in the Big Ten and no one really cares. So that's kind of a bad thing.

More importantly for me, the people who run college basketball are basically the same morons who run college football. The idea of tinkering with the best thing they have (the NCAA tournament) while doing nothing about America's greatest sports abomination (the unforgivable bowl system) makes me want to put all 120 division one college presidents in a room, lock the door and release the hounds, or the bees, or the hounds with bees in their mouths so when they bark they shoot bees at you.

Clearly, I have my concerns. The more I thought about it though, this expansion idea actually started to make more sense. I'm a numbers guy, here's my argument:

The NFL: 32 teams, 12 make the playoffs. That's 37.5%
The NBA: 30 teams, 16 make the playoffs. That's 53.3%
Baseball: 30 teams, 8 make the playoffs. That's 26.7%
The NHL: still at a ridiculous 30 teams, 16 make the playoffs. Also 53.3%
Big Time College Football: 120 teams, 34 bowls for 68 teams. That's 56.7%

Wait, forget about that last one. The college football post-season doesn't count for anything, ever. But I think the rest of it makes a compelling argument.

There are 347 division one basketball teams, and that number will probably keep growing. Currently 65 of those teams make the real tournament, that's only 18.7%. Even 96 teams would only bump it up to 27.7%, barely more than baseball and way less than the other three major sports.

I know, there's also the NIT and CBI tournaments, which would bring the total post-season count for college basketball to 113, or 32.6%. That's still less than everything but baseball. Also, the NIT and CBI don't count and definitely shouldn't keep happening. Congratulations Dayton, you're approximately the 50th best team in your sport this year! Go crazy!

Why not give college basketball more teams in the real post-season? Especially since most college basketball players aren't going to the NBA or any other pro league. This is their only shot at playing in a meaningful playoff game. And for the fans, we get two more days of pretty competitive games. Would you trade a few of the exciting moments from this year's tournament for two whole extra days of games? I feel like I would. You'd have to at least consider it, right?

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - AL West

Two divisions today, lots of baseball to talk about, so let's get right into it, except for this one quick comment. Am I the only one who's already bored with the NCAA tournament? I feel like this happens every year. The first weekend is always the best weekend. There's just so many games and upsets and schools you've never heard of before. This week I didn't even look in on the tournament until The Office and 30 Rock were over. I don't have a solution or a suggestion here, it's just the way it is. OK, let's talk about my new favorite baseball division.

Seattle Mariners
The Oklahoma City Thunder look like the early years of the Jordan Bulls right now, as in, not this year, but wait a couple of years and look out. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are just awful, they weren't the worst team in the NFL this year, but they sure looked like it whenever I saw them. The people of Seattle clearly deserve better, and like a knight in shining armor, here come the Mariners.

Off-season: Lee, Figgins, Bradley, Kotchman, Garko, re-signing King Felix. If you read my hot stove blogs, you already know how I feel about Seattle's excellent winter exploits. If you didn't, what are you waiting for?

Line-up: As much as I like this team, this line-up is still missing power. Having said that, Ichiro and Figgins give them so much speed and OBP at the top, I don't think they'll need a ton of power. Jose Lopez is an underrated and still pretty young guy and Milton Bradley can hit for as long as he can stay sane and healthy. This team will score just enough.

Pitching: When I say score just enough, that's with the understanding that they won't need much. King Felix and Cliff Lee could easily be the best one-two punch around. If and when Erik Bedard gets back, this won't be a team any line-up looks forward to facing. I like Ian Snell too. David Aardsma is a solid closer and has the most fun name in baseball (try it, Aaaarrrrrrdsma! I told you it would be fun). Lots of close wins for this team.

Final Thought: AAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRDSMA!

Prediction: First place, probably not enough offense to get past the first round of the playoffs. But let me tell you something. If the Yankees get the Mariners in round one, and all three of Seattle's top starters are healthy and pitching well, I will be terrified. Terrified!

Los Angeles Angels
I've never liked this team. They gave us rally monkeys and thunder sticks. They ruined Barry Bonds' best shot at a title. They've changed their name 7 or 8 times. It seems like they always beat the Yankees. So I was all ready, and frankly a little excited, to pick this team for third or fourth place and a down year. Then I looked at their roster and it actually looks pretty good. Stupid reality, always ruining my fun.

Off-season: The Angels lost their ace and their lead-off hitter, and didn't really replace either of them. I do like Joel Pinero for them, Fernando Rodney too. I'm not so sure about the Matsui signing. Matsui's games played for the last five seasons go like this: 162, 51, 143, 93 and 142. For what it's worth, that pattern doesn't bode well for 2010. Overall, this winter was a minus for the Angels, but not as bad as I thought.

Line-up: The Angels can hit. I really like Brandon Wood, and Howie Kendrick can win a batting title someday if he ever plays a full season. You want a big bat? How about Kendry Morales? (.304, 34 HR, 108 RBI last year) On opening day, this team has a great line-up. Here's my concern. Between old guys and brittle guys, I count six opening day starters who are just as likely to miss huge chunks of the season as they are to play a full healthy one. If they lose two or three of those guys, this offense goes from excellent to ordinary.

