The Curious Case of the Mets

In general, I don't believe in anything, or I at least try not to believe in anything. I try to know things, knowledge being belief in something that is true. We can't always know what is true, but we can try to find out.

So, I don't believe in god, or gods, or superstition. I don't believe in fate or destiny. I don't believe in ghosts or spirits. I know sometimes people can get lucky, but I don't believe a person, or a group, or a team can be consistently lucky or unlucky. I certainly don't believe in curses. And yet, there's the curious case of the New York Mets.

As a native New Yorker, the Mets were always somewhere on my TV. I would watch them whenever the Yankees were off, or rained out, or playing at a different time, or playing Baltimore for the 15th time and I just couldn't stand it anymore. I'm happy to root for the Mets as long as they aren't playing the Yankees (which, incidentally, should happen never unless they meet in the World Series; I hate interleague play SO MUCH).

I worry about the Mets. In the 24+ seasons since the 1986 World Series victory, here are some numbers on the B team in the nation's biggest market (which, of course, rightfully means they should be the best team in the National League):

11 losing seasons (including 103 losses in 1993, which put them 5 games behind the expansion Marlins)
11 different managers
4 playoff appearances
1 World Series appearance

And the playoff appearances...oh, the playoff appearances, almost tailor-made to slowly drive fans into insanity.

1988: The Mets go up 2-1 in the NLCS before losing two home games, only to win game six in Los Angeles and then ultimately get shut down by Orel Hershiser in a game 7 that was over after two innings.

1999: After falling behind Atlanta 3-0, the Mets fight back to make it a series with two one-run victories, including a 15-inning game 5 win in which they were down one going into the bottom of the 15th. Then, they lost game 6 by the score of 10-9 in extra innings after overcoming a 5-run first inning deficit.

2000: The Mets finally get all the way back to the World Series, only to have their pants pulled down on national television by a cross-town rival that simply had them outgunned. The Yankees never had a doubt, the Mets never had a chance.

2006: Game 7 against the spectacularly mediocre Cardinals. Down two, bases loaded, two outs. Carlos Beltran, easily the Mets' best player that season, watches somberly as strike three sails right on by, almost like he was thinking "OK, I've got him right where I want him, when he tries to throw strike four by me, I'm gonna hit it out of the park!".

What's wrong with the Mets? Why aren't they the best team in the National League, the one that New York deserves? Some people go right to ownership. As far as I'm concerned, the owner's only job is to provide money, and the Mets have been top 10 in payroll every year since 1986, including 2003 when they were second and still managed to lose 95 games. Say what you want about the Mets' ownership, they put up the cash.

Poor management then? Maybe, Omar Minaya made a lot of mistakes. Letting Willie Randolph, the best manager the team had since Davey Johnson (you heard me!), go in 2008 when the team was just one game under .500 was a huge blunder. But then, so was letting Davey Johnson, the most successful manager in Met history, go in 1990 when the team was 2 games under .500 just 42 games in. Omar was scouting for the Texas Rangers when that happened.

Omar signed a ton of bad contracts too. Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez were disasters. He overpaid for Carlos Beltran by at least 20 million dollars, and don't even get me started on Jason Bay. But Omar wasn't there for Bobby Bonilla, or Vince Coleman. He wasn't even the one who signed Kaz Matsui.

The Mets failed miserably, over and over again, to properly develop young talent under Omar Minaya. Lastings Milledge never panned out, and Fernando Martinez already looks pretty much ruined. Mike Pelfrey could have been an ace, but now it looks like he's rounding into a guy who can be the number 3 starter on a championship team.

But failure to properly handle prospects goes back 20 years for this franchise. Remember Gregg Jefferies? A constant disappointment with the Mets who left, spent a year toiling in Kansas City and then hit .342 and .325 in back to back years in St. Louis. I could fill this space just with names of talented guys who never panned out or good young players the Mets traded away (like Heath Bell, Scott Kazmir, Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, Bill Pulsipher, Milledge again just for fun, etc, etc, etc).

I've recently started to think the Mets' training staff may be to blame. How do you constantly have this many injuries to key guys? I understand Pedro Martinez was an injury risk when they signed him, everyone knew they wouldn't really get four full years from Pedro. Carlos Beltran seems to be falling apart, but maybe he's just getting older. Jason Bay played in at least 145 games every year since 2005, until last year. But maybe he's just getting older too. Maybe Jose Reyes is just injury prone. Maybe Johan Santana was always heading toward shoulder surgery. Maybe David Wright's recent back problem was just a freak thing. Maybe...maybe...maybe, but why are all these things happening to the same team?

I look at the Mets this year and I can't decide if they should go for the wild card or trade some key guys and start rebuilding. Currently, the Mets are two games over .500 and 7.5 games back of Atlanta in the wild card standings, and that's with, arguably, three of their best five players (Wright, Davis and Santana) on the DL, and a fourth one (Reyes) probably heading in that direction. If the Mets got all of those guys back by August 1st, and maybe added another pitcher (I'd love to see them add a #2 starter if they could find one), they could be a serious wild card contender.

On the other hand, this is probably their last chance to get something for Beltran, and they may have already missed the boat on getting something for Reyes while he was healthy. If they dealt Beltran, Reyes (if the injury isn't serious) and K-Rod, they could really stock a farm system that's currently running on empty. Additionally, the Mets (or Braves, or Diamondbacks, or Pirates or anyone else in the NL) have almost no shot at getting past the pitching in Philadelphia and San Francisco, so is it worth it for the Mets or anyone else to push knowing a playoff berth will ultimately end badly?

I think so. A healthy Met team, even with automatic outs at catcher and second base, can out-hit Philadelphia and San Francisco. If they were to add a legitimate #2 starter, that guy could join a healthy and fresh Santana, a solid #3 in Pelfrey and the emerging Dillon Gee or Jonathon Niese in a pretty formidable playoff rotation. You can't really count on the Mets' bullpen, but you can't really count on anyone's bullpen.

