2016 Election at the Jersey Shore

I wasn't planning on saying anything about the 2016 election for a while because, first of all, I tried predicting who would get the Republican nomination in 2012.  I picked Haley Barbour, and remember that time that Haley Barbour didn't even run?  I also wasn't going to say anything about 2016 for a while because it's 2013 right now and are you fucking serious?  

But, according to cable news, it's definitely time to start talking 2016.  Chris Matthews almost pissed his pants on live TV a couple of weeks ago when something happened that made him think Hillary Clinton was definitely running.  It even distracted him from Anthony Weiner for like five minutes.  Meanwhile, Fox News is like 2 steps away from having Rand Paul followed around by a reality TV camera crew at all times.  So, that's the way it is.  This is happening.

Well, this is happening in a minute.  But first, what's with all the outrage about Anthony Weiner?  Matthews held what would be best described as a week-long penis vigil on his show about it.  Meanwhile, Matthews' two favorite Presidents (Clinton and Kennedy) nailed interns like it was their job.  Kennedy seriously might have thought it was his job.  I'm not saying Anthony Weiner isn't gross, I'm just saying that if you're going to get outraged about this stuff (which I'm not), actually banging the interns seems worse to me.

Anyway, Republicans first.  For starters, I don't think Jeb Bush runs.  He's never seemed super interested to me, and he's had the opportunity to watch his dad and his brother be President for a total of 12 years.  Even if you hate the President, you have to admit that guy has a tough job most days, and I can't imagine watching two family members try to do it for 12 years has left Jeb with much of a taste for it.

I know these early front-runners rarely end up winning, but I do like Chris Christie for this.  People say Christie can't get the nomination, but I totally disagree.  Christie would wind up in the same position as Romney was in last time.  He'll be in a primary with Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and five other lunatics fighting to be named king of the clown car.  Santorum, Bachmann, Cain and Perry made Mitt look sane, reasoned, even smart.  And Gingrich was nice enough to make Romney seem like not that much of a dick.  

And by the way, Christie makes a pretty solid general election candidate.  I don't know a lot about Chris Christie in terms of what he actually knows, but if he turns out to be kind of dumb, that's not really going to hurt him in Republican primaries, or even that much in the general.  Meanwhile, I know Christie does all the superficial things that people love in Presidential candidates.  He talks tough, he doesn't take shit from anyone and he treats the press with the contempt that they've earned over the last 15 years.  I can't wait for him to go on Fox and sucker punch Sean Hannity.  

Also, if the Republican brand is anything, it's anti-government.  Specifically, the Federal government.  Ask yourself how the Republicans get the useful idiots in the tea party, who are mostly middle class people who, like almost everyone, are one lay-off from the poverty line, to protest against things like health care for poor people and slightly higher taxes for the wealthy.  They do it by equating everything they don't like to a robbery of freedom.  And since nobody is dumb enough to actually believe that more health care = less freedom, they inject the Federal government into the middle of the equation, so it's more health care + Federal government involvement = less freedom.  And that shit works like a charm.

So, if you're looking for a nominee from the everything the Federal government does = less freedom party, you may want to look for someone who isn't, ya know, currently holding a position in the Federal government.

And finally, if Christie ran against Hillary Clinton, I would absolutely vote for Chris Christie.  You can write that one down now.  Look, I even stopped calling him Governor Fatpants.  I will not vote for Hillary Clinton.  If Hillary Clinton, Rand Paul and a half-eaten meatball sandwich were running in a three way election, I'd vote for the sandwich.

You might ask, "hey Sean, you've always been a Ron Paul guy, so why no love for Rand?"  I just don't buy it.  People think Rand is a conviction libertarian like his dad, but I haven't seen enough evidence to believe it.  Ron Paul was never a serious Presidential candidate because he cared more about his beliefs than he did about winning, and you can't have it both ways.  Rand's level of ambition makes me think he's just another regular Republican who's trying to trade on his dad's name for extra votes by being a faux-libertarian and hoping people will believe it.  I don't believe it.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

Where were we? Oh yeah, luckily for me, I don't think I'll get the chance to choose between Hillary Clinton and a half-eaten sandwich because I don't think she'll get the nomination.  She's in exactly the same position she was in eight years ago.  How did that work out?  Now she's eight years older, eight years less exciting and eight years more oh my god why won't she just go away.  

First of all, for every independent voter who loves Hillary Clinton, there's an independent voter like me who wouldn't vote for Hillary Clinton if you threatened me with violence.  A Clinton/Christie election puts people like me, who sprinted away from the Republicans once the tea people showed up, back in play.  Bad times for Democrats.  

Also, the far left doesn't like Hillary that much either.  Hillary Clinton isn't just an establishment candidate, she's THE establishment.  How does that play at a time when everyone hates the government (for both actual and made-up reasons)?  Not well, I think.  I'm not saying Hillary can't win, she's certainly the favorite, but I wouldn't put my money on her.

So who does get the Democratic nomination?  That's a tough one.  Normally the sitting Vice President would be a strong favorite.  And it's not like Joe Biden has never expressed any interest in running for President.  But, unfortunately, he's Joe Biden, so that's almost definitely not going to happen.  

What about Democratic Governors?  Can you even name a Democratic Governor?  I can name Duval Patrick (he's still a Governor, right?), but he really doesn't feel like a President to me.  Not everyone is cut out for the big chair, ya know?  Other than the Governor of the state I currently live in, I couldn't name another Democratic Governor, and I feel like most other people couldn't either.

Democratic members of Congress?  Yikes.  If Harry Reid ever runs for President, we should all probably kill ourselves just to be safe.  The Democratic nominee has to come from somewhere, but if he/she comes from Congress, it has to be someone who hasn't been there very long.  Which brings me to my pick.  Cory Booker.

Twenty years ago Booker would have been easily dismissed as way too inexperienced, but that's not the way it is anymore.  Barack Obama proved that if we like someone enough we're not willing to wait four or eight years while he gets more experience.  And if you hate Barack Obama, then I would submit to you that the fact that we're talking about Ted Cruz and Rand Paul for 2016 prove the same point.

Cory Booker is probably going to be a Senator soon, but when 2016 rolls around he won't have been in the Senate long enough to get that Senate stink all over him.  He's got executive experience as a mayor, and he's the mayor of an actual city, where people live, not some podunk middle-of-nowhere nightmare like Wasilla, Alaska.  And from what I hear he's a good mayor too.  Booker's good on TV, seems smart, he's generally pretty likable but he's also tough enough to not take the Republicans' shit.  

