The Curious Case of the Mets

In general, I don't believe in anything, or I at least try not to believe in anything. I try to know things, knowledge being belief in something that is true. We can't always know what is true, but we can try to find out.

So, I don't believe in god, or gods, or superstition. I don't believe in fate or destiny. I don't believe in ghosts or spirits. I know sometimes people can get lucky, but I don't believe a person, or a group, or a team can be consistently lucky or unlucky. I certainly don't believe in curses. And yet, there's the curious case of the New York Mets.

As a native New Yorker, the Mets were always somewhere on my TV. I would watch them whenever the Yankees were off, or rained out, or playing at a different time, or playing Baltimore for the 15th time and I just couldn't stand it anymore. I'm happy to root for the Mets as long as they aren't playing the Yankees (which, incidentally, should happen never unless they meet in the World Series; I hate interleague play SO MUCH).

I worry about the Mets. In the 24+ seasons since the 1986 World Series victory, here are some numbers on the B team in the nation's biggest market (which, of course, rightfully means they should be the best team in the National League):

11 losing seasons (including 103 losses in 1993, which put them 5 games behind the expansion Marlins)
11 different managers
4 playoff appearances
1 World Series appearance

And the playoff appearances...oh, the playoff appearances, almost tailor-made to slowly drive fans into insanity.

1988: The Mets go up 2-1 in the NLCS before losing two home games, only to win game six in Los Angeles and then ultimately get shut down by Orel Hershiser in a game 7 that was over after two innings.

1999: After falling behind Atlanta 3-0, the Mets fight back to make it a series with two one-run victories, including a 15-inning game 5 win in which they were down one going into the bottom of the 15th. Then, they lost game 6 by the score of 10-9 in extra innings after overcoming a 5-run first inning deficit.

2000: The Mets finally get all the way back to the World Series, only to have their pants pulled down on national television by a cross-town rival that simply had them outgunned. The Yankees never had a doubt, the Mets never had a chance.

2006: Game 7 against the spectacularly mediocre Cardinals. Down two, bases loaded, two outs. Carlos Beltran, easily the Mets' best player that season, watches somberly as strike three sails right on by, almost like he was thinking "OK, I've got him right where I want him, when he tries to throw strike four by me, I'm gonna hit it out of the park!".

What's wrong with the Mets? Why aren't they the best team in the National League, the one that New York deserves? Some people go right to ownership. As far as I'm concerned, the owner's only job is to provide money, and the Mets have been top 10 in payroll every year since 1986, including 2003 when they were second and still managed to lose 95 games. Say what you want about the Mets' ownership, they put up the cash.

Poor management then? Maybe, Omar Minaya made a lot of mistakes. Letting Willie Randolph, the best manager the team had since Davey Johnson (you heard me!), go in 2008 when the team was just one game under .500 was a huge blunder. But then, so was letting Davey Johnson, the most successful manager in Met history, go in 1990 when the team was 2 games under .500 just 42 games in. Omar was scouting for the Texas Rangers when that happened.

Omar signed a ton of bad contracts too. Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez were disasters. He overpaid for Carlos Beltran by at least 20 million dollars, and don't even get me started on Jason Bay. But Omar wasn't there for Bobby Bonilla, or Vince Coleman. He wasn't even the one who signed Kaz Matsui.

The Mets failed miserably, over and over again, to properly develop young talent under Omar Minaya. Lastings Milledge never panned out, and Fernando Martinez already looks pretty much ruined. Mike Pelfrey could have been an ace, but now it looks like he's rounding into a guy who can be the number 3 starter on a championship team.

But failure to properly handle prospects goes back 20 years for this franchise. Remember Gregg Jefferies? A constant disappointment with the Mets who left, spent a year toiling in Kansas City and then hit .342 and .325 in back to back years in St. Louis. I could fill this space just with names of talented guys who never panned out or good young players the Mets traded away (like Heath Bell, Scott Kazmir, Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, Bill Pulsipher, Milledge again just for fun, etc, etc, etc).

I've recently started to think the Mets' training staff may be to blame. How do you constantly have this many injuries to key guys? I understand Pedro Martinez was an injury risk when they signed him, everyone knew they wouldn't really get four full years from Pedro. Carlos Beltran seems to be falling apart, but maybe he's just getting older. Jason Bay played in at least 145 games every year since 2005, until last year. But maybe he's just getting older too. Maybe Jose Reyes is just injury prone. Maybe Johan Santana was always heading toward shoulder surgery. Maybe David Wright's recent back problem was just a freak thing. Maybe...maybe...maybe, but why are all these things happening to the same team?

I look at the Mets this year and I can't decide if they should go for the wild card or trade some key guys and start rebuilding. Currently, the Mets are two games over .500 and 7.5 games back of Atlanta in the wild card standings, and that's with, arguably, three of their best five players (Wright, Davis and Santana) on the DL, and a fourth one (Reyes) probably heading in that direction. If the Mets got all of those guys back by August 1st, and maybe added another pitcher (I'd love to see them add a #2 starter if they could find one), they could be a serious wild card contender.

On the other hand, this is probably their last chance to get something for Beltran, and they may have already missed the boat on getting something for Reyes while he was healthy. If they dealt Beltran, Reyes (if the injury isn't serious) and K-Rod, they could really stock a farm system that's currently running on empty. Additionally, the Mets (or Braves, or Diamondbacks, or Pirates or anyone else in the NL) have almost no shot at getting past the pitching in Philadelphia and San Francisco, so is it worth it for the Mets or anyone else to push knowing a playoff berth will ultimately end badly?

I think so. A healthy Met team, even with automatic outs at catcher and second base, can out-hit Philadelphia and San Francisco. If they were to add a legitimate #2 starter, that guy could join a healthy and fresh Santana, a solid #3 in Pelfrey and the emerging Dillon Gee or Jonathon Niese in a pretty formidable playoff rotation. You can't really count on the Mets' bullpen, but you can't really count on anyone's bullpen.

I said at the beginning of the season the Mets had "nobody believed in us" written all over them. That's even more true now with all the injuries. It's amazing what a competent manager can do with some talented players. I think the Mets should go for it, keep all the key guys and make one or two additions (namely, a starting pitcher. I've decided Chad Billingsley should be available. I'd suggest adding a second baseman, but I honestly can't think of one that might be available and worth anything).

If they can just get to the post-season, anything can happen, unless they're cursed. But even if they are cursed, they should still go for it. A cursed team can't win the World Series, but rebuilding won't help either, so they might as well have some fun before dumping another season into the black hole of losing. And I'll be rooting for them, because if they get to the World Series, I can't imagine they'll find the Yankees there. Just the thought of needing wins from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in October makes me a little queasy.