I said at the beginning of the season the Mets had "nobody believed in us" written all over them. That's even more true now with all the injuries. It's amazing what a competent manager can do with some talented players. I think the Mets should go for it, keep all the key guys and make one or two additions (namely, a starting pitcher. I've decided Chad Billingsley should be available. I'd suggest adding a second baseman, but I honestly can't think of one that might be available and worth anything).

If they can just get to the post-season, anything can happen, unless they're cursed. But even if they are cursed, they should still go for it. A cursed team can't win the World Series, but rebuilding won't help either, so they might as well have some fun before dumping another season into the black hole of losing. And I'll be rooting for them, because if they get to the World Series, I can't imagine they'll find the Yankees there. Just the thought of needing wins from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in October makes me a little queasy.

Inception

I recently had a very odd dream in which I was eating lunch in my college cafeteria (the school I went to, not the one at which I currently work) with various childhood friends who I haven't seen (except on Facebook, if that counts as "seeing") in anywhere between 13 and 18 years. I awoke from this dream at work, at approximately 3PM on a Friday. It took me a couple of minutes to realize that:
A) I don't sleep at work
B) the friend with whom I was excitedly sharing the details of the dream is no longer a co-worker and
C) my office isn't located in my grandparents' house.

These simultaneous realizations jarred me into the real world, where I found myself slowly waking up on a Sunday morning, comfortably tucked into my bed in my nicely air conditioned apartment. I had experienced the rare dream within a dream. I immediately decided that I would have to stop watching Inception whenever it appeared on HBO, as it was clearly starting to infect parts of my brain.

The rest of my day consisted of breakfast, or lunch, whatever you'd call it when you're eating right after you woke up, but it's happening at 1PM because you've been afflicted with the sleeping patterns of a small, nocturnal mammal. Then I read a book (seriously, I finished reading a book! The first book I actually sat down and read since I read Stephen Hawking's A Brief History of Time sometime in 2004 or 2005). Then, some TV sports consisting of a Yankees game (thank you MLB extra innings) and NASCAR (sports pickins are slim in the summertime).

Then, Fox News Sunday. The first segment of the show was an interview with Republican presidential candidate and noted crazy person Michele Bachmann. The second segment was a brief interview, mostly about the budget negotiations, with Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, who proves his fiscal conservative bona fides by not spending money on superfluous letters for his name. As expected, we spent most of their collective half hour in Fantasyland (specifics in a minute).

How did it come to this? I imagine, at some point in our history, politicians and other public leaders spent their time saying things that were true, or that they at least believed to be true. Then, as politics became a career rather than a temporary state of public service, there was the natural migration toward pandering to voters, but that stopped working after a while. People are stupid and they don't even know what they believe half the time, and sometimes they start to believe that they don't like being pandered to. It's all such a hassle.

But then, somebody had an idea. I'm picturing Dick Morris and Karl Rove in a dimly lit laboratory somewhere in Washington D.C. The idea? Inception. If you haven't seen the movie, inception is a pretty simple concept. You plant an idea in a person's mind in a way that makes them think they had the idea on their own, thereby causing them to act on the idea as they would if it really were their own.

Here's how it works:
Step 1: Introduce a relatively simple, but emotionally charged talking point into the public debate and/or news cycle. You can do this yourself, but it's even better if you can use your favorite shill "commentator" in the media ("remember, if we want this to work, we have to use words Sean Hannity would use, nothing over one and a half syllables").

Step 2: Wait to see if the idea takes hold. It's important to use an idea that people would want to believe, or an idea that would give them a "logical" excuse to feel a way they already feel for irrational reasons. Example: Gay marriage destroys families.

Sidenote: If the idea doesn't properly take hold, just stop saying it. And when you run for President, tell everyone you never said it, even as news people show you video of you saying it.

Step 3: Once the idea takes hold, do some polling. If you've done your job correctly, the "American people" will parrot your idea back to you in the form of poll answers. The media will then do your bidding and report these poll answers as "news". For example, this just in from CNN..."like, zOMG you guys! A majority of the American people don't want to raise the debt ceiling, and this is important, even though most of them have no idea what that means." OK, maybe that isn't "just in" from CNN, but it sounds like a headline they'd use.

So then, let's say you're Michele Bachmann, and you go on some Sunday show and the sad looking man in the suit asks you about same sex marriage. You can proudly say you don't agree with it. But not because you're a bigot. You aren't a bigot, you're a good person, just look at all your foster children. No, you have to be against gay marriage, because you're just standing up for the American people, who are overwhelmingly in favor of protecting the family, which we all know is constantly under threat of gay destruction (sidenote #2: I have a number of homosexual or bisexual friends, I keep forgetting to ask them why they hate families so much, I should write that down so I remember).

Or, let's say you're Jon Kyl. You have to defend the tax cuts demanded by your corporate overlords and the other various super-rich people who own you (and your entire party, and the other party too, and really the whole country...sigh). Well, that sounds pretty indefensible. But, luckily, your party has been seeding the public debate for 30 years with ideas like "tax cuts create jobs" and "tax cuts actually increase revenue through the magic power of tax cuts" and "tax cuts equal freedom". That last one is especially insidious because it equates something tangible and easily given (tax cuts) with something intangible and impossible to give, something that must occur naturally or be earned (freedom).

So then, Jon Kyl can go on Fox News Sunday and suggest the President wants to put an anchor around the neck of the economy with his evil plan to slightly raise the top marginal tax rate. It's not fair to punish success by making people pay taxes. Seriously you guys!!! It's, like, so unfair!

I know I'm picking on Republicans again, but that's because they're so much better at this. It's like picking on Barry Bonds for (allegedly) using steroids. I'm sure plenty of other guys you never heard of (allegedly) used steroids, but you've still never heard of them, so who cares?

Anyway, I think I have some possible solutions to this problem:
1) We could all try being a little smarter and better informed (just kidding).
2) We could hook elected officials and people running for office up to lie detectors whenever they're speaking publicly (I actually really like this one, it would quickly turn any debate, speech or TV appearance into a game show we all watch to see if the lie detector goes off).
3) We could stop letting corporations and rich people buy politicians legally through campaign contributions (once again, just kidding, the Supreme Court is always right and legalizing bribery was an awesome idea).
4) We could start electing bears to run the country for a while. What they would lack in logic, reason and writing skills, they would make up for in mauling our enemies and stealing honey from other countries. What's that? You say a bear can't be President? Well sir, I say that makes you a bear racist.