Pitching: The Scott Kazmir trade last summer was interesting, I'm not sure what the Rays were thinking there, but I know I like what the Angels got. I like Pinero and I like Ervin Santana if he stays healthy. As a Yankee fan, I can't bring myself to trust anyone named Weaver, but this rotation should still be pretty solid. The bullpen is a little more iffy. I said I like Fernando Rodney, but he has trouble staying healthy too. Brian Fuentes saved 48 games last year, but he also blew 7 saves and pitched to a 3.93 ERA, not very impressive. I see the Angels losing a lot of games late.

Final Thought: I'm really not sure how this team let John Lackey get away. I've never liked him as an ace, but a team needs an ace, and Lackey was the Angels' ace. I look at this team now, and I see a bunch of pitchers that don't scare anyone.

Prediction: Second place. They could win the division if they stay healthy, but the lack of an ace would kill them in the playoffs.

Texas Rangers
I'd be willing to sell Texas to Mexico for, literally, any price. It is both our hottest and our stupidest state. I don't know if either of those opinions are actually backed up by anything, but in true Texas fashion, I'm just saying whatever seems like it might be true. Dear Texas, I'll stop calling you stupid when you stop screwing up everyone's text books. Love, Sean.

Off-season: This is another team whose off-season I've already talked about quite a bit. To recap, Rich Harden and Vlad Guerrero are two more guys who may or may not be standing by June. I'm willing to buy the possibility of a big year from one of them, but not both. Of course, I didn't get to say what I think about the Ron Washington cocaine story. As usual, I think that I don't understand why I'm supposed to care.

Line-up: Lots to like in this line-up, other than Chris Davis' awful .238 batting average and .284 OBP last year. This team has speed (Andrus, Borbon), guys who can hit for high averages (Young, Hamilton, Guerrero) and plenty of power (Cruz, Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis when he's not striking out). Keep an eye out for Justin Smoak at first base, but even if they keep Chris Davis there all year and he strikes out 400 times, this team should score a ton of runs.

Pitching: Texas is stacked with good young arms. If they all deliver, Texas can win the division. You know how I feel about counting on young guys though, plus Harden has looked pretty pedestrian this spring. I hardly ever put any stock in spring numbers, but if I'm Texas, I would have wanted to see something from Harden that tells me he's ready to be healthy and effective. I like the Texas bullpen. Frank Francisco is a solid closer with a cool name and he's got a good group of set-up guys. Lots of upside here, but pitching in Texas tends to wear down over the summer, and I'm predicting that again until I see something different.

Final Thought: I know I said I didn't care about Ron Washington's cocaine story, and I don't, except to say this. Don't you think Josh Hamilton's team, of all teams, would want to keep drugs as far away from their team as possible?

Prediction: Third place. Like I said, lots of upside here with a team that can definitely score. The playoffs aren't out of the question, I just think Texas isn't the best bet, not this year anyway.

Oakland Athletics
Have you ever noticed the elephant on the A's uniforms? Apparently, this goes back over 100 years to John McGraw suggesting the A's franchise was a white elephant. I can't decide if trash talking sucked in the past, or if it was awesome.

Off-season: The A's popped up out of almost nowhere to sign Ben Sheets. They also added Coco Crisp and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Typical quiet winter for Oakland. I'm interested to see what happens if Crisp plays a full, healthy season. Of course, Coco's already dealing with injuries in spring training, so I don't think I'll get my wish.

Line-up: I don't see a lot to like here. I'm trying to figure out who their best hitter is supposed to be. Jack Cust hit 25 HR's last year, but he also hit .240. Ryan Sweeney and Rajaj Davis hit for the highest averages on the team last year, but, combined, they had 9 HR's and 101 RBI in 874 at-bats. Kurt Suzuki looks like the best all around guy, .274, 15 HR, 88 RBI. Yikes. Take the under on A's games, is what I'm saying.

Pitching: If Ben Sheets has a healthy year, he can still be an ace. I'm less sold on Justin Duchscherer's ability to return to his 2008 form, but you never know. Like Texas, this team has some promising young arms that could produce. Unlike Texas, it doesn't look like Oakland's young arms will find a whole lot of run support behind them. Andrew Bailey is a strong closer, but they probably won't have a lot of leads for him to protect.

Final Thought: This team has moved west twice in its long history. I think it's time for a third move. Goodbye California, hello Hawaii A's.

Prediction: Last place. Just not enough offense. The A's jump up and surprise us every few years, and they were pretty competitive after the all-star break last year, so you never know. I just don't see it.

Socialism: Day One

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is the best weekend of the year, and I'm not even a huge college basketball fan. Under the circumstances, I think it was perfect timing. It was like one last great American party before everything changed. Late last night, the House of Representatives passed the health care bill, which means we're now a socialist country, and we don't get to enjoy cool American stuff like the NCAA tournament anymore. It makes perfect sense, because, when I think of socialist/marxist/communists, like say, Hitler and Stalin, I immediately think "health care".

I have to say though, my first day in the United Socialist States of America has been a little disappointing. I mean, look, I'm not happy about being a socialist now, I really liked the old America. But, I've decided to adopt a positive attitude and make the best of our new system of government. I know it's only been one day, but so far, I feel like I'm not getting what I was promised.

