MLB First Impressions - National League

...and now for the National League...

Washington Nationals
I'm not as crazy about Bryce Harper as I think some people want me to be, but the TV did remind me that he's a year younger than Mike Trout, so I guess we'll see.  Meanwhile, Washington added Dan Haren and Rafael Soriano, and Stephen Strasburg should be mostly free of innings limits this season.  Washington looks really really good.  Easy division winner.  Can we force them to move back to Montreal at this point?

Atlanta Braves
I've always said double the Upton equals double the awesome.  Why wouldn't you want both Upton brothers on your team?  Some things worry me about the Braves.  Tim Hudson is 37 and can't do this forever.  Kris Medlen has to regress a little bit, right?  The left side of the infield has a real "who the fuck are those guys?" vibe going.  Still, having an excellent bullpen and cornering the market on Uptons should be plenty to land Atlanta a wild card spot.

Philadelphia Phillies
Can we just fire Charlie Manuel now and get it over with?  On paper, this team still looks like it should be good, except that it isn't.  I've never trusted Cliff Lee, and I never will.  And now I'm hearing Roy Halladay and "decreased velocity" in the same sentence an awful lot.  And did you know Chase Utley is 34?  I didn't know that.  Yikes.  I love Cole Hamels, the rest of this is a disaster waiting to happen.

Miami and The Mets
Speaking of yikes.  Neither one of these teams has any redeeming quality that would allow me to choose one over the other.  If I have to pick one, I'll pick the Mets to finish just ahead of Miami, if only because the Mets are used to being depressing by now while the Marlins are still sort of reeling from the embarrassment that was last season.  The Mets also have David Wright, which I suppose is marginally better than not having David Wright. 

Cincinnati Reds
I looked at Cincinnati's depth chart and thought "Ryan Ludwick?  Still?".  But then I actually looked at his numbers from last year and they aren't half bad.  More importantly, I love everything about the Reds' pitching and they picked up the Choo Choo train.  All aboard for a division title!

St. Louis Cardinals
Word is Chris Carpenter is most likely done.  That's sad.  As for the rest of the Cardinals, there's so much about this roster that makes me nervous.  Jason Motte seems like one of those "hey, remember that brief period of time when that guy was good?" guys.  Beltran and Holliday are both guys who are older than you think they are, but also seem older than they actually are, if that makes sense.  I don't like what I'm seeing here.  Still second place though, because this division is terrible, even without Houston.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are a lot like the Royals only, unlike the Royals, they haven't yet bothered to go out and get some actual pitching.  Also, I don't know if the Pirates know this, but Russell Martin hit .211 last year.  Who signs that guy to be a starting catcher?  I'm sorry, I can't take the Pirates seriously until they start taking themselves seriously.

Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Braun is pretty good, so there's that.  I'm just so underwhelmed by the rest of this roster.  I thought we had all given up on Carlos Gomez.  Maybe I'll like them better when they get Corey Hart back.  Probably not though.  When does training camp start for the Packers?

Chicago Cubs
Talk about bottoming out.  Is Carlos Marmol still seriously the Cubs' closer?  They had all off-season to think about this and nobody had a better idea?  He's not even young anymore, he's 30.  And I don't even want to speculate about how old Alfonso Soriano is.  Theo Epstein better know what he's doing.  When people in Chicago get angry, shit goes down.

Arizona Diamondbacks
OK, usually when I think Arizona is going to the playoffs they wind up finishing last, so I apologize to D'Backs fans in advance, but I think Arizona wins the west.  Solid pitching, solid offense, solid everything.  Guys like Martin Prado and Cody Ross are really nice pick-ups.  They're the kind of guys you see filling roles on winning teams.  Also, remember the name Adam Eaton.

San Francisco Giants
Yes, Tim Lincecum is zeroing in on being finished, but the Giants still have Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, and the surprisingly adequate Barry Zito.  I really like this team, no great hitters, but lots of perfectly solid bats.  I think this is actually the best team in the division, but they'll be hurt by some early season Lincecum train wrecks before they figure out he's finished and I think they wind up settling for a wild card.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Hey, remember when everyone said you didn't want to sign Carl Crawford to a long term contact because he'll eventually lose a couple of steps and suddenly be very mediocre at best.  Well that's happening now, enjoy Dodgers fans.  The Dodgers have the potential to be legitimately not awful, but too many question marks for me.

Colorado Rockies
Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki have to be enough to make this team better than San Diego, right?  Right?  I heard the Rockies signed Jon Garland.  That's not a bad move, as long as this is 2005.  Is this 2005?

San Diego Padres
Add San Diego to the long list of teams that decided to try to turn a potentially excellent closer into a starter.  Too bad Andrew Cashner, you would have made a solid closer, instead you just go on the pile with Daniel Bard and Joba Chamberlain.  The Padres are a mess.  Can we relegate them and call up a triple A team?

National League MVP: Maybe if I keep picking Justin Upton I'll actually be right one year.
National League Cy Young: Cole Hamels!  Cole Hamels!
National League Champs:  This is tough.  Look, I'm going to have to pick Washington, but I don't have to like it.  I think the Nats lose to Tampa in the World Series.  There you go.

It's Baseball Time Again! - AL East

Welcome to the best division in baseball.  What makes this division better than the NL East?  In a (made up) word, the AL East has the important quality of Metlessness.  Why am I so down on the Mets?  When the Mets had Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and K-Rod, they were barely a contender.  Now they have exactly one and a half of those things. 

Anyway, where was I?  Oh right, the AL East.

New York Yankees

Good News: We all know the Yankees can hit, but something about the pitching staff this season actually makes sense to me.  It's not perfect, but I really like Michael Pineda (the Yankees made a good trade, for young talent, I'm still stunned) and I'm willing to classify the bullpen in front of Rivera as "not terrible". 

Bad News: Everything about Hiroki Kuroda tells me he's a guy who will be crushed in the American League, I have no faith in him.  Also, Mariano Rivera is 42 years old.  42!  I can't find anything in his 2011 statistics to suggest a decline (K rate actually went back up, innings held steady with 2010 numbers), but seriously, he's 42.  This can't go on forever.

Anything else we need to know?: What do I have to do to convince my fellow Yankee fans that Andy Pettitte was never that great to begin with.  It seems like most fans' reaction to the news of Andy's comeback was "yeah!".  My reaction was "Why?".  And speaking of Yankees I'm not a huge fan of, Nick Swisher.  I know he puts up good numbers and always stays healthy (at least 150 games played in six straight seasons), but his at-bats are torture.

Prediction: This makes me nervous, but I think the Yankees can win the division, and the World Series.  I know, I'm a homer.  Seriously though, I think this can happen.

Boston Red Sox

Good News: Andrew Bailey is every bit as good as Jonathan Papelbon, and 100% less crazy (I think, maybe playing in Boston was what made Papelbon crazy in the first place, I guess we'll see).  Cody Ross isn't any worse than JD Drew, and comes with the added benefit of not being JD Drew.  More importantly, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis have to be better than they were last year, Youk should be an MVP candidate (although I like Robinson Cano for AL MVP this year).  Plus they get Clay Buchholz back.  Lots of good news for the Sox (and they needed some).

Bad News: The bottom of Boston's rotation is kind of a mess (I love Daniel Bard as a closer and I love Alfredo Aceves as a middle/long reliever, I'm not sold on either of them as starters) .  Also, Bobby Valentine is super-overrated.  I know he once got an absolutely mediocre Mets team to a world series, but they got trounced in that series, and it was like 13 years ago. 

Anything else we need to know?: I live in Red Sox country now, which means that when the Yankees play the Sox, I only get to watch the Sox broadcast.  Booooooooo!!!!!!!!!

Prediction: Second place, wild card, not much else. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Good News: Tampa's starting rotation is going to pitch the shit out of the ball.  David Price had more strike-outs and less walks last year than he did in 2010, when he got serious Cy Young consideration.  Wade Davis should be better, Matt Moore should be awesome and James Shields seems to have figured something out.  And if any of those guys fail, Jeff Niemann is still around as the 6th starter.

Bad News: Still not a lot of offense in Tampa.  Add that to a bullpen that would be best described as "shaky", and it sounds like a recipe for a lot of late inning losses to Boston and New York.

