My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL West

Two very quick comments before we get to the baseball. First, obviously, I couldn't be happier about Tiger Woods returning at the Masters. I hope he wins by 200 strokes. I hope he wins by so much that other golfers are forced to consider adultery as a strategy for improving their games.

Second, I didn't do picks for the NCAA tournament, but if you're looking for a surprise team to go to the sweet 16, maybe even the elite 8, look at Murray State. They came in with 30 wins, they beat Vanderbilt yesterday (not a fluke, they're a better team), almost beat California on the road in November and they pounded 15 seed Morgan State in ESPN's bracket busters last month. Of course, my bracket is already in shambles by now (thanks Georgetown), so you probably shouldn't listen to me. Anyway...

Arizona Diamondbacks
I own an Arizona Diamondbacks jersey. I'm not sure I could tell you why, especially since the Diamondbacks are responsible for one of the most crushing Yankees loses in my lifetime. I think I just liked the black and red color scheme. I wore it out once, it happened to be a day the Mets were playing the D'Backs, that was a mistake. It has since been retired to the far reaches of my closet.

Off-season: This was a tough division to pick, I'm not wild about any of these teams. I bring that up now because the Arizona off-season is what put them on top for me. I really like Edwin Jackson for them. Last year wasn't a fluke, he was a name brand prospect for a while and it seems like he's finally figured it out. I expect another good season from Edwin, better even because I think we won't get the late season slide again this year. They added Adam LaRoche (20+ HR, 80+ RBI, .270+ AVG every year since 2006) and Kelly Johnson. Heilman's a solid bullpen addition too. Also, don't forget they get Conor Jackson and Brandon Webb back this year after basically getting nothing from them last year (that's not entirely true, what they got from Jackson last year was actually worse than nothing).

Line-Up: There's a lot to like here. Justin Upton is a legit star. Steven Drew, Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds are all solid, and Drew may still have a little more room for improvement. You have to expect Chris Young to bounce back, at least a little, from last year's disaster (he hit .212, and unlike Conor Jackson, he doesn't have a rare illness to blame it on). If Upton doesn't have his first of what should be many huge years, they may be a bat short, but I think Upton's ready to carry this offense to big things.

Pitching: We already talked about Edwin Jackson. He and Danny Haren already make a pretty good one-two punch. If Brandon Webb is healthy by May and has the kind of year he's capable of having (Webb won 56 games in the three seasons before last year, think Chris Carpenter from last year), this rotation will get scary. I don't love Chad Qualls (3.63 ERA last year, bleh), but I do like the additions of Bobby Howry and Heilman, so I think this bullpen can figure out how to get it done.

Final Thought: To be fair, I should mention that this is probably the third year in a row I've really liked Arizona before the season started, it hasn't always worked out well. In some ways, this goes back to what I said about the Pirates, you never know exactly what you'll get from a bunch of young guys, even if they are talented. But this team isn't so young anymore, and I love their pitching, so I'm sold.

Prediction: First place, but probably a first round playoff loss. As much as I like their pitching, Haren always struggles in the second half, you don't know how Webb will hold up and while I'm predicting a stronger second half from Jackson, I'm not really basing that on anything. They'll have to play St. Louis or Philly in the first round, and I don't see that turning out well.

Colorado Rockies
Wait, I thought the Rockies moved to New Jersey in 1982 and ruined hockey with their neutral zone trap. Ohhhh, right, this is about the baseball team. Interesting fact #1, Dave Nied was the Rockies' first pick in the 1992 expansion draft. Interesting fact #2, Dave Nied won a total of 14 games for the Rockies in his career. Interesting fact #3, it took the Rockies' pitching roughly 15 years to recover.

Off-season: Not much to talk about here. Garrett Atkins is gone. Now who's gonna hit .226 with 9 home runs? Oh right, Ian Stewart (.228 last year, more home runs though). They picked up Melvin Mora and brought back Jason Giambi, so that's good. Unless this is 2010. Is this 2010? Oh, well then that probably won't help much.

Line-up: I'm not wild about this line-up, but I'll tell you what I like. Everyone on this team can hit. I don't know who can be the really big bats for this team, the 3 and 4 hitters, but they've got plenty of guys who can have solid seasons. I'm not sure how much Todd Helton has left, but he hit .325 last year, so maybe one more good year? Still, even without a good year from Helton, they should have enough.

Pitching: I'm a big fan of this team's pitching, maybe even a little more than the D'Backs. Ubaldo Jimenez is a legit ace and Cook and De La Rosa are solid. If Jeff Francis comes back strong, this team can win a lot of games with pitching. I like the bullpen too, I'm not super high on Huston Street, but he's good enough and he's got a lot of help. Expect this team to win a lot of 3-2 games.

Final Thought: For an expansion team, I actually like Denver quite a bit as a baseball town. How is it that the Marlins have 2 titles to the Rockies' 0 since they came in together and yet no one wants to go to Marlins' games but the Rockies are still doing pretty well with attendance? Good baseball town, that's how.

Prediction: Second place, and my pick for the NL wild card. Congrats Rockies, you get the honor of being pummeled by the Phillies in October!

