Why Are You So Bad At Your Job?

I've been thinking about this for a while and game 6 of the NBA finals was sort of a tipping point for me.  First, Tony Parker clearly got pushed when he tried to make a game winning shot at the end of regulation.  He also flopped, but still, he was fouled first.  Then, Manu Ginobili got mauled by more than one Miami player on his way to attempting a lay-up near the end of overtime.  Manu also took about 4 steps.  Neither one of those things drew a whistle.  Then Danny Green got tackled by Chris Bosh while trying to make a game tying three at the buzzer.  Van Gundy commented that he was OK with the no call but "is that a foul in the first 46 minutes of the game? Definitely!".  That's not how rules work Jeff!

Quick sidenote on the NBA finals.  I guess I'm rooting for the Spurs, but I kind of don't like either of these teams and I feel like neither outcome will save me from a summer of having to hear about Lebron all the time, so I mostly don't care who wins. 

Anyway, back to the point...why is it so hard to find competent officiating for major professional sports?  It's an honest question.  I sometimes feel like the NBA is secretly only allowed to recruit referees from prisons that are full of prisoners whose crimes somehow related to their complete inability to understand the rules of basketball.

Before we get to actual sports though, a quick honorable mention for soccer.  We'll talk about the NBA more in a little bit and when we do, just remember that flopping started in soccer.  Soccer referees throughout the world were so incompetent at discerning the difference between an actual foul and a flop that flopping became something of a soccer tradition, like 0-0 ties or standing around and not doing anything while the game is actually happening.  The influx of European players to the NBA was immediately accompanied by the advent of NBA flopping (I'm looking at you Vlade Divac).  There's no excuse for American referees to be just as useless as European soccer referees, but still, like most things, some of this is all soccer's fault.

Let's start with the NHL because, as usual, hockey is better than everything else.  I honestly can't remember the last time I walked away from a hockey game thinking that the officials had influenced the outcome of the game in any real way.  Hockey officials are the exception that prove the rule.  You could read this and say I just hate all referees, and you could be right, except you're not, because I don't hate hockey refs.

To be fair, there's definitely some built in advantage here.  Most hockey calls are relatively subjective and the NHL has taken concrete action in the rules to avoid flopping and exaggerating to get calls.  Also, most hockey commentators are Canadian, so they're generally pretty nice abooot stuff and they don't kill the refs too much even when they do miss a call. 

Hockey officials also get extra bonus points because A) if you count each skate individually, hockey players are carrying three deadly weapons at all times and B) hockey officials have to know how to skate, making them the only officials I can think of who actually have a skill. 

One more important point here.  Since, when you grow up, you learn that none of your dreams actually come true, I don't live in Canada.  Our syrupy neighbors to the north take hockey at least as seriously as we take football, and I imagine that if I were to walk into a Winnipeg sports bar in January I'd hear Canadians using their awesome accents to politely complain about all the bad calls in last night's Jets game.  So maybe it's all just a matter of perspective. 

Speaking of football, the NFL is sort of a mixed bag.  On one hand, I feel like there's been a disputable or debatable call on every football play I've ever seen.  The NFL provides a constant stream of questionable officiating, and I'm not sure I've ever fully agreed with a call in an NFL game. 

But the thing is, I'm not sure I've ever fully disagreed with a call in an NFL game either.  Officiating football is really hard.  Take a look at the basic situation for NFL refs:
-Players basically assault each other on every play and it's perfectly legal...
-except for the quarterback, who has like one square foot of area where you're allowed to touch him.  -I'm not sure if anybody in the world is 100% clear on when you're allowed to hit a receiver.
-Commentators constantly point out that there's holding on every play, which seems true enough, but you obviously can't call it on every play. 
-The rules change slightly every time someone gets another concussion.
-And there are all these complicated extra rules about eligible receivers and things happening down-field and whatnot. 

It's a lot, is what I'm saying.  Watching a group of guys try to properly officiate an NFL game is a lot like watching your dog try to work the microwave.  He's not going to get it right, but it's not really his fault either.  Plus it's football, so it's not like we're going to stop watching, so who really cares.

