My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preivew - AL East

Very recently, I saw a poll on ESPN.com asking people whether or not Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. At the time I saw it, over half the respondents said no. Barry Bonds was the second greatest player of his generation before the steroids. Either half the people responding to ESPN polls are stupid, or they're confusing Barry Bonds with Barry Zito.

Boston Red Sox
Opening Thought: When I moved to southern Connecticut, I was sort of halfway between Red Sox nation and Yankee country, maybe still a little more than halfway in Yankee country. Now, in western Massachusetts, I'm firmly in Red Sox land. So far, the only thing I know for sure is I'm going to have to get the MLB extra innings package for my television machine, because I need to watch baseball in the summer and I just couldn't bring myself to watch Boston everyday, especially since they'll be pummeling teams most of the time.

Off-season: In each the last four seasons, Adrian Gonzalez has posted at least 30 home runs, 99RBIs and 160 games played, and he's still only 28. I'm not sure you could find a better investment. Unless you invest in Carl Crawford, who's only 29, has 7 seasons of 46 or more stolen bases and five seasons hitting over .300. Crawford's on-base percentage (.337 career) isn't as high as you'd like, and he strikes out too much for a guy who doesn't hit a lot of home runs, but Boston still nailed this off-season by picking up two of the best three players available, and Bobby Jenks.

Questions: Can Boston get anything from Jared Saltalamacchia? What's left of Josh Beckett? What's the over/under on this season's Jed Lowrie injury?

Answers: I put the Lowrie over/under at May 17th. All they need out of Salty is enough to keep Jason Varitek's dead body off the field, which isn't much. As far Beckett, he's like a car you only bought a few years ago, but you drove the crap out of it and now it's way more used up than it should be. Last time Beckett posted an ERA above 5, he followed it up with a 3.27 ERA and 20 wins, but that was four years ago, I'm not sure he can do that again.

My Favorite Thing: This is a tough one, because I like Boston's pitching too, but last year I said Boston was one bat away, and they went out and got two, so I'm going with offense. The Red Sox have speed (Ellsbury and Crawford), power (Gonzalez and Ortiz) and guys who hit for average (Youkilis, Crawford again, Pedroia). They can beat you however they want.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: I guess Papelbon, who put up a 3.90 ERA last year and blew 8 saves. Having said that, Boston won't wait too long to go to Daniel Bard if Papelbon isn't getting the job done, and I really like Bard.

Closing Thought: Every year I think David Ortiz is done, and every year it seems he isn't quite there yet. I give up.

Prediction: First place, and (arrrgggh!) I like Boston an awful lot to win the AL this year.

New York Yankees
Opening Thought: When I was a kid, I played little league baseball. At the pee-wee level, I remember the umpires and coaches doing all the pitching, so nobody had a pitching advantage and winning was all about hitting. I think this year's Yankees need to find a league like that.

Off-season: I shouldn't complain too much. Two years ago the Yankees brought in Sabathia and Teixeira and won a title. Last year they went out and got Granderson. Every off-season can't bring new all-stars. On top of that, while I can't get excited about Russell Martin's bat anymore, I'll take any defense behind the plate over Jorge Posada. Feliciano and Soriano make excellent bullpen additions, the bridge to Mariano is probably the strongest it's been in years.

Questions: Who's the fifth starter?

Answers: Fifth starter? Who's the fourth starter, or even the 3rd starter when Hughes gets hurt (which you know he will)? For that matter, what happens if Burnett can't find it again? So basically, I only really know who the first starter is.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. The whole line-up except Gardner (and now Martin I guess, although I have to think/hope Jesus Montero will be up to taking Martin's job by May or June) put up double digit home runs last year. If Granderson can stay healthy, he and Gardner still bring some speed and I think Jeter has one more .300 season left in him. The Yankees would dominate my pee-wee baseball league, or a slow pitch softball league.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. CC Sabathia and then look out below. I am in no way convinced that AJ Burnett is anything but done, nor am I convinced that Phil Hughes can stay healthy or pitch to a sub-4 ERA. You may be able to convince me that Bartolo Colon is, in fact, still alive, but that's about it.

Closing Thought: Can I be honest? I think my Yankee fandom is probably the only thing that kept New York out of third or even fourth place for me. I hate this team's starting pitching so much, I can't get over it.

Prediction: Second place, I hope.

Baltimore Orioles
Speaking of guys who belong in the hall of fame, let's take a quick look at Vladimir Guerrero. A .320 career average (which includes 13 seasons over .300 , 13!) 2427 hits, 10 seasons of over 100 RBI, 179 career steals, 436 home runs, a fantastic defensive right fielder in his prime. I could go on and on. I'm not breaking any news saying Vlad is going to the Hall, but I was a little surprised to see that he looks like a first ballot no-brainer.