I seem to have lost my train of thought. Where was I going with this? Oh yeah, I was going back to where I always go. I wish politicians would stop telling me what the American people want. First of all, I'm an American person, and I almost never want whatever it is they're telling me I want. Secondly, I don't care what the other American people want, because, for many reasons, including the one I just theorized about, what they want is usually stupid.

I'm tired of asking for a show of hands whenever we have a problem. Michele Bachmann was making the point yesterday that the government has a responsibility to protect the American people from same sex marriage, because a majority of them don't want it. No moron! The government has a responsibility to protect LGBT people from the dumbass majority trying to withhold rights from them for no good reason. Which is why, as always, New York is the best state ever.

The Darkness

One of my favorite exchanges from the best TV show ever:

President Bartlet: "The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral. Returning violence with violence only multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars."
Leo: "Dr. King"
President Bartlet: "I'm part of that darkness now Leo. When did that happen?"
Leo: "Dr. King wasn't wrong, he just didn't have your job."

So, I don't know if you heard, but apparently, Navy Seals shot Osama Bin Laden in the face last Sunday (awesome work, by the way. If I ever open a restaurant, military people eat free, all the time, forever and ever). In a related story, Donald Trump had a very negative reaction when the world stopped paying attention to him for five minutes, causing him to shoot Meatloaf in the face (I kid Mr. Loaf. I only half kid Mr. Trump, who is nothing more than an inherited billionaire attention whore. He's like an old man version of Paris Hilton).

I admit to having a wide range of reactions to the Bin Laden news. I think I started at "yeah America!". Not just because our military finally got him, but because after eight years of Presidential, let's say, unremarkability, we all got together and said "you know what we should try, electing someone smart". Two and half years later, BANG! Right in the face! Good electing by us.

I've heard multiple Bush administration people and lots of Republicans trying to give the former President some credit for this. I saw Michelle Malkin on Fox literally making the case that the Obama administration finally getting Bin Laden vindicates and justifies everything the Bush administration ever did in the areas of foreign policy and national security.

Come on guys. This happened two and half years into the Obama presidency, this is 100% his thing. I don't understand what's wrong with people sometimes. These are the same people who have been telling me it's Obama's economy now since the summer of 2009. I, by the way, would like to suggest that this is still Ronald Reagan's economy. He's the patron saint of deregulation and never ending tax cuts.

Anyway, then I went to "singing in the streets doesn't really seem like the appropriate reaction to this". I started thinking we're supposed to be the good guys in this fight, and the good guys don't usually do the killing, and they certainly don't usually do the singing about it. Batman doesn't kill the bad guys, he just leaves them tied up for Commissioner Gordon to deal with. This lasted about ten minutes, then I realized this isn't a superhero movie and sometimes you have to kill the bad guys because it's the only way to deal with them.

And yes, while I almost always reject President Bush's black and white, with us or against us view of the world, there are a few people who are just bad guys, and there isn't another side of the story (I feel like all of my Rashard Mendenhall fueled fantasy football victories are tainted). One of those bad guys is now at the bottom of the ocean with a big hole in his face.

Then I thought "the final season of Rescue Me is going to be AWESOME!" Right? It's not necessarily that I think this recent news will make Rescue Me better, although it certainly could, but being reminded of 9/11 immediately reminded me of Rescue Me and how much I can't wait for the last season to start. I may try to freeze myself for the next two months.

After that thought came, "I hope everybody enjoys President Obama's second term, I know I will". Sure it was crass to think about politics at that point, but whatever, I like politics. Just look at the reality of President Obama's clear competence vs. the carnival of morons that currently make up the Republican field. My pick for the GOP nomination, Haley Barbour, who I contend is not a moron and could be a serious candidate, dropped out of the race before he even got in. Thanks for playing. I don't know who to root for in the Republican primaries now. Mitch Daniels? He's like 8 inches tall.

And then, as I went to sleep Sunday night, I think I was back at "yeah America!". But the "yeah America!" of today isn't the same as it was back in, say, 1998. The darkness makes things more complicated, murkier. We know a lot more now, including plenty of things we never wanted to know. I now know that you can't just capture the world's most wanted terrorist, put him on trial and throw him in prison forever. All you can do is find him, shoot him in the face and throw him in the ocean. I really didn't want to know that.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preivew - AL East

Very recently, I saw a poll on ESPN.com asking people whether or not Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. At the time I saw it, over half the respondents said no. Barry Bonds was the second greatest player of his generation before the steroids. Either half the people responding to ESPN polls are stupid, or they're confusing Barry Bonds with Barry Zito.

Boston Red Sox
Opening Thought: When I moved to southern Connecticut, I was sort of halfway between Red Sox nation and Yankee country, maybe still a little more than halfway in Yankee country. Now, in western Massachusetts, I'm firmly in Red Sox land. So far, the only thing I know for sure is I'm going to have to get the MLB extra innings package for my television machine, because I need to watch baseball in the summer and I just couldn't bring myself to watch Boston everyday, especially since they'll be pummeling teams most of the time.

Off-season: In each the last four seasons, Adrian Gonzalez has posted at least 30 home runs, 99RBIs and 160 games played, and he's still only 28. I'm not sure you could find a better investment. Unless you invest in Carl Crawford, who's only 29, has 7 seasons of 46 or more stolen bases and five seasons hitting over .300. Crawford's on-base percentage (.337 career) isn't as high as you'd like, and he strikes out too much for a guy who doesn't hit a lot of home runs, but Boston still nailed this off-season by picking up two of the best three players available, and Bobby Jenks.

Questions: Can Boston get anything from Jared Saltalamacchia? What's left of Josh Beckett? What's the over/under on this season's Jed Lowrie injury?

Answers: I put the Lowrie over/under at May 17th. All they need out of Salty is enough to keep Jason Varitek's dead body off the field, which isn't much. As far Beckett, he's like a car you only bought a few years ago, but you drove the crap out of it and now it's way more used up than it should be. Last time Beckett posted an ERA above 5, he followed it up with a 3.27 ERA and 20 wins, but that was four years ago, I'm not sure he can do that again.