Now we come to baseball and this is where I start to get annoyed.  Baseball umpires have the easiest job I could possibly imagine.  First of all, most baseball rules were written 150 years ago.  People were less creative back then, so you have really simple rules like "if the ball beats the runner to first base, the runner is out" or "if a fielder catches the ball before it hits the ground, the batter is out" or "women aren't allowed to vote", etc. 

Secondly, if baseball were moving any slower, the games would be happening in reverse.  Baseball umpires are the only officials I can think of that literally never have to worry about watching more than one thing at the same time, and that's because there are four of them (six in the post-season) and there's almost never more than one thing happening at the same time.  Unlike other sports, baseball doesn't really have things happening off the ball that the officials have to worry about.

So, to recap, the job of a baseball umpire can be summed up as "watching the shiny ball and describing what happens around it".  And yet, way too many baseball umpires are just terrible at it.  I honestly feel like you could train four smart horses to umpire a baseball game and you wouldn't necessarily notice the difference in call quality.  I'm also 100% sure baseball umpires could be 100% replaced by some well placed sensors, a locator chip in the ball and a computer.  Why haven't we done this yet?

Finally, we come to the NBA.  Why is every basketball game I watch an officiating catastrophe?  I don't even know where to start.  You get two steps when you pick up your dribble.  TWO!  Can NBA referees not count to three?  I could replace NBA refs with the smartest kids in a nursery school and get better calls on traveling violations.

And the blocking/charging calls.  I know, that's not so easy, but still.  If you put me in a room where I couldn't see the game and just told me whenever there was a blocking/charging call situation and I just flipped a coin to decide which one to call, you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between my results and the results we get from NBA refs.  You know I'm right about that.

And the flopping.  So much flopping, so easy to fix.  Just stop making the calls.  Next time a defender dives to the ground like he was shot trying to draw a charge, don't call a charge, or a block.  Just let them keep playing so the offense gets two points because one of the guys on defense is rolling around on the floor like a moron. 

And then there's Lebron.  Yes, Lebron gets his own paragraph because watching NBA referees officiate Lebron is one of the most frustrating things I've ever seen in sports.  Every time Lebron goes to the basket he uses his off hand to clear out his defender (which is super effective for him, because he might be the strongest person in the history of everything).  Not only does he never get called for this, but half the time the defender gets called for a foul for viciously assaulting Lebron's left elbow with his face.  I sometimes think NBA referees all have a secret memo from David Stern which reads, in part, "Our research shows that people like watching Lebron score, so if you see anyone trying to stop him from doing that, just call them for something, we don't really care what". 

You know why people can't stop spinning conspiracy theories about the NBA using officials to manipulate games and playoff series results?  It's because people watching are just trying to think of a plausible explanation for how the officiating could be so consistently awful.  And the most frustrating part is, we never get an explanation.  Why are referees the only people in the world who never have to be accountable for their job performance?  Why don't they have to do a press conference at the end of the game like coaches and players do?  Just once, I'd like to see a reporter get to raise his hand in a press room and ask the lead official of an NBA crew "Why are you so bad at your job?" 

It's Baseball Time Again! - AL Central

Can anyone in this division challenge Detroit? The short answer is no. The long answer is noooooooooo. The only possible challenger is Chicago, but they lost their ace, their closer, their manager and they didn't lose Adam Dunn. Minnesota can always be feisty, but they don't have anything for the Tigers.  Cleveland isn't ready yet.  We'll be able to call this division by August.

Detroit Tigers

Good News: The Tigers can hit. I mean really hit. Miguel Cabrera's lowest totals in the last three seasons are .324/30HR/103RBI. That's what you get if you make one season out of the worst of Miguel's last three. Prince Fielder might be chasing 300 pounds, but he's also a lock for at least 30 homers and an on-base percentage at or above .400. No weak spots in this line-up (even the shortstop hits more like a third baseman). Oh, and that Verlander guy is pretty good too.

Bad News: The Tigers can't catch, like, at all. Cabrera will be lucky to make opening day after he fielded a grounder with his face. The second baseman is just a converted outfielder. The shortstop really should be playing third base. The only good defensive player they have on the infield is Brandon Inge, and he'll be watching Cabrera butcher his position all year. Nothing is more infuriating for a baseball fan than watching your team botch a routine defensive play, and I predict lots of TV's flying out windows in Michigan this summer.

