State Of The Republican Race

It's been almost a year already since I took my first shot at summing up the race for the Republican nomination http://somethingclever13.blogspot.com/2010/11/start-game.html.  I nailed some things (hello Rick Perry) and whiffed on others (oh, Haley Barbour, why have you forsaken me?).  The aftermath of the first sort of important debate is a good time to reset the field and see where we are.  I'll break the remaining candidates into four groups. 

Still Pretending:  People who can't possibly win the nomination, but are still plugging away like champs.
Still Contending:  People who I think still have a shot
Wild Cards:  People I still can't totally figure out
Front Runner:  The guy on top, for now.

But first...
Hasta La Vista Timmy
First off, a fond farewell to Tim Pawlenty.  He showed up at the Iowa debate, hammered away at Michele Bachmann for a little while, finished a distant third in the straw poll and then he bailed.  Well done, buddy.  Tim was the little engine that couldn't, because nobody wanted him to.  After the debate Thursday, I was thinking Pawlenty had a great performance and, in going after the two front runners, did exactly what he needed to do.  I just didn't know if it was enough.  Now I know.  It wasn't.

Still Pretending

Newt Gingrich

Newt easily had the worst performance in Thursday's debate.  Look, I understand conservative politicians can score points by blaming the media every time they say something stupid.  But Newt, who WORKED AT FOX, went to the FOX DEBATE Thursday and complained that the FOX ANCHORS were nailing him with gotcha questions.  Gotcha questions like, "Why did your whole staff quit?" and "Can you explain words that you said?". 

Newt then proceeded to finish 8th in a 10 man race, behind a guy who announced he wasn't participating in the straw poll two months ago and a guy who wasn't officially in the race yet when the poll started.  I'll enjoy the comedy of Newt's campaign until whenever he drops out. 

By the way, I wish Republicans would stop trying to tell me that Newt is some kind of super genius.  He's a small time political hack who can't cut it on the national stage.  End of story.

Herman Cain

Speaking of hacks.  I don't really know what to make of Herman's Cain's debate performance.  Policy wise, he's in pretty far over his head at this point.  His calling card is that old story about how if you ran a business then you know how to run a government.  Of course, that's nonsense, but politicians have been saying it for as long as I can remember and people are still falling for it.  I can see Cain doing surprisingly well in one of the early primaries, but one third place finish in Iowa doesn't get you the nomination.

Rick Santorum

The knuckle-dragging bible-thumping on social issues.  The know-nothing, war-mongering nonsense on foreign policy.  The blind loyalty to the cult of tax cuts.  Rick Santorum is everything that's wrong with the Republican party all rolled up into one ignorant package.  I do not like him.  Luckily, he isn't winning. 

By the way, for anyone who read my recap of Thursday's debate, I want to quickly re-visit one point.  When I said Rick Santorum promised to come to each state and be homophobic in person, I wasn't being hyperbolic or making that up.  Rick, if he wins the Presidency, will apparently spend the majority of his term flying around the country and fighting the evil gays face to face.  That landed him almost 10% of the straw poll votes.  Iowa must be feeling very proud today.

Ron Paul

I love Ron Paul.  If Ron Paul was an atheist, I'd quit my job to go volunteer for his campaign.  Ron did his thing in Thursday's debate.  He talked about monetary policy, which I think he only does to prove that he's smarter than the other candidates, Bachmann can't even spell monetary.  He talked about his different (and better) vision for what Republican foreign policy can be.  He talked about the Constitution, which he was doing back when the rest of the Republican party was cheering George W. Bush on as he urinated all over the Constitution.  He almost won the straw poll, finishing a very close second.  And, as usual, nobody cares.

I think my favorite thing about Congressman Paul is his clear disdain for almost everyone else in his party.  You could tell during the debate, it seems like he hates those people he was sharing the stage with almost as much as they hate Barack Obama.  When asked about Rick Perry, Paul immediately dismissed him as another establishment political hack.   Like I said, I love Ron Paul.

Still Contending

Jon Hunstman

I know, Huntsman probably isn't a real contender and may drop out before I finish typing this sentence.  I think this is me just trying to stay hopeful that maybe, just maybe, the Republicans can turn this thing around and nominate someone with a working brain.  Sadly, my hope is most likely misguided. 