My Favorite Thing: This is a tough one, because I like Boston's pitching too, but last year I said Boston was one bat away, and they went out and got two, so I'm going with offense. The Red Sox have speed (Ellsbury and Crawford), power (Gonzalez and Ortiz) and guys who hit for average (Youkilis, Crawford again, Pedroia). They can beat you however they want.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: I guess Papelbon, who put up a 3.90 ERA last year and blew 8 saves. Having said that, Boston won't wait too long to go to Daniel Bard if Papelbon isn't getting the job done, and I really like Bard.

Closing Thought: Every year I think David Ortiz is done, and every year it seems he isn't quite there yet. I give up.

Prediction: First place, and (arrrgggh!) I like Boston an awful lot to win the AL this year.

New York Yankees
Opening Thought: When I was a kid, I played little league baseball. At the pee-wee level, I remember the umpires and coaches doing all the pitching, so nobody had a pitching advantage and winning was all about hitting. I think this year's Yankees need to find a league like that.

Off-season: I shouldn't complain too much. Two years ago the Yankees brought in Sabathia and Teixeira and won a title. Last year they went out and got Granderson. Every off-season can't bring new all-stars. On top of that, while I can't get excited about Russell Martin's bat anymore, I'll take any defense behind the plate over Jorge Posada. Feliciano and Soriano make excellent bullpen additions, the bridge to Mariano is probably the strongest it's been in years.

Questions: Who's the fifth starter?

Answers: Fifth starter? Who's the fourth starter, or even the 3rd starter when Hughes gets hurt (which you know he will)? For that matter, what happens if Burnett can't find it again? So basically, I only really know who the first starter is.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. The whole line-up except Gardner (and now Martin I guess, although I have to think/hope Jesus Montero will be up to taking Martin's job by May or June) put up double digit home runs last year. If Granderson can stay healthy, he and Gardner still bring some speed and I think Jeter has one more .300 season left in him. The Yankees would dominate my pee-wee baseball league, or a slow pitch softball league.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. CC Sabathia and then look out below. I am in no way convinced that AJ Burnett is anything but done, nor am I convinced that Phil Hughes can stay healthy or pitch to a sub-4 ERA. You may be able to convince me that Bartolo Colon is, in fact, still alive, but that's about it.

Closing Thought: Can I be honest? I think my Yankee fandom is probably the only thing that kept New York out of third or even fourth place for me. I hate this team's starting pitching so much, I can't get over it.

Prediction: Second place, I hope.

Baltimore Orioles
Speaking of guys who belong in the hall of fame, let's take a quick look at Vladimir Guerrero. A .320 career average (which includes 13 seasons over .300 , 13!) 2427 hits, 10 seasons of over 100 RBI, 179 career steals, 436 home runs, a fantastic defensive right fielder in his prime. I could go on and on. I'm not breaking any news saying Vlad is going to the Hall, but I was a little surprised to see that he looks like a first ballot no-brainer.

Off-season: What happened here? Seriously. I just looked at the Baltimore depth chart, where did all these guys come from? I knew about Vlad Guerrero, and I think I'd heard about Derrek Lee, but when did Mark Reynolds happen? and Justin Duchscherer? and JJ Hardy? I don't even know where to start, but let's start with Reynolds. Mark Reynolds hit .198 last year playing in a pretty large ballpark and still hit 32 home runs. Now, if he hits .198 again, they'll have to bench him at some point, he's playing in a real division now. But, if he gets even marginally better, he'll hit 40 home runs. Pretty good pick up.

Questions: Can Vladimir Guerrero stay healthy? Can Brian Roberts? Does Derrek Lee have anything left?

Answers: I think so and probably not. Lee hit .306 and had a big year in 2009, so last year could just be one bad year, but he's 35 now. I wouldn't bet on a big bounce back, maybe a little one, something like .270/25/90.

My Favorite Thing: Lots to like about Baltimore's line-up if they stay healthy. I already mentioned all the new guys, and I think being on a decent team for once could breath some life back into Nick Markakis.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching concerns me a little. I think Jake Arrieta should be pretty good one day, but it doesn't look like he's there yet. Kevin Gregg doesn't impress me as a closer. Brian Matusz was pretty ordinary overall last year (4.30 ERA, 10-12), but he was great down the stretch (6-1 in August and September, 2.43 ERA in August, 1.89 in September). Not bad pitching exactly, just unreliable.

Closing Thought: I don't know if Baltimore has a full winning season in them, but I'd be willing to put decent money on the Orioles being in first place on June 1st.

Prediction: Third place, lots of upside.

Tampa Bay Rays
Opening Thought: Nothing in baseball over the last four years or so has been more predictable then the inevitable break-up of the first good Tampa team, but it's still kind of sad to watch. It would be less sad if Carl Crawford was a Yankee right now like he's supposed to be.

Off-season: Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and Carlos Pena are all gone, replaced by the likes of Johnny Damon, Kyle Farnsworth and Dan Johnson. Even though they won the division, Tampa wasn't super impressive last year, and now their roster is noticeably worse. That's not great.

Questions: How much can the Rays get out of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon?

Answers: Probably not a whole lot. I liked both of them as possible DH's for American League teams, but both of them on the same team makes no sense. Neither one of them is up to playing left field this year.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. David Price was probably the rightful AL Cy Young last year (2.72 ERA, 19-6). Some people seem to think he can't do that again, but I don't see why not. I like Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. So, even though James Shields has always been overrated (5.18 ERA last year, yuck), Tampa's rotation, as a whole, should be pretty good to excellent.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: That whole Damon/Ramirez thing could easily fit here, but don't forget about the bullpen. Anytime the words "Kyle Farnsworth" and "counting on" are in the same sentence for your team, bad things are a comin'.

Closing Thought: Tampa isn't a bad team exactly, they're just in a rough division. The Rays could probably win the central.

Prediction: Fourth place, but these are all good teams and pitching wins games. The Rays could easily be better than Baltimore and certainly can out-pitch the Yankees (at least for the first 6 or 7 innings). Some upside here too.