Anything else we need to know?: Justin Verlander has gone over 200 innings in each of the last five seasons, and he went just over 250 last year. This is either a sign that he's super durable, or that his arm is about to fall off. Durable seems more likely, but Tigers fans better keep their fingers crossed just to be sure.

Prediction: First place, but you need to be able to catch a little in the post-season.

Cleveland Indians

Good News: Shin-Soo Choo (or as I like to call him, the choo choo train) is back and should get back to hitting around .300 with 20 or so homeruns, 20 or so steals and 100 or so RBI.  Travis Hafner is back too.  Well, for now, until he gets hurt again, which he will.  I love Justin Masterson (I predict he'll finish in the top 10 in Cy Young voting this year) and the pitching staff as a whole isn't terrible.

Bad News: Everyone knows god hates Cleveland.  And even if that wasn't true (which it isn't, because even if god was real, he wouldn't give a shit about sports), the Indians have a lot of nice pieces, but they're missing the one guy who can carry them.  In contrast, Detroit has three of those guys.

Anything else we need to know?: I still believe in Ubaldo Jiminez.  Last year was really bad, and I have almost no evidence to back this up, but I think Ubaldo bounces back this year to the tune of an ERA under 3.50 and at least 15 wins.

Prediction: Second place.  I just don't think the Indians have what they need to push Detroit.

Chicago White Sox

Good News: I really don't mind Chicago's starting rotation. They don't have an ace, but they have a lot of decent arms. None of Chicago's starters would make me nervous as a White Sox fan, any of them can win any given game. As a Yankee fan who suffered through AJ Burnett last season, I know there's value in having five viable starters, none of whom are great, but none of whom are terrible.

Bad News: Gordon Beckham is 25 now, and he hit .230 last year. Alex Rios hit .227 last year. Paul Konerko is coming off two of his best three seasons ever, but he's 36 and I'm not sure he can keep it up. And then there's Dunn, who hit .159 last year in 415 at-bats. Seriously. Asking where the runs are going to come from would be an understatement. Other than Konerko, this offense is just awful.

Anything else we need to know?: White Sox fans are about to find out how boring a mediocre baseball team can be without Ozzie Guillen.  I also think Guillen, while clearly insane, may be one of the few managers in baseball who can actually effect game outcomes in a positive way.  We may find out that the White Sox are worse than we thought.

Prediction: Third place, probably can't be better, might be worse.

Minnesota Twins

Good News: Mauer and Morneau appear to be healthy and good to go.  Morneau really struggled last year, but I'm willing to give him one more year to see if he can bounce back now that he's healthy.  Josh Willingham makes a nice addition here too, they needed something from the right side.

Bad News: Life is all bad news when Carl Pavano is your opening day starter.  Carl Pavano will never be forgiven.  Do you hear me?  NEVER!

Anything else we need to know?: Matt Capps is one of the least inspiring closers in the game, and will probably lose his job to Glen Perkins by June 1st.  This will, of course, most likely result in some poor contending sap (please not the Yankees, please not the Yankees) trading for him in July and then being shocked and disappointed when he's terrible.  Sometimes I wonder if MLB GM's are allowed to watch baseball games.

Prediction: Fourth place.  I'm always sort of down on Minnesota, but this year I think I'm right.

Kansas City Royals

Good News: Lots of young talent (Hosmer, Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) and Alex Gordon finally showed up last year.  Salvador Perez fell into the young talent category too, but he just had knee surgery.  Point is, I watched a lot of Royals games on my MLB package last summer, because they're interesting, and I'll probably watch a lot of Royals this summer too.

Bad News: Young doesn't necessarily mean they're good yet.  Also, something seems to have gone horribly wrong with Joakim Soria, and now I'm reading that he might need Tommy John surgery (again).  Their back-up closer is Jonathan Broxton, who was, of course, completely destroyed by Joe Torre. 