Anything else we need to know?: Yeah, yeah.  I know Kyle Farnsworth was very good last year, but he's still Kyle Farnsworth.  Until the end of time, I will describe any bullpen which includes Kyle Farnsworth as shaky.

Prediction: Third place, the other wild card and probably a trip to the ALCS.  I think so anyway.  I honestly can't decide between the Rays and the Angels for the second AL wild card.  Tampa's a better team, but they don't get to play Seattle and Oakland as much as the Angels do.  Screw it, I'm going with Tampa.

Baltimore Orioles

Good News: Is it just me, or do the Orioles look like they can hit?  Not a ton, but some.  Right?  It may be time for a break-out year for Matt Wieters too.  Baltimore won't win a lot, but they won't be terrible either.

Bad News: Is it just me, or can the Orioles not pitch at all?  Baltimore's whole staff is a hodge podge of guys who probably aren't ready yet (Arrieta, Britton) and guys who will probably never be ready (Hammel, Chen, Tommy Hunter).  And what's going on with Brian Matusz?  This whole thing is a catastrophe.

Anything else we need to know?: Whenever I think of Baltimore, I immediately think of The Wire.  Wallace was on House this week.  Where's Wallace at?  He was in Dillon, Texas for a while, and then he was on House.  That's where Wallace is at.

Prediction: Fourth place, should be fun to watch (and hit against).

Toronto Blue Jays

Good News: Toronto is a super nice city.  It's like if you put an American city in a dishwasher, and then added the hockey hall of fame, and cool Canadian accents to all the people.   Oh, you wanted good baseball news?  Sorry, I don't have any of that.

Seriously, Any good news?: Well, I don't hate Toronto's bullpen.  I don't love it, but I don't hate it.

Bad News: Adam Lind followed a break-out 2009 by hitting .237 and .251 the next two seasons.  Jose Bautista's steroids suspension has to happen eventually (sorry, I meant to say that I'm sure he's perfectly clean, because it's totally reasonable for a 30-year-old player to suddenly become awesome at hitting, and I know this because I learned nothing from the late 90's).

Anything else we need to know?: I kinda thought Toronto stole Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, but it's starting to seem more like St. Louis knew something that Toronto (and I) didn't know.  That was actually probably more likely all along.

Prediction: Last place.  It's not that Toronto is so awful, but they aren't good and this division is.

It's Baseball Time Again! - NL East

Remember when, sometimes, I used to write stuff about sports? I don't remember that either, but my blog's archives swear it happened. Let's see if I can get through all six divisions without comparing a position battle to Mitt Romney vs. Rick Santorum.

There's something reassuring about the beginning of baseball season. Baseball isn't the best sport to watch on TV, or the best fantasy sport (football). It isn't the most fun sport to watch in person (hockey). It isn't the sport that gives you the most "holy crap! I can't believe he just did that!" moments (basketball). But there is something about baseball. It's like an old friend that comes back every spring, no matter what. It's comforting.

Let's start with the NL East, because, honestly, I can't wait any longer to make fun of the Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies

Good News: For starters, those Halladay, Lee and Hamels fellas are still pretty good. Off-season addition Jonathan Papelbon gives them a closer with a proven post-season track record, as opposed to the unproven but talented Ryan Madson. Papelbon is still hit or miss sometimes, but nobody is more hit or miss than Brad Lidge was, so the Phillies are ready for that. Phillies fans won't mind a full season of Hunter Pence, either. And Hunter won't mind a full season of Citizens Bank Park.

Bad News: This team isn't any worse than they were last year, but they aren't really that much better either, and how did last year turn out? Also, Chase Utley's brain may be 33, but the rest of his body appears to be in its mid to late 60's.

Anything else we need to know?: For those Phillies fans who have been patiently waiting for Domonic Brown, it appears you may have to keep waiting. He's 24 now. I'm starting to worry.

Prediction: The Phillies are tough for me. They're good enough to win the division, and they have the pitching to win in the post-season, and yet...for a championship or bust team, I think this year turns out to be another bust.

Washington Nationals

Good News: Stephen Strasburg is back, and the Nationals were the clear winners of Oakland's pitching fire sale (if you offered me Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey for Gio Gonzalez, I wouldn't take it). Jayson Werth can't be any worse than he was last year (right?). Brad Lidge (23K's in 19.1 innings after coming back from injury last year) joins Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen in what should be a serviceable bullpen, even after Lidge's shoulder explodes in mid-May.

Bad News: They're still the Nationals. There are only two kinds of people who do baseball predictions, people who pick the Nationals to win stuff, and people who get things right.

Anything else we need to know?: Bryce Harper is on the way. He should be crushing 800 foot homeruns in Washington by the end of the summer. When he gets there, we'll find out if Jayson Werth can still play centerfield, I suspect he can't. But who cares...Bryce Harper is on the way!

Prediction: The Nationals will take one of the NL wild cards, partially because they're pretty good, and partially because they get to play the Mets a bunch of times. In other news, reports from hell say the weather is getting "pretty chilly down here".

Miami Marlins

Good News: Opening day - "It's a beautiful April day here in sunny Miami, and Marlins fans are excited for what should be the team's best season in years. Miami has young power throughout its line-up, world class speed at the top of the order and a solid pitching staff anchored by the returning Josh Johnson and free agent pick-ups Mark Buehrle and veteran closer Heath Bell. Expect the Marlins to contend all the way through September this year folks!"

Bad News: Sometime around game 70 or 80 - "More bad news today for the Marlins, folks. Jose Reyes and his pulled hamstring will join Heath Bell and Josh Johnson on the DL. Bell is still reportedly at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound again, and no timetable has been set for Johnson. Reyes' absence only exacerbates the on-going Hanley Ramirez saga, as Hanley and the team still haven't talked since he demanded a trade and walked out on the team 10 days ago. In other news, still no sign of Carlos Zambrano, who hasn't been seen since he reportedly went to visit Key West on an off day in May, though he did recently send a cryptic text message to manager Ozzie Guillen which simply read 'TEQUILA!', so we know Carlos is alive."

Anything else we need to know?: Maybe changing his name to Giancarlo will result in less strike-outs for Mike "Giancarlo" Stanton, but I don't think that's actually how it works.

Prediction: As you may have guessed from my bad news synopsis, I don't see this season going particularly well for Miami, but they are talented and can probably finish around .500.

Atlanta Braves

Good News: Venters and Kimbrel potentially give Atlanta a lock-down bullpen, so they won't lose too many games when they're leading after 7. Also, I'm always sort of lukewarm on Atlanta, and I'm usually wrong.

Bad News: Atlanta's rotation worries me. I'm not sold on a May 1st return date for Tim Hudson. I'm concerned about a 25 year old future ace who already missed a chunk of one season with shoulder tendonitis (Tommy Hanson). I'm not convinced Brandon Beachy can continue striking out almost 11 batters per nine innings. I don't understand why Jair Jurrjens can't go more than six innings, or stay healthy. All of these things worry me.

Anything else we need to know?: All bets are off if Jason Heyward has the season in 2012 that we all expected in 2011. Heyward is the kind of guy who can carry an offense all by himself if he gets right and gets going. You just have to ask yourself if he's ready to do that yet.

Prediction: I say not yet for Heyward, and 4th place for Atlanta, but all four of these teams can be pretty good, and a wild card for Atlanta wouldn't shock me.

New York Mets

Good News: See, the thing about the Mets is...because, ya know...and it's just...I mean...so...yeah.

Bad News: I don't even know where to start. The fruits of what was possibly the worst minor league system in baseball over the last decade are now starting for the big league club. The Mets' most exciting prospect of the last few years (Jenrry Mejia) is coming off Tommy John surgery and probably won't pitch anywhere until August. Jason Bay is still missing in action. Johan Santana is back, and throwing in the mid-80's. I could go on.

Seriously, any good news?: Well, Mets fans will enjoy Zack Wheeler eventually, but not this year, and probably not next year either. But you know what, Mets fans? You still live in New York, which is still better than rooting for a good team and living somewhere else.