I still had to get up and go to work today. I didn't think I'd have to do that anymore. I was expecting the government to just send me some free money that I didn't have to work for. It's a good thing I took a day off on Friday. If I had been at work Friday, knowing socialism was coming on Sunday, I might have quit my job. Without a job or my free government money, I'd be totally screwed right now. Maybe my free money will come at the end of the week, like pay checks do. I'll be waiting.

What about President Obama's death panels? I was sure the government was going to start killing everyone's grandparents as soon as this bill was passed. So far, I don't know of anybody in my family being put to death by the government. It could be that I just don't know about it yet, but I feel like my mother would have called.

"Gee, Sean, lack of death panels doesn't seem like a reason to be disappointed". True, but we all know the death panels are coming, they were a key component of the bill. It's sort of like when you were a kid and you did something really bad. You knew your parents were going to punish you, but then they didn't right away. You spent the rest of the day terrified, just waiting for them to do something. I feel the same way now. I know the death panels are coming, I wish the President would just get it over with. Right now, we don't know who's going to die, or when, or how. This waiting seems cruel and unusual.

Speaking of death, I know for a fact that freedom died yesterday. Republicans in Congress were very clear about this. It's bad enough that I was apparently not invited to the funeral, freedom and I were pretty close, but I haven't even seen a lot of TV coverage. Fox is the only channel really talking about it, and they seem more in denial than anything else. TV covered Michael Jackson's death for like two weeks. Hell, the death of Corey Haim got a few days. Nothing for the death of freedom? I'm disappointed.

Also, since Republicans on TV have been telling me that we're heading toward European-style socialism, I was expecting something with soccer. Europeans love soccer, and I assume it's a key part of their particular brand of socialism. I was expecting something like a $1,000 check in the mail, in exchange for which I would be required to attend and enjoy soccer games. There's soccer happening outside my window right now and, well, I still hate it. Now, I haven't received my soccer subsidy yet, so maybe my feelings will change when it arrives.

What about all the slavery reparations? Glenn Beck was adamant about this bill being part of a secret plan to redistribute wealth in an effort to make reparations for slavery. Shouldn't there be a guy at my door collecting money? Maybe because my family wasn't here until the 1900's I get out of this one. That kind of makes sense, but I don't know, Glenn didn't say anything like that, and he said he was telling me the whole truth. I'll have to check the text of the bill. (Glenn, by the way, is in full tantrum mode right now, it's hilarious)

As a matter of fact, I haven't even noticed a drastic change to my health insurance yet. I think I'm still on the same plan I had last week. I thought they were sending a government bureaucrat to come stand between me and my doctor (in my case, it's an imaginary doctor, because I don't go to doctors and you can't make me). Maybe I'll try to make a doctor's appointment later this week, just to see how crazy and different it is.

I don't know. Maybe socialism is like quitting smoking. When people quit smoking, they don't just magically become 100% healthy right away, it takes a little time. Maybe I should just be patient and wait a few weeks. Or maybe this bill's full socialist effect won't happen until the Senate is done passing the reconciliation fixes. That's certainly possible.

The only other possibility is that Republicans and TV conservatives were lying to me about what was going to happen when this bill passed. No, no that's ridiculous. What kind of person would make up lies to try and defeat a bill that aims to insure over 30 million people? What kind of monster would go on TV, day after day, and hammer a health care bill just to further their own career? No, I don't think any of my TV friends would do that...

OK, OK, I've had my fun. Do I have any serious thoughts about the bill?

1) I don't love this bill, but I'll buy it as a step in the right direction. The pre-existing condition thing is solid policy. So is the part about not kicking people off their plans when they get sick. Allowing kids to stay on parents' policies longer in this economy is a nice touch too. I'm not sure why most of the other good stuff doesn't kick in until 2014, but it probably has something to do with our government being barely functional.

2) I really don't like the individual mandate. I know it's hard to affordably insure sick people without making healthy people be part of the pool. That doesn't mean I have to like it. There isn't a little fine print section at the end of the Constitution that reads "*feel free to violate this document if it makes doing what you want to do too hard". I wonder about Constitutional challenges here. I'm sure I could find something in article one, section eight to uphold this, but, as you may have noticed, I'm not actually on the Supreme Court, so what I can find doesn't matter all that much.

The only thing that blunts my problem with this is the fact that I don't feel like I've ever had a choice. I've had three jobs that provided benefits. All of them just signed me up for a plan, they didn't ask me if I wanted one. Maybe I had to ask about it, like the secret menu at in-n-out burger. Oh well.

3) I especially don't like the individual mandate without a public option. We're basically just forcing everyone to buy insurance from the companies that are already screwing us. Only now we're making it slightly harder to screw us and we're providing subsidies (for the buying, not the screwing, I think).

4) This whole abortion thing is stupid. First of all, it's apparently a nonsense debate because, for reasons I obviously don't fully understand, federal funding of abortion is already illegal. Undeterred by reality, yesterday, Congressman Mike Pence (R-Imagination Land) said it is "morally wrong" to use the tax dollars of pro-life Americans to fund abortion. Really, moron? Quoting one of my all-time favorite TV characters, "I don't know where you get the idea that taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for anything of which they disapprove. Lots of them don't like tanks, even more don't like Congress." Is it morally wrong to use the tax dollars of anti-war Americans to fund the military? Of course it isn't.