Anything else we need to know?: Luke Hochevar seems to be falling into the "never quite panned out" category.  And really, Kansas City's whole rotation is a concern.  Am I the only one who feels like Bruce Chen's been around forever?  Did the Braves call him up when he was 12 or something?

Prediction: Last place.  I want to believe.  I don't though.

It's Baseball Time Again! - AL East

Welcome to the best division in baseball.  What makes this division better than the NL East?  In a (made up) word, the AL East has the important quality of Metlessness.  Why am I so down on the Mets?  When the Mets had Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and K-Rod, they were barely a contender.  Now they have exactly one and a half of those things. 

Anyway, where was I?  Oh right, the AL East.

New York Yankees

Good News: We all know the Yankees can hit, but something about the pitching staff this season actually makes sense to me.  It's not perfect, but I really like Michael Pineda (the Yankees made a good trade, for young talent, I'm still stunned) and I'm willing to classify the bullpen in front of Rivera as "not terrible". 

Bad News: Everything about Hiroki Kuroda tells me he's a guy who will be crushed in the American League, I have no faith in him.  Also, Mariano Rivera is 42 years old.  42!  I can't find anything in his 2011 statistics to suggest a decline (K rate actually went back up, innings held steady with 2010 numbers), but seriously, he's 42.  This can't go on forever.

Anything else we need to know?: What do I have to do to convince my fellow Yankee fans that Andy Pettitte was never that great to begin with.  It seems like most fans' reaction to the news of Andy's comeback was "yeah!".  My reaction was "Why?".  And speaking of Yankees I'm not a huge fan of, Nick Swisher.  I know he puts up good numbers and always stays healthy (at least 150 games played in six straight seasons), but his at-bats are torture.

Prediction: This makes me nervous, but I think the Yankees can win the division, and the World Series.  I know, I'm a homer.  Seriously though, I think this can happen.

Boston Red Sox

Good News: Andrew Bailey is every bit as good as Jonathan Papelbon, and 100% less crazy (I think, maybe playing in Boston was what made Papelbon crazy in the first place, I guess we'll see).  Cody Ross isn't any worse than JD Drew, and comes with the added benefit of not being JD Drew.  More importantly, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis have to be better than they were last year, Youk should be an MVP candidate (although I like Robinson Cano for AL MVP this year).  Plus they get Clay Buchholz back.  Lots of good news for the Sox (and they needed some).

Bad News: The bottom of Boston's rotation is kind of a mess (I love Daniel Bard as a closer and I love Alfredo Aceves as a middle/long reliever, I'm not sold on either of them as starters) .  Also, Bobby Valentine is super-overrated.  I know he once got an absolutely mediocre Mets team to a world series, but they got trounced in that series, and it was like 13 years ago. 

Anything else we need to know?: I live in Red Sox country now, which means that when the Yankees play the Sox, I only get to watch the Sox broadcast.  Booooooooo!!!!!!!!!

Prediction: Second place, wild card, not much else. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Good News: Tampa's starting rotation is going to pitch the shit out of the ball.  David Price had more strike-outs and less walks last year than he did in 2010, when he got serious Cy Young consideration.  Wade Davis should be better, Matt Moore should be awesome and James Shields seems to have figured something out.  And if any of those guys fail, Jeff Niemann is still around as the 6th starter.

Bad News: Still not a lot of offense in Tampa.  Add that to a bullpen that would be best described as "shaky", and it sounds like a recipe for a lot of late inning losses to Boston and New York.

Anything else we need to know?: Yeah, yeah.  I know Kyle Farnsworth was very good last year, but he's still Kyle Farnsworth.  Until the end of time, I will describe any bullpen which includes Kyle Farnsworth as shaky.

Prediction: Third place, the other wild card and probably a trip to the ALCS.  I think so anyway.  I honestly can't decide between the Rays and the Angels for the second AL wild card.  Tampa's a better team, but they don't get to play Seattle and Oakland as much as the Angels do.  Screw it, I'm going with Tampa.

Baltimore Orioles

Good News: Is it just me, or do the Orioles look like they can hit?  Not a ton, but some.  Right?  It may be time for a break-out year for Matt Wieters too.  Baltimore won't win a lot, but they won't be terrible either.