Anything else we need to know?: One of the first things I ever wrote about baseball was how I would not want to be the team paying Johan Santana big money for the second half of his career. Two years later, that remains possibly the most true thing I've ever written.

Prediction: Any story this year about the Mets winning the NL East will have to be immediately proceeded by the story about the team planes of the other four teams in this division being involved in a disastrous mid-air collision.

The Curious Case of the Mets

In general, I don't believe in anything, or I at least try not to believe in anything. I try to know things, knowledge being belief in something that is true. We can't always know what is true, but we can try to find out.

So, I don't believe in god, or gods, or superstition. I don't believe in fate or destiny. I don't believe in ghosts or spirits. I know sometimes people can get lucky, but I don't believe a person, or a group, or a team can be consistently lucky or unlucky. I certainly don't believe in curses. And yet, there's the curious case of the New York Mets.

As a native New Yorker, the Mets were always somewhere on my TV. I would watch them whenever the Yankees were off, or rained out, or playing at a different time, or playing Baltimore for the 15th time and I just couldn't stand it anymore. I'm happy to root for the Mets as long as they aren't playing the Yankees (which, incidentally, should happen never unless they meet in the World Series; I hate interleague play SO MUCH).

I worry about the Mets. In the 24+ seasons since the 1986 World Series victory, here are some numbers on the B team in the nation's biggest market (which, of course, rightfully means they should be the best team in the National League):

11 losing seasons (including 103 losses in 1993, which put them 5 games behind the expansion Marlins)
11 different managers
4 playoff appearances
1 World Series appearance

And the playoff appearances...oh, the playoff appearances, almost tailor-made to slowly drive fans into insanity.

1988: The Mets go up 2-1 in the NLCS before losing two home games, only to win game six in Los Angeles and then ultimately get shut down by Orel Hershiser in a game 7 that was over after two innings.

1999: After falling behind Atlanta 3-0, the Mets fight back to make it a series with two one-run victories, including a 15-inning game 5 win in which they were down one going into the bottom of the 15th. Then, they lost game 6 by the score of 10-9 in extra innings after overcoming a 5-run first inning deficit.

2000: The Mets finally get all the way back to the World Series, only to have their pants pulled down on national television by a cross-town rival that simply had them outgunned. The Yankees never had a doubt, the Mets never had a chance.

2006: Game 7 against the spectacularly mediocre Cardinals. Down two, bases loaded, two outs. Carlos Beltran, easily the Mets' best player that season, watches somberly as strike three sails right on by, almost like he was thinking "OK, I've got him right where I want him, when he tries to throw strike four by me, I'm gonna hit it out of the park!".

What's wrong with the Mets? Why aren't they the best team in the National League, the one that New York deserves? Some people go right to ownership. As far as I'm concerned, the owner's only job is to provide money, and the Mets have been top 10 in payroll every year since 1986, including 2003 when they were second and still managed to lose 95 games. Say what you want about the Mets' ownership, they put up the cash.

Poor management then? Maybe, Omar Minaya made a lot of mistakes. Letting Willie Randolph, the best manager the team had since Davey Johnson (you heard me!), go in 2008 when the team was just one game under .500 was a huge blunder. But then, so was letting Davey Johnson, the most successful manager in Met history, go in 1990 when the team was 2 games under .500 just 42 games in. Omar was scouting for the Texas Rangers when that happened.

Omar signed a ton of bad contracts too. Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez were disasters. He overpaid for Carlos Beltran by at least 20 million dollars, and don't even get me started on Jason Bay. But Omar wasn't there for Bobby Bonilla, or Vince Coleman. He wasn't even the one who signed Kaz Matsui.

The Mets failed miserably, over and over again, to properly develop young talent under Omar Minaya. Lastings Milledge never panned out, and Fernando Martinez already looks pretty much ruined. Mike Pelfrey could have been an ace, but now it looks like he's rounding into a guy who can be the number 3 starter on a championship team.

But failure to properly handle prospects goes back 20 years for this franchise. Remember Gregg Jefferies? A constant disappointment with the Mets who left, spent a year toiling in Kansas City and then hit .342 and .325 in back to back years in St. Louis. I could fill this space just with names of talented guys who never panned out or good young players the Mets traded away (like Heath Bell, Scott Kazmir, Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, Bill Pulsipher, Milledge again just for fun, etc, etc, etc).

I've recently started to think the Mets' training staff may be to blame. How do you constantly have this many injuries to key guys? I understand Pedro Martinez was an injury risk when they signed him, everyone knew they wouldn't really get four full years from Pedro. Carlos Beltran seems to be falling apart, but maybe he's just getting older. Jason Bay played in at least 145 games every year since 2005, until last year. But maybe he's just getting older too. Maybe Jose Reyes is just injury prone. Maybe Johan Santana was always heading toward shoulder surgery. Maybe David Wright's recent back problem was just a freak thing. Maybe...maybe...maybe, but why are all these things happening to the same team?

I look at the Mets this year and I can't decide if they should go for the wild card or trade some key guys and start rebuilding. Currently, the Mets are two games over .500 and 7.5 games back of Atlanta in the wild card standings, and that's with, arguably, three of their best five players (Wright, Davis and Santana) on the DL, and a fourth one (Reyes) probably heading in that direction. If the Mets got all of those guys back by August 1st, and maybe added another pitcher (I'd love to see them add a #2 starter if they could find one), they could be a serious wild card contender.

On the other hand, this is probably their last chance to get something for Beltran, and they may have already missed the boat on getting something for Reyes while he was healthy. If they dealt Beltran, Reyes (if the injury isn't serious) and K-Rod, they could really stock a farm system that's currently running on empty. Additionally, the Mets (or Braves, or Diamondbacks, or Pirates or anyone else in the NL) have almost no shot at getting past the pitching in Philadelphia and San Francisco, so is it worth it for the Mets or anyone else to push knowing a playoff berth will ultimately end badly?

I think so. A healthy Met team, even with automatic outs at catcher and second base, can out-hit Philadelphia and San Francisco. If they were to add a legitimate #2 starter, that guy could join a healthy and fresh Santana, a solid #3 in Pelfrey and the emerging Dillon Gee or Jonathon Niese in a pretty formidable playoff rotation. You can't really count on the Mets' bullpen, but you can't really count on anyone's bullpen.

I said at the beginning of the season the Mets had "nobody believed in us" written all over them. That's even more true now with all the injuries. It's amazing what a competent manager can do with some talented players. I think the Mets should go for it, keep all the key guys and make one or two additions (namely, a starting pitcher. I've decided Chad Billingsley should be available. I'd suggest adding a second baseman, but I honestly can't think of one that might be available and worth anything).

If they can just get to the post-season, anything can happen, unless they're cursed. But even if they are cursed, they should still go for it. A cursed team can't win the World Series, but rebuilding won't help either, so they might as well have some fun before dumping another season into the black hole of losing. And I'll be rooting for them, because if they get to the World Series, I can't imagine they'll find the Yankees there. Just the thought of needing wins from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in October makes me a little queasy.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL East

Quick thought before we start. I'm tired of hearing people knock Charlie Sheen. I understand that most of us wouldn't enjoy, or even be able to survive, Charlie Sheen's life, but Charlie is enjoying the shit out of it. Why should he apologize for that? And his show sucks, so who cares anyway? On to the baseball...

Philadelphia Phillies
Opening Thought: "...and six months ago, when Doug introduced me to you guys I thought, wait a second, could it be? And now I know for sure, I just added two more guys to my wolf-pack. Four of us wolves, running around the desert in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine."

Roy Halladay has to be pretty psyched right now, right? Two years ago his prime was rotting away, perpetually in fourth place in Toronto. Now? His team practically has a bye to the world series. This literally couldn't have worked out any better for him.

Off-season: Who knew the Phillies would win the Cliff Lee sweepstakes? Even Lee had to be a little surprised when he signed with a team that didn't even really need him, to the point that it traded him...last year. I thought, for a while, maybe Philadelphia would trade one of the other pitchers they have for a big bat (say, Hamels and Howard for Pujols and Westbrook), but it looks like they're keeping everyone.

Questions: Who becomes the fifth starter for this team? Does Jimmy Rollins have anything left?