Toronto Blue Jays
Opening Thought: "Attention Canada! I am Barney from America, and I am here to fix your backward-ass country. Number one, get real money. I don't know what board game this came from..."

Off-season: The only addition worth noting was closer Frank Francisco, and it seems he's already hurt. I've always said pitcher injuries before the season even starts never end well. The Jays also added Octavio Dotel and John Rauch. It's a veritable cornucopia of guys who would terrify me if they were in my team's bullpen.

Questions: Can Aaron Hill and Adam Lind come back? Can Jose Bautista hit 50 home runs again? How good is J.P. Arencibia?

Answers: I'm not sure they can, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO and really good I think. Arencibia hit .301 with 30+ homers in triple A last year. Lots of good young catchers around baseball right now, I hope Jesus Montero turns out to be one of them.

My Favorite Thing: Toronto can hit. Even if Hill and Lind only get halfway back, and even if Bautista comes back down to, say, 30 home runs, they're still pretty good. Rajai Davis (50 steals last year) and Juan Rivera (30 home run power if he can ever stay healthy) make nice additions to what should be a pretty solid line-up.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. What's the record for blown leads by a team in one season?

Closing Thought: I didn't mention Toronto's starting pitching. I don't love it, I don't hate it. The AL East isn't really the division you want to be in when you're trying to break-in a bunch of young pitchers. Expect some dominating performances mixed in with a lot of severe beatings.

Prediction: Last place. Toronto isn't really a bad team either, but somebody has to finish last in this division.

World Series Prediction: Philly over Boston in six. The Phillies just have too much pitching and more than enough offense to back it up. Boston should be pretty beat up after a tough year in the AL East, while, in contrast, the Phillies can dominate their division with one ace tied behind their back.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - AL Central

Chicago White Sox
Opening Thought: As I mentioned last year, the White Sox are the President's team, and it's sort of fitting. Like the President, the White Sox had a 2010 that was good, but still somehow disappointing. And, like the President, I'm optimistic about the White Sox again for 2011 even though I should probably know better by now.

Off-season: 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38 and 38. Those are the home run totals for Adam Dunn for the last 7 seasons. Six of those seasons also included RBI totals over 100, and five of them came with on-base percentages above .380. Why does it always seem like teams aren't really interested in this guy? He's still only 31. I know he's never hit above .267, but I call Dunn a big score at a reasonable price for the White Sox. Chicago also added Jesse Crain and Will Ohman to the bullpen and the supposedly talented Lastings Milledge to their minor league system. Nice winter work for Kenny Williams.

Questions: Doesn't it feel like AJ Pierzynski has been around forever? Did I need some help spelling Pierzynski? Could Chicago actually get something out of Milledge?

Answers: Seriously, yes. I feel like AJ could tell us what it was like to catch Cy Young. And yes, of course I need help with Pierzynski. As for Milledge, I think maybe they could get something out of him. He's still only 25 and he did hit .277 last year (with basically no power or speed, but that's a start I guess).

My Favorite Thing: Pitching. 25 year old John Danks has made at least 32 starts and posted an ERA under 4 in each of the last three seasons. I'm not a huge Mark Buehrle fan, but he's started at least 30 games every season since 2001. Edwin Jackson has made at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons and pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts with Chicago last year. They'll need Jake Peavy back to put them over the top, but I love seeing a healthy, reliable rotation around a big question mark like Peavy.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: As much as I like Dunn, I'm a little worried about Chicago's offense. Gordon Beckham was awful (.252/9HR/49RBI) in his first full season, Alexei Ramirez doesn't seem to be developing past anything other than a solid shortstop, Paul Konerko is 35 and won't hit .300 again and I'm not wild about Juan Pierre this season either. I wouldn't say I'm negative on Chicago's offense, just skeptical.

Closing Thought: If the White Sox don't get anything out of Jake Peavy this year, I take back putting them in first.

Prediction: First place, I'm fairly certain nobody from the Central will wind up representing the AL in the world series.

Minnesota Twins
Opening Thought: Marshall - "Yeah, this is like a spring day back in Minnesota if it wasn't for all the taxis, skyscrapers and non-white people."
Lily -"There aren't any black people in Minnesota?"
Marshall -"Not if Prince is on tour."

Off-season: Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The fact that the Twins wound up with Nishioka when landing Japanese players is generally all about money tells me I shouldn't be too excited about this guy. Additionally, if you're from New York, you've already had one awful experience with a Japanese middle infielder. I think Met fans would tell Twin fans to hope for the best but expect the worst.

Questions: How quickly can Joe Nathan return to form? Can Justin Morneau stay healthy for a full season.

Answers: I'd be a little worried about Nathan if I was Minnesota. Relievers don't last forever and Joe is 36. I'm not saying he can't come back, I'm just saying the optimism should be cautious. I don't know about Morneau. In the three years before 2009, he averaged 159 games played. It isn't always easy to tell the difference between injury-prone guys and guys who just had some bad luck. I'm not sure what to expect, I'd probably advise more cautious optimism.

My Favorite Thing: The Twins basically bring to the table the same offense they had last year, which is still pretty good, especially if Morneau does stay healthy. Who knew Delmon Young would finally figure it out? I'm not sure I can say I did, but he's still only 25, and the Twins got him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Pretty good deal.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Carl Pavano. 26 starts in four seasons as a Yankee, 65 starts in the two seasons since. He will never be forgiven.

Closing Thought: I don't really like Minnesota's pitching on paper, but it always seems to turn out OK for them. I always like Minnesota for third or fourth place, but they never finish that low. I've learned my lesson, sort of.

Prediction: Second place. Obviously, if both Morneau and Nathan never really show up, it could be worse.

Detroit Tigers
Opening Thought: "I'm in no condition to be driving. Wait a minute...I shouldn't be listening to myself, I'm drunk!"

If I've learned anything from movies and TV, it's that people who seem to be spiraling out of control need to hit bottom in an entertaining yet sad way before their inevitable redemption. So, I like the 2013 Tigers to ride Miguel Cabrera's redemption to the world series, but I'm a little nervous about him for 2011. If Cabrera misses significant time, Detroit looks pretty ordinary to me.