Someone should have the authority to immediately throw people like Pence out of Congress for stupidity (put that on my list of dream jobs, right near the top too). Either that, or we should send Pence, Michelle Bachmann and Steve King (not the crazy novelist, the crazy Congressman from Iowa) down to the basement of the Capitol to guard the bee whenever Congress is trying to do something serious.

Bachmann: "Duh, Mike, why are we down here?"
Pence: "Aw geez, I told you Michelle, to guard the bee."
King: "But whyyyy?"
Pence: "You guys are pathetic. No wonder Pelosi made me head bee guy."

5) Speaking of abortion, I don't understand how these Republicans can all be against giving more people health insurance. Aren't these the "right to life" people? I'm positive I've seen that on a Republican sign somewhere. Won't it be easier for people to exercise their right to life if they can, you know, stay alive?

6) My favorite part of Health Care Day (that's what I'm calling yesterday, I think it'll catch on) was MSNBC's brief coverage of tea party idiots trying, and apparently failing, to spell out the word "no" on a lawn near the Capitol building. I'm sure they got it right eventually, and MSNBC was probably just mocking them a little to gloat. It was still funny though.

On a more serious note, these tea morons have me seriously considering changing my party affiliation from Republican to Independent. I'm still up in the air about it. Congratulations tea people, you are so ridiculous, so blatantly racist and ignorant, you've got me considering leaving a party that I was willing to share with fundamentalist christians.

7) How many times in the next seven or eight months do you think a Republican somewhere will say the bill was passed in the middle of the night or under the cover of darkness (spooooky!)?

8) Finally, is it possible that the Democrats did something (gulp) politically smart? Follow me on this. Sometime early last week, the Democrats started talking about using this deem and pass procedure, which would have allowed them to deem the Senate bill passed through the House without actually having a direct vote on the Senate bill. Republicans freaked out, and rightfully so. We spent the rest of the week listening to Republicans complain about the process.

Then, Saturday, the Democrats announced they'd just pass the Senate bill with a regular vote. It almost seems like they intentionally tricked the Republicans into spending the last week of debate arguing about a process issue that never actually came up instead of making points about the weaknesses of the actual bill. This left the Republican message a little jumbled going into the vote. I think the Democrats just won a political chess match. Politically competent Democrats? Hold me, I'm afraid.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL West

Two very quick comments before we get to the baseball. First, obviously, I couldn't be happier about Tiger Woods returning at the Masters. I hope he wins by 200 strokes. I hope he wins by so much that other golfers are forced to consider adultery as a strategy for improving their games.

Second, I didn't do picks for the NCAA tournament, but if you're looking for a surprise team to go to the sweet 16, maybe even the elite 8, look at Murray State. They came in with 30 wins, they beat Vanderbilt yesterday (not a fluke, they're a better team), almost beat California on the road in November and they pounded 15 seed Morgan State in ESPN's bracket busters last month. Of course, my bracket is already in shambles by now (thanks Georgetown), so you probably shouldn't listen to me. Anyway...

Arizona Diamondbacks
I own an Arizona Diamondbacks jersey. I'm not sure I could tell you why, especially since the Diamondbacks are responsible for one of the most crushing Yankees loses in my lifetime. I think I just liked the black and red color scheme. I wore it out once, it happened to be a day the Mets were playing the D'Backs, that was a mistake. It has since been retired to the far reaches of my closet.

Off-season: This was a tough division to pick, I'm not wild about any of these teams. I bring that up now because the Arizona off-season is what put them on top for me. I really like Edwin Jackson for them. Last year wasn't a fluke, he was a name brand prospect for a while and it seems like he's finally figured it out. I expect another good season from Edwin, better even because I think we won't get the late season slide again this year. They added Adam LaRoche (20+ HR, 80+ RBI, .270+ AVG every year since 2006) and Kelly Johnson. Heilman's a solid bullpen addition too. Also, don't forget they get Conor Jackson and Brandon Webb back this year after basically getting nothing from them last year (that's not entirely true, what they got from Jackson last year was actually worse than nothing).

Line-Up: There's a lot to like here. Justin Upton is a legit star. Steven Drew, Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds are all solid, and Drew may still have a little more room for improvement. You have to expect Chris Young to bounce back, at least a little, from last year's disaster (he hit .212, and unlike Conor Jackson, he doesn't have a rare illness to blame it on). If Upton doesn't have his first of what should be many huge years, they may be a bat short, but I think Upton's ready to carry this offense to big things.

Pitching: We already talked about Edwin Jackson. He and Danny Haren already make a pretty good one-two punch. If Brandon Webb is healthy by May and has the kind of year he's capable of having (Webb won 56 games in the three seasons before last year, think Chris Carpenter from last year), this rotation will get scary. I don't love Chad Qualls (3.63 ERA last year, bleh), but I do like the additions of Bobby Howry and Heilman, so I think this bullpen can figure out how to get it done.

Final Thought: To be fair, I should mention that this is probably the third year in a row I've really liked Arizona before the season started, it hasn't always worked out well. In some ways, this goes back to what I said about the Pirates, you never know exactly what you'll get from a bunch of young guys, even if they are talented. But this team isn't so young anymore, and I love their pitching, so I'm sold.

