Start Game

You might say that it's ridiculous to start talking about the 2012 election already, but you'd be wrong. First of all, a Republican controlled House working with a slim Democrat majority in the Senate and a Democrat President is already a perfect recipe for total gridlock. That's even more true now because so many Republicans have some sort of hatred derangement syndrome with this particular President. It's entirely possible that our government will just spend the next two years yelling at each other. The 2012 election may be the next thing that actually happens.

We already know who will be running for the Democrats. It's not possible to be crazy enough to mount a serious primary challenge against a sitting President while also being mainstream and sane enough for people to actually take you seriously. I'm sure we'll see a few people run for a while and take pot shots at the President from the left, but it won't amount to anything. That leaves us with the $64,000 question. Who runs for the Republicans?

Sidenote: Nothing here should be taken as me endorsing anyone. I'm just sorting out who I think will run and who I think will win.

I'm breaking the Republican field into three groups. First, the pretenders. Pretenders are people who I think are more likely than not to run, but who have about as much of a chance at the nomination as I do.

Mike Huckabee
I'm actually starting to wonder if Huckleberry will run again. He seems to really like his gig at Fox. Having said that, he's still probably running. Personally, I've always kind of liked Huckabee. He seems like an honest guy with good intentions. If he would just shut up about Jesus I might even be willing to vote for him.

Unfortunately, last time was really Mike's window. The Christians never liked McCain for some reason and Romney's a Mormon. On top of that, Huckabee was the only real southerner in the race. With the Christians and the South up for grabs, Huckabee still got his ass kicked by McCain. This time around, as you'll see if you keep reading, I think the Christians and the South will have better options. The good news is we can all continue enjoying the Huckleberry Hour every weekend on Fox.

Ron Paul
I like Ron Paul. I voted for Ron Paul in the Republican primary two years ago when I was still a Republican. Ron Paul might also be the only person who can keep his idiot son in line. Still, you know the deal with Congressman Paul. He'll have a small army of loyal followers, he'll annoy the serious candidates in debates, he'll get Fathead Hannity all riled up (because in Hannity's world, being a real conservative means being eager to make things explode in other countries), he'll raise millions here on the interwebs and he'll finish fifth.

Newt Gingrich
I think some people may consider Newt a real contender, not me. Newt spends way too much time on TV. If you want to make a big comeback in politics, you do it by disappearing for a while and shutting up, not running your mouth on Fox five nights a week. Also, Newt seems to have the need to say something completely crazy every six months or so, that's not really a plus during a campaign. The former Speaker is popular with hardcore conservatives, and I think he can be a kingmaker, but not the king.

Other pretenders receiving votes...
Jeb Bush - He's going to have a hard time convincing voters that he's never met his brother.
Bobby Jindal - Just because the rest of the Republican party thinks he's black doesn't make it so.
Mike Pence - BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!
Dave Petraeus - Do I have to remind you people of what happened when Wes Clark tried to run?
Rudy Guiliani - Not even Rudy is crazy enough to run again, right? Right??
Mitch Daniels - See Bush, Jeb.
Jim Demint - double BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!
Any Republican Member of Congress - I'm like 99.9999% sure you can't win from the Senate or the House this time around. Congress' job approval sits somewhere around 20%. That's the same as the percentage of dentists who don't recommend sugarless gum. How do you get that Washington stink off of you? You don't, especially with the other candidates constantly reminding voters where you work. I've even heard people suggest guys like Marco Rubio and Scott Brown could run. Seriously? Are we even sure Scott Brown isn't a fictional character.

Next, the contenders. Contenders are people who are definitely running unless something crazy happens (crazy being an incredibly relative term in the context of politics). I think everyone below could win under the right circumstances.

Mitt Romney
Cons: Mitt Romney is so boring his secret service code name would be "Ambien". Mitt Romney is so boring he makes John Kerry look like Denis Leary. President Romney's first State of the Union address would be cancelled halfway through. On top of that, I'm not sure Mitt Romney really knows anything. He might be really smart, but sometimes he strikes me as a guy who got into politics because his dad was a politician and because he kinda looks like a politician.

Pros: Romney has a ton of money and lock on the New Hampshire primary. He also has magic underwear. He knows the campaign trail and Republican primary voters know who he is. I don't think he wins the nomination, but he certainly could.

Sarah Palin
Cons: At some point, Palin still has to convince voters that she won't just quit the Presidency when she gets bored with it, like she did with her job as Governor. She'll also have to convince voters that she's not a total moron. On top of that, she may score some points from time to time by badmouthing the media, but nobody ever actually wins a fight with the media, she'll have to make nice eventually.

Pros: The Christians really like Sarah Palin. Seriously, if they had to choose between Palin and Jesus, they'd have to think about it for a minute. On top of that, she's by far the best known person on the possible contenders list. Most importantly, Palin's loyal base of supporters isn't phased by things like facts and reality. I think enough Republicans are smart enough to nominate someone better, but I could easily be wrong about that.

Tim Pawlenty
Pros: As the Governor of Minnesota, Pawlenty walks in the proud footsteps of guys like John Pillsbury (who may or may not have been made of dough), Jesse Ventura and, I believe, the Ultimate Warrior. Pawlenty is relatively well known nationally and very well known in Iowa. Conservatives seem to like him (I saw him on Hannity's show recently and Hannity wasn't yelling at him or anything) and I think moderates will find him, at the very least, tolerable.

Cons: If this primary fight ever came down to Pawlenty vs. Romney, the resulting debate would be so boring it would break television. Not my television, all television. Also, Pawlenty disappeared a little since 2008. That's not entirely bad, but it's not great either. If Pawlenty can win Iowa over Palin and Huckabee (and possibly Gingrich), he could make a serious run at the nomination. In the end, I think he probably winds up as the VP candidate, like he should have last time.

Rick Perry
Pros: The Governor of Texas went from pretender to contender in my book when he seemed oddly reasonable during his recent Daily Show interview. It was jarring. It was like seeing Sarah Palin go on are you smarter than a 5th grader and actually seem smarter than the 5th graders. Perry comes from the biggest Republican state, he can win in the south and, as always, you don't mess with Texas.

Cons: Perry still might be crazy, and he sounds exactly like George W. Bush. If he can prove he's sane and if voters can get past the accent, Perry could be a real dark horse.

Then, there's the favorite, my pick to win the Republican nomination (if you've read my past predictions about, well, anything, you know this means this person will NOT be winning the Republican nomination).

Haley Barbour
Cons: Barbour probably can't win Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada. If someone else can roll all three of those states, he could get buried before he gets started. Also, Barbour is a former lobbyist (uh oh) and a career politician (double uh oh). Luckily, voters are stupid and will most likely ignore the fact that Barbour is exactly the kind of person they claim to hate so much.

Pros: Lots to like about the Governor of Mississippi...
1) He's a great fundraiser
2) If he can beat Rick Perry, he'll dominate the south in the primaries
3) He'll take Republican leaning general election states like Georgia and North Carolina (and possibly even Virginia) off the table.
4) Swing state Governors are important in primaries and the general, and Haley Barbour just helped get shiny new Republican Governors elected in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
5) When I look at all the Republican names I just listed, Haley Barbour is the only one I think could actually win in 2012.

Would I vote for Haley Barbour if he were running against Barack Obama? Probably not, but I'd be willing to listen to him at least, which is more than I can say for most of these other people.