Off-season: Victor Martinez has missed significant time in two out of the last three years, and he's 32, which is approximately 40 in catcher years. Still, if he stays healthy, that's a good pick-up. Unlike, say, Jhonny Peralta (hit .249 last year) and Brad Penny (really should have stayed in the NL).

Questions: Will Joel Zumaya ever get healthy? Will Austin Jackson regress a little in his 2nd year, or get better?

Answers: Sadly, the answer to the Zumaya question seems to be no. Jackson's .396 average on balls in play last year suggests a regression, but I think he'll still be OK.

My Favorite Thing: Power, especially if Cabrera is around all year. When you look around the Detroit line-up, setting aside Magglio Ordonez, they've got a bunch of guys who can hit home runs and scare pitchers.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Not a lot to like out there for the Tigers. Jose Valverde, for example, sports a career ERA over 3. There's a reason a guy who strikes out well over a batter per inning has pitched for three different teams in eight seasons.

Closing Thought: If everything goes right for Detroit, there's no reason they can't do better than third. I just see a lot that could go wrong.

Prediction: Third place. The bright side is, I don't think they can do any worse.

Kansas City Royals
Opening Thought: I'm sure every player who's ever been traded out of Kansas City really misses the Royal Crown Cola.

Off-season: I can't imagine a lot of other GM's were punching their desks when Bruce Chen and Melky Cabrera went off the market. I do think Jeff Francis makes an interesting pick-up, even though he's 30 now. I know it's hard to find a lot to like about Francis, who was actually worse on the road last year than he was at Coors Field, but he was talented once, and when you're the Royals, sometimes you have to take chances like this and cross your fingers.

Questions: When will the Royals trade Joakim Soria? WHEN?

Answers: I'm actually less interested in this question this year, I kind of like the Yankees' set-up situation right now, but Soria would still be an upgrade. When can we have him? Did you know Soria's career ERA (2.01) as actually better than Mariano Rivera's (2.23)?

My Favorite Thing: I honestly kind of like Kansas City's starting pitching. Francis, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar are all supposed to have some talent. I've been fooled by all of those guys before, especially Davies, but I still think it's enough to make the Royals better than Cleveland.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Offense. I like Billy Butler (batting average up 17 points last year, strike-outs down 25), and that's pretty much it. Lorenzo Cain should be fun to watch if he makes the opening day line-up (and seriously, why wouldn't he, it's not like the Royals are going anywhere). Just not a lot of runs here.

Closing Thought: What happened to Alex Gordon? He went from the next George Brett to competing for an outfield spot with Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francour. I really don't need to add anything to that.

Prediction: Fourth place. I propose we award the Royals an extra win anytime they wear the light blue throwbacks, I love those things.

Cleveland Indians
Opening Thought: Insert Charlie Sheen/wild thing joke here.

Off-season: Yet another team that was terrible last year and decided to stick with it. I know everyone in Cleveland is still recovering from the Lebron thing, but it's time to starting moving on.

Questions: Can we find a relatively attractive but highly unlikeable owner to motivate the Indians to overachieve? That plan has worked before.

Answers: Probably not, but one can always hope. Hey, maybe one day Lebron can buy the Indians. He's not attractive, but he's certainly unlikeable.

My Favorite Thing: Youth. Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana. I'll be interested to see Cleveland play this year, even if they won't be winning a whole lot. Interesting stat, Santana was hitting .260 last year before he got hurt, which is solid for a rookie, but that's not the interesting stat. His on-base percentage when he got hurt last year was .401. Now, Santana didn't do it for a full season, but it's worth noting that, if he had, that would have placed him tied for 6th in all of baseball.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. Move along people, nothing to see here (I think I've used that joke before. In fact, it's possible I used it for Cleveland's pitching last year). To be fair, Fausto Carmona posted a very respectable 3.77 ERA last year. The last time Carmona pitched over 200 innings and posted an ERA under 4 was 2007, his ERAs for the next two years were 5.44 and 6.32. So, it's possible he's turned a corner, but it's also possible he can't put together two straight strong years.

Closing Thought: Sad times in Cleveland, just sad times.

Prediction: Last place. Cleveland can out-hit Kansas City, but they can't out-pitch them. If good pitching beats good hitting, then I think it stands to reason that mediocre pitching and awful hitting can beat awful pitching and mediocre hitting.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - AL West

Texas Rangers
Opening Thought: "Cocaine is a hell of a drug"

Last year, I remember talking about how I thought Texas was a year away. One world series appearance and one Cliff Lee departure later, and I find myself more unsure about Texas than I am about any other division winner. Having said that, I stand by last year's evaluation. This year's Rangers should be better than last year's Rangers were before Lee showed up, and that should be just good enough.

Off-season: Haven't we all learned our lesson about Adrian Beltre? Sports are fun because there are very few sure things, and we never know what's going to happen next. One of the few things I'm absolutely sure of is this...I wouldn't want to be the team that signed Adrian Beltre to his next long-term contract.

Questions: Can Josh Hamilton stay healthy? Can Texas get anything out of Brandon Webb? Does Michael Young finish the year in Texas?

Answers: Hell no on Hamilton. I have no idea about Webb, but if he somehow returns to form by mid-season, he can be every bit as good as Lee. Michael Young is an interesting question for me. I've always said Michael Young is basically Derek Jeter without the hype. Even at 34, I have to believe some other team would be interested in Young (a career .300 hitter) if he's on the block.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Even in a non-contract year, Beltre is good for 25-30 home runs. Josh Hamilton won't play 162 games, but he'll be great in the games he does play. This team has speed, power, depth, even a couple of guys who can hit for average. Texas can score.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen, I guess. With C.J. Wilson now firmly in the rotation and Frank Francisco now firmly in Canada, Texas doesn't have much behind Neftali Feliz, but the list of teams with shaky set-up situations is just about as long as the list of teams period, so I'm not that worried.

Closing Thought: Texas' rotation makes me a little nervous too, but I like Derek Holland and Tommy Hunter to have good years. The Rangers won't need a ton of pitching, and they should have enough.