Plus, wouldn't an all-Jersey Christie/Booker election be pretty fun?  I feel like it would.  And as a citizen I'd like this election because neither one of these guys terrifies me, like a certain Mitt Romney did.  I think both of them would at least be an adequate President.  Imagine having two decent choices in a Presidential election.  Has that ever happened before?  The 2008 election doesn't qualify because of Sarah Palin.  1992 or 1996 maybe?  I can't remember if Bob Dole was really a decent candidate or not.  I'm digressing. 

Anyway, that's my call.  I don't know which side of the things I'd like to see happen/things I actually think will happen line I'm on here, but I feel pretty good about these picks.  So we're probably looking at Ted Cruz/Rand Paul vs. Joe Biden/Anthony Weiner in 2016.  Everybody get a helmet.

Election Night: Part 2

Welcome back to part 2!  If you don't know the difference between "too close to call" and "too early to call" just turn on your TV and people will explain it to you over and over again.

9:00PM: Obama wins New York, and also stuff happened in a bunch of other states nobody cares about.

9:01PM: Elizabeth Warren is "leading" but it's too early to call.  I'm not surprised it's taking a while to count the votes in Massachusetts considering I filled my ballot out with a pencil today.  Recently they invented these things called computers, I bet they could come in handy with voting.

9:03PM: MSNBC just called the overall majority in the House of Representatives for the Republicans. Not awesome news, but not surprising.

9:06PM: Florida looks really, really close.  Virginia still looks pretty good for Romney.  Still not a lot of votes in from Ohio.  I would still describe the mood at MSNBC as "optimistic", while the mood at Fox is much more "uh oh".  As always, the mood at CNN continues to be "hey look at these fucking graphics!"

9:11PM: Fox reporter describing the Virginia Senate race - "people either like George Allen, or they like Tim Kaine".  Just incredible analysis from Fox there.

9:20PM: Fox is already talking about what paths Mitt has to victory without winning Ohio.  I told you, uh oh.

9:21PM: Pennsylvania called for Obama a few minutes ago, and he won Michigan too.  Electoral map closing in quickly on Mitt Romney.

9:23PM: Whenever Anderson Cooper says "balance of power" CNN runs a balance of power graphic before he can keep talking.  It's like saying the secret word in Pee Wee's playhouse.  CNN also apparently has control over the lights at the top of the Empire State Building.

9:25PM: "Obama wins Wisconsin" - Fox's Brett Baier, while looking around for something to slit his wrists with.

9:28PM: Obama won New York, shouldn't that be it.  I don't understand why lesser states get a say, or at least an equal say.  New York should get at least 269 electoral votes.

9:31PM: For weeks Fox has been pushing the idea that Romney could win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  Now that those states are off the board, they're back to telling me that Florida, Ohio and Virginia were the only states we were ever really talking about.  Fox can't even accurately report on their own reporting.

9:35PM: Every time John King tries to make a point, Blitzer interrupts him to go to a reporter on the scene in whatever location he was talking about.  These guys are going to throw punches before the night ends.

9:39PM: On Fox, Karl Rove is desperately trying to call Florida for Mitt Romney.  I kind of feel bad for Karl.  Can we all just tell him Mitt won?  I know he doesn't deserve our kindness, but I think we need to take some pity on him.

9:44PM: Democrats are winning Senate seats left and right.  Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts.  Once again, they could have won most of these seats with even moderately useful candidates.

9:49PM: John Boehner on Fox - "I don't care what these fucking people voted for, we are not raising taxes ever.  You hear me?!?  EVER!!!"

9:51PM: If you ever see CNN's John King out in the real world, you'll notice that he always carries a giant touch screen around with him.  He's incapable of communicating without it.

9:54PM: They just called the Massachusetts Senate race for Elizabeth Warren.  I didn't always hate Scott Brown, but the campaign he ran this time around was really appalling.  He deserved to lose and he did.

10:02PM: Fox is now running dream scenarios for a Romney win.  One likely scenario, Barack Obama abducted by aliens.

10:06PM: Claire McCaskill kept her Senate seat over Todd "legitimate rape" Akin.  This Senate thing has really turned into a total mess for Republicans.  If only they could have anticipated that a majority of Americans don't like rape.

10:13PM: My current state has legalized medical marijuana.  "Ouch, my cataracts!" said every college student in Massachusetts.

10:15PM: Breaking news.  Mitt Romney just removed Linda McMahon from his binders full of women.

10:17PM: CNN appears to be circling around calling Florida for Obama.  Let's see if the Fox studio is on fire yet.

10:20PM: Things at Fox are looking grim as Megyn just somberly called New Mexico for the President.

10:24PM: NO quit in Karl Rove.  He is explaining the shit out of why Mitt Romney is going to win Ohio.  He's not mentioning that Ohio doesn't matter if Obama wins Florida.

10:26PM: Megyn Kelly on Fox - "Is this just math you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better, or is it real?".  That pretty much sums it up.

10:27PM: Matthews in response to Rachel Maddow saying we're going to hear from Elizabeth Warren soon - "why are we hearing from these people before the concession speech?".  Um, how about because she's a Senator elect and she'll speak whenever the fuck she wants.

10:33PM: Interestingly, CNN still hasn't called Wisconsin.  Blitzer doesn't call anything until his beard says so.

10:44PM: Obama wins Minnesota, eh?

10:49PM: Arizona for Romney.  I wasn't sure if Romney's self-deportation policy was going to be tough enough for the show me your papers state, but I guess it was good enough.

10:51PM: Megyn Kelly is now just aimlessly wandering around the Fox set while giggling and touching stuff.

10:58PM: Quick note on Romney possibly winning the popular vote but losing the election.  The same thing happened to Al Gore in 2000.  I've always said Democrats need to suck it up and stop bitching about it, same message to Republicans.  That's how our system works.

11:00PM: California, Washington and Hawaii for the President.  This is the point in 2008 when Senator Obama officially became President Elect Obama.  It was a really great moment.  A win this year won't be quite as exciting, but it'll still be the better choice.  If Mitt Romney pulls out a surprising win, I honestly hope I'm wrong about him and he turns out to be an excellent President.

OK, I'm bailing now to watch the Daily Show and the Colbert Report.  They do the comedy for me.  As I check out, things look pretty good for the President in Ohio and Florida, and he really only needs one of those.  Both states are really close though, could be a while.