Prediction: First place, but probably a first round playoff loss. As much as I like their pitching, Haren always struggles in the second half, you don't know how Webb will hold up and while I'm predicting a stronger second half from Jackson, I'm not really basing that on anything. They'll have to play St. Louis or Philly in the first round, and I don't see that turning out well.

Colorado Rockies
Wait, I thought the Rockies moved to New Jersey in 1982 and ruined hockey with their neutral zone trap. Ohhhh, right, this is about the baseball team. Interesting fact #1, Dave Nied was the Rockies' first pick in the 1992 expansion draft. Interesting fact #2, Dave Nied won a total of 14 games for the Rockies in his career. Interesting fact #3, it took the Rockies' pitching roughly 15 years to recover.

Off-season: Not much to talk about here. Garrett Atkins is gone. Now who's gonna hit .226 with 9 home runs? Oh right, Ian Stewart (.228 last year, more home runs though). They picked up Melvin Mora and brought back Jason Giambi, so that's good. Unless this is 2010. Is this 2010? Oh, well then that probably won't help much.

Line-up: I'm not wild about this line-up, but I'll tell you what I like. Everyone on this team can hit. I don't know who can be the really big bats for this team, the 3 and 4 hitters, but they've got plenty of guys who can have solid seasons. I'm not sure how much Todd Helton has left, but he hit .325 last year, so maybe one more good year? Still, even without a good year from Helton, they should have enough.

Pitching: I'm a big fan of this team's pitching, maybe even a little more than the D'Backs. Ubaldo Jimenez is a legit ace and Cook and De La Rosa are solid. If Jeff Francis comes back strong, this team can win a lot of games with pitching. I like the bullpen too, I'm not super high on Huston Street, but he's good enough and he's got a lot of help. Expect this team to win a lot of 3-2 games.

Final Thought: For an expansion team, I actually like Denver quite a bit as a baseball town. How is it that the Marlins have 2 titles to the Rockies' 0 since they came in together and yet no one wants to go to Marlins' games but the Rockies are still doing pretty well with attendance? Good baseball town, that's how.

Prediction: Second place, and my pick for the NL wild card. Congrats Rockies, you get the honor of being pummeled by the Phillies in October!

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are exhibit A for why I don't believe in sports curses. If teams could actually be cursed, there's no way the Dodgers would have any championships since ditching Brooklyn for Los Angeles. The curse of the Bamino, the Chicago goat thing, all nonsense. Of course, maybe I'm wrong, maybe the baseball gods think having to play in front of fans who leave early because of traffic is already enough of a curse.

Off-season: Something about a divorce and the Dodgers not having money to spend kept them from doing anything notable this winter. John Lackey would have been an excellent fit here. It's fun seeing what happens when Joe Torre has to do more than just sit back and point his great team toward the field.

Line-up: I've always been a big Manny fan. I think he has a strong year and I like this line-up. Even if Torre has murdered Russell Martin's career, they still have Manny, Kemp, Either and Loney (look at Loney's stats for the last two years, they're damn near identical, he's like a machine, and a relatively productive machine too). The true effectiveness of this line-up will really depend on the size of Manny's year, but this team can hit.

Pitching: I really like the Dodgers' bullpen. Sure, Joe Torre is already well on his way to destroying Jonathan Broxton's shoulder, but until we finish that journey, this may be the best bullpen in baseball. Unfortunately, the Dodgers' starting pitching is a mess. I like Kershaw and Billingsley, but then what? This team would need an awful lot of wins from Hideki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla to win this division. How likely does that sound to you?

Final Thought: The Dodgers are sort of a wild card because they're a big money team acting like a small money team because of an ownership situation. If they start acting like a big money team again around the deadline, they can pick up some pitching and make things interesting.

Prediction: Third place. Could get better with added pitching, but they could also get a lot worse if they get injured (or if Manny stops caring for whatever reason). I imagine a lot of people picking this team to win the division, but something here just doesn't feel right.

San Francisco Giants
MLB.com has Barry Zito listed as the Giants' number two starter. Before Jonathan Sanchez and before Matt Cain. Are they just taunting Giants fans? I can't remember a situation like this in baseball, or any other sport. Everyone knew Barry Zito was done, other teams, fans, Oakland, everyone. Everyone except the Giants, who gave him a huge, ridiculous contract and have 31 wins over three completely healthy seasons to show for it. The Giants should be suspended from signing free agents for a year as punishment.

Off-season: I don't mind the DeRosa signing, somebody had to. But Aubrey Huff? Huff saw a little bit of a resurgence in Baltimore, until last year when he hit .241. Now he's moving to a pitcher's ballpark in a league with better pitching to begin with. Call me skeptical, but I don't see this ending well.

Line-up: Pablo Sandoval can hit. I mean he can rake. If I were a baseball, I would run in the other direction when I saw him coming. Unfortunately, I hate the rest of this line-up. Last year's big signing, Edgar Renteria, hit .250 last year, and I don't expect him to get any better. Remember when I said the Rockies would win a lot of 3-2 games? Well, I expect the Giants to be on the losing end of about 7 of those.

