My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - AL Central

Chicago White Sox
Opening Thought: As I mentioned last year, the White Sox are the President's team, and it's sort of fitting. Like the President, the White Sox had a 2010 that was good, but still somehow disappointing. And, like the President, I'm optimistic about the White Sox again for 2011 even though I should probably know better by now.

Off-season: 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38 and 38. Those are the home run totals for Adam Dunn for the last 7 seasons. Six of those seasons also included RBI totals over 100, and five of them came with on-base percentages above .380. Why does it always seem like teams aren't really interested in this guy? He's still only 31. I know he's never hit above .267, but I call Dunn a big score at a reasonable price for the White Sox. Chicago also added Jesse Crain and Will Ohman to the bullpen and the supposedly talented Lastings Milledge to their minor league system. Nice winter work for Kenny Williams.

Questions: Doesn't it feel like AJ Pierzynski has been around forever? Did I need some help spelling Pierzynski? Could Chicago actually get something out of Milledge?

Answers: Seriously, yes. I feel like AJ could tell us what it was like to catch Cy Young. And yes, of course I need help with Pierzynski. As for Milledge, I think maybe they could get something out of him. He's still only 25 and he did hit .277 last year (with basically no power or speed, but that's a start I guess).

My Favorite Thing: Pitching. 25 year old John Danks has made at least 32 starts and posted an ERA under 4 in each of the last three seasons. I'm not a huge Mark Buehrle fan, but he's started at least 30 games every season since 2001. Edwin Jackson has made at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons and pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts with Chicago last year. They'll need Jake Peavy back to put them over the top, but I love seeing a healthy, reliable rotation around a big question mark like Peavy.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: As much as I like Dunn, I'm a little worried about Chicago's offense. Gordon Beckham was awful (.252/9HR/49RBI) in his first full season, Alexei Ramirez doesn't seem to be developing past anything other than a solid shortstop, Paul Konerko is 35 and won't hit .300 again and I'm not wild about Juan Pierre this season either. I wouldn't say I'm negative on Chicago's offense, just skeptical.

Closing Thought: If the White Sox don't get anything out of Jake Peavy this year, I take back putting them in first.

Prediction: First place, I'm fairly certain nobody from the Central will wind up representing the AL in the world series.

Minnesota Twins
Opening Thought: Marshall - "Yeah, this is like a spring day back in Minnesota if it wasn't for all the taxis, skyscrapers and non-white people."
Lily -"There aren't any black people in Minnesota?"
Marshall -"Not if Prince is on tour."

Off-season: Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The fact that the Twins wound up with Nishioka when landing Japanese players is generally all about money tells me I shouldn't be too excited about this guy. Additionally, if you're from New York, you've already had one awful experience with a Japanese middle infielder. I think Met fans would tell Twin fans to hope for the best but expect the worst.

Questions: How quickly can Joe Nathan return to form? Can Justin Morneau stay healthy for a full season.

Answers: I'd be a little worried about Nathan if I was Minnesota. Relievers don't last forever and Joe is 36. I'm not saying he can't come back, I'm just saying the optimism should be cautious. I don't know about Morneau. In the three years before 2009, he averaged 159 games played. It isn't always easy to tell the difference between injury-prone guys and guys who just had some bad luck. I'm not sure what to expect, I'd probably advise more cautious optimism.

My Favorite Thing: The Twins basically bring to the table the same offense they had last year, which is still pretty good, especially if Morneau does stay healthy. Who knew Delmon Young would finally figure it out? I'm not sure I can say I did, but he's still only 25, and the Twins got him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Pretty good deal.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Carl Pavano. 26 starts in four seasons as a Yankee, 65 starts in the two seasons since. He will never be forgiven.

Closing Thought: I don't really like Minnesota's pitching on paper, but it always seems to turn out OK for them. I always like Minnesota for third or fourth place, but they never finish that low. I've learned my lesson, sort of.

Prediction: Second place. Obviously, if both Morneau and Nathan never really show up, it could be worse.

Detroit Tigers
Opening Thought: "I'm in no condition to be driving. Wait a minute...I shouldn't be listening to myself, I'm drunk!"

If I've learned anything from movies and TV, it's that people who seem to be spiraling out of control need to hit bottom in an entertaining yet sad way before their inevitable redemption. So, I like the 2013 Tigers to ride Miguel Cabrera's redemption to the world series, but I'm a little nervous about him for 2011. If Cabrera misses significant time, Detroit looks pretty ordinary to me.