Off-season: What happened here? Seriously. I just looked at the Baltimore depth chart, where did all these guys come from? I knew about Vlad Guerrero, and I think I'd heard about Derrek Lee, but when did Mark Reynolds happen? and Justin Duchscherer? and JJ Hardy? I don't even know where to start, but let's start with Reynolds. Mark Reynolds hit .198 last year playing in a pretty large ballpark and still hit 32 home runs. Now, if he hits .198 again, they'll have to bench him at some point, he's playing in a real division now. But, if he gets even marginally better, he'll hit 40 home runs. Pretty good pick up.

Questions: Can Vladimir Guerrero stay healthy? Can Brian Roberts? Does Derrek Lee have anything left?

Answers: I think so and probably not. Lee hit .306 and had a big year in 2009, so last year could just be one bad year, but he's 35 now. I wouldn't bet on a big bounce back, maybe a little one, something like .270/25/90.

My Favorite Thing: Lots to like about Baltimore's line-up if they stay healthy. I already mentioned all the new guys, and I think being on a decent team for once could breath some life back into Nick Markakis.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching concerns me a little. I think Jake Arrieta should be pretty good one day, but it doesn't look like he's there yet. Kevin Gregg doesn't impress me as a closer. Brian Matusz was pretty ordinary overall last year (4.30 ERA, 10-12), but he was great down the stretch (6-1 in August and September, 2.43 ERA in August, 1.89 in September). Not bad pitching exactly, just unreliable.

Closing Thought: I don't know if Baltimore has a full winning season in them, but I'd be willing to put decent money on the Orioles being in first place on June 1st.

Prediction: Third place, lots of upside.

Tampa Bay Rays
Opening Thought: Nothing in baseball over the last four years or so has been more predictable then the inevitable break-up of the first good Tampa team, but it's still kind of sad to watch. It would be less sad if Carl Crawford was a Yankee right now like he's supposed to be.

Off-season: Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and Carlos Pena are all gone, replaced by the likes of Johnny Damon, Kyle Farnsworth and Dan Johnson. Even though they won the division, Tampa wasn't super impressive last year, and now their roster is noticeably worse. That's not great.

Questions: How much can the Rays get out of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon?

Answers: Probably not a whole lot. I liked both of them as possible DH's for American League teams, but both of them on the same team makes no sense. Neither one of them is up to playing left field this year.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. David Price was probably the rightful AL Cy Young last year (2.72 ERA, 19-6). Some people seem to think he can't do that again, but I don't see why not. I like Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. So, even though James Shields has always been overrated (5.18 ERA last year, yuck), Tampa's rotation, as a whole, should be pretty good to excellent.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: That whole Damon/Ramirez thing could easily fit here, but don't forget about the bullpen. Anytime the words "Kyle Farnsworth" and "counting on" are in the same sentence for your team, bad things are a comin'.

Closing Thought: Tampa isn't a bad team exactly, they're just in a rough division. The Rays could probably win the central.

Prediction: Fourth place, but these are all good teams and pitching wins games. The Rays could easily be better than Baltimore and certainly can out-pitch the Yankees (at least for the first 6 or 7 innings). Some upside here too.

Toronto Blue Jays
Opening Thought: "Attention Canada! I am Barney from America, and I am here to fix your backward-ass country. Number one, get real money. I don't know what board game this came from..."

Off-season: The only addition worth noting was closer Frank Francisco, and it seems he's already hurt. I've always said pitcher injuries before the season even starts never end well. The Jays also added Octavio Dotel and John Rauch. It's a veritable cornucopia of guys who would terrify me if they were in my team's bullpen.

Questions: Can Aaron Hill and Adam Lind come back? Can Jose Bautista hit 50 home runs again? How good is J.P. Arencibia?

Answers: I'm not sure they can, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO and really good I think. Arencibia hit .301 with 30+ homers in triple A last year. Lots of good young catchers around baseball right now, I hope Jesus Montero turns out to be one of them.

My Favorite Thing: Toronto can hit. Even if Hill and Lind only get halfway back, and even if Bautista comes back down to, say, 30 home runs, they're still pretty good. Rajai Davis (50 steals last year) and Juan Rivera (30 home run power if he can ever stay healthy) make nice additions to what should be a pretty solid line-up.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. What's the record for blown leads by a team in one season?

Closing Thought: I didn't mention Toronto's starting pitching. I don't love it, I don't hate it. The AL East isn't really the division you want to be in when you're trying to break-in a bunch of young pitchers. Expect some dominating performances mixed in with a lot of severe beatings.

Prediction: Last place. Toronto isn't really a bad team either, but somebody has to finish last in this division.

World Series Prediction: Philly over Boston in six. The Phillies just have too much pitching and more than enough offense to back it up. Boston should be pretty beat up after a tough year in the AL East, while, in contrast, the Phillies can dominate their division with one ace tied behind their back.