MLB First Impressions - National League

...and now for the National League...

Washington Nationals
I'm not as crazy about Bryce Harper as I think some people want me to be, but the TV did remind me that he's a year younger than Mike Trout, so I guess we'll see.  Meanwhile, Washington added Dan Haren and Rafael Soriano, and Stephen Strasburg should be mostly free of innings limits this season.  Washington looks really really good.  Easy division winner.  Can we force them to move back to Montreal at this point?

Atlanta Braves
I've always said double the Upton equals double the awesome.  Why wouldn't you want both Upton brothers on your team?  Some things worry me about the Braves.  Tim Hudson is 37 and can't do this forever.  Kris Medlen has to regress a little bit, right?  The left side of the infield has a real "who the fuck are those guys?" vibe going.  Still, having an excellent bullpen and cornering the market on Uptons should be plenty to land Atlanta a wild card spot.

Philadelphia Phillies
Can we just fire Charlie Manuel now and get it over with?  On paper, this team still looks like it should be good, except that it isn't.  I've never trusted Cliff Lee, and I never will.  And now I'm hearing Roy Halladay and "decreased velocity" in the same sentence an awful lot.  And did you know Chase Utley is 34?  I didn't know that.  Yikes.  I love Cole Hamels, the rest of this is a disaster waiting to happen.

Miami and The Mets
Speaking of yikes.  Neither one of these teams has any redeeming quality that would allow me to choose one over the other.  If I have to pick one, I'll pick the Mets to finish just ahead of Miami, if only because the Mets are used to being depressing by now while the Marlins are still sort of reeling from the embarrassment that was last season.  The Mets also have David Wright, which I suppose is marginally better than not having David Wright. 

Cincinnati Reds
I looked at Cincinnati's depth chart and thought "Ryan Ludwick?  Still?".  But then I actually looked at his numbers from last year and they aren't half bad.  More importantly, I love everything about the Reds' pitching and they picked up the Choo Choo train.  All aboard for a division title!

St. Louis Cardinals
Word is Chris Carpenter is most likely done.  That's sad.  As for the rest of the Cardinals, there's so much about this roster that makes me nervous.  Jason Motte seems like one of those "hey, remember that brief period of time when that guy was good?" guys.  Beltran and Holliday are both guys who are older than you think they are, but also seem older than they actually are, if that makes sense.  I don't like what I'm seeing here.  Still second place though, because this division is terrible, even without Houston.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are a lot like the Royals only, unlike the Royals, they haven't yet bothered to go out and get some actual pitching.  Also, I don't know if the Pirates know this, but Russell Martin hit .211 last year.  Who signs that guy to be a starting catcher?  I'm sorry, I can't take the Pirates seriously until they start taking themselves seriously.

Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Braun is pretty good, so there's that.  I'm just so underwhelmed by the rest of this roster.  I thought we had all given up on Carlos Gomez.  Maybe I'll like them better when they get Corey Hart back.  Probably not though.  When does training camp start for the Packers?

Chicago Cubs
Talk about bottoming out.  Is Carlos Marmol still seriously the Cubs' closer?  They had all off-season to think about this and nobody had a better idea?  He's not even young anymore, