Before we get to my last division, let's do some big picture predictions. I could tell you that Roy Halladay will win a Cy Young award and Albert Pujols will be the NL MVP, and I'd probably be right, but where's the fun in that? Let's go out on a limb a little.
AL Rookie of the Year - Justin Smoak
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez (OK, not a big limb here)
AL MVP - Kevin Youkilis
NL Rookie of the Year - Jason Heyward (no limb at all here, whatever)
NL Cy Young - Ubaldo Jimenez
NL MVP - Justin Upton
Quick note on Heyward. I didn't even mention him when I talked about the Braves. I honestly didn't think he'd make their opening day roster. Now that he's there, I'm sold. Let's get to baseball's best division.
Boston Red Sox
I don't hate the Red Sox. There's something about sports hate that I just don't get. I don't like the Red Sox, I root against them when they're playing the Yankees, but I don't hate them. When they won in 2004, I was unhappy about the ALCS, but I was honestly happy for Sox fans when they won the world series. I wasn't rooting for them to win, but it didn't make me angry. I guess if all fans were like me, sports would be less fun.
Off-season: Something about Boston's off-season left me wanting more. John Lackey was a nice start, but this team is already so stacked with pitching, it didn't really feel necessary. Meanwhile, on the line-up side of things, they replaced Jason Bay with an aging Mike Cameron. Cameron isn't a base stealer anymore (7 last year) and was never a great hitter for average (.250 career). Cameron's greatest asset was always his defense, but at 37, I have my questions about how good he'll actually be (and how long before they move Ellsbury back to center field). And I'm not sure how much better Adrian Beltre is than Mike Lowell. I know Lowell's 36 and basically held together with duct tape, but he hit .290 last year.
Line-up: This team strikes me as one bat short. The conventional wisdom says that bat is Adrian Gonzalez and he'll be arriving soon enough, but where do you put him. Do you bench Ortiz? Do you move Youkilis to third and bench Beltre? San Diego wouldn't take either of those guys back in a trade. I like Ellsbury's speed, but I'm not so wild about his .350 career OBP. I like JD Drew more than most people do, but he's still JD Drew. Ortiz is the key here. People will tell you he was much better in the second half last year, but only the power really came back, he still only hit .258 after the break. Add that to his .212 average all year against lefties and I wouldn't be too encouraged. If Ortiz hits again, this team can score with anyone. If not, like I said, one bat short.
Pitching: Boston has, by far, the best pitching in baseball. It's not even remotely close. Not only does their rotation go 6 deep (which I guess is good because Dice K is already hurt), but they've also got guys like Casey Kelly ready in the minors if needed. Jon Lester could win the Cy Young this year and I think Clay Bucholtz has a break out year in him. The bullpen is just as scary. Papelbon makes things interesting, but his 1.85 ERA last year says he knows how to close the deal. Bard and Delcarmen could both probably close for about 15 other teams. Just thinking about the Yankees trying to score runs against this team is making me dizzy.
Final Thought: Boston's organizational depth scares me. If there's a big outfield bat on the trade market in July, the Red Sox have the chips to make the deal. Ortiz clogging up the DH spot makes it a little harder for them to add someone, but they'll have to bench him eventually if he doesn't hit.
Prediction: First place. I have my concerns about their line-up, but the pitching and the pitching depth they have sets them up nicely to win consistently over the long season. When the injuries start to come and everyone needs to go to their 7th or 8th starter, the Sox will still be throwing studs out there while the Yankees are down to Sergio Mitre. How will they do in the playoffs?...let's find out.
New York Yankees
I've said this before and I'll say it again. Being a Yankee fan is no fun. You expect a championship every year, anything else is a huge disappointment. There's no joy after a win, just relief. It's the sports equivalent of a heroin addiction. It's great at first, but after a while you need a world series ring just to get you to normal.
Off-season: Trades were the big deal this off-season. I give them around a B+ for the Granderson thing. I like Austin Jackson, but you never know with prospects. I give them an A+++ for the Vazquez thing. Braves fans are about to find out what we Yankee fans already know, Melky Cabrera is a 4th outfielder, nothing more. That was a steal. Nick Johnson and Randy Winn were interesting signings. I like Johnson and I look forward to the 20 or 30 healthy games I get to see him play this year.
Line-up: The Yankees have the best line-up around. I'm not wild about Nick Swisher, but I like Brett Gardner more than most people do and Granderson brings serious power (40 HR's easy in Yankee Stadium). I like Robinson Cano for the AL batting title this year. If Alex Rodriguez has one more MVP caliber season left in him, it should happen now. With this line-up, in that park, this team will score and score and score. In other news, water is wet and the sun is hot.
Pitching: I'm not crazy about the Yankees' pitching. I've never been a big Pettitte fan (Yankee sacrilege, I know) and while I like the Vazquez trade because of the nothing the Yankees gave up, I was also here in 2004 when we saw him last. I like Phil Hughes for the 5th starter spot,but what happens when he gets hurt (and history says he probably will). The bullpen makes me a little nervous too. Robertson, Marte, Aceves, Joba? Eek. I know people remember Joba being a lights out 8th inning guy when he first came up, but he's not that guy anymore, not even close. Lots of high scoring games for this team.
Final Thought: The Yankees don't have a lot left for mid-season deals. Austin Jackson was their biggest chip. They still have Jesus Montero, but they'd really like to keep him. They could get in on a big outfield bat too, but I feel like Boston could outbid them.