Off-season: Victor Martinez has missed significant time in two out of the last three years, and he's 32, which is approximately 40 in catcher years. Still, if he stays healthy, that's a good pick-up. Unlike, say, Jhonny Peralta (hit .249 last year) and Brad Penny (really should have stayed in the NL).

Questions: Will Joel Zumaya ever get healthy? Will Austin Jackson regress a little in his 2nd year, or get better?

Answers: Sadly, the answer to the Zumaya question seems to be no. Jackson's .396 average on balls in play last year suggests a regression, but I think he'll still be OK.

My Favorite Thing: Power, especially if Cabrera is around all year. When you look around the Detroit line-up, setting aside Magglio Ordonez, they've got a bunch of guys who can hit home runs and scare pitchers.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Not a lot to like out there for the Tigers. Jose Valverde, for example, sports a career ERA over 3. There's a reason a guy who strikes out well over a batter per inning has pitched for three different teams in eight seasons.

Closing Thought: If everything goes right for Detroit, there's no reason they can't do better than third. I just see a lot that could go wrong.

Prediction: Third place. The bright side is, I don't think they can do any worse.

Kansas City Royals
Opening Thought: I'm sure every player who's ever been traded out of Kansas City really misses the Royal Crown Cola.

Off-season: I can't imagine a lot of other GM's were punching their desks when Bruce Chen and Melky Cabrera went off the market. I do think Jeff Francis makes an interesting pick-up, even though he's 30 now. I know it's hard to find a lot to like about Francis, who was actually worse on the road last year than he was at Coors Field, but he was talented once, and when you're the Royals, sometimes you have to take chances like this and cross your fingers.

Questions: When will the Royals trade Joakim Soria? WHEN?

Answers: I'm actually less interested in this question this year, I kind of like the Yankees' set-up situation right now, but Soria would still be an upgrade. When can we have him? Did you know Soria's career ERA (2.01) as actually better than Mariano Rivera's (2.23)?

My Favorite Thing: I honestly kind of like Kansas City's starting pitching. Francis, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar are all supposed to have some talent. I've been fooled by all of those guys before, especially Davies, but I still think it's enough to make the Royals better than Cleveland.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Offense. I like Billy Butler (batting average up 17 points last year, strike-outs down 25), and that's pretty much it. Lorenzo Cain should be fun to watch if he makes the opening day line-up (and seriously, why wouldn't he, it's not like the Royals are going anywhere). Just not a lot of runs here.

Closing Thought: What happened to Alex Gordon? He went from the next George Brett to competing for an outfield spot with Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francour. I really don't need to add anything to that.

Prediction: Fourth place. I propose we award the Royals an extra win anytime they wear the light blue throwbacks, I love those things.

Cleveland Indians
Opening Thought: Insert Charlie Sheen/wild thing joke here.

Off-season: Yet another team that was terrible last year and decided to stick with it. I know everyone in Cleveland is still recovering from the Lebron thing, but it's time to starting moving on.

Questions: Can we find a relatively attractive but highly unlikeable owner to motivate the Indians to overachieve? That plan has worked before.

Answers: Probably not, but one can always hope. Hey, maybe one day Lebron can buy the Indians. He's not attractive, but he's certainly unlikeable.

My Favorite Thing: Youth. Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana. I'll be interested to see Cleveland play this year, even if they won't be winning a whole lot. Interesting stat, Santana was hitting .260 last year before he got hurt, which is solid for a rookie, but that's not the interesting stat. His on-base percentage when he got hurt last year was .401. Now, Santana didn't do it for a full season, but it's worth noting that, if he had, that would have placed him tied for 6th in all of baseball.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. Move along people, nothing to see here (I think I've used that joke before. In fact, it's possible I used it for Cleveland's pitching last year). To be fair, Fausto Carmona posted a very respectable 3.77 ERA last year. The last time Carmona pitched over 200 innings and posted an ERA under 4 was 2007, his ERAs for the next two years were 5.44 and 6.32. So, it's possible he's turned a corner, but it's also possible he can't put together two straight strong years.

Closing Thought: Sad times in Cleveland, just sad times.

Prediction: Last place. Cleveland can out-hit Kansas City, but they can't out-pitch them. If good pitching beats good hitting, then I think it stands to reason that mediocre pitching and awful hitting can beat awful pitching and mediocre hitting.