Monday, March 12, 2012

It's Baseball Time Again! - NL East

Remember when, sometimes, I used to write stuff about sports? I don't remember that either, but my blog's archives swear it happened. Let's see if I can get through all six divisions without comparing a position battle to Mitt Romney vs. Rick Santorum.

There's something reassuring about the beginning of baseball season. Baseball isn't the best sport to watch on TV, or the best fantasy sport (football). It isn't the most fun sport to watch in person (hockey). It isn't the sport that gives you the most "holy crap! I can't believe he just did that!" moments (basketball). But there is something about baseball. It's like an old friend that comes back every spring, no matter what. It's comforting.

Let's start with the NL East, because, honestly, I can't wait any longer to make fun of the Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies

Good News: For starters, those Halladay, Lee and Hamels fellas are still pretty good. Off-season addition Jonathan Papelbon gives them a closer with a proven post-season track record, as opposed to the unproven but talented Ryan Madson. Papelbon is still hit or miss sometimes, but nobody is more hit or miss than Brad Lidge was, so the Phillies are ready for that. Phillies fans won't mind a full season of Hunter Pence, either. And Hunter won't mind a full season of Citizens Bank Park.

Bad News: This team isn't any worse than they were last year, but they aren't really that much better either, and how did last year turn out? Also, Chase Utley's brain may be 33, but the rest of his body appears to be in its mid to late 60's.

Anything else we need to know?: For those Phillies fans who have been patiently waiting for Domonic Brown, it appears you may have to keep waiting. He's 24 now. I'm starting to worry.

Prediction: The Phillies are tough for me. They're good enough to win the division, and they have the pitching to win in the post-season, and yet...for a championship or bust team, I think this year turns out to be another bust.

Washington Nationals

Good News: Stephen Strasburg is back, and the Nationals were the clear winners of Oakland's pitching fire sale (if you offered me Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey for Gio Gonzalez, I wouldn't take it). Jayson Werth can't be any worse than he was last year (right?). Brad Lidge (23K's in 19.1 innings after coming back from injury last year) joins Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen in what should be a serviceable bullpen, even after Lidge's shoulder explodes in mid-May.

Bad News: They're still the Nationals. There are only two kinds of people who do baseball predictions, people who pick the Nationals to win stuff, and people who get things right.

Anything else we need to know?: Bryce Harper is on the way. He should be crushing 800 foot homeruns in Washington by the end of the summer. When he gets there, we'll find out if Jayson Werth can still play centerfield, I suspect he can't. But who cares...Bryce Harper is on the way!

Prediction: The Nationals will take one of the NL wild cards, partially because they're pretty good, and partially because they get to play the Mets a bunch of times. In other news, reports from hell say the weather is getting "pretty chilly down here".

Miami Marlins

Good News: Opening day - "It's a beautiful April day here in sunny Miami, and Marlins fans are excited for what should be the team's best season in years. Miami has young power throughout its line-up, world class speed at the top of the order and a solid pitching staff anchored by the returning Josh Johnson and free agent pick-ups Mark Buehrle and veteran closer Heath Bell. Expect the Marlins to contend all the way through September this year folks!"

Bad News: Sometime around game 70 or 80 - "More bad news today for the Marlins, folks. Jose Reyes and his pulled hamstring will join Heath Bell and Josh Johnson on the DL. Bell is still reportedly at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound again, and no timetable has been set for Johnson. Reyes' absence only exacerbates the on-going Hanley Ramirez saga, as Hanley and the team still haven't talked since he demanded a trade and walked out on the team 10 days ago. In other news, still no sign of Carlos Zambrano, who hasn't been seen since he reportedly went to visit Key West on an off day in May, though he did recently send a cryptic text message to manager Ozzie Guillen which simply read 'TEQUILA!', so we know Carlos is alive."

Anything else we need to know?: Maybe changing his name to Giancarlo will result in less strike-outs for Mike "Giancarlo" Stanton, but I don't think that's actually how it works.

Prediction: As you may have guessed from my bad news synopsis, I don't see this season going particularly well for Miami, but they are talented and can probably finish around .500.

Atlanta Braves

Good News: Venters and Kimbrel potentially give Atlanta a lock-down bullpen, so they won't lose too many games when they're leading after 7. Also, I'm always sort of lukewarm on Atlanta, and I'm usually wrong.

Bad News: Atlanta's rotation worries me. I'm not sold on a May 1st return date for Tim Hudson. I'm concerned about a 25 year old future ace who already missed a chunk of one season with shoulder tendonitis (Tommy Hanson). I'm not convinced Brandon Beachy can continue striking out almost 11 batters per nine innings. I don't understand why Jair Jurrjens can't go more than six innings, or stay healthy. All of these things worry me.

Anything else we need to know?: All bets are off if Jason Heyward has the season in 2012 that we all expected in 2011. Heyward is the kind of guy who can carry an offense all by himself if he gets right and gets going. You just have to ask yourself if he's ready to do that yet.

Prediction: I say not yet for Heyward, and 4th place for Atlanta, but all four of these teams can be pretty good, and a wild card for Atlanta wouldn't shock me.

New York Mets

Good News: See, the thing about the Mets is...because, ya know...and it's just...I mean...so...yeah.

Bad News: I don't even know where to start. The fruits of what was possibly the worst minor league system in baseball over the last decade are now starting for the big league club. The Mets' most exciting prospect of the last few years (Jenrry Mejia) is coming off Tommy John surgery and probably won't pitch anywhere until August. Jason Bay is still missing in action. Johan Santana is back, and throwing in the mid-80's. I could go on.

Seriously, any good news?: Well, Mets fans will enjoy Zack Wheeler eventually, but not this year, and probably not next year either. But you know what, Mets fans? You still live in New York, which is still better than rooting for a good team and living somewhere else.

Anything else we need to know?: One of the first things I ever wrote about baseball was how I would not want to be the team paying Johan Santana big money for the second half of his career. Two years later, that remains possibly the most true thing I've ever written.

Prediction: Any story this year about the Mets winning the NL East will have to be immediately proceeded by the story about the team planes of the other four teams in this division being involved in a disastrous mid-air collision.

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