Pitching: I do like the pitching for the Giants. Aside from Zito (who actually wasn't awful last year, 11 wins, 4.03 ERA. Could have been a lot worse, like the two previous years when he posted ERAs over 5), this rotation is excellent. Lincecum and Cain are studs, and I like Jonathan Sanchez too. I'm on the Madison Bumgarner band wagon. That's four good starters, so while I don't like this team's offense at all, they certainly have the pitching to keep games close and compete.

Final Thought: I definitely want to get to a game at AT&T Park, or whatever they're calling it this week. It looks really nice and I bet it would be cool to spend a game in McCovey Cove. Plus I hear they have awesome garlic fries. You probably can't get the fries in the cove though, I'd have to choose (spoiler alert: I choose the fries).

Prediction: Fourth place, but they could do better. In a division with good pitching, every team has a shot. If the Giants get monster years from one or two guys, they could contend.

San Diego Padres
Remember when I said I could talk you into winning seasons for Pittsburgh and Washington? Yeah, well, not this time. I've looked at the San Diego roster from every angle, looking for signs of hope. All I found was Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of guys I've never heard of.

Off-season: They signed Jerry Hairston Jr. and Jon Garland. I didn't hate Garland as an idea for good teams, but I don't see how he helps the Padres. Probably the best part of the off-season for San Diego fans was not trading Adrian Gonzalez. Beware, trades can still happen in the spring and they can definitely happen in the summer.

Line-up: Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks can hit home runs. More importantly, look at the picture of Kyle Blanks on ESPN.com or MLB.com. It looks like they used a time machine to import him from the 70's. I think the Padres could really make this season fun by requiring every player to adopt a different 70's hair style.

Pitching: I've heard good things about Mat Latos, so that should be something interesting to watch. The rest of this staff is an abomination, especially compared to all the good pitching in this division. Even if Heath Bell has another solid year, which I wouldn't bet on (he's 32 this year), he'll be setting up for Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon by August 1st. Chris Young had an ERA of 5.21 in 76 innings last year. The thing about very tall pitchers is, if they lose their mechanics, it's really hard to get them back, too many moving parts. Young could bounce back this year, but he could also be done.

Final Thought: Boooooooo! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Prediction: Last place, I'd put good money on it. Every other team in this division is demonstrably better than San Diego. I see no logical way this team can win more than 65 games or get anywhere near the playoffs. Luckily, Padres fans live in San Diego, so life's still pretty good.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL Central

This is the week every year when college basketball goes from being almost as good as college football to being a billion times better. How can anyone watch championship week and the NCAA tournament and still not want a playoff for football? Do you have to fail an IQ test to be a college president? Let's get to the baseball before I punch something.

St. Louis Cardinals
I really like the Cardinal organization. Classy, great baseball city, excellent history. If the Yankees suddenly disappeared, I'd be a Cardinals fan, I wouldn't even have to think about it. When I heard the Cardinals were hiring Mark McGwire to be their new hitting coach, I was pretty shocked. And not, "oh wow, that restaurant was better than I thought it would be" shocked, but more like, "how did that monkey get in my car?" shocked. I thought we were all pretty happy pretending Mark McGwire never existed. I actually thought Mark was pretty happy with that situation too. But after thinking about it for a bit, I've decided this was another classy move from the Cardinals. Here's a guy who did a lot for the Cardinal organization, and then we all found out about the steroids and everyone wants to close their eyes and pretend he's invisible, but not the Cardinals. They're willing to take the heat and give him a chance, I don't have a problem with it. Good for them.

Off-season: Quiet winter for the Cards. They have money, but not a ton, and the money they had needed to go to Matt Holliday. Holliday seems to be a good fit in St. Louis and I think he needs to be somewhere where he can be second banana, so I think St. Louis is a good fit for him too. I like Felipe Lopez for them, because I don't love most of their infield, and Brad Penny was a good bargain signing for them. I would have liked to have seen them add another pitcher, but they can probably live without it.

Line-up: Having the best hitter in the game is a pretty good start, right? You'd have a pretty hard time building a bad line-up around Albert Pujols. And St. Louis has actually built a pretty good line-up around him. If he manages to keep his second base job, I like Skip Schumaker and his .364 OBP as a lead-off hitter. And even if he can't keep his job, Felipe Lopez wouldn't be a bad lead-off option either. Holliday and Ludwick provide solid protection (people think Ludwick dropped off last year, he still drove in 97 runs in 139 games, I'll take that from my third best hitter). I'd love to see a left-handed hitter somewhere in the middle of this line-up, and I'm not sold on Colby Rasmus, or Brendan Ryan, or David Freese, but this line-up is still plenty good.

Pitching: The top two for the Cards can match up with anyone. I thought Wainwright got hosed on the Cy Young voting last year. Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball, so you can worry about the back end of their rotation, but I wouldn't worry that much. If Kyle McClellan wins a spot in the rotation, we might actually see a break out year from him. I like the bullpen too, Ryan Franklin is a stud, don't let anyone tell you different.

Final Thought: St. Louis made a bunch of big mid-season moves last year. I wonder if they've got the organizational depth left to add another bat or another arm if they need one. Also, I'd get worried about this team pretty quickly if Chris Carpenter gets hurt, which is not, like, out of the realm of possibility.