Answers: Who cares (although I actually like Kyle Kendrick over Joe Blanton) and I think so. I'd be worried about Rollins if I were a Philly fan, but he's only 32. I have to believe a healthy Rollins has at least one more good year in him.

My Favorite Thing: Ummmm, I'm gonna have to go with starting pitching. Random fun baseball fact. The 1971 Baltimore Orioles were the last team to have four 20-game winners on one staff. Just sayin'.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: This is a tough one. The Phillies struggled to score runs last year, and losing Jayson Werth won't help. Also, Brad Lidge only has two speeds, unhittable and totally awful, which makes the Philadelphia bullpen a little unpredictable. However, the bullpen also features Ryan Madson and a surprisingly effective Jose Contreras. In right field, top prospect Domonic Brown, who hit .327 in the minors last year, should be ready to replace Werth.

Closing Thought: Baseball's weird sometimes and teams that look too good to be true frequently are, but this team looks crazy on paper.

Prediction: First place, Philly fans can start buying world series tickets now.

Alright folks, that's it for the NL East, next week, we start the Americ....wait, what? You're saying there are other teams in this division? Hold on, I'll be right back...Hey! You were right.

New York Mets
Opening Thought: You heard me!

This isn't some kind of reverse jinx. I told you already, the Mets/Yankees rivalry is nonsense. MLB and ESPN just made it up to get you to watch their crappy interleague games. I'm rooting for the Mets, New York deserves two good teams.

Off-season: I would have liked to have seen the Mets get in on the Cliff Lee bidding, they desperately need another top end starter. Having said that, the Mets made a lot of little pick-ups this off-season that I think will help them. Scott Hairston is a nice player with a lot of flexibility and they added some bullpen depth. Not the splashiest off-seasons, but I think they got a little better.

Questions: Can this team tread water until Beltran and Santana get back? When will Luis Castillo's awful contract end?

Answers: Maybe and seemingly never (but actually after this season). I actually wouldn't hold my breath for getting anything useful from Santana or Beltran this year, but I think it's possible the rest of this team could contend on their own.

My Favorite Thing: I don't see why the Mets can't score runs, even without Beltran. Reyes should be healthy, they still have David Wright and Jason Bay and Ike Davis. Davis, by the way, in only 23 and should get noticeably better. I know Citi Field isn't exactly hitter-friendly, but the teams they're playing have to play there too and the Mets look to me like a team that should be able to produce enough runs to win more than they lose.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Starting pitching. Hopefully, at some point this season, Met opponents will, once again, find out that you don't mess with the Johan. Until then, this staff is a disaster with nobody that even resembles an ace. If you're sitting in the first few sections of outfield seats when the Mets visit your team, bring a glove, and maybe a helmet.

Closing Thought: Everybody's clear now on why the Twins couldn't get anything good for Santana, right? I'm not saying the Mets shouldn't have made the trade, they got an ace for what amounted to a few spare parts. But we all see why now, right? Santana was an "injury-plagued second half of his career" guy waiting to happen, and now it's happening.

Prediction: Second place and who knows. I like the Reds for the wild card, but the Mets have "nobody believed in us" written all over them.

Atlanta Braves
Opening Thought: If Atlanta continues being the worst sports city in America can we, at some point, start confiscating their teams?

Off-season: The big trade for Dan Uggla highlighted Atlanta's off-season. Uggla is 30 now, he was never a .300 hitter and last year was his first season over .260 since 2006, but, he's good for 30 home runs and he was always better on the road for Florida. I'm willing to call this a nice pick-up.

Questions: Who closes games for Atlanta? Is Jason Heyward ready to carry this offense?

Answers: You're probably looking at closer by committee in Atlanta. As for Heyward, I don't think so. Heyward is a great talent, but he's still only 21. If I'm the Braves, I'm just hoping he gets through the season healthy so I don't have to starting worrying that he's injury-prone.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching, but with one caveat. I love Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens, who just turned 25, is always good for a quality start. Add Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson and this rotation should be very good. The caveat? Lowe is 37 and can't do this forever. Hudson turns 36 this summer and isn't exactly the picture of health. More on this later.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Hasn't this always been the story in Atlanta? Quick hint for all MLB teams, never sign a reliever that once played for Joe Torre unless his name is Mariano. The Braves have two of them.

Closing Thought: I could go either way on the Braves. Something feels a little off about this team. I'm looking at Lowe and Hudson and thinking if they both start breaking down this year, could this be sort of a lost season for Atlanta? Maybe. On the other hand, if they both have one more good year left, this team could compete for a wild card.

Prediction: Third place, could be better, could be worse.

Florida Marlins
Opening Thought: "Lois, when I'm done with them, our kids will be so smart they'll be able to program their own VCR's without spilling piping hot gravy all over myself."

I feel like we're always waiting for Florida's kids to grow up. We're always one or two years away from them being really good, but we're never sure if we'll actually get there or if they'll just drop the kids off in Boston and New York before they're fully mature. Small market baseball, catch the fever!

Off-season: Dan Uggla out, Javier Vazquez in. I think Florida is banking on Vazquez being good again when he comes back to the NL, but at some point, he's just old, right?

Questions: How good is Mike Stanton? Can Hanley Ramirez carry this team to the post-season?

Answers: 22 home runs in 359 big league at-bats last year, and he's 21. So I'm going with pretty damn good. As for Hanley, I've seen no evidence that he can carry a team anywhere, except maybe a fantasy team.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Big season coming up for 27-year-old Anibal Sanchez. Write it down.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Rumors I've already read out of Florida's spring training camp about possible concerns with Josh Johnson's shoulder, or elbow, or back, or whatever. Spring training rumors about a pitcher being hurt rarely end well.

Closing Thought: Florida's offense leaves me cold. Hanley Ramirez is more of a stat monster than anything else and Mike Stanton is still probably a year or two away from being able to add a high average to his power.

Prediction: Fourth place. Another forgettable season in Miami.

Washington Nationals
Opening Thought: "Trying is the first step towards failure."

Off-season: Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche. What's going on here? Are the Nationals actually trying? My whole world is upside down, I'm starting to get a headache.

Questions: Will Livan Hernandez ever be finished? Can Adam LaRoche produce in the first half of a season for once?

Answers: Yes, stay tuned and no, probably not. Can't they just tell LaRoche it's July now?

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Werth has a year or two before his contract becomes awful and the Nationals still have Ryan Zimmerman and Nyjer Morgan. When Adam LaRoche shows up for the second half, this team should score.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. We'll see Stephen Strasburg in 2012 and until then, yuck.

Closing Thought: It'll be pretty sad if Washington actually tries once and still finishes last. To be honest, I kind of hope I'm wrong about this.

Prediction: Fifth place. Honestly, I'm not really sold on anyone is this division after Philadelphia. If Washington and the Mets finished in opposite positions from where I have them, it wouldn't shock me. Still, I can't believe the Nationals as contenders until I see it.

New Toys

The trade deadline is one of the best parts of the baseball season, so much better than the deadlines in the other sports. The combination of the deep minor league systems and the clear distinction between contenders and non-contenders creates plenty of movement and the chance for us to see good teams get some new toys to play with.

In contrast, nothing ever happens at the football deadline. The basketball deadline is OK, but nothing special (plus, the basketball deadline, for the last few years, has been less about teams getting better and more about the endless quest for cap space). And hockey, well, as I've mentioned before, hockey doesn't really appear on my TV anymore.

As a fan, it's always fun to speculate on where different guys might end up, so let's do that.

The Yankees are the best team in baseball, and some people would say that means they don't need anything. Not me. I think the Yanks need a pitcher. I feel like Dan Haren might wind up in New York, but I really don't think he's a good fit. He's a terrible second half pitcher and he'll give up a ton of homers at the stadium. I'd look for the Yankees to go outside the box a little bit. Watch for them to make a run at the Royals, for Joakim Soria or Zack Greinke, or both.

The Mets are a catastrophe. I've watched the Mets quite a bit since the all-star break, they are awful. Unfortunately, the Mets don't really have any prospects that anyone else wants, and they don't really have anywhere to put a new bat. Maybe Brett Myers goes to the Mets, he can start or pitch the 8th inning. That's probably the best they can do. I also hear the Mets have been shopping Jeff Francoeur around. Good luck with that. A power hitter who doesn't get on base and really doesn't hit home runs anymore, where do I sign up?