Election Night: Part 1

I'm trying to make up for the fact that I missed the late debate by documenting election night.  I'll be flipping back and forth between the three cable networks.  I don't know where I'll spend the most time, but I know that I want to be watching the losing side whenever they call an important state, because that's where it's the most fun (I mean, if you like despair, which I do).  Enjoy!

6:02PM: Every time I turned on Fox today, they were talking about voter fraud or the new black panthers.  I think it's very telling that every other channel spent the day occasionally telling you what you can do if your voting rights are being curtailed in some way while, conversely, Fox kept promoting their voter fraud email hotline.  You get the sense Republicans aren't too optimistic about tonight.  We'll see.

6:05PM: Matthews on MSNBC - "Mitch McConnell is the firewall against the crazies".  We may need a little more help than that.

6:09PM: Over on Fox Brett Baier is telling me about Virginia counties.  Who let him in the building tonight? He's an idiot.  And Megyn Kelly's here too.  Maybe they're saving the smart people for when the votes actually start coming in.

6:11PM: Well here's Chris Wallace anyway.  He just called Karl Rove "the architect of George W. Bush's Presidential victories".  Yes, congratulations Karl on building the most amazing shit sandwich we've ever seen.

6:17PM: CNN already has John King playing with a magic wall.  Anderson Cooper is also standing by what I'm going to call the wall sized TV screen of nonsense.  At least the dopes at Fox have a desk.

6:20PM: CNN's Erin Burnett is in Ohio.  Her and her pretty eyes say we might know who won Ohio around midnight.

6:22PM: CNN is reporting that Florida had a problem with about 35,000 ballots that were not printed correctly, so now volunteers have to transpose those faulty ballot results onto good ballots so they can be scanned and counted.  Really Florida? Twelve years later and you are still fucking awful at this?  Just understand that we all hate you.

6:24PM: CNN is hard to look away from.  Right now some guy is standing in the middle of what appears to be a virtual fake Senate chamber where they're using the individual fake virtual desks to display different issues that the next President will have an impact on.  I can't do it justice with words, you really had to see it.

6:28PM: While some MSNBC lady reports from what appears to be an empty Mitt Romney auditorium in Boston, someone in the background appears to be playing smooth jazz.  Rachel Maddow noticed too and called it the "we don't know yet jazz".

6:31PM: Steve Schmidt is on MSNBC sadly recounting being on the wrong side of the 2008 electoral beatdown dished out by the Obama campaign.  He's talking about the importance of Mitt Romney's impending concession speech.  He may not have put it exactly that way.  He added "winning is a lot more fun than losing".  Glad he's here.

6:35PM: Fox's Bill Hemmer is reporting from the "Bill"board.  Ohhhh, I see what they did there.  Hemmer eventually added "red is Republican, blue is Democrat".  That's super helpful, thanks.

6:38PM: Megyn Kelly just told me that they have Charles Krauthammer coming up.  I don't know if that was meant as a warning or a threat, but either way, thanks Megyn.  Let's see what CNN is up to.

6:44PM: Summary of analysis from all three networks so far.  If the people who would vote for (insert candidate here) actually come out to vote, (insert candidate here) will win the night.

6:48PM: Alex Wagner is covering Senate races for MSNBC.  She says a recent poll had Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren.  That makes me grumpy, but Alex is kind of adorable so it's OK.

6:52PM: CNN just ran a montage of soundbites from past elections.  You know, back when they were a news network.

6:54PM: I've been watching CNN for three minutes now and all I've seen is different montages.  Maybe they just gave up and went home.

6:57PM: MSNBC is reporting tonight from "Democracy Plaza".  That's right across the street from Fox's famous "Fascism Square".

6:58PM: By the way, I'm not calling CNN's magic wall a "magic wall" because I think it's funny or clever, I don't think that.  I'm calling it a "magic wall" because the people who work at CNN keep calling it that and I think they're morons.

6:59PM: I'm going to Fox for the 7:00PM results because I want to see how excited they get about Romney winning Kentucky (turned out, sadly, not very).

7:01PM: Romney won Kentucky and Indiana, Obama won Vermont.  There you go.  Fox is still sticking with Kelly and Baier.  Where's Shepherd Smith? Is he being held hostage somewhere?

7:07PM: CNN exit polls in Virginia look pretty craptastic for the President.  Good thing he doesn't really need it.

7:12PM: MSNBC has a magic wall too, but you don't hear them yapping about it the whole time, do you CNN?

7:18PM: Related note.  I didn't get my "I voted" sticker when I voted today.  What's up with that?  I heard the same thing on Twitter from other people in my area.  People in Massachusetts aren't getting our "I voted" stickers.  If that's not a good enough reason to vote Scott Brown out of office, I don't know what is.

7:21PM: I just hit the rare triple commercial situation.  What should I call that?  It's really the shittiest thing that could happen on my TV right now, so I'm going to call it a Gingrich.

7:24PM: MSNBC's election night anchor desk is so big Congress just granted it three electoral votes.  The Romney campaign has already dispatched Paul Ryan to give a speech, but I'm pretty sure it's Obama country.

7:29PM: Fox's Kirsten Powers says she would read something into the exit polls if the exit polls are right.  Wait, what?  Wouldn't everybody read something into the exit polls if we knew they were right?  She's lucky Kirsten is one of my favorite names.

7:31PM: Megyn Kelly called West Virginia for Romney and added "the President's stances on energy policy and social issues are very unpopular there".  Also, the President's continued insistence on being black is very unpopular there.

7:35PM: Fox is making Chris Wallace sit in a dimly lit room with Karl Rove and Joe Trippi all night.  He must have really pissed somebody off.

7:39PM: MSNBC's Chuck Todd - "the joke in Ohio is that it's five Ohios".  I'm pretty sure Chuck just made that joke up.

7:48PM: Bernie Sanders won another term in the Senate.  Fox added "that's right, a socialist in the Senate, that's Barack Obama's America".

7:50PM: Fox is now covering Twitter activity.  Fox viewers have no earthly idea what they're talking about.  Three million grandparents just called their grandkids and asked "what's a tweeter?"

7:54PM: Fox just called Georgia for Romney.  I never understand how Republicans do so well in Georgia.  I know it's got a lot of rednecks, but Atlanta's a pretty big city.  Shouldn't it at least be a swing state?

8:00PM: Obama wins Connecticut, Delaware, Washington DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine (3 of the 4 electoral votes...why do you have to be special Maine?) and Rhode Island.  Romney gets Oklahoma.

8:03PM: Alabama polls closed at 8, but they don't have internet there yet so we don't have official calls until they send a redneck in a pickup truck up to the CNN studio with the actual numbers.