Prediction: First place, and that's probably as far as it goes for Texas. I think two straight AL pennants is a little beyond this team's reach.

Los Angeles Angels
Opening Thought: The one thing that jumps out at me about the Angels is how different they are from just a few years ago. No more Lackey, no more K-Rod, lots of new faces. As a Yankee fan, I've always kind of hated the Angels, but it occurs to me I don't really recognize any of the faces I'll be hating this year.

Off-season: I'm honestly not sure what to make of Vernon Wells. He's only 32 and he had a pretty good season last year. I always thought Vernon had eventual Yankee written all over him, oh well. Scott Downs should be a nice pick-up too, they'll need someone to back-up Fernando Rodney, I don't trust him.

Questions: What's going on with Kendrys Morales? What happened to Brandon Wood? And while we're at it, what happened to Scott Kazmir?

Answers: I don't know, but I recently read something about Morales probably not being ready for opening day. I'm not sure what's going on, but that's pretty bad news. I have no idea what happened to Wood, I thought he'd be a good one. As for Kazmir, seems like the Mets may have dodged a bullet there.

My Favorite Thing: Nothing jumps out at me about the Angels, but if they can get something out of Scott Kazmir, they'll have a pretty good rotation. This is another team that really could have used Cliff Lee. Sidenote, Dan Haren has pitched at least 216 innings every season since 2005. Either he's just really durable, or his shoulder is about to explode.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Oldness. Especially in the outfield. Torii Hunter is 35, Bobby Abreu is 36 and should be moving to DH for most of this season. The infield is younger, but also kind of disappointing so far. Howie Kendrick's batting average has dropped every season since 2007, not a good sign for a guy who was supposed to win batting titles.

Closing Thought: Why haven't the Angels been punished yet for being involved with the worst baseball movie ever?

Prediction: Second place, and you know only teams in the AL East get to compete for the wild card in the American League. Tough break for the Angels.

Oakland Athletics
Opening Thought: I always feel like the A's are just sort of there. I don't like them, I don't really dislike them, I'm always disappointed when I realize that's who the Yankees are playing, but only because I just really don't want to watch them.

Off-season: As usual, the A's off-season was mostly uneventful, but punctuated by a weird veteran signing (Hideki Matsui). I can never tell what the A's are thinking, but Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour should solidify their bullpen.

Questions: How will this team score runs? And, seriously, how will this team score runs?

Answers: I honestly don't know. Matsui is 36, Josh Willingham could never stay healthy and wasn't ever that good anyway.

My Favorite Thing: Pitching. Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill. If Brett Anderson can stay healthy, I really like this rotation. The bullpen should be solid too.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: As previously mentioned, offense. I just don't know how this team scores runs. It's a team full of guys who should all be hitting 7th.

Closing Thought: Yawn.

Prediction: Third place, I don't see them being able to compete with LA or Texas, but pitching is always dangerous, so you never know.


Seattle Mariners
Opening Thought: "Sure, it's easy to point out my flaws, it's a little harder to shut up!"

Oh, the Mariners. I had such high hopes for them last year, and they were just awful right out of the gate. Cliff Lee was gone by August while Adrian Beltre's corpse was springing back to life in Boston. Sometimes a team needs to learn from a bad season, other times it's better just to never speak of it again.

Off-season: Seattle signed a bunch of small pieces in the off-season, but nobody you'd get excited about. So, let's see what happens when the worst team in the AL decides to stand pat.

Questions: Honestly, nothing I want to know the answer to.

Answers: Boooooooooooooo!


My Favorite Thing: There's Felix Hernandez, who's only 24 (seriously, I know). Seattle has some young guys that should be fun to watch (Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders). Problem is, Smoak and Saunders were both awful last year, and Smoak was awful with two different teams. Both of those guys will have to make HUGE improvements to be helpful.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Lots to choose from, but with David Aardsma starting the year on the DL, I'll go with bullpen. Not that Seattle will need their closer a whole lot this year.

Closing Thought: If I'm wrong again about Seattle, and this year they somehow contend, I give up.

Prediction: Last place, way last.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL East

Quick thought before we start. I'm tired of hearing people knock Charlie Sheen. I understand that most of us wouldn't enjoy, or even be able to survive, Charlie Sheen's life, but Charlie is enjoying the shit out of it. Why should he apologize for that? And his show sucks, so who cares anyway? On to the baseball...

Philadelphia Phillies
Opening Thought: "...and six months ago, when Doug introduced me to you guys I thought, wait a second, could it be? And now I know for sure, I just added two more guys to my wolf-pack. Four of us wolves, running around the desert in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine."

Roy Halladay has to be pretty psyched right now, right? Two years ago his prime was rotting away, perpetually in fourth place in Toronto. Now? His team practically has a bye to the world series. This literally couldn't have worked out any better for him.

Off-season: Who knew the Phillies would win the Cliff Lee sweepstakes? Even Lee had to be a little surprised when he signed with a team that didn't even really need him, to the point that it traded him...last year. I thought, for a while, maybe Philadelphia would trade one of the other pitchers they have for a big bat (say, Hamels and Howard for Pujols and Westbrook), but it looks like they're keeping everyone.

Questions: Who becomes the fifth starter for this team? Does Jimmy Rollins have anything left?

Answers: Who cares (although I actually like Kyle Kendrick over Joe Blanton) and I think so. I'd be worried about Rollins if I were a Philly fan, but he's only 32. I have to believe a healthy Rollins has at least one more good year in him.

My Favorite Thing: Ummmm, I'm gonna have to go with starting pitching. Random fun baseball fact. The 1971 Baltimore Orioles were the last team to have four 20-game winners on one staff. Just sayin'.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: This is a tough one. The Phillies struggled to score runs last year, and losing Jayson Werth won't help. Also, Brad Lidge only has two speeds, unhittable and totally awful, which makes the Philadelphia bullpen a little unpredictable. However, the bullpen also features Ryan Madson and a surprisingly effective Jose Contreras. In right field, top prospect Domonic Brown, who hit .327 in the minors last year, should be ready to replace Werth.