Bad News: Is it just me, or can the Orioles not pitch at all?  Baltimore's whole staff is a hodge podge of guys who probably aren't ready yet (Arrieta, Britton) and guys who will probably never be ready (Hammel, Chen, Tommy Hunter).  And what's going on with Brian Matusz?  This whole thing is a catastrophe.

Anything else we need to know?: Whenever I think of Baltimore, I immediately think of The Wire.  Wallace was on House this week.  Where's Wallace at?  He was in Dillon, Texas for a while, and then he was on House.  That's where Wallace is at.

Prediction: Fourth place, should be fun to watch (and hit against).

Toronto Blue Jays

Good News: Toronto is a super nice city.  It's like if you put an American city in a dishwasher, and then added the hockey hall of fame, and cool Canadian accents to all the people.   Oh, you wanted good baseball news?  Sorry, I don't have any of that.

Seriously, Any good news?: Well, I don't hate Toronto's bullpen.  I don't love it, but I don't hate it.

Bad News: Adam Lind followed a break-out 2009 by hitting .237 and .251 the next two seasons.  Jose Bautista's steroids suspension has to happen eventually (sorry, I meant to say that I'm sure he's perfectly clean, because it's totally reasonable for a 30-year-old player to suddenly become awesome at hitting, and I know this because I learned nothing from the late 90's).

Anything else we need to know?: I kinda thought Toronto stole Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, but it's starting to seem more like St. Louis knew something that Toronto (and I) didn't know.  That was actually probably more likely all along.

Prediction: Last place.  It's not that Toronto is so awful, but they aren't good and this division is.

It's Baseball Time Again! - NL West

Is it possible that the best four teams in the National League all play in the eastern division?  After fighting my way through the NL Central, I've arrived at the NL West thinking, what fresh hell is this?  At least the Central has an excuse.  They lost Pujols, and Fielder, and failed to lose the Pirates.  The West was just as bad last year.  Time to demote them to non-BCS conference.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Good News: At 24 years old, I think Justin Upton is ready to move up a level or two, and I've got him as the NL MVP this year.  Newly acquired Trevor Cahill is also 24, and may also be ready for a big year.  Arizona doesn't have a lot of anything, but they've got a little bit of everything.

Bad News: Chris Young is still a .240 career hitter.  Add Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Hill and Miguel Montero and there are a ton of strike-outs in this line-up.  How many Justin Upton homers will be solo shots?

More Bad News: We've been down this road before.  Every time I pick the Diamondbacks they lose 90 games and make me look stupid.

Anything else we need to know?: After a fantastic 2011, some people think Ian Kennedy is ready to be the ace in Arizona for years to come.  I'm not convinced yet, but that's only because I've seen him pitch.

Prediction: First place.  And you know what? Behind Justin Upton, a solid bullpen and maybe one year of good luck with health, I'm putting Arizona in the world series.  I know what I just said about the East, but I just don't trust the Phillies in the post-season.

San Francisco Giants

Good News: Even though Jonathan Sanchez is gone, the Giants can still pitch with anybody.  Bumgarner was very good last year (3.21 ERA, almost a K per inning) and he's only 22.  Matt Cain is entering his prime now, and he was excellent last year (2.88 ERA, gave up 9 homeruns all year).  Also, Buster Posey is back, and hopefully he won't be blocking the plate this year.

Bad News: Even with Posey, the Giants still can't hit.  I'm still not sure what to make of Pablo Sandoval, and Brandon Belt looked overmatched last season when he got called up.  The guy they have penciled in at shortstop hit .204 in almost 200 at-bats last year.  I know Melky Cabrera hit .305 last season, but he's still Melky Cabrera.

Anything else we need to know?: My level of concern about Tim Lincecum remains at DEFCON 3.  I know last year was better than 2010, but his strike-out rate keeps dropping and with his size and his motion, I just keep thinking he can't keep it up forever.

Prediction: Second place, no post-season for the Giants.  I think they'll be a little better this year, but so will Arizona.

Colorado Rockies

Good News: Troy Tulowitzki can be an MVP candidate if he stays healthy (big IF), and so can Carlos Gonzalez.  Gonzalez regressed last year, but he was still pretty good (26HR, 20SB, .295 Avg) and he's only 26.  High end talent like that can keep Colorado competitive all year.