Sidenote: The Mets really need a new manager. Jerry Manuel is awful, AWFUL! How awful? I saw him bring Oliver Perez into a game yesterday. I rest my case. Hey, they should get Willie Randolph! Oh wait, they already fired him for no good reason. Oh well.

The Red Sox don't really have anywhere to put a new bat or a new pitcher. I'd watch for them to add to their bullpen, if they do anything. What they really need is a doctor, Boston's season has been murdered by injuries. They should trade for House, the entire cast of Scrubs or Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman.

Tampa needs a right fielder. I've heard reports about them sniffing around Philly's Jayson Werth, but I'm not buying it. I don't see the Phillies quitting on this season, so they'd need something back that can help them right now. From Tampa, that's probably James Shields or Matt Garza, and I don't see Tampa doing that. I'd probably bet on Tampa doing nothing. Too bad they can't trade for a new stadium, the Pirates have one they're barely using.

Speaking of the Phillies, I don't know what's going on there. They seem to need a bat too, but they're another team that doesn't really have anywhere to put one of those, which adds them to the list of teams looking to add a pitcher. I'm guessing Ted Lilly winds up in Philadelphia, they don't need an ace and they can get Lilly pretty cheap. Also, Lilly rhymes with Philly, so there's that.

I'm not sure the Braves need anything, they look really good, and they recently got Jason Heyward back healthy. They're pretty old at the corner infield spots, so maybe they add some insurance there. If Atlanta's really feeling froggy, watch for them to get in on Dan Haren. I wouldn't be shocked if Haren ends up in Atlanta.

The Cardinals got really jumpy around the deadline last year, hell of a lot of good it did them. This year, word is they'll have to trade top pitching prospect Shelby Miller to get anything interesting, and I'm not sure they're willing to do that. When I look at the St. Louis roster, I think they ought to be able to get it done with the guys they already have, and I think they'll come to the same conclusion.

Part of the reason I don't expect anything from St. Louis is I don't expect the Reds to do anything either. However, if the Reds make a big move, I'd expect to see St. Louis get serious again in the Oswalt/Haren discussion. If Oswalt goes anywhere, I'm betting it's St. Louis, but only after a Reds move. Actually, if I had to put money on it, I'd probably bet on Oswalt staying put. He's got a no-trade he needs to waive and a 2012 option he wants picked up, lots of moving parts there, those deals often get left on the table at the deadline.

The White Sox are my guess for the annual terrible deadline deal, overpaying for Livan Hernandez or Zach Duke seems right up Chicago's alley. Meanwhile, I don't see the Twins doing much because, well, they're the Twins. I would have said the same thing about the Tigers, but now Magglio Ordonez is hurt and I expect them to be looking for an outfield bat, maybe Jose Guillen.

I really like the Giants. Buster Posey is better than any hitter they could have traded for. If Pablo Sandoval has a good second half (I think he will) they can probably win the division. I still expect them to pick up an outfield bat. I wonder if they could get Cleveland to trade Shin-soo Choo (or as I call him, the choo choo train, all aboard!).

Don't ask me about the Padres, I still wouldn't be surprised if they finish under .500. Between them and the Mariners, I don't think I should try making picks for either western division next year. I stand by my pre-season assessment of Seattle's roster. What can I say? Baseball's crazy sometimes, and Milton Bradley's crazy all the time.

If I'm the Dodgers, I get some extra bullpen help. George Sherrill has been terrible. Also, Joe Torre has destroyed so many relief pitchers that he should have an arm surgery named after him, so they'll need someone for whenever Jonathan Broxton's shoulder explodes. Either way, unless they get Manny back healthy for the last two months, the Dodgers are heading for third place.

I don't like Colorado's chances. Ubaldo Jimenez doesn't look right anymore, and they can't win without him. They might add an outfield bat, but I bet they stay put.

Texas may be the only AL west team worth talking about, and they already made their move. I may be the last baseball fan in the world to be totally sold on Cliff Lee, but I'm sold now, Cliff Lee is the man. I don't see how the Angels catch Texas. The Angels are interesting because I could see them getting in on Oswalt or Haren, but I could also see them being sellers. Bobby Abreu would make an interesting addition to a lot of teams looking for an outfield bat.

So, to wrap up:
Oswalt - staying in Houston, or maybe going to St. Louis
Haren - Atlanta, or maybe the Yankees
Ted Lilly - Philadelphia
Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman - Boston
Jeff Francoeur - San Diego, serving drinks at a Chili's near the ballpark
Mets - Brett Myers and 81 wins.
Yankees - Zack Greinke and/or Joakim Soria
Padres - made a secret deal with the devil
Dodgers/Rockies/Angels/Brewers/Marlins/Mets/Blue Jays/Cubs - thanks for playing, see you next year.

Re-Mixed Bag

There's a lot going on in the sports world these days, but nothing I feel like writing a whole lot about. So, let's try another round of made-up questions from made-up readers.

Q: You're always going on and on about how great hockey is, so how come no hockey playoff picks? - Homer, Springfield.
A: Honestly, I'm just bitter about not being able to see the playoffs on TV. If I had made picks, I would have picked the Blackhawks over the Sabres in six. I like Buffalo because they've got the best goaltender. As for Chicago, I watched almost every Olympic hockey game. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane were the two best non-goaltenders in that tournament. They both play in Chicago.

Q: Any thoughts on Sam Bradford going number one in the NFL draft yesterday? - George J., the future.
A: I can't believe the Rams didn't take Ndamukong Suh. That's going to wind up being a HUGE mistake, an Oden/Durant level mistake. If you don't believe me, just ask the pile of bodies Suh left on the field after every Nebraska game last year. That dude is a monster, QB's in the NFC North better starting running now.

PS...I demand that Fox use Johnny Cash's A Boy Named Sue at least once during every Lions' game next year. I demand it.

PPS...yes, Greg Oden is the new Sam Bowie. Congratulations to Portland for making the exact same mistake twice. That really takes...umm...what's the oppostive of savvy.

Q: The Denver Broncos took Tim Tebow with the 25th pick in the NFL draft. Do you think that was a bad idea? - Eric, South Park, CO.
A: Bad idea? Trying to hook up with a stripper is a bad idea. Driving to the store to get cigarettes when you're so drunk that you want cigarettes even though you don't smoke is a bad idea. Tim Tebow in the first round was a terrible idea. Denver just blew a 1st round pick on a guy that will never be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Ever. Congratulations Broncos fans, I hope you enjoy the white Tommy Frazier, or as he was formerly known, Eric Crouch.

Q: If your favorite NFL team needed a QB, would you want them to give up some high draft picks for Ben Roethlisberger? - Peter, Quahog, RI.
A: Honestly, no. I'm not usually someone who cares about character, but the Roethlisbozo is a meat-head frat boy who doesn't appear to have the ability or the inclination to grow up. It's not like this is his first stupid incident. I have no confidence that this will be his last conduct suspension, so I'd stay away.

Q: You're a New York guy. Can you give me a good reason Mets' fans shouldn't all kill themselves? - Lion-o, ummm, I don't know where the Thundercats were from, my childhood?
A: Actually, I can, no fooling. Mike Pelfrey. I've seen every Pelfrey start this year, and this doesn't look like a hot start or a fluke to me. Pelfrey looks to be in total control out there, he looks like he figured something out. I think he'll finish the year with an ERA right around 3 and 15-18 wins. Considering how young he is, I think that's enough for Mets' fans to put down the cyanide. Come on, put it down. There you go.

Q: After almost completely leaving him out of all of your baseball previews, what are your thoughts about Jason Heyward? - Stan, Langley Falls, VA.
A: He's like a cross between Barry Bonds, Jesus and Superman. Seriously though, I'm pretty impressed. I can't wait for him to become a Yankee. Maybe we should trade Nick Swisher now just to make room.

Q: What's the most surprising thing about the baseball season so far? - Stewie, Quahog, RI.
I'd have to say it's the Red Sox. They really look awful. It's early, and Boston has the pieces to add players if they need to, but Tampa and the Yankees both look like 100-win teams. Boston can't afford to get too far back. If the Sox can't get it going, we could see the rare May trade.