What makes me say that?  Well, Huntsman just sort of blended in at the debate and then finished 10th in the straw poll, including getting less votes (69) then the "other" category (162).  Why I am still a little hopeful?  Hunstman was never going to win Iowa and everyone knew it.  He needs to focus on New Hampshire, work on his delivery (he has a really odd speaking style) and hope for the best.  He still has a good amount of money behind him.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann's debate performance was awful.  She clung to her talking points the way her husband clings to his (insert latent homosexuality joke here).  However, this one awful performance in this one very early debate is a good sign going forward.  Congresswoman Bachmann is working hard on her ability to stay on message, stick to her talking points and limit her trips to Imagination Land.  It makes her look stiff and over-rehearsed now, but it'll pay off later.  Frankly, I'm a little worried she's taking this more seriously than I thought she could.  I'm impressed with her growth over the last few months, and terrified to say that she might actually be able to win this nomination if she keeps it up.

The Wild Cards

Sarah Palin

Still lurking around the perimeter of the campaign like a shark circling a school of trout, the former half-term Governor continues to cast a shadow over the nomination process.  The fun thing about Palin is you really don't know what she'll do next.  She could run, she could endorse somebody, she could try host her own primary somewhere, she could challenge the other candidates to a bus race.  Palin's unique combination of insanity, irrational self-confidence and delusions of grandeur make almost anything possible.  It's probably already a little late for her to get into the race and win, but you can bet she'll do something in the next six months to seriously influence the race.

Rick Perry

Perry just got in, but I've been convinced he was running since last November.  I don't know what people see in him.  They say he created jobs in Texas.  First of all, I thought government doesn't create jobs, so I'm a little confused.  Secondly, he created jobs in Texas by undercutting surrounding states on taxes, wages and regulation.  That trick doesn't work when you're in charge of the whole country. 

For fans of the West Wing, you may remember the guy President Bartlet ran against for re-election, a know-nothing conservative Governor from Florida named Rob Ritchie, played by James Brolin.  At the time, Ritchie seemed like an approximation of George W. Bush, but now he looks like a mirror image of Perry.  As you may recall, Bartlet wiped the floor with Ritchie in the one debate they had, and I'm pretty sure President Obama would do the same with Perry.

The Front Runner

Mitt Romney

Still at the head of the field, for now.  Here's the thing about Mitt Romney.  His message in the debate was an anti-Obama message.  He's trying to prove he can be the guy Republicans want, the guy to go after the President hard and relentlessly.  That's fine for now, but if he wants to beat the President, he needs more.  No matter how low the President's job approval sinks, he's personal popularity remains high.  People like Barack Obama, and Romney can't beat him by bashing him.  If Mitt wins the nomination, he needs to run a positive general election campaign, centered around his own ideas for what he would do as President. 

Romney's religion could still be a problem in the primary, but only if the other candidates work together.  Michele Bachmann can't just come out and talk about Romney being a mormon, it would drag her down too.  What she needs is a third person, say Herman Cain, to start reminding Republican primary voters that Romney isn't really a christian like they are.  Cain would doom his own campaign by overtly making religion an issue, but he isn't going to win anyway.  Evangelical voters would start to get more nervous about Romney then they already are, and Bachmann would reap the windfall while being able to give the ol' "this campaign isn't about Mitt Romney's faith, it's about the American people" soundbite. 

But before that strategy can work, Bachmann and Perry have to figure out who gets the crazy idiot vote.  If they split that half of the party while Romney manages to avoid splitting the slightly more reasonable and somewhat rational half of the party with someone else, Hunstman maybe, then Romney walks to the nomination while the tea people and the evangelicals are arguing over Bachmann and Perry. 

The bottom line for me is this.  Whichever half of the Republican party can decide who they're behind quicker wins.  Right now, Romney has the lead because nobody can cut into his support with the establishment side of the party while the other side of the party is still getting their act together.  When the primaries start, Bachmann will win Iowa, Romney will win New Hampshire and Perry should win South Carolina assuming he runs a halfway decent campaign.  That puts everyone on even footing coming out of the early states and Romney's money and name recognition should be able to carry him from there. 

This only changes if the tea people and evangelicals can get together and pick one person to win Iowa and South Carolina. Then that person starts the rest of the primary process with an advantage and some momentum.  Do I think this will happen?  Probably not.  Can it happen?  Sure.  Does the idea of President Bachmann or President Perry terrify me?  You bet.