Prediction: First place, playoffs again. I like the Phillies' line-up just a little bit more, so I think the Cards fall just short of the world series, but it's certainly not out of the question.

Houston Astros
It was not easy to figure out the order in which teams fall between St. Louis and Pittsburgh in this division. Like a 7-layer dip of mediocrity, the flavors just sort of blend together. The Astros are a flawed team, but they have a history of futile late season charges, and this season's should land them in 2nd place.

Off-season: Pedro Feliz and Brett Myers are the winter headlines in Houston. Not impressed? I could see how you'd come to that conclusion, but hang on a minute. Pedro is like the new Joe Randa, he has about the same season every year, it's not great, but it's what he does and you can pretty much put it in the bank. I'm not sure what to expect from Myers. He's only 29, but he hasn't pitched to a sub 4 ERA since 2006. You could do worse for a 3rd or 4th starter. Much like the Cardinals, I think this team did what it could with the cash it had.

Line-up: This is an odd line-up. Lee and Berkman aren't done, but I think they'll fall off a bit this year. I do think Hunter Pence is up for a good year, or at least a better one (he hit .309 in September last year, that's not much to go on, but it's all I've got). Michael Bourn is really rounding into form as a solid lead-off guy, .354 on base last year with 61 steals. .354 isn't great, but that's compared to .327 for his career, so at 27 years old it's not crazy to think he can keep it moving upward. On the other hand, they've got a pretty weak underbelly and not a ton of depth. J.R. Towles seems to be the current front runner at catcher, he's a .188 career hitter. That's basically like having two pitchers in your line-up. This team can have its days, but scoring enough runs consistently could be a problem.

Pitching: I'm a huge Roy Oswalt fan, but at 32 it's hard to say he's trending in the right direction (3.54 ERA in 2008, 4.12 last year). I still think he has something left if he's healthy. Wandy Rodriguez was really good last year, and he is trending in the right direction. We already talked about Myers and I really like Bud Norris, who's 25 and struck out almost a batter per inning last year. I'm not wild about the bullpen, but I'm willing to give Matt Lindstrom a chance.

Final Thought: Is it just me, or is Astros one of the weirdest team names in pro sports. I understand why they did it, but that was a long time ago and NASA can't even get back to the moon now. How about the Houston Colts, or the Houston Big Stupid Hats.

Prediction: Solid pitching carries this team to 2nd place, barely. Honestly, the Astros could finish fifth too, it really doesn't matter, I don't expect anyone in this division, outside of St. Louis, to get near the post-season.

Milwaukee Brewers
If there's one thing I like, it's a beer themed baseball team. Beer and baseball go together like beer and...well, everything. Also, I'm told Miller Park has excellent bratwurst, complete with secret stadium sauce. I feel like I could go to a whole game there and never notice the team, which may be a good thing.

Off-season: Not a lot to like here, or even talk about really. Carlos Gomez, Randy Wolf, Gregg Zaun. Hey, Brewers fans! Did I mention the great brats at the ballpark? And if you don't like Brats (for some completely insane reason), they have three or four other kinds of sausages. Not to mention sausage races and all the Miller Lite you can drink. I, by the way, am in no way endorsing Miller Lite. But if you're forcing me to drink a domestic beer, Miller Lite isn't a bad choice.

Line-up: Another odd NL Central line-up. You have to really like Fielder and Braun, and I'm not off the Corey Hart bandwagon yet. Casey McGehee is certainly interesting, .859 OPS last season. But then you have the other guys. Who leads off? Rickie Weeks and his .247 career batting average? Carlos Gomez and his .287 career on base percentage? This line-up has a great middle, but there are a lot of outs here, especially if I'm wrong about Corey Hart.

Pitching: Man, I hate the Brewers' pitching. Before I started looking at rosters, I had Braun and Fielder in my head and I really wanted to pick the Brewers as my wild card team. I like Yovani Gallardo, especially if he can keep his walks down a little. But then you've got the likes of Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis, Manny Parra and Randy Wolf. They really thought they had something in Parra, after a 6.36 ERA last year and opposing hitters hitting .306 against him, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even make the rotation. Miller Park isn't exactly a pitcher's park to begin with. This is another situation where fans might want to bring helmets to the games.

Final Thought: I'm also told that Bernie Brewer no longer slides into a big mug of beer after a Brewer home run. WTF? I am NOT OK with that. When did we all decide that things can't be fun anymore? I hate life sometimes.

Prediction: Third place, or fifth, or second, I don't know. The middle of this division is just a hodge podge, but I do know Milwaukee's pitching will keep them out of the playoffs.

Chicago Cubs
I don't envy Cubs fans. A century of losing, and the White Sox got their title a few years ago, just after the Red Sox did. The Cubs are now really all alone, the undisputed most pathetic losers in sports. I'd really like to tell you I see them putting an end to the pain this year, but I don't.

Off-season: Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady. Sigh. Byrd actually hit .283 last year with 20 home runs, but that was in Texas, and this isn't Texas, and he's 32. I have to say I'd be pretty disappointed if I were a Cubs fan. John Lackey and Jason Bay could both have been nice fits here.