8:08PM: Four crucial Senate races leaning Democrat.  Congratulations Republicans, you moroned your way right out of a Senate majority.

8:11PM: Ohhhhh, Shep Smith is on the actual Fox network, that's why the cable channel gets team dumbass.

8:15PM: O'Reilly just showed up on Fox.  Where did he come from?  Is he only allowed to start talking at 8PM?  He thinks if Obama wins it's because he's pandering to people who want the government to do stuff for them.  So true.  It was really unfair of the President to campaign on the idea that he might actually, ya know, help some people.

8:18PM: Sounds like O'Reilly's leaving already.  That was quick, and weird.  That's what she said.

8:20PM: Apparently Indiana voters are rejecting the idea that rape babies are a gift from god.  Better start re-working that platform before the next election.

8:22PM: Dave adds "instead of Hofstra, I wish I graduated from Electoral College".

8:23PM: CNN is doing a suspenseful countdown to when Arkansas polls close, because Arkansas is the only state that closes at 8:30.  How long before each state closes at a slightly different time so they all get their moment in the spotlight?  "ohhh, its 8:36, one more minute until Illinois polls close!"

8:28PM: I haven't checked in on MSNBC in a while.  It's always good to check back from time to time to make sure Matthews is still conscious.

8:31PM: Chris Murphy beat the wrestling lady in the Connecticut Senate race.  I feel a little better about my country just now.

8:33PM: Me, just now - "zombie JFK would do very well with Irish Catholics...and zombies".  How did that come up?  I don't have to explain myself to you.

8:37PM: On Fox, Huckleberry is talking about how Barack Obama's been trampling all over religious liberties for four years.  I wish I could go on TV and report things that only happen in my imagination as actual news.

8:40PM: Almost another Gingrich, but MSNBC saved the day.  I swear running a campaign which included Sarah Palin replaced every other emotion Steve Schmidt used to be able to feel with sadness.

8:46PM: Ken Blackwell on MSNBC - "nobody's out there trying to suppress the vote".  Everyone on MSNBC's panel took turns telling him how he was wrong about that.  He agreed that trying to reduce early voting was bad, but still somehow defended the current Ohio Secretary of State for doing it.

8:52PM: Do you think Linda McMahon will run for the Senate again someday?  I feel like she can't stop herself.

OK, end part one.  I'll start part two in a few minutes and post it whenever we have a winner or I have to go to sleep because I have work tomorrow.

The Man Who Knew Too Much

Hasta la vista, Jon Huntsman.  Turns out being the candidate for people who think Mitt Romney is just a little too exciting for them isn't the best strategy.  I'll always remember the time I heard Jon Huntsman say something I immediately forgot.  How could a guy with "hunt" right there in his name not do better in the Republican party?

Seriously though, the fact that the only Republican candidate who was even remotely qualified to be President is also the only Republican candidate who never got near the top of the polls is just another in a long series of examples of what's wrong with the current Republican party.  Anyone who had a choice between Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum and decided that Santorum was the way to go should be immediately stripped of all voting rights for at least 2 elections.

Tonight's debate is brought to you by Fox "News" and moderated by Fox's Bret Baier, with questions from Juan Williams, some lady named Kelly and some guy who looks like an actor whose name I can't quite remember.  Why not just have those idiots from Fox & Friends do the debates?  At least that would be hilarious.  Anyway, courtesy of America's worst news channel, it's yet another Republican debate.

9:01PM: South Carolina does not like Ron Paul.  That's only going to make him more surly. 

9:02PM: Baier just reminded us that all of these candidates have done this "15 times".  Way to remind the audience how insanely unnecessary tonight is Bret.

9:04PM: Newt claims it was really big of him to stay positive all the way through the campaign, until he decided not to anymore.  Clearly, Newt sees campaign positivity the same way he sees wives.  He sticks with it until he doesn't feel like it anymore, and that's good enough.

9:05PM: Newt goes on to claim that his negative attacks on Romney are actually some kind of altruistic attempt to give Mitt a chance to answer these questions now instead of later.  He really is a crazy person.

9:08PM: Mitt just gave us his entire life story in 90 seconds.  You wouldn't think a person could actually do that, but Mitt is one of the 10 least interesting people in the world.  He nailed it, with time to spare.

9:09PM: Apparently, Rick Perry visited a South Carolina town with a steel mill that Romney's company "picked over" and shut down.  The question, by the way, was what regulations would Perry put into place in order to prevent what he calls "vulture capitalism".  His answer?  Less regulations.  Wait, what? 

9:11PM: Mitt is blaming his steel mill closing on China.  It took 11 minutes without Huntsman before somebody said something stupid about China.  Frankly, I can't believe it took that long.  Mitt also pointed out that his company opened a steel mill in Indiana.  I'm sure that makes people in South Carolina feel better about the whole thing.

9:13PM: Embedded in two minutes of Romney nonsense was a quick story about how his company closed a plant with union workers, then opened a new non-union plant.  And if the union workers didn't want to work in the new non-union plant, well, fuck them.  That pretty much sums it up.

9:16PM: Once again, Santorum defends Ron Paul's accusations about Rick being corrupt not by saying they're false, but by pointing out that his corruption was reported by the liberal media.  Stupid liberals, always saying true things about Rick Santorum. 

9:19PM: For the second time in the first 19 minutes, Romney just basically told Baier that he's going to say whatever the hell he wants and take as much time as he needs and Baier can suck it (I may be paraphrasing).  Someone's feeling pretty confident.

9:20PM: Romney says violent felons should never be able to vote again.  I'm pretty sure he's wrong about that.  I don't really care that much, but he's still wrong.

9:23PM: I just spent three minutes not listening to Romney because I was googling old bald actors trying to figure out who the third question guy looks like.  Couldn't find it.  I'm going with John Malkovich, but it's not quite right.

9:28PM: Twitter just asked Romney to convince us that he won't change his views on issues again.  It's not a good sign that Twitter has asked the best question of the night so far.  Then Romney said one of the stupidest things Republicans say all the time.  He believes in equal rights for everyone, but not gay marriage.  See, I have to believe Republicans don't understand what "equal" means.  Giving people less rights than other people is the exact opposite of equal.  You don't believe in equal rights Mitt, stop saying you do.

9:31PM: Perry says South Carolina is at war with the Federal government and gets a huge cheer from the crowd.  I know Rick Perry doesn't know anything about history, but even Rick should probably know that South Carolina isn't the best place to talk about a state being at war with the Federal government.  Perry also doubled down on his nonsense claim that the Obama administration is at war with religion.  I could go into a whole thing about this, but it's just easier to say that Perry is an idiot.

