I Was Wrong

Even though I'm super smart and totally awesome, sometimes I'm still wrong. Around this time last year, I said the Washington Wizards would surprise everyone and get to the second round of the playoffs. As you may have heard, later that season, Gilbert Arenas brought a gun to work and the Wizards traded their entire team. They wound up with the first pick in the draft.

Similarly, last spring I picked the Seattle Mariners to win the AL west. I did a few paragraphs for every team, so I didn't expect to be right about everything, but man did I get that one wrong. I stopped watching after a while because I couldn't take it, but it's possible Seattle lost all 162 of their games last year. I think they may have also managed to go a whole season without scoring any runs. Swing and a miss for me (and the Mariners, many many times).

Why bring these things up now? I wanted to have some take on the midterm election results, but with the three cable networks hosting a combined 174 analysts for eight hours each, I really doubt there's an angle they missed. I can't imagine I have anything to say that wasn't shouted over 10 other people on cable TV at some point. So, I'm left searching for something that's specific to me, and that brings me to what I was most recently wrong about. Charlie Crist.

A little over two months ago, I boldly predicted that Charlie Crist would win the Florida Senate race convincingly, and his win would usher in a wave of successful independent candidates. I still stand behind the logic I used to draw that conclusion, which was basically this:
1) Polls consistently show people are angry with both parties.
2) Independent candidates can do well if they already have strong name recognition, which the current Governor of the state certainly does.
3) Crist honestly seemed like the best candidate.
4) I also thought the Democrat would drop out and endorse Crist at some point. Swing and a miss there too.

That was my logic, and I would have looked pretty good if my prediction had panned out. Instead, Crist lost by 20 points to tea party favorite and department store mannequin Marco Rubio. Whoops. I tried to figure out where I went wrong and came up with the following:

First of all, Crist was an awful candidate. I don't know what his deal really is, but it seems clear that Florida voters see him as a slimy politician who would do anything to win and has no loyalties other than to himself. I don't know how Florida voters think this makes him any different from every other politician, but one way or the other, they didn't vote for him.

Secondly, Marco Rubio turned out to be probably the most reasonable of all the tea people. To be fair, it didn't take much. Being the most reasonable tea person is like being the coolest kid at bible camp. Still, Senator Elect Rubio looked like a rocket scientist Tuesday night compared to the likes of Carl Paladino and Christine O'Donnell, and that was a pretty good reflection of how the whole campaign season looked.

Most importantly, I ignored the fact that this election was happening in Florida. The Florida that gave us George W. Bush because they couldn't figure out how to vote correctly. The Florida that sent Katherine Harris to the House of Representatives...twice. The Florida that has three sports teams based in Tampa Bay even though Tampa Bay isn't an actual city.

Obviously, Florida shouldn't be allowed to vote anymore. I honestly don't know what we're waiting for. More importantly, I'm never making a prediction for a Senate or House race again, because I'm from New York, and all the other states are crazy.

As for the rest of the midterm results, I have one thought for each party. Humble advice for the road forward.

Democrats
Try growing a collective spine. If it doesn't feel good after a few months, you can always go back to your natural state of cowardly compromise. But, just for a little while, why not try deciding on some principles and then not voting for anything that doesn't match up with those principles. The Republicans did that for two years and do you know what happened next? They mopped the floor with you.

This obviously starts with the President, who's been especially timid since Tuesday. I'm never happier with the President then when he's doing his "why are you people so stupid?" tone of voice while calmly explaining why he's right and everyone else is wrong. I want more of that. Republicans are going to call him arrogant anyway, he might as well just come out swinging.

Republicans
You have to do stuff. I know you don't want to, but you're going to have to. The Democrats still control the Senate and the White House. If you want a shot at winning those in 2012, you have to pass some legislation through the House that people like. Then, you can go to the voters and tell them how the big mean Democrats killed all your awesome legislation and if they just hand the rest of the government over to you, they can have their candy.

Also, you have to find a decent candidate for 2012, and I'll get to that next week.