Prediction: Second place and the AL wild card. But guess what? I think the Yankees can take the Sox in a short series. By October, Boston's pitching will be a little more manageable. Beckett's never right by the end of the season and Dice K can't stay healthy. The Yankee line-up is solid enough to deal with Boston's pen. I like Boston in the long run, but I think the Yankees are a better team head to head. I see another world series for the Yanks.
Tampa Bay Rays
Did you know Tampa Bay isn't even a real city? And not just because New York is the only real city. There's no city in Florida called Tampa Bay. A few years ago, I could follow that up with a joke about how the Rays aren't a real baseball team, but not anymore. Still a stupid name though. Devil Rays was stupid to begin with, Rays is even stupider.
Off-season: As usual, the Rays mostly sat back and watched other teams sign players. They did pick up Rafael Soriano. I like Soriano, but he's another guy who can't stay healthy. But, if he does stay healthy, Soriano was solid for Atlanta last year (27 saves, 2.97 ERA. Not bad) and he's a good addition.
Line-up: I don't like this line-up as much as TV guys seem to. Longoria could be the MVP this year, or really any year for the next 10, and I like BJ Upton and Carl Crawford. But, like the AL East itself, this line-up has a weak underbelly. Dioner Navarro hit .218 last year. Pat Burrell's been so bad this spring that Tampa appears to be considering Hank Blalock at DH. Carlos Pena's a nice power hitter, but he hit .227 last year, including .211 against lefties. And, they still don't have a right fielder. They gave up Edwin Jackson last spring for Matt Joyce, who proceeded to give them nothing. Can this team score? Hell yeah. Can they score with the Yankees and the Red Sox? I don't see it.
Pitching: Like Boston, pitching is a real strength for Tampa. Unlike Boston, I don't really see an ace here. Both Shields and Garza had losing records and ERA's around 4 last year. Wade Davis and David Price could both be aces someday, but probably not this year. You know how I feel about teams without aces. I like this bullpen, but it let them down last year. It takes a lot of pitching to hold up in this division, I'm not sure if Tampa has it.
Final Thought: Does it bother anyone else that this team would win the NL west by about 40 games?
Bonus Final Thought: I'm so excited for when the Yankees sign Carl Crawford, I can barely contain myself. He'll be the best lead-off hitter I've seen in pinstripes since they had Rickey Henderson, and Crawford's not even crazy. I can't wait.
Prediction: Third place. This is sad, since they're probably the third best team in baseball. Look out below if they start slow and start trading people early. This is the still the Tampa Bay Rays, they know where last place is.
Baltimore Orioles
Off-season: For some reason, my brain kept telling me Miguel Tejada was a bust the first time around in Baltimore, then I looked at the numbers. He hit .330 in 2006. He drove in 150 runs for them 2004. Holy crap! Last year in Houston he still hit .313. Not a terrible addition. I don't see Garret Atkins doing a whole lot for them, this is a guy who couldn't hit at Coors field last year. Finally, the Orioles just traded for Julio Lugo. Red Sox fans can tell you that there's nothing good about that last sentence.
Line-up: This isn't a bad line-up. Really promising young outfield, solid infield. Matt Wieters should have his first of many really good seasons. They can't hit with the Yankees, but they can hit. I'd be willing to buy this team as a contender in another division.
Pitching: Sigh. I like Brian Matusz, so does everyone else. But playing a third of your games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays doesn't really lend itself to developing young pitching. People say Kevin Millwood is underrated. Really? I'm looking at his numbers, I think unimpressed is exactly how I'm supposed to feel. The bullpen isn't terrible, but Mike Gonzalez already has some back issues, so it's not starting out well on the injury front. Not a lot to like here.
Final Thought: This is a wierd team. Some young guys, some old guys, pitching on the way but mostly not there yet. The 2010 Orioles are the poster children for a rebuilding year. At least Baltimore fans have Boog's BBQ.
Prediction: Fourth place. This team is clearly better than Toronto and clearly worse than everyone else. I may be more confident about Baltimore for fourth place than I am about anything else I've predicted.
Toronto Blue Jays
I'm not the first person to say this, but the '94 strike murdered baseball in Toronto. Now that the Expos are gone, can't we just move this team to Las Vegas and let Canada focus on hockey? Wouldn't that be best for everyone?
Off-season: The Halladay trade was really the headline for Toronto's off-season. Whenever giving away your best player turns out to be the highlight of your off-season, that's not a good sign. They also signed Jose Molina. On behalf of Yankee fans everywhere, thanks.
Line-up: I like Aaron Hill (36HR from 2nd base last year) and I like Adam Lind (.305/35/114 last year, wow). Unfortunately, that's about it. Did Vernon Wells get old in a hurry, or was he never really that good? Same question about Lyle Overbay. The Reds just got tired of looking at Edwin Encarnacion. In case you haven't noticed, Cincinnati isn't exactly swimming with great talent. I look at this line-up and I see outs, lots of them.
Pitching: ...move along people...nothing to see here.Final Thought: Just when I thought I couldn't be any less excited about this team, I remembered that they play in a dome. When I'm President, I'm outlawing indoor baseball. I don't care if it's cold in Toronto in April, it's cold in New York too, you don't hear us complaining.
Prediction: Last place. I feel bad for this team, lots of ass kickings in their immediate future.
Oh...who's winning the world series? Well, I've got the Yankees and Phillies getting there again. I like Philadelphia's pitching, but their bullpen might be a mess. If Brad Lidge has a year like he had in 2008, I like the Phillies in 7. If Brad Lidge has a year like he had last year, I like the Yankees in 6 again. That's not exactly a definitive prediction, but it's all I've got for now.
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