9:33PM: Santorum says being out of work for 99 weeks causes people to lose certain skills.  His solution to this quandary is to stop paying people unemployment benefits for that long.  I think Republicans believe that if you stop paying unemployment benefits to people, jobs will magically appear for them to do. 

9:35PM: Gingrich, once again, suggests that unemployment benefits should be tied to some kind of job training. For what jobs, Newt?  Also, Newt took this first visit to the south as an opportunity to suggest that Barack Obama is lazy and doesn't believe in work.  It's too late to castrate Newt, isn't it?  Oh well.

9:37PM: I don't know if Ron Paul left or if Baier is just ignoring him.

9:38PM: Romney is openly launching into parts of his stump speech whenever they ask him a question.

9:39PM: Malkovich keeps asking Ron Paul about the cuts he's proposing to "defense spending".  Ron keeps responding by telling Malkovich he doesn't understand the difference between actual defense spending on the military and ridiculous wasteful spending.  He came this close to calling Malkovich stupid.  I told you he'd be more surly tonight.

9:42PM: Rick Perry is still suggesting a 20% flat tax.  Newt outbids him with his proposal of a 15% flat tax.  Ron wins by bidding 0%.  I thought you couldn't go below one dollar...wait, what show is this?

9:43PM: Kelly just asked Mitt about releasing his tax records.  I'm sure he's been paying his taxes, just like humans do.  He says he'll release his tax records around April. 

9:44PM: Williams gets booed by the South Carolina crowd just for mentioning that Mitt's dad was born in Mexico.  Quick note for any friends and relatives who are reading this.  If I ever talk about moving to the south for any reason, please stop me.  Use lethal force if you have to.

9:47PM: Santorum takes the long way to suggesting that maybe black people wouldn't be so poor if they would just stop having so many babies out of wedlock.  Huge cheer from the crowd, obviously.  People watching will say he wasn't just talking about black people, but Juan's question was pretty clearly about poverty in the African-American community, so you tell me.

9:49PM: Juan throws my man Ron a softball about the racial disparity in drug laws, arrests and imprisonment.  Ron correctly pointed out the discrimination in the judicial system, as he's done before, but then he ended by listing a few things Martin Luther King Jr. would agree with him on.  Calm down, Ron.  I like you, but I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be Dr. King's favorite Congressman.

9:52PM: Williams asked Newt if he can at least see how his suggestion about school kids being janitors in their own schools is insulting to Americans.  Newt's answer?  "No, I don't".  Newt turned it into some weird argument about how only elites would oppose his brilliant child janitors idea.  That might sound really crazy, but you have to remember that when Newt says "elites", he means "people with brains".

9:54PM: The crowd is going nuts over Newt's thinly veiled racism.  It's like a klan rally, and Newt's the grand wizard.  My favorite claim of his was how Barack Obama has put more people on food stamps than any other President.  Right, people were just sitting around, comfortably being able to buy their own food, and President Obama stormed into their homes, took all their money and forced them to need assistance so they can eat. 

10:01PM: Talking about Pakistan, Ron makes the crazy suggestion that we should maybe treat other countries the way we expect to be treated.  After five minutes of arguing about this, the crowd boos Ron pretty loudly for the suggestion.  This, by the way, is why I call these guys idiots whenever they try to argue that America is special and way better than everyone else.

10:06PM: Baier has no control over the candidates, the crowd, anything.

10:09PM: Mitt proposes having a military so strong that nobody would ever think of testing it.  I'm not sure how he thinks this would help with terrorism, but that's his plan.

10:12PM: I have a headache.  Can we just stipulate that four of these guys want to go to war with as many muslim countries as they can find? 

10:15PM: Ron points out that there's a difference between the taliban and al qaeda.  Newt and the Ricks look pretty confused.

10:17PM: Mitt says it's OK for the President to have the ability to indefinitely detain American citizens, because Mitt promises he won't abuse that power.  Well, if Mitt and President Obama promise not to abuse their authority, then I guess it's OK.  I just hope they didn't have their fingers crossed.

10:19PM: The candidates appear to be openly mocking the moderators at this point.  Baier asked Ron if he'd like to take 30 seconds to talk about this indefinite detention thing, Ron informed Bret that he'll be taking a minute.

10:21PM: How would Rick Perry address the problems in the housing market?  Come on, you know this one.  That's right!  Tax cuts.  There's nothing that can't be fixed by tax cuts, as long as you're already rich.  And if you're not already rich, well, fuck you!

10:23PM: Question lady Kelly becomes easily my favorite by summing up Perry's two minutes of nonsense perfectly by pointing out that tax cuts don't count as doing something to address the housing market.

10:26PM: Newt just referred to himself as "a historian" again.  HA!  Newt's still really excited about how Chile does their social security system.  Hey Newt, if you like Chile so much, why don't you just move to Chile.  Seriously Newt, move to Chile, I'll buy your plane ticket.

10:29PM: Santorum just talked for three straight minutes.  I'm dizzy.

10:31PM: Newt says there are 185 separate bureaucracies that deal with low income people.  Newt would balance the budget by getting rid of all of them and block granting everything back to the states.  Or back to cities, or wherever.  The point is, when Newt's President, he does not want to deal with poor people.

10:33PM: Romney is still proposing his awesome idea of eliminating the capital gains tax on poor people and the middle class.  Somebody must have told him how stupid that sounds by now, he must just not be listening.

10:39PM: Mitt appears to be promising to sign whatever legislation the pro-gun lobby tells him to.  He's also in favor of all the laws we need to protect people, as long as we never pass any new gun laws ever again.

10:40PM: Juan asks Santorum about his second amendment bona fides.  Listen, I may not agree with him, but I'm pretty sure Santorum is all for guns.  Not being pro-gun enough is not one of the ways you should be attacking Rick Santorum.

10:42PM: During this whole gun argument, Santorum is kind enough to remind us that he's OK with the Federal government doing whatever it wants, as long as it's doing things that Rick agrees with.  Santorum is also laying out a pretty good plan to end gun manufacturing in this country.  He's talking about that like it would be a bad thing, but someone should probably look into Rick's plan to see if it would work. 

10:45PM: Mitt and Newt are arguing about false superPAC ads.  Funny how all these guys who supported unlimited money in campaigns apparently never thought that anyone other than themselves would actually get to take advantage of it.  Mitt's solution appears to be to allow donors to buy candidates directly.