Q: You picked the Washington Wizards to make it to the second round of the NBA playoffs. Is that the stupidest thing you've ever said? - Stan, South Park, CO.
A: I may have said something stupider at some point in my life, but it has to be the stupidest thing I've ever put in writing. In my defense, many players who started the year in Washington have a solid chance of going to the second round, maybe even further.

Q: Any thoughts on the Masters? - Pinky and the Brain, some kind of science lab.
A: I was rooting for Tiger for four days, right up until Phil won and hugged his wife and I remembered that Mickelson stuck by his wife when she got cancer and Tiger had sex with anything that moved. I guess what I'm saying is, hooray for Phil!

Q: Now that the playoffs have started, how are you feeling about your NBA picks? - Cleveland, Stoolbend, VA.
A: Pretty good. If you take out my previously mentioned disastrous Wizards prediction, I actually did a decent job, including being dead on about the Durants giving the Lakers a hard time in a first round series. I still like my Spurs-Magic finals, too.

I know the Spurs are a 7 seed, but I think they can roll past the Mavs and whoever they get in round two. I know the Lakers are still the favorite, but I've watched all three of their playoff games, something just looks off. The Spurs have the look of a team that's putting it together at the right time.

Then there's the Magic. I'd love to see the Bulls find a way to take four games from Cleveland, but it's probably not going to happen. I'm sure we're heading for the inevitable Magic-Cavs conference final. Betting on Vince Carter is basically like playing a slot machine, but I'm sticking with my pick. Magic over the Hype Kings in six.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL East

My original plan was to do two baseball previews, one for each league. I started thinking about how long those would get and I decided I had a better idea. So, we're doing a division a week from now until the start of the season (one week gets two divisions, so we'll find the two least interesting divisions and lump them together, I'm looking at you AL Central). We're leading off this week with the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are the undisputed king of this division. Fans of other teams in this division may want to seriously consider ignoring this season. Sure, you can compete for the wild card, but you still have to watch your team get bashed by the Phillies 19 times. And even if you survive that, make the playoffs and win your first round series, there's just another bashing waiting for you courtesy of the Phillies. Really not a lot of upside.

Off-season: The NL champs actually got slightly better over the winter. Placido Polanco and Roy Halladay are, at least, marginal upgrades over Cliff Lee and Pedro Feliz. I don't like overstating expectations for guys, but Roy Halladay in the National League? Is it possible for a pitcher to have a negative ERA? Actually, the part of the Phillies' off-season that should scare other teams the most isn't anyone they picked up. We'll get to that in a minute.

Line-Up: Even if Werth and Ibanez both take steps back this year, which is certainly possible, especially for Ibanez, this is still a very deep line-up for the NL. Great speed at the top and great power in the middle. They're lacking power at third base, but that weakness is really cancelled out by the above average power at second base. You also have to like their depth. Mayberry and Francisco could probably start for a lot of teams, one of those guys won't even be the fourth outfielder for the Phillies.

Pitching: I don't love the back end of the Phillies' rotation, I think Jamie Moyer is just about done (of course, I would have told you that five years ago, so who knows). I also think J.A. Happ takes a step back to reality this year. On the other hand, you already know about Halladay and I think Hamels is ready for a big season. They've also got some young arms that may be ready to step in and compete for that 5th starter role. The back end of the bullpen could be a problem. Brad Lidge may be the most fragile guy in sports, but look at it this way. There's no way Lidge could be anymore of a mess than he was last year, and they still got to the world series.

Final Thought: Remember what I said about the scariest part of the Phillies' off-season? Here it is. They managed to get Roy Halladay without giving up Dominic Brown or Kyle Drabek. So, if they have an injury or just struggle a bit early, and they need another bat or another arm in July, they have better top end trading chips than almost any other team.

Prediction: First place, maybe 100 wins and another world series appearance. Three years in a row is tough, but I don't see a team in the NL that can hang with Philadelphia.

Florida Marlins
It's easy to get excited about a team like Florida. Lots of brand name young talent, and young talent suggests endless possibilities. But here's some reality. This wasn't a playoff team last year, and most people thought the Marlins overachieved in 2009. I'm not saying they can't contend, especially for the wild card, but I am wondering what happens if Josh Johnson gets hurt, or Hanley Ramirez.

Off-season: It's tough being a Marlins fan in the winter. I mean, sure, it's sunny, and warm, and you had the superbowl this year and you can still go to the beach in December. But who cares about all of that? They don't sign anyone, if they make a big trade, it's usually to give away a top player. Where's the fun in that? They did sign Josh Johnson to a long term deal, so that's another young pitcher the Yankees can't have until he's not young anymore.

Line-Up: I don't hate this line-up, but I don't love it either. If Gaby Sanchez steps up and has a big year, then they could surprise me, but if he doesn't, I can't see Jorge Cantu having another 100 RBI season and Dan Uggla hit .243 last year. I don't know why anyone would throw a strike to Hanley Ramirez. And if Hanley gets hurt...this team doesn't have a big margin for error.

Pitching: I love the Marlins' starting pitching, probably even a little more than the Phillies'. Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are both aces in my book (that's Sean's Big Book of Aces, pick it up wherever imaginary books are sold), and Anibal Sanchez has ace stuff too (if he can stay healthy, which is a lot like when I said Gilbert Arenas could have a big year if he avoided doing something crazy). The bullpen is a different story. The bullpen always suffers on low budget teams, it's the last place most teams put any real money. On the plus side, Hayden Penn and Dan Meyer were both serious prospects at one point, so they've got some potential back there, but I'm not sold on Leo Nunez. The question becomes, if this bullpen can't hold leads, how long can the starters hold up going 8 or 9 innings every start?

Final Thought: The Marlins are always interesting around the trading deadline as a dark horse candidate to pick up someone big. They always have good prospects, but they're rarely willing to take on salary. Let's say Florida is five games back in late July. Could you see Manny Ramirez spending two months in Miami and leading them on an improbable playoff run? Me too.

Prediction: Second place. I think a lot of people will pick the Marlins for the wild card, not me. I think they're a bat short and they've got too many injury risks in the rotation.

Atlanta Braves
I'm not a big Bobby Cox guy. A homeless guy from outside Fulton County Stadium could have led Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz to 5 or 6 division titles in the 90's. I'm not saying he's a bad manager, I'm just saying he's not that much better than anyone else.

Off-season: The Braves added Troy Glaus, Melky Cabrera, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. If you're thinking "I don't really see any good ideas in there", you're not alone. Put me down for June 1st in the Billy Wagner season ending surgery pool, and he might be the best addition out of those four.

Line-Up: I like Nate McLouth, and I like Yunel Escobar, and that's pretty much it. "What about Brian McCann?", you ask. Well, Brian's OPS was .834 last year. Is that really what you want from the guy who's supposed to be your best hitter? Probably not. The Braves can score some runs, but not enough.

Pitching: This is a completely different team if Tim Hudson wins 20 games. Assuming that doesn't happen, I don't mind the Braves' pitching, but it doesn't blow me away. Derek Lowe can dominate the league for two months if he gets on a roll, but he can also be awful for a month. That's not great from your ace. Jair Jurrjens pitched to a 2.60 ERA last year, but only averaged just over 6 innings a start and only won 14 games with that ERA. There's a guy who can win 20 with a strong bullpen, but the Braves don't have one. Also, Tommy Hanson will be a stud someday, but I'm not wild about him this year.

Final Thought: I'm wondering if Lowe and/or a rejuvenated Hudson become available around the trading deadline. That could be the most interesting thing the Braves do all year.

Prediction: Text book mediocre team, 81-81, third place. It's ridiculous to pick exact records in baseball, but this makes so much sense for Atlanta. It'll be like they weren't even there.

New York Mets
I really don't know what I'd do if I were a Mets fan. If Mets fans were children, and the Mets were their parents, the state would have taken the children away by now. Somebody should kill Mr. Met so he can roll over in his grave.

Off-season: Jason Bay was a solid start, and then...well...Gary Matthews Jr., Rod Barajas, Josh Fogg, etc. Kelvim Escobar is already like one step away from being out for the year. I don't know what happened to Omar Minaya, but we need to keep it away from the Bronx.