Bad News: The pitching staff seems to have gotten away from the Rockies a bit.  I like Jhoulys Chacin, but he didn't exactly pitch the lights out last year, and now he's supposed to be their number one guy?  I like Tyler Chatwood too, but he may not even make the rotation this year. Drew Pomeranz is probably a year or two away as well.  You can see hope down the road for the Rockies, but this year could get ugly.

Anything else we need to know?: Jason Giambi and Todd Helton sit together during games and reminisce about the dead ball era and what it was like facing Walter Johnson.

Prediction: Third place.  Could they make a run?  Sure.  Will they? I don't think so.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Good News: They still have Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  Kemp was all kinds of studly last year and probably should have been the MVP.  Kershaw was even better, going 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA on a team that was barely above .500.

Bad News: What's up with the rest of these guys?  Andre Either's power numbers of fallen off a cliff since 2009, but his strikeouts have stayed remarkably consistent.  Not a good combo.  I'm not sure Dee Gordon is ready for the big leagues yet.  James Loney's nearly robotic statistical consistency is nice, but it would be nicer if he was, ya know, better.

Anything else we need to know?: Anyone who cares about baseball in Los Angeles will be watching the Angels, and anyone who still cares about baseball in Brooklyn will be killing themselves after watching a Mets game.

Prediction: Fourth place.  It's hard to see this going any other way.  The Dodgers look clearly better than San Diego, but clearly worse than everyone else.

San Diego Padres

Good News: I guess the Padres can pitch a little.  Cory Luebke was solid as a starter last year, and ESPN describes Tim Stauffer as a "middle-of-the-rotation" force.  That's not awesome, but as a Yankee fan, I certainly wish we a had a couple of those last year.  Also, Huston Street should fill most of the Heath Bell void, until he gets hurt, which he will.

Bad News: So much bad news, although most of it doesn't qualify as news since everybody already knows the Padres are terrible.  But with Anthony Rizzo already somewhere else and Casey Kelly not exactly killing it in the minors, that Adrian Gonzalez trade looks like the Padres got robbed.

Anything else we need to know?: Did you know that it's still awesome to live in San Diego no matter how bad your baseball team is?  Well, Padres fans know that.

Prediction: Last place, don't get cute.  No surprises here.

It's Baseball Time Again! - NL Central

What's going on in the NL Central?  These teams all look terrible.  This stupid internet says the Cardinals won the World Series last year, but that can't be right.  I tried the internet at work, just to be sure, and all the internets agree, the defending champs live in St. Louis.  That'll teach me to stop paying attention once the Yankees lose.

St. Louis Cardinals

Bad News:  Bad news goes first for St. Louis.  Remember when the Cardinals had the best hitter in baseball for ten years?  Well, not anymore.  And remember last year when Pujols struggled a little, but Lance Berkman picked up most of the slack.  Well, Lance is 36 and there is NO WAY he hits .300 again.  But don't worry fans, they've replaced Pujols with Carlos Beltran, and Mets fans know Carlos can carry any team to a championship.  Wait, are you saying Mets fans don't know that?

Good News: Adam Wainwright is back.  Wainwright appears to be good to go for opening day.  And with St. Louis not scoring any runs, they're going to need him.  Also, the Cards added serviceable veteran lefty J.C. Romero to what already was a pretty solid bullpen. 

Anything else we need to know?: Shelby Miller is still only 21 years old, but I feel like he's been St. Louis' top prospect since I was playing little league.  Doesn't sound like we'll be seeing him this year either, but you never know with Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook at the bottom of the rotation. 

Prediction: Lots of 2-1 games.  But when you're playing lots of 2-1 games against this division, you're winning most of them and winning the division.  No repeat though.

Cincinnati Reds

Good News: The Reds dealt 28 year old, often injured Edinson Volquez for 24-year-old future stud Mat Latos.  Add that to Homer Bailey, who should start breaking out this year, and Ryan Madson, who is not demonstrably worse than Jonathan Papelbon and never should have been allowed to leave Philly, and the Reds can really pitch.  Also, Scott Rolen can tell all the young kids stories about his rookie season with the world champion 1976 Reds. 