10:48PM: Rick Perry just figured out that rates of immigration are tied to how well our economy is doing.  It was like watching the moment that a dog figures out that the tail he's been chasing is his.

10:50PM:  I think Newt just blamed immigrants for low test scores in schools.  I think that's a pretty good way to end things, Baier agrees.

Well, I was definitely more negative about tonight's debate than I've been about past debates.  In my defense, the candidates were quite a bit stupider tonight than they've been in the past.  See you next time.

The Newt Front-Runner

According to the TV, Newt Gingrich is now the front-runner for the Republican nomination in at least three different polls.  At first, I assumed this was some kind of horrible nightmare from which I cannot awake.  That was the most logical explanation, but it's becoming less and less likely.  This may actually be reality.

The funny thing about this (other than the thought of President Gingrich, which is both hilarious and terrifying) is how it happened.  Everyone knows the media loves the horse race.  Whenever someone new jumps to the top of the polls, every political news outfit freaks out like that person is the next FDR (or in the case of Fox "news", the next Saint Reagan), until the next week when they say something stupid and we all laugh them off the stage.

This time, as far as I could tell, the media went first.  After Herman Cain imploded, over and over again, I started hearing all this nonsense about how Newt was going to rise to the top of the polls.  Next thing you know, there's good ole Newt, right at the top.  Just like the media said!  I watch too much political news to think they actually got a prediction right, so all I can think is Republican primary voters heard these stories about Newt and thought "well, he ain't Mitt Romney, so why not?". 

And really, that's the lesson.  Republicans would try out a half-eaten breakfast as their potential nominee as long as it wasn't Mitt Romney.  This makes me a little more hopeful for the President's re-election changes, since, last time I checked, he isn't Mitt Romney either.

Hey look!  It's another debate!  The TV says this one's about foreign policy.  Ugh.  You may be thinking the same thing I was thinking when I saw this.."why do these people, at least 5 of whom don't know anything about anything, keep having debates about a complicated topic like foreign policy?" 

Well, you only have two choices, foreign policy or domestic policy.  The Republican party in 2011 only has one domestic policy, tax cuts...Tax Cuts!....TAAAAXXXXXXXX CUUUUUTTTTTTTSSSSSS!!!!!!!!  You can't get too many debates out of that.  So, here you go, another foreign policy debate between Huntsman, Paul, Romney and five idiots. 

8:00PM: CNN opens this foreign policy/national security debate with a super scary OH MY GOD YOU'RE ALL GONNA DIE IF YOU ELECT THE WRONG PRESIDENT montage.  Terrifying the audience is a great way to get them to make a rational decision.

8:02PM: Running the Olympics once doesn't make Mitt Romney an expert on foreign relations anymore than it makes him a world class downhill skier.

8:03PM: First bit of bad news, it looks like Blitzer will be doing the moderating again.  Last time he had no control, it was a total disaster.  I'm not looking forward to this.

8:04PM: Second bit of bad news, it looks like CNN has attempted to put together the whitest audience in the history of audiences and whiteness.  Considering this debate is taking place in Washington DC, that couldn't have been easy.

8:06PM: They're singing the national anthem before the debate.  Not the first time, probably not the last, but I'll be annoyed by it every time.

8:08PM: Blitzer keeps saying he'll "try" to do stuff.  Don't try Wolf, do!

8:10PM: Am I crazy, or was Rick Santorum balder when he was younger?  I could swear I remember a very balding Rick Santorum.

8:11PM: Blitzer made a joke about Wolf Blitzer being his real name.  Romney tried to capitalize by saying "I'm Mitt Romeny and, yes Wolf, that's my real first name too".  Except it's not.  His real first name is Willard.  What's wrong with him?  I never thought Romney would be the one on this stage who literally couldn't even get his name right. 

8:15PM: Talking about extending the Patriot Act, Gingrich says "all of us will be in danger for the rest of our lives".  Who invited the good news bear?

8:16PM: Ron Paul on the Patriot Act..."don't be willing to sacrifice liberty for security".  As usual, Ron is schooling these idiots.  This time he's kicking Newt's ass on civil liberties.  Newt believes the Patriot Act would have stopped Timothy McVeigh.  Ron's trying to explain that just because something might work doesn't make it Constitutional or legal.  Newt's not really following.

8:19PM: Bachmann just said something about mirandizing terrorists.  Is she still in this race?

8:22PM: Perry on the TSA..."I would privatize it as soon as I could and get rid of those unions."  Great idea!  Why have airport security people be accountable to the duly elected government of the people when they could be accountable to no one?  Also, how did unions get involved in this? 

8:24PM: Santorum is openly suggesting profiling muslims at airports.  Another fantastic idea!  But how will we know who the Muslims are?  We should probably make them get special tattoos or something.  Or we could just throw bacon at everyone who gets on a plane and see who gets really angry about it.  Oh but jewish people don't like bacon either.  This is hard.  Rick, help us, how do we know who the muslims are?

8:25PM: Ron Paul on the war on terrorism..."I don't remember voting on a declaration of war...terror isn't a person, it's a tactic."  Go get 'em Ron!

8:27PM: Cain just called Blitzer "Blitz".  I'll miss him when he's gone.

8:31PM:  Bachmann says we shouldn't stop giving Pakistan money, but only because if we don't, they might stop being our friend and start being China's friend.  I guess Rick Perry doesn't care about friends, because he's not giving Pakistan a dime.  But then they won't come to Michele's sweet sixteen! Damn you Rick!

8:33PM: Bachmann just called Perry's position "highly naive".  Uh oh, I think she's about to find out that you don't mess with Texas.  Rick looks mad.  Hmmm...he went pretty easy on her.  He may have taken a Valium before the debate.  Let's keep on eye on him.

8:35PM: Romney on Afghanistan..."we can't just write off a significant part of the world."  He forgot to add "...that has oil."  Then he said we need to bring Afghanistan into the 20th century.  Yeah, what's up with that country?  Why do they have all that rubble everywhere?  Get some roads, jerks!

8:38PM: Good point by Huntsman.  The President doesn't always have to listen to the Generals on the ground when it comes to war.  The President is the one in charge and he calls the shots.  Mitt says he would call the shots, by doing whatever the Generals tell him to do.

8:40PM: Newt's first complaint about the questions.  A Republican debate tradition like no other.  Then he follows up by complaining about the rules.  Also, his podium is too small and the food in his dressing room was far from adequate.

8:42PM: Santorum says radical islamists are just waiting us out.  So, I guess Santorum would just never withdraw troops from anywhere.  He's not suggesting colonizing Afghanistan, just visiting...forever.

