Wednesday, March 21, 2012

It's Baseball Time Again! - NL West

Is it possible that the best four teams in the National League all play in the eastern division?  After fighting my way through the NL Central, I've arrived at the NL West thinking, what fresh hell is this?  At least the Central has an excuse.  They lost Pujols, and Fielder, and failed to lose the Pirates.  The West was just as bad last year.  Time to demote them to non-BCS conference.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Good News: At 24 years old, I think Justin Upton is ready to move up a level or two, and I've got him as the NL MVP this year.  Newly acquired Trevor Cahill is also 24, and may also be ready for a big year.  Arizona doesn't have a lot of anything, but they've got a little bit of everything.

Bad News: Chris Young is still a .240 career hitter.  Add Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Hill and Miguel Montero and there are a ton of strike-outs in this line-up.  How many Justin Upton homers will be solo shots?

More Bad News: We've been down this road before.  Every time I pick the Diamondbacks they lose 90 games and make me look stupid.

Anything else we need to know?: After a fantastic 2011, some people think Ian Kennedy is ready to be the ace in Arizona for years to come.  I'm not convinced yet, but that's only because I've seen him pitch.

Prediction: First place.  And you know what? Behind Justin Upton, a solid bullpen and maybe one year of good luck with health, I'm putting Arizona in the world series.  I know what I just said about the East, but I just don't trust the Phillies in the post-season.

San Francisco Giants

Good News: Even though Jonathan Sanchez is gone, the Giants can still pitch with anybody.  Bumgarner was very good last year (3.21 ERA, almost a K per inning) and he's only 22.  Matt Cain is entering his prime now, and he was excellent last year (2.88 ERA, gave up 9 homeruns all year).  Also, Buster Posey is back, and hopefully he won't be blocking the plate this year.

Bad News: Even with Posey, the Giants still can't hit.  I'm still not sure what to make of Pablo Sandoval, and Brandon Belt looked overmatched last season when he got called up.  The guy they have penciled in at shortstop hit .204 in almost 200 at-bats last year.  I know Melky Cabrera hit .305 last season, but he's still Melky Cabrera.

Anything else we need to know?: My level of concern about Tim Lincecum remains at DEFCON 3.  I know last year was better than 2010, but his strike-out rate keeps dropping and with his size and his motion, I just keep thinking he can't keep it up forever.

Prediction: Second place, no post-season for the Giants.  I think they'll be a little better this year, but so will Arizona.

Colorado Rockies

Good News: Troy Tulowitzki can be an MVP candidate if he stays healthy (big IF), and so can Carlos Gonzalez.  Gonzalez regressed last year, but he was still pretty good (26HR, 20SB, .295 Avg) and he's only 26.  High end talent like that can keep Colorado competitive all year.

Bad News: The pitching staff seems to have gotten away from the Rockies a bit.  I like Jhoulys Chacin, but he didn't exactly pitch the lights out last year, and now he's supposed to be their number one guy?  I like Tyler Chatwood too, but he may not even make the rotation this year. Drew Pomeranz is probably a year or two away as well.  You can see hope down the road for the Rockies, but this year could get ugly.

Anything else we need to know?: Jason Giambi and Todd Helton sit together during games and reminisce about the dead ball era and what it was like facing Walter Johnson.

Prediction: Third place.  Could they make a run?  Sure.  Will they? I don't think so.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Good News: They still have Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  Kemp was all kinds of studly last year and probably should have been the MVP.  Kershaw was even better, going 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA on a team that was barely above .500.

Bad News: What's up with the rest of these guys?  Andre Either's power numbers of fallen off a cliff since 2009, but his strikeouts have stayed remarkably consistent.  Not a good combo.  I'm not sure Dee Gordon is ready for the big leagues yet.  James Loney's nearly robotic statistical consistency is nice, but it would be nicer if he was, ya know, better.

Anything else we need to know?: Anyone who cares about baseball in Los Angeles will be watching the Angels, and anyone who still cares about baseball in Brooklyn will be killing themselves after watching a Mets game.

Prediction: Fourth place.  It's hard to see this going any other way.  The Dodgers look clearly better than San Diego, but clearly worse than everyone else.

San Diego Padres

Good News: I guess the Padres can pitch a little.  Cory Luebke was solid as a starter last year, and ESPN describes Tim Stauffer as a "middle-of-the-rotation" force.  That's not awesome, but as a Yankee fan, I certainly wish we a had a couple of those last year.  Also, Huston Street should fill most of the Heath Bell void, until he gets hurt, which he will.

Bad News: So much bad news, although most of it doesn't qualify as news since everybody already knows the Padres are terrible.  But with Anthony Rizzo already somewhere else and Casey Kelly not exactly killing it in the minors, that Adrian Gonzalez trade looks like the Padres got robbed.

Anything else we need to know?: Did you know that it's still awesome to live in San Diego no matter how bad your baseball team is?  Well, Padres fans know that.

Prediction: Last place, don't get cute.  No surprises here.

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