Bad News: I'm not convinced the Reds can hit.  After hitting .281 in 2010 (promising improvement), Jay Bruce regressed to .256 in 2011.  The power keeps coming, but the average keeps disappointing.  Brandon Phillips is 30 now and probably is what he is (and probably isn't hitting .300 again).  Drew Stubbs is another guy who can't hit for average.  Joey Votto is a stud, the rest of this line-up has holes.  Lots of solo home runs in Cincy this season.

Anything else we need to know?: Chris Heisey hit 18 home runs in 279 at-bats last year, which translates to damn near 40 if he plays a full season.  Unfortunately, the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick for some reason.  I guess anytime you can sign a guy who is 33 years old, hit .237 last year and wasn't ever that good to begin with to clog up an outfield spot a younger guy with potential could be filling, you have to do it.

Prediction: With an extra wild card and plenty of games against Pittsburgh, Houston and the Cubs, as much as I hate this division, I think they get two playoff teams.  I hope the Reds enjoy being crushed by whoever they get in the first round of the playoffs.

Milwaukee Brewers

Good News: Ryan Braun doesn't have to miss 50 games.  Bully for Brewers fans.  Hey listen, if you're going to have an appeal process, then everybody has to live with the results.  Ryan Braun's appeal was granted, so he's not a cheater.  I guess that's easy for me to say, since I really don't give a crap about performance enhancers.  I like enhanced performances.

Bad News: While Ryan Braun can play all 162 games for the Brewers this season, Prince Fielder will be playing 0 games for the Brewers, because he doesn't play there anymore.  Corey Hart may not be ready for opening day and no, Aramis Ramirez does not count as a replacement for Fielder. 

Anything else we need to know?: Zack Greinke struck out 201 batters in 171.2 innings last season, and at 28 years old, he should be ready for a huge season.  Also, we should finally see Matt Gamel get serious playing time at first base.  Word is he can hit, but he can't catch.  Guess what?  Prince Fielder can't catch either.

Prediction: The Brewers can contend for a wild card, but I don't think they get one.  Braun can't carry this offense by himself all year.

Chicago Cubs

Good News: Theo Epstein showed up in Chicago this winter and will, I assume, make the Cubs better...someday.  It takes a few years to clean up a mess like this.  Pencil the Cubs in for the post-season around 2016.

Bad News: Is it bad news that picking the Cubs to finish 4th feels like wishful thinking?  Is is bad news that the Cubs don't seem to be able to give away Alfonso Soriano?  Is it bad news that the Cubs entire rotation is made up of cast-offs from other organizations?  All of those things are probably bad news, but if you want the really bad news about the Cubs, just take a minute to look at their roster.  It ain't pretty.

Anything else we need to know?: Starlin Castro is still a few years from his prime, Cubs fans can only hope they'll put a team around him by the time he gets there.

Predictions: Fourth place, if the Cubs are lucky.  What?  Are you saying the Cubs have some kind of well-documented, century-long history of terrible luck?  Hmmmm.  Alright, put it this way.  If the Cubs finish any better than 4th this season, I declare the curse officially over.  Baby steps.

Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros

Ugh...picking between the Pirates and the Astros is like deciding if you want to die by drowning or by being shot in the face.  One of them may sound more pleasant at first, but they both suck and you end up dead either way.

Good News: These two teams play each other a bunch of times so somebody has to win those games, right?  Seriously, looking at these two rosters, the only positive I could come up with is for the Pirates.  They have a few talented young guys (Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata).  Maybe one of them will even be good enough to get traded to the Yankees mid-season for two crappy prospects.

Bad News: AJ Burnett already successfully executed his plan of bunting stuff into his own face until he hit something and got out of starting the season with the Pirates.  When I looked at the Astros roster, I wondered for a minute if Houston was filling out their roster with fake names, the way video games sometimes do.  At least Pittsburgh should be fun to watch, Houston just looks like a mess.

Predictions: Very bad things, son.  Pittsburgh should probably be a little better than Houston.  A little.