Closing Thought: Baseball's weird sometimes and teams that look too good to be true frequently are, but this team looks crazy on paper.

Prediction: First place, Philly fans can start buying world series tickets now.

Alright folks, that's it for the NL East, next week, we start the Americ....wait, what? You're saying there are other teams in this division? Hold on, I'll be right back...Hey! You were right.

New York Mets
Opening Thought: You heard me!

This isn't some kind of reverse jinx. I told you already, the Mets/Yankees rivalry is nonsense. MLB and ESPN just made it up to get you to watch their crappy interleague games. I'm rooting for the Mets, New York deserves two good teams.

Off-season: I would have liked to have seen the Mets get in on the Cliff Lee bidding, they desperately need another top end starter. Having said that, the Mets made a lot of little pick-ups this off-season that I think will help them. Scott Hairston is a nice player with a lot of flexibility and they added some bullpen depth. Not the splashiest off-seasons, but I think they got a little better.

Questions: Can this team tread water until Beltran and Santana get back? When will Luis Castillo's awful contract end?

Answers: Maybe and seemingly never (but actually after this season). I actually wouldn't hold my breath for getting anything useful from Santana or Beltran this year, but I think it's possible the rest of this team could contend on their own.

My Favorite Thing: I don't see why the Mets can't score runs, even without Beltran. Reyes should be healthy, they still have David Wright and Jason Bay and Ike Davis. Davis, by the way, in only 23 and should get noticeably better. I know Citi Field isn't exactly hitter-friendly, but the teams they're playing have to play there too and the Mets look to me like a team that should be able to produce enough runs to win more than they lose.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Starting pitching. Hopefully, at some point this season, Met opponents will, once again, find out that you don't mess with the Johan. Until then, this staff is a disaster with nobody that even resembles an ace. If you're sitting in the first few sections of outfield seats when the Mets visit your team, bring a glove, and maybe a helmet.

Closing Thought: Everybody's clear now on why the Twins couldn't get anything good for Santana, right? I'm not saying the Mets shouldn't have made the trade, they got an ace for what amounted to a few spare parts. But we all see why now, right? Santana was an "injury-plagued second half of his career" guy waiting to happen, and now it's happening.

Prediction: Second place and who knows. I like the Reds for the wild card, but the Mets have "nobody believed in us" written all over them.

Atlanta Braves
Opening Thought: If Atlanta continues being the worst sports city in America can we, at some point, start confiscating their teams?

Off-season: The big trade for Dan Uggla highlighted Atlanta's off-season. Uggla is 30 now, he was never a .300 hitter and last year was his first season over .260 since 2006, but, he's good for 30 home runs and he was always better on the road for Florida. I'm willing to call this a nice pick-up.

Questions: Who closes games for Atlanta? Is Jason Heyward ready to carry this offense?

Answers: You're probably looking at closer by committee in Atlanta. As for Heyward, I don't think so. Heyward is a great talent, but he's still only 21. If I'm the Braves, I'm just hoping he gets through the season healthy so I don't have to starting worrying that he's injury-prone.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching, but with one caveat. I love Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens, who just turned 25, is always good for a quality start. Add Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson and this rotation should be very good. The caveat? Lowe is 37 and can't do this forever. Hudson turns 36 this summer and isn't exactly the picture of health. More on this later.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Hasn't this always been the story in Atlanta? Quick hint for all MLB teams, never sign a reliever that once played for Joe Torre unless his name is Mariano. The Braves have two of them.

Closing Thought: I could go either way on the Braves. Something feels a little off about this team. I'm looking at Lowe and Hudson and thinking if they both start breaking down this year, could this be sort of a lost season for Atlanta? Maybe. On the other hand, if they both have one more good year left, this team could compete for a wild card.

Prediction: Third place, could be better, could be worse.

Florida Marlins
Opening Thought: "Lois, when I'm done with them, our kids will be so smart they'll be able to program their own VCR's without spilling piping hot gravy all over myself."

I feel like we're always waiting for Florida's kids to grow up. We're always one or two years away from them being really good, but we're never sure if we'll actually get there or if they'll just drop the kids off in Boston and New York before they're fully mature. Small market baseball, catch the fever!

Off-season: Dan Uggla out, Javier Vazquez in. I think Florida is banking on Vazquez being good again when he comes back to the NL, but at some point, he's just old, right?

Questions: How good is Mike Stanton? Can Hanley Ramirez carry this team to the post-season?

Answers: 22 home runs in 359 big league at-bats last year, and he's 21. So I'm going with pretty damn good. As for Hanley, I've seen no evidence that he can carry a team anywhere, except maybe a fantasy team.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Big season coming up for 27-year-old Anibal Sanchez. Write it down.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Rumors I've already read out of Florida's spring training camp about possible concerns with Josh Johnson's shoulder, or elbow, or back, or whatever. Spring training rumors about a pitcher being hurt rarely end well.

Closing Thought: Florida's offense leaves me cold. Hanley Ramirez is more of a stat monster than anything else and Mike Stanton is still probably a year or two away from being able to add a high average to his power.

Prediction: Fourth place. Another forgettable season in Miami.

Washington Nationals
Opening Thought: "Trying is the first step towards failure."

Off-season: Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche. What's going on here? Are the Nationals actually trying? My whole world is upside down, I'm starting to get a headache.

Questions: Will Livan Hernandez ever be finished? Can Adam LaRoche produce in the first half of a season for once?

Answers: Yes, stay tuned and no, probably not. Can't they just tell LaRoche it's July now?

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Werth has a year or two before his contract becomes awful and the Nationals still have Ryan Zimmerman and Nyjer Morgan. When Adam LaRoche shows up for the second half, this team should score.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. We'll see Stephen Strasburg in 2012 and until then, yuck.

Closing Thought: It'll be pretty sad if Washington actually tries once and still finishes last. To be honest, I kind of hope I'm wrong about this.

Prediction: Fifth place. Honestly, I'm not really sold on anyone is this division after Philadelphia. If Washington and the Mets finished in opposite positions from where I have them, it wouldn't shock me. Still, I can't believe the Nationals as contenders until I see it.