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are exhibit A for why I don't believe in sports curses. If teams could actually be cursed, there's no way the Dodgers would have any championships since ditching Brooklyn for Los Angeles. The curse of the Bamino, the Chicago goat thing, all nonsense. Of course, maybe I'm wrong, maybe the baseball gods think having to play in front of fans who leave early because of traffic is already enough of a curse.

Off-season: Something about a divorce and the Dodgers not having money to spend kept them from doing anything notable this winter. John Lackey would have been an excellent fit here. It's fun seeing what happens when Joe Torre has to do more than just sit back and point his great team toward the field.

Line-up: I've always been a big Manny fan. I think he has a strong year and I like this line-up. Even if Torre has murdered Russell Martin's career, they still have Manny, Kemp, Either and Loney (look at Loney's stats for the last two years, they're damn near identical, he's like a machine, and a relatively productive machine too). The true effectiveness of this line-up will really depend on the size of Manny's year, but this team can hit.

Pitching: I really like the Dodgers' bullpen. Sure, Joe Torre is already well on his way to destroying Jonathan Broxton's shoulder, but until we finish that journey, this may be the best bullpen in baseball. Unfortunately, the Dodgers' starting pitching is a mess. I like Kershaw and Billingsley, but then what? This team would need an awful lot of wins from Hideki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla to win this division. How likely does that sound to you?

Final Thought: The Dodgers are sort of a wild card because they're a big money team acting like a small money team because of an ownership situation. If they start acting like a big money team again around the deadline, they can pick up some pitching and make things interesting.

Prediction: Third place. Could get better with added pitching, but they could also get a lot worse if they get injured (or if Manny stops caring for whatever reason). I imagine a lot of people picking this team to win the division, but something here just doesn't feel right.

San Francisco Giants
MLB.com has Barry Zito listed as the Giants' number two starter. Before Jonathan Sanchez and before Matt Cain. Are they just taunting Giants fans? I can't remember a situation like this in baseball, or any other sport. Everyone knew Barry Zito was done, other teams, fans, Oakland, everyone. Everyone except the Giants, who gave him a huge, ridiculous contract and have 31 wins over three completely healthy seasons to show for it. The Giants should be suspended from signing free agents for a year as punishment.

Off-season: I don't mind the DeRosa signing, somebody had to. But Aubrey Huff? Huff saw a little bit of a resurgence in Baltimore, until last year when he hit .241. Now he's moving to a pitcher's ballpark in a league with better pitching to begin with. Call me skeptical, but I don't see this ending well.

Line-up: Pablo Sandoval can hit. I mean he can rake. If I were a baseball, I would run in the other direction when I saw him coming. Unfortunately, I hate the rest of this line-up. Last year's big signing, Edgar Renteria, hit .250 last year, and I don't expect him to get any better. Remember when I said the Rockies would win a lot of 3-2 games? Well, I expect the Giants to be on the losing end of about 7 of those.

Pitching: I do like the pitching for the Giants. Aside from Zito (who actually wasn't awful last year, 11 wins, 4.03 ERA. Could have been a lot worse, like the two previous years when he posted ERAs over 5), this rotation is excellent. Lincecum and Cain are studs, and I like Jonathan Sanchez too. I'm on the Madison Bumgarner band wagon. That's four good starters, so while I don't like this team's offense at all, they certainly have the pitching to keep games close and compete.

Final Thought: I definitely want to get to a game at AT&T Park, or whatever they're calling it this week. It looks really nice and I bet it would be cool to spend a game in McCovey Cove. Plus I hear they have awesome garlic fries. You probably can't get the fries in the cove though, I'd have to choose (spoiler alert: I choose the fries).

Prediction: Fourth place, but they could do better. In a division with good pitching, every team has a shot. If the Giants get monster years from one or two guys, they could contend.

San Diego Padres
Remember when I said I could talk you into winning seasons for Pittsburgh and Washington? Yeah, well, not this time. I've looked at the San Diego roster from every angle, looking for signs of hope. All I found was Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of guys I've never heard of.

Off-season: They signed Jerry Hairston Jr. and Jon Garland. I didn't hate Garland as an idea for good teams, but I don't see how he helps the Padres. Probably the best part of the off-season for San Diego fans was not trading Adrian Gonzalez. Beware, trades can still happen in the spring and they can definitely happen in the summer.

Line-up: Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks can hit home runs. More importantly, look at the picture of Kyle Blanks on ESPN.com or MLB.com. It looks like they used a time machine to import him from the 70's. I think the Padres could really make this season fun by requiring every player to adopt a different 70's hair style.

Pitching: I've heard good things about Mat Latos, so that should be something interesting to watch. The rest of this staff is an abomination, especially compared to all the good pitching in this division. Even if Heath Bell has another solid year, which I wouldn't bet on (he's 32 this year), he'll be setting up for Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon by August 1st. Chris Young had an ERA of 5.21 in 76 innings last year. The thing about very tall pitchers is, if they lose their mechanics, it's really hard to get them back, too many moving parts. Young could bounce back this year, but he could also be done.

Final Thought: Boooooooo! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Prediction: Last place, I'd put good money on it. Every other team in this division is demonstrably better than San Diego. I see no logical way this team can win more than 65 games or get anywhere near the playoffs. Luckily, Padres fans live in San Diego, so life's still pretty good.