My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL East

My original plan was to do two baseball previews, one for each league. I started thinking about how long those would get and I decided I had a better idea. So, we're doing a division a week from now until the start of the season (one week gets two divisions, so we'll find the two least interesting divisions and lump them together, I'm looking at you AL Central). We're leading off this week with the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are the undisputed king of this division. Fans of other teams in this division may want to seriously consider ignoring this season. Sure, you can compete for the wild card, but you still have to watch your team get bashed by the Phillies 19 times. And even if you survive that, make the playoffs and win your first round series, there's just another bashing waiting for you courtesy of the Phillies. Really not a lot of upside.

Off-season: The NL champs actually got slightly better over the winter. Placido Polanco and Roy Halladay are, at least, marginal upgrades over Cliff Lee and Pedro Feliz. I don't like overstating expectations for guys, but Roy Halladay in the National League? Is it possible for a pitcher to have a negative ERA? Actually, the part of the Phillies' off-season that should scare other teams the most isn't anyone they picked up. We'll get to that in a minute.

Line-Up: Even if Werth and Ibanez both take steps back this year, which is certainly possible, especially for Ibanez, this is still a very deep line-up for the NL. Great speed at the top and great power in the middle. They're lacking power at third base, but that weakness is really cancelled out by the above average power at second base. You also have to like their depth. Mayberry and Francisco could probably start for a lot of teams, one of those guys won't even be the fourth outfielder for the Phillies.

Pitching: I don't love the back end of the Phillies' rotation, I think Jamie Moyer is just about done (of course, I would have told you that five years ago, so who knows). I also think J.A. Happ takes a step back to reality this year. On the other hand, you already know about Halladay and I think Hamels is ready for a big season. They've also got some young arms that may be ready to step in and compete for that 5th starter role. The back end of the bullpen could be a problem. Brad Lidge may be the most fragile guy in sports, but look at it this way. There's no way Lidge could be anymore of a mess than he was last year, and they still got to the world series.

Final Thought: Remember what I said about the scariest part of the Phillies' off-season? Here it is. They managed to get Roy Halladay without giving up Dominic Brown or Kyle Drabek. So, if they have an injury or just struggle a bit early, and they need another bat or another arm in July, they have better top end trading chips than almost any other team.

Prediction: First place, maybe 100 wins and another world series appearance. Three years in a row is tough, but I don't see a team in the NL that can hang with Philadelphia.

Florida Marlins
It's easy to get excited about a team like Florida. Lots of brand name young talent, and young talent suggests endless possibilities. But here's some reality. This wasn't a playoff team last year, and most people thought the Marlins overachieved in 2009. I'm not saying they can't contend, especially for the wild card, but I am wondering what happens if Josh Johnson gets hurt, or Hanley Ramirez.

Off-season: It's tough being a Marlins fan in the winter. I mean, sure, it's sunny, and warm, and you had the superbowl this year and you can still go to the beach in December. But who cares about all of that? They don't sign anyone, if they make a big trade, it's usually to give away a top player. Where's the fun in that? They did sign Josh Johnson to a long term deal, so that's another young pitcher the Yankees can't have until he's not young anymore.

Line-Up: I don't hate this line-up, but I don't love it either. If Gaby Sanchez steps up and has a big year, then they could surprise me, but if he doesn't, I can't see Jorge Cantu having another 100 RBI season and Dan Uggla hit .243 last year. I don't know why anyone would throw a strike to Hanley Ramirez. And if Hanley gets hurt...this team doesn't have a big margin for error.

Pitching: I love the Marlins' starting pitching, probably even a little more than the Phillies'. Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are both aces in my book (that's Sean's Big Book of Aces, pick it up wherever imaginary books are sold), and Anibal Sanchez has ace stuff too (if he can stay healthy, which is a lot like when I said Gilbert Arenas could have a big year if he avoided doing something crazy). The bullpen is a different story. The bullpen always suffers on low budget teams, it's the last place most teams put any real money. On the plus side, Hayden Penn and Dan Meyer were both serious prospects at one point, so they've got some potential back there, but I'm not sold on Leo Nunez. The question becomes, if this bullpen can't hold leads, how long can the starters hold up going 8 or 9 innings every start?

Final Thought: The Marlins are always interesting around the trading deadline as a dark horse candidate to pick up someone big. They always have good prospects, but they're rarely willing to take on salary. Let's say Florida is five games back in late July. Could you see Manny Ramirez spending two months in Miami and leading them on an improbable playoff run? Me too.

Prediction: Second place. I think a lot of people will pick the Marlins for the wild card, not me. I think they're a bat short and they've got too many injury risks in the rotation.

Atlanta Braves
I'm not a big Bobby Cox guy. A homeless guy from outside Fulton County Stadium could have led Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz to 5 or 6 division titles in the 90's. I'm not saying he's a bad manager, I'm just saying he's not that much better than anyone else.