Line-up: This line-up really concerns me. Last year was Derrek Lee's best since 2005, but he's 34 years old and a little injury prone. Aramis Ramirez hit .317 last year when he was healthy, but he only played in 82 games and he's 31. Soriano hit .241 last year, he's 34 years old (or 37 or 43 or 62, no one really knows) and he's already injured. Geovany Soto hit .218 last year. Lots of red flags here. I think people are still expecting the Cubs to hit, I'm not sure why. They'll have their games, but not too many of them.

Pitching: My favorite piece for the Cubs is actually their bullpen. Even with Angel Guzman's shoulder problem, I still like Carlos Marmol and I think the other guys in the bullpen (Grabow, Samardzija) can get to him. You can win a lot of games with decent starters and a good bullpen. Decent starters are the question mark though. I like Big Z, but he's clearly a little crazy. The rest of this rotation is a bit iffy. Guys like Dempster, Lilly and Wells can sometimes get on a roll together and fight their way to a pretty good season, but guys like that can also get lit up at anytime.

Final Thought: When's the last time the Cubs had a big time prospect that really panned out? What happened to Felix Pie? This franchise either drafts badly or develops badly. Both are bad signs for the future.

Prediction: Fourth place, maybe under .500 and Lou Pinella sets a single season ejection record on his way out of town. Next year, new manager Ryne Sandberg starts the long journey to finally winning a championship. But that's next year.

Cincinnati Reds
I went to a game in Cincinnati 5 or 6 years ago. It was July, the Reds were, as usual, going nowhere. I wanted to see Griffey Jr. play in person once before he retired. Of course, I booked the trip in May and Griffey was back on the DL by the time I got there. Still, I had a good time at the game. Great ballpark, good food too (did you know Cincinnati is the chili capital of the world, or at least America? I know, it doesn't sound right, but I swear it's true). The team was pretty forgettable though, and they still are.

Off-season: Two big stories for the Reds this winter. The positive one, signing Aroldis Chapman. After the big money teams passed on him, I was worried he wouldn't be anything special, but now I'm hearing he looks great in camp, and he's only 22. This could turn out pretty well. The negative one, Edinson Volquez is out for the year. Well done, Dusty, well done.

Line-up: I honestly don't hate this line-up. Brandon Phillips is still only 28 and I'm predicting a big year, like top 10 MVP voting year, for Jay Bruce. I know that's a bit of a stretch for a guy who hit .223 and got hurt last year, but I really like Bruce. I'm not sold on everyone else though. Orlando Cabrera's 35, and Scott Rolen is 34 and physically incapable of staying healthy. Clearly, this is an offense in transition, but that doesn't help them this year.

Pitching: I don't like the Reds' pitching without Volquez. I'm not a big Johnny Cueto fan and I think Homer Bailey is probably one year away. I've never been impressed with Harang as an ace and Bronson Arroyo is still Bronson Arroyo, at least he was the last time I checked. Francisco Cordero is a solid closer, I'm just not sure they'll need him much. Does this staff have upside? Definitely. Do I think we'll see that upside this year? Probably not.

Final Thought: I'll be interested to see how much trading the Reds do if they're not in it by July. Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Ramon Hernandez and Arthur Rhodes could all be interesting to contenders if the Reds decide to have a real fire sale. The Reds could be the belle of the trading deadline ball and they could get a ton of good pieces back for these guys. I think I'd do it.

Prediction: Fifth place, although there's potential here to do better. They can't touch the Cardinals either, but they can get to second if things go well.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Here, again, we get to the fun part. This team is awful, an unmitigated disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh lost 100 games. And yet, when you look at them on paper, could I talk you into maybe 83 wins for this team? I bet I could.

Off-season: The Pirates don't even really count for the off-season, but they did actually pick up some players. Ryan Church can really contribute when he's healthy, but will most likely spend the season making Pittsburgh's DL league team the best in the league. Brendan Donnelly is interesting too. Yes, he's 38 and he looked done in 2007 and 2008, but he was lights out in 30 games for Florida last year, so who knows.

Line-up: Young, that's really the only word you need, this line-up is super young. 31 year old Akinori Iwamura sticks out like a sore thumb and has mid-season trade written all over him (if he can stay healthy and produce, both big ifs). Doumit is the key here. If he can stay healthy and hit, this young line-up may be able to come together around him. McCutchen, Milledge, LaRoche, Clement, Jones. If even two of those guys can step up with good years, this team will be able to score and compete most days.

Pitching: I don't hate the Pirates' staff as much as, say, the Nationals, but it's still not good. I like Zack Duke and I sort of like Paul Maholm, but that's pretty much it. We already talked about Brendan Donnelly, and they'll need him whenever they find out Octavio Dotel is done for the year, which could happen at any time. Pittsburgh should give up plenty of runs, but they'll get some good outings from some starters.

Final Thought: This team doesn't have a whole lot to offer contenders at the deadline. It's too bad they can't trade their very nice ballpark for some young pitching.

Prediction: Last place, and it could get ugly. The thing about a young team is you never really know what you're going to get from anyone. I could see this team jumping up and battling the likes of Cincinnati to get out of the basement, but I wouldn't bet on it.