Line-up: With all the bad things I have to say about the Mets, I actually don't mind their line-up. If everyone else is still standing when Beltran gets back, this team should actually score some runs. I wish they had a lefty other than Murphy, but Beltran's switch hitting will help with that too. Mets fans should keep an eye out for Ike Davis. No one screws up prospects quite as efficiently as the Mets, but this guy might be can't miss. If Murphy struggles, and I think he will, you might see Davis sooner than later.

Pitching: Here's the thing about the Mets' pitching. I like everyone they have individually, but I hate them all on the same team. I'm not sold on Johan Santana's long term health. Every time I see John Maine pitch I really like his stuff, but he can't get through a season healthy. Oliver Perez is talented, but he also has health concerns on top of conditioning problems and general sanity issues. And the bullpen is just a mess. I don't have a problem with K-Rod, but how do they plan to get to him?

Final Thought: One of the Mets' biggest problems in the total lack of organizational depth. Even if they had been willing to pay him, they couldn't get in on the Halladay sweepstakes because they didn't really have anything Toronto wanted. They don't really have much anybody wants. So even if they can start fast and stay close, they can't add an impact player at the deadline. On the bright side, they're apparently five deep at catcher, so there's that.

Prediction: Fourth place. The Mets actually have enough talent to be better than this, but there's also a lot of risk here. If the Mets start slow and get hurt again, this could turn into a total disaster.

Washington Nationals
This is the fun part about baseball. Are the Nationals an atrocious team? Of course they are. Will they spend the season getting pounded by the rest of the NL? Hell yes. We know this because, well, this is what always happens to the Nationals, and it was happening to the Expos for years before that. Having said all that, take a look at the Nationals' roster, especially the line-up. Tell me I couldn't talk you into 85 wins for this team. I bet I could.

Off-season: Some interesting pick-ups for Washington. Jason Marquis, Pudge, Brian Bruney, Adam Kennedy, Matt Capps. The Nationals added veterans in a way that suggests they think they can contend. This team was terrible last year, so you'd have to think any set of off-season moves would have made them better, but I'm genuinely intrigued here.

Line-up: This is the part I really like about this team. Even if you assume that Elijah Dukes is too crazy to play a full season, which he almost certainly is, you still have Zimmerman, Dunn, the very underrated Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan (you heard me, Morgan hit .351 last year after he got traded to Washington). I honestly like this line-up as much as any line-up in the division other than Philadelphia. This team can score runs.

Pitching: Unfortunately, here's where disaster strikes for the Nats. They made some upgrades here, this is the first time in a while Washington has an opening day starter I've heard of, so that's a good start. Still, this team will give up a ton of runs. Fans sitting in the first few rows of the outfield seats should bring gloves, or helmets.

Final Thought: When are we going to see Stephen Strasburg? I'm still betting on opening day. Nothing draws fans like a must see starter going out there every five days. On top of that, Strasburg is, right now, the best pitcher in the Washington organization, at least from a pure stuff standpoint. I don't see a lot of upside in holding him back.

Prediction: The smart money still has Washington in last place. But you can definitely add some wins to last year's total and maybe, just maybe, they can get out of the basement (OK, probably not. Hey, can I get some Expos throwback uniforms this season? How hard is that?).

Hot Stove Episode Three: Return Of The Hot Stove

Welcome to my last bit of commentary on baseball's incredibly fun off-season. In about a month, I'll do pretty big season previews and picks for both leagues. But that's next month. For the moment, let's wrap up the hot stove league and get ready for pitchers and catchers.

Now, I'm a pretty rational guy. Sure, I sound pretty confident in my opinions, and I do like calling people stupid (especially the stupid people, they're so stupid), but if you come back at me with a rational argument, I'm usually at least willing to debate respectfully. When it comes to baseball, however, you can either agree with me or you can sit there and be wrong, it's up to you (OK, if I'm going to keep doing this for a while, I'm gonna need a sarcasm font).

Let me first say that I now understand why sequels are usually not as good as the first movie, and why the third movie in a trilogy is usually even less...as good. Neo can't discover the matrix again, Michael J. Fox can only go back to the future so many times before we stop caring, nerd revenge gets boring after a while and John Lackey and Jason Bay can only sign with one team (by the way, if you want to laugh your ass off for a good 20 minutes, go to wikipedia and look up a list of movie trilogies. The fact that people decided to make two more of some of those movies is life changing information. And if you want to laugh your ass off for hours and hours, go to a site called conservapedia and look up, well, anything). The trades and signings are less interesting by this point in the off-season, but luckily, like most trilogies, sometimes they're also more ridiculous (I'm looking at you Omar Minaya), and that's right up my alley.

I continue to love what the Seattle Mariners are doing with this off-season. They signed Felix Hernandez to a long term deal and picked up Casey Kotchman and Ryan Garko. The King Felix deal means they get three or four more years of his work before they have to start thinking about trading him to Boston or New York again. Kotchman is a better player than we've seen him be since he got shipped out of LA, and I think we'll see that this year if he gets to stay somewhere and be wanted for a full season. Garko makes a solid DH for whenever everyone figures out that Griffey is done (which should happen sometime around April 7th). In my first hot stove post, I said I thought Seattle needed one more bat. Since then, they've picked up three or four. Mission accomplished. I don't want to give away too much before next month's season previews, but I bet you can guess who I have winning the AL west this year.

Speaking of the AL west, the Rangers signed Vladimir Guerrero. I'm not sure what Texas is up to here. Every summer, a Rangers team that was promising early on falls off in August because they play in Texas and it's 110 degrees at night. Now they're stocking up on guys who can't stay healthy in normal human weather (Hamilton, Harden, Vlad). I like all those guys individually, but on the same team, in Texas? I don't see this ending well.

Speaking of not ending well, what the hell is going on with the Mets? Gary Matthews Jr.? Gary Matthews Jr.!?! I know it was sort of a panic move after Beltran had what appeared to be surprise surgery, but GARY MATTHEWS JR!?! The 35 year old who had one good season, and two more halfway decent seasons? And the one good season, 2006, was followed by his name being tied to an HGH scandal? I know they only had to pick up about $2 million of his salary. I wouldn't pay two dollars to have Gary Matthews Jr. play for my team. But don't worry Mets fans, because you also picked up Josh Fogg, Fernando Tatis and Frank Catalanotto. How long after signing his contract do you think it took Jason Bay to immediately regret that decision? Ten minutes? Five seconds? I feel sorry for Mets fans. If I was a billionaire, I'd buy them all ice cream, or strippers, their choice, whatever would make them feel better. What a disaster. If the Mets win 85 games this season, Jerry Manuel should get a lifetime contract extension and immediate admission to Cooperstown.

I've become slightly intrigued by what the Oakland A's are doing (when did this become the AL west blog?). I really like the Ben Sheets signing for them (sorry Mets fans, I thought I was done hurting you for today). Healthy Ben Sheets wins 17-20 games and makes the A's a contender, not healthy Ben Sheets means the A's do what we already expected them to do this year, not a whole lot. I like Coco Crisp for them too. I get fooled by Coco Crisp every year. I always think he's ready for a good year, I haven't been right yet, but I'll go to the well one more time. Their line-up still looks, um, awful, but the A's always look that way in February. Some years it turns out that way, some years we get surprised. We'll see, I'm interested though.

On to the usual Yankees/Red Sox border war. The Yankees added Randy Wynn, Marcus Thames and some other guys, including Royce Ring, who was a decently regarded prospect at one time and may be worth keeping an eye on. As a Yankees fan, I really couldn't be happier with how this off-season turned out. Right down to putting Joba in the bullpen and making Hughes the fifth starter.

Did you know the Red Sox picked up Jeremy Hermida? Me neither. It could be nothing, the Marlins apparently gave up on him, and they're pretty good with young talent. But Hermida was a big time prospect and he just turned 26. I'd keep an eye on that, Boston could have a real corner outfielder there. If I were a Red Sox fan, this Hermida thing would make or break the off-season for me. If he turns into a good everyday outfielder, you have to like the Sox. If he doesn't help them, they're one bat short.