8:48PM: Cain says he'd support Israel if they attacked Iran, as long as they had a good plan.  I'd like to hear what Herman would consider a good plan.  Wolf didn't ask, glad he's here.

8:49PM: Ron Paul on Israel..."if Israel decides to bomb something, that's their business, but they have to suffer the consequences."  Republican foreign policy debates should just be two hours of all the other candidates shutting up and listening to Ron.

8:52PM: Perry says we need to sanction the Iranian central bank to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.  I assume "sanction the national bank" is some kind of Rick Perry secret code for "bombing the shit out of the country".

8:53PM: Blitzer points out that sanctioning the Iranian central bank would essentially end Iranian oil exports and, ya know, cripple Europe's economy.  Newt sees this as an opportunity to sell Europe some of our own oil.  Wait, when did we get all this extra oil to sell to Europe?  Is Newt hiding oil somewhere and not telling us?

8:56PM: Ron Paul is openly laughing while Bachmann is talking about Israel.  Me too Ron.

8:57PM: Santorum just called Africa "a country on the brink".  Country...continent...whatever.   Rick points out the important part, which is making sure we force our values on anyone in Africa who wants our help.

8:59PM: Cain on aid to Africa..."it may be worth while to continue, it may not." Yes Herman, those are the two choices.

8:59PM: Ron Paul believes all foreign aid is worthless.  Say what you want about Ron, he doesn't hedge.

9:00PM: Romney implies that the President is cutting 1 trillion dollars from defense and putting it directly into Obamacare.  That's a good talking point.  Patently false, but a good talking point.

9:03PM: Newt says, if we were serious about oil, we would magically produce all the oil we need in the next year.  OK, he didn't use the word magically, but I can only assume magic is part of his plan.

9:07PM: Huntsman just talked for like two and a half minutes.  Are there any rules here?  Does Blitzer have any authority?

9:08PM: Perry just said (he said this in the last debate too) that he's been the Commander in Chief of 20,000 Texas National Guard troops.  I'm surprised he hasn't declared war on Oklahoma yet.

9:10PM: Perry just suggested making Congress part-time.  Yeah, because that's what we need, a Congress that does even less.  I know everyone right now is thinking Congress does way too much.

9:12PM: Santorum is willing to compromise on anything, as long as it's not raising taxes.  I'm pretty sure you can find a version of that statement on the RNC letterhead.

9:13PM: Question about entitlement reform.  How did we get here?  I thought we were talking about national security.  What is Blitzer doing?  I'm getting frustrated.  Somebody should confiscate Wolf's beard.

9:25PM: Rick Perry promises to shut down the Mexican border.  What does that mean?  How do you shut down a border?  It's not a Walmart.

9:26PM: Ron Paul's talking about how "the federal war on drugs is a total failure", and he just said he's for medical marijuana and treating drugs the way we treat alcohol.  I assume he means dealing with the stupid behaviors that come from abusing them, as opposed to just criminalizing the drugs.  I'm all for all of this.  Blitzer, of course, failed to follow-up, and the rest of the candidates ignored it.  Booooo!

9:30PM: Now Santorum is, once again, plugging his brilliant plan for 0% taxes on manufacturing corporations.  I still don't know how we got here from national security, but since it's an important tradition for all of my debate blogs, this is as good a time as any to point out that Rick Santorum is an idiot.

9:32PM: Newt proposes some kind of panel to decide which illegal immigrants get amnesty and which ones don't, including subtly suggesting (twice) that immigrants who belong to a church get to stay.  So...religiously based death panels for immigrants...got it.

9:34PM: Blitzer repeats Newt's idea that belonging to a church would be an important part of getting to stay here as an immigrant.  If only there were some kind of moderator at this debate to find out why the hell that would be a consideration.  Too bad.

9:36PM: We seem to be having a serious disagreement about kicking out most of the illegal immigrants or all of the illegal immigrants.  Perry had to step in as the voice of reason (yeah, seriously), pointing out that we would have to secure the border before a meaningful immigration policy would work.  Unfortunately, it still sounds like Rick wants to secure the border with predator drones.  So, half credit I guess.

9:44PM: Lots of great beards at this debate.  Just saying.

9:46PM: I'm becoming concerned that we might get through this whole debate without hearing about Cain's 999 plan.  What happened to you pizza man?  You used to be fun.

9:47PM: Perry suggests a no-fly zone over Syria as a way to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.  Um...OK.  Either Rick knows more about the middle east than I thought or he thinks Iran and Syria are the same country.  I'd say it's 50/50.

9:49PM: Huntsman says we need to be careful about taking sides in conflicts we don't fully understand (yes!), but then says our only interest in the middle east is Israel (arrgh!). 

9:50PM: Ron Paul suggests we should treat other countries the way we want to be treated.  Mitt quickly counters by making sure everyone understands that America is special and we can do whatever we want and just blow stuff up if other countries don't like it.  Mitt's always a puzzle because you never know if he actually believes anything he's saying. 

9:55PM: I think we're all in agreement that everyone's first trip abroad as President would be to Israel.  Except Ron, who, I assume, would never leave the country.

9:56PM: Perry says China is "not a country of virtues".  Way to grasp the nuance of foreign policy there Rick.

9:57PM: Cain says he was a ballistics analyst early in his career.  Do pizza companies have weapons?  Why didn't I know this?  Are the weapons pepperoni-based?

Once again, no closing statements.  That's always a missed opportunity to hear some stupid nonsense, but I guess we'll have to live without it.  Until next time, just remember, Newt Gingrich is leading the polls, so you probably want to start looking at houses in Canada, just in case.

Start Game

You might say that it's ridiculous to start talking about the 2012 election already, but you'd be wrong. First of all, a Republican controlled House working with a slim Democrat majority in the Senate and a Democrat President is already a perfect recipe for total gridlock. That's even more true now because so many Republicans have some sort of hatred derangement syndrome with this particular President. It's entirely possible that our government will just spend the next two years yelling at each other. The 2012 election may be the next thing that actually happens.

We already know who will be running for the Democrats. It's not possible to be crazy enough to mount a serious primary challenge against a sitting President while also being mainstream and sane enough for people to actually take you seriously. I'm sure we'll see a few people run for a while and take pot shots at the President from the left, but it won't amount to anything. That leaves us with the $64,000 question. Who runs for the Republicans?

Sidenote: Nothing here should be taken as me endorsing anyone. I'm just sorting out who I think will run and who I think will win.