Off-season: The Braves added Troy Glaus, Melky Cabrera, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. If you're thinking "I don't really see any good ideas in there", you're not alone. Put me down for June 1st in the Billy Wagner season ending surgery pool, and he might be the best addition out of those four.

Line-Up: I like Nate McLouth, and I like Yunel Escobar, and that's pretty much it. "What about Brian McCann?", you ask. Well, Brian's OPS was .834 last year. Is that really what you want from the guy who's supposed to be your best hitter? Probably not. The Braves can score some runs, but not enough.

Pitching: This is a completely different team if Tim Hudson wins 20 games. Assuming that doesn't happen, I don't mind the Braves' pitching, but it doesn't blow me away. Derek Lowe can dominate the league for two months if he gets on a roll, but he can also be awful for a month. That's not great from your ace. Jair Jurrjens pitched to a 2.60 ERA last year, but only averaged just over 6 innings a start and only won 14 games with that ERA. There's a guy who can win 20 with a strong bullpen, but the Braves don't have one. Also, Tommy Hanson will be a stud someday, but I'm not wild about him this year.

Final Thought: I'm wondering if Lowe and/or a rejuvenated Hudson become available around the trading deadline. That could be the most interesting thing the Braves do all year.

Prediction: Text book mediocre team, 81-81, third place. It's ridiculous to pick exact records in baseball, but this makes so much sense for Atlanta. It'll be like they weren't even there.

New York Mets
I really don't know what I'd do if I were a Mets fan. If Mets fans were children, and the Mets were their parents, the state would have taken the children away by now. Somebody should kill Mr. Met so he can roll over in his grave.

Off-season: Jason Bay was a solid start, and then...well...Gary Matthews Jr., Rod Barajas, Josh Fogg, etc. Kelvim Escobar is already like one step away from being out for the year. I don't know what happened to Omar Minaya, but we need to keep it away from the Bronx.

Line-up: With all the bad things I have to say about the Mets, I actually don't mind their line-up. If everyone else is still standing when Beltran gets back, this team should actually score some runs. I wish they had a lefty other than Murphy, but Beltran's switch hitting will help with that too. Mets fans should keep an eye out for Ike Davis. No one screws up prospects quite as efficiently as the Mets, but this guy might be can't miss. If Murphy struggles, and I think he will, you might see Davis sooner than later.

Pitching: Here's the thing about the Mets' pitching. I like everyone they have individually, but I hate them all on the same team. I'm not sold on Johan Santana's long term health. Every time I see John Maine pitch I really like his stuff, but he can't get through a season healthy. Oliver Perez is talented, but he also has health concerns on top of conditioning problems and general sanity issues. And the bullpen is just a mess. I don't have a problem with K-Rod, but how do they plan to get to him?

Final Thought: One of the Mets' biggest problems in the total lack of organizational depth. Even if they had been willing to pay him, they couldn't get in on the Halladay sweepstakes because they didn't really have anything Toronto wanted. They don't really have much anybody wants. So even if they can start fast and stay close, they can't add an impact player at the deadline. On the bright side, they're apparently five deep at catcher, so there's that.

Prediction: Fourth place. The Mets actually have enough talent to be better than this, but there's also a lot of risk here. If the Mets start slow and get hurt again, this could turn into a total disaster.

Washington Nationals
This is the fun part about baseball. Are the Nationals an atrocious team? Of course they are. Will they spend the season getting pounded by the rest of the NL? Hell yes. We know this because, well, this is what always happens to the Nationals, and it was happening to the Expos for years before that. Having said all that, take a look at the Nationals' roster, especially the line-up. Tell me I couldn't talk you into 85 wins for this team. I bet I could.

Off-season: Some interesting pick-ups for Washington. Jason Marquis, Pudge, Brian Bruney, Adam Kennedy, Matt Capps. The Nationals added veterans in a way that suggests they think they can contend. This team was terrible last year, so you'd have to think any set of off-season moves would have made them better, but I'm genuinely intrigued here.

Line-up: This is the part I really like about this team. Even if you assume that Elijah Dukes is too crazy to play a full season, which he almost certainly is, you still have Zimmerman, Dunn, the very underrated Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan (you heard me, Morgan hit .351 last year after he got traded to Washington). I honestly like this line-up as much as any line-up in the division other than Philadelphia. This team can score runs.

Pitching: Unfortunately, here's where disaster strikes for the Nats. They made some upgrades here, this is the first time in a while Washington has an opening day starter I've heard of, so that's a good start. Still, this team will give up a ton of runs. Fans sitting in the first few rows of the outfield seats should bring gloves, or helmets.

Final Thought: When are we going to see Stephen Strasburg? I'm still betting on opening day. Nothing draws fans like a must see starter going out there every five days. On top of that, Strasburg is, right now, the best pitcher in the Washington organization, at least from a pure stuff standpoint. I don't see a lot of upside in holding him back.

Prediction: The smart money still has Washington in last place. But you can definitely add some wins to last year's total and maybe, just maybe, they can get out of the basement (OK, probably not. Hey, can I get some Expos throwback uniforms this season? How hard is that?).