Quick hits on some other transactions
Ryan Church to the Pirates: He had to be on someone's DL this year.
Big name Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman to the Reds: Um..what? That really came out of nowhere. Did the Yankees and Red Sox fall asleep? Is he the Cuban Hideki Irabu? I have to see how this plays out.
Aubrey Huff to the Giants: What's the difference between signing with the Giants and retiring? I'm not setting up a joke, I'm honestly asking.
Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome to the Twins: Unless those guys were signed because they have a secret plan to finish Joe Mauer's new deal, I don't care.
Brian Giles to the Dodgers: Hey, isn't that the guy who hit for the cycle the day Richard Nixon resigned?

Biggest free agents still available
Johnny Damon - Somebody's getting a pretty decent hitter once he lowers his ridiculous asking price, just don't expect him to steal 25 bases or play defense. He spent most of last season running like he was carrying Kevin Millar on his back.
Jarrod Washburn - Come on Mets, just throw your fans a bone. Washburn's a decent pitcher, and no one else seems to want him. You're going to need someone, at least to fill in while Oliver Perez is in AA working on his mechanics.
Russ Branyan - I'm a little surprised he's still out there. I wouldn't mind him as my team's DH. Just look at that cool name.
Pedro and Smoltz - I wouldn't touch either of these guys, but someone will.
Rocco Baldelli - I know, not exactly the biggest of names, but I'm keeping an eye on him. I haven't given up on Rocco. I remember Sports Illustrated once suggesting that Rocco could be the next Joe Dimaggio. That sounds like a guy someone could use.
Chan Ho Park - OK, that's it. When I'm considering writing a sentence about Chan Ho Park, you know it's time to stop commenting on the off-season and just wait patiently for spring training.

Hot Stove Reloaded

Two quick, unrelated comments before I jump back into the baseball off-season. First, Gilbert Arenas already gets my vote for athlete of the decade. For anyone who doesn't know the story, Gilbert was accused of brandishing an unloaded firearm in the Washington Wizards' locker room. This made some people, most notably NBA commissioner, and possible secret world overlord, David Stern, very sad. We were all waiting to see how long Gilbert's suspension would be when Agent Zero decided to lead his team in making fake gun motions with their hands during a pre-game huddle. This may be the single funniest thing I've ever seen happen in sports, and it's absolutely the first candidate and current front runner for moment of the new decade.

I have a question though. Where are all the right-wing gun nuts coming to Gilbert's defense now that some people are calling for him to be banned for life from the NBA for bringing an unloaded gun to a game? The gun was purchased legally, his only crime was bringing it into the District of Columbia, where the gun isn't registered. This seems right up the ring-wing's alley. Oh right, the second amendment was only meant to apply to white people, I always forget that. You know I'm right about this(and not just because I'm always right about everything). If this was a clean-cut, mid-western, white player, Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter would be staging a sit-in at the next Wizards game, and you can't tell me any different. I know Gilbert Arenas is completely out of his mind and is quite possibly the very last person that should be armed, but the gun people don't know this, they're too scared of the NBA to find this out. And just to be clear, I'm not calling the NBA racist for suspending Agent Zero, they don't really have a choice and they'd do this to any player who did what Arenas did. I'm calling the gun people racists for suddenly being so silent about gun rights when it's a black guy.

Also, baseball just elected it's next hall of fame class. Congratulations to Andre Dawson, who deserves to be in both the baseball hall of fame and the nickname hall of fame (The Hawk, we don't have nicknames like that anymore, sports nicknames today suck). Big thumbs down to the voters for missing on Robbie Alomar. Unless you're old enough to have seen Rogers Hornsby or Eddie Collins play, Alomar is the best second baseman you've ever seen. How about batting over .300 nine times? How about 12 all-star games, 10 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers and 2 world series rings? How about being a .300 career hitter even after decomposing on the field for three years with the Mets, Diamondbacks and White Sox? How about finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting five times? Or being a .313 career post-season hitter? Or 474 career stolen bases to go with his 210 home runs and 1,134 RBI?

How does he not get in? I don't understand how anyone sees the name Roberto Alomar on a ballot and thinks "no, not quite good enough." Is it really because he spit on an umpire once? Listen, I only played little league baseball, and if I'd punched every umpire I wanted to punch, I'd still be in prison. If he spit on umpires regularly, like once a week or something, then I'd say you have a case. But once? Come on. Moving on...

The Yankees traded for Javier Vazquez. I'm really torn on this one. I can see a lot on the positive side. First, I said last time the Yankees needed another starter, and Vazquez is better than any of the free agents still out there. Second, I've always been a big fan of Vazquez, and he seems to never get hurt, so he eats innings. Third, the Yankees got him for as close to nothing as you could get without just going to Atlanta and kidnapping him. Finally, he's coming off the best season of his life (15 wins on a mediocre team, lowest career marks for ERA and WHIP, 4th in Cy Young voting). All good things, right?

On the other hand, we've seen this movie before. And not just generically with pitchers coming over to the AL East from the National League, but with the actual Javier Vazquez. Here are Javier's ERA's and records in his four AL seasons:
2004 - 14-10, 4.91
2006 - 11-12 4.84
2007 - 15-8, 3.74
2008 - 12-16, 4.67
And the 2004 season was with the Yankees. This seems like a bad idea, right? If you caught chlamydia from a hooker six years ago, would you go back to the same hooker now just because she looks a lot cleaner these days? Probably not. And yes, I'm saying what Javier Vazquez gave the Yankees in 2004 is the baseball equivalent of chlamydia (I think this is a pretty good analogy, it's not the absolutely worst thing that could happen, but that doesn't make it good). In 2010? I think he can give the Yankees some solid innings, but I wouldn't keep my fingers crossed for more than 13-15 wins or an ERA below 4.

The Mets signed Jason Bay. I was mildly surprised by this. Which is handy, because Mets fans will be mildly entertained by Bay this year, and the team will be mildly improved. Bay can drive in runs, but it's not a magic trick, people have to be there for him to drive in. He's not a good outfielder, so I'm not sure Citi Field (roughly the size of Staten Island) is the best place for him. Basically, he makes the Mets better, but not that much better. He can't carry a bad team, but he can help a good one. Is the guy I just described worth $66 million over four years? I feel like he isn't. Especially when the Mets still need pitching.

The Mariners stayed busy, and they've officially become the team I'm watching closely. I loved the Milton Bradley move for them. Yes, now they have to sign somebody else to take over after Milton goes crazy. But until he goes crazy, he's the other bat I thought they needed. On the other hand, they traded Brandon Morrow to Toronto for Brandon League and a young outfielder. If the young outfielder turns out to be something, great. Until then, I'm not sure I get this move. This is a perfect example of a franchise drafting a guy with talent, completely destroying him to the point that they can't see ever getting anything out of him and then trading him for not that much in return. This happens a lot in baseball.

If I were a Red Sox fan, I wouldn't be wild about what the Sox are doing. Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron? Cameron is pretty far past what was a mediocre prime to begin with. Beltre is a better player than people think, but not that much better. People say the Beltre signing frees up Mike Lowell for a trade. Trade Mike Lowell? For what? He's about to turn 36 and he basically lives his life in surgery. I still like Boston's pitching, but I'm not crazy about their line-up right now, and it looks like they're basically done.

Hideki Matsui and Fernando Rodney to the Angels: Blah. Matsui came pretty cheap, but still.
Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom to the Astros: Picking up two closers doesn't help you if neither one of them is any good.
Mike Gonzalez and Kevin Millwood to the Orioles: I think the AL East could actually make Millwood cry. Mike Gonzalez scares me a little as a Yankee fan, luckily he's only healthy for about 4 games a year.

Finally, Matt Holliday stayed in St. Louis. I was pretty happy to see this. The Cardinals are a legit franchise, but they don't have all the money the Yankees and Red Sox have. I'm glad to see a big name guy sign on to stay there and play with Pujols. I think they probably overpaid a little for a guy who's probably a little overrated. I also think they're going to need a left-handed bat at some point. Still, I'm generally pretty high on this move. I'm a Yankee fan, but I'm also a baseball fan, I don't want one team to have all the good players, it's no fun that way.