I'm breaking the Republican field into three groups. First, the pretenders. Pretenders are people who I think are more likely than not to run, but who have about as much of a chance at the nomination as I do.

Mike Huckabee
I'm actually starting to wonder if Huckleberry will run again. He seems to really like his gig at Fox. Having said that, he's still probably running. Personally, I've always kind of liked Huckabee. He seems like an honest guy with good intentions. If he would just shut up about Jesus I might even be willing to vote for him.

Unfortunately, last time was really Mike's window. The Christians never liked McCain for some reason and Romney's a Mormon. On top of that, Huckabee was the only real southerner in the race. With the Christians and the South up for grabs, Huckabee still got his ass kicked by McCain. This time around, as you'll see if you keep reading, I think the Christians and the South will have better options. The good news is we can all continue enjoying the Huckleberry Hour every weekend on Fox.

Ron Paul
I like Ron Paul. I voted for Ron Paul in the Republican primary two years ago when I was still a Republican. Ron Paul might also be the only person who can keep his idiot son in line. Still, you know the deal with Congressman Paul. He'll have a small army of loyal followers, he'll annoy the serious candidates in debates, he'll get Fathead Hannity all riled up (because in Hannity's world, being a real conservative means being eager to make things explode in other countries), he'll raise millions here on the interwebs and he'll finish fifth.

Newt Gingrich
I think some people may consider Newt a real contender, not me. Newt spends way too much time on TV. If you want to make a big comeback in politics, you do it by disappearing for a while and shutting up, not running your mouth on Fox five nights a week. Also, Newt seems to have the need to say something completely crazy every six months or so, that's not really a plus during a campaign. The former Speaker is popular with hardcore conservatives, and I think he can be a kingmaker, but not the king.

Other pretenders receiving votes...
Jeb Bush - He's going to have a hard time convincing voters that he's never met his brother.
Bobby Jindal - Just because the rest of the Republican party thinks he's black doesn't make it so.
Mike Pence - BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!
Dave Petraeus - Do I have to remind you people of what happened when Wes Clark tried to run?
Rudy Guiliani - Not even Rudy is crazy enough to run again, right? Right??
Mitch Daniels - See Bush, Jeb.
Jim Demint - double BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!
Any Republican Member of Congress - I'm like 99.9999% sure you can't win from the Senate or the House this time around. Congress' job approval sits somewhere around 20%. That's the same as the percentage of dentists who don't recommend sugarless gum. How do you get that Washington stink off of you? You don't, especially with the other candidates constantly reminding voters where you work. I've even heard people suggest guys like Marco Rubio and Scott Brown could run. Seriously? Are we even sure Scott Brown isn't a fictional character.

Next, the contenders. Contenders are people who are definitely running unless something crazy happens (crazy being an incredibly relative term in the context of politics). I think everyone below could win under the right circumstances.

Mitt Romney
Cons: Mitt Romney is so boring his secret service code name would be "Ambien". Mitt Romney is so boring he makes John Kerry look like Denis Leary. President Romney's first State of the Union address would be cancelled halfway through. On top of that, I'm not sure Mitt Romney really knows anything. He might be really smart, but sometimes he strikes me as a guy who got into politics because his dad was a politician and because he kinda looks like a politician.

Pros: Romney has a ton of money and lock on the New Hampshire primary. He also has magic underwear. He knows the campaign trail and Republican primary voters know who he is. I don't think he wins the nomination, but he certainly could.

Sarah Palin
Cons: At some point, Palin still has to convince voters that she won't just quit the Presidency when she gets bored with it, like she did with her job as Governor. She'll also have to convince voters that she's not a total moron. On top of that, she may score some points from time to time by badmouthing the media, but nobody ever actually wins a fight with the media, she'll have to make nice eventually.

Pros: The Christians really like Sarah Palin. Seriously, if they had to choose between Palin and Jesus, they'd have to think about it for a minute. On top of that, she's by far the best known person on the possible contenders list. Most importantly, Palin's loyal base of supporters isn't phased by things like facts and reality. I think enough Republicans are smart enough to nominate someone better, but I could easily be wrong about that.

Tim Pawlenty
Pros: As the Governor of Minnesota, Pawlenty walks in the proud footsteps of guys like John Pillsbury (who may or may not have been made of dough), Jesse Ventura and, I believe, the Ultimate Warrior. Pawlenty is relatively well known nationally and very well known in Iowa. Conservatives seem to like him (I saw him on Hannity's show recently and Hannity wasn't yelling at him or anything) and I think moderates will find him, at the very least, tolerable.

Cons: If this primary fight ever came down to Pawlenty vs. Romney, the resulting debate would be so boring it would break television. Not my television, all television. Also, Pawlenty disappeared a little since 2008. That's not entirely bad, but it's not great either. If Pawlenty can win Iowa over Palin and Huckabee (and possibly Gingrich), he could make a serious run at the nomination. In the end, I think he probably winds up as the VP candidate, like he should have last time.

Rick Perry
Pros: The Governor of Texas went from pretender to contender in my book when he seemed oddly reasonable during his recent Daily Show interview. It was jarring. It was like seeing Sarah Palin go on are you smarter than a 5th grader and actually seem smarter than the 5th graders. Perry comes from the biggest Republican state, he can win in the south and, as always, you don't mess with Texas.

Cons: Perry still might be crazy, and he sounds exactly like George W. Bush. If he can prove he's sane and if voters can get past the accent, Perry could be a real dark horse.

Then, there's the favorite, my pick to win the Republican nomination (if you've read my past predictions about, well, anything, you know this means this person will NOT be winning the Republican nomination).

Haley Barbour
Cons: Barbour probably can't win Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada. If someone else can roll all three of those states, he could get buried before he gets started. Also, Barbour is a former lobbyist (uh oh) and a career politician (double uh oh). Luckily, voters are stupid and will most likely ignore the fact that Barbour is exactly the kind of person they claim to hate so much.

Pros: Lots to like about the Governor of Mississippi...
1) He's a great fundraiser
2) If he can beat Rick Perry, he'll dominate the south in the primaries
3) He'll take Republican leaning general election states like Georgia and North Carolina (and possibly even Virginia) off the table.
4) Swing state Governors are important in primaries and the general, and Haley Barbour just helped get shiny new Republican Governors elected in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
5) When I look at all the Republican names I just listed, Haley Barbour is the only one I think could actually win in 2012.

Would I vote for Haley Barbour if he were running against Barack Obama? Probably not, but I'd be willing to listen to him at least, which is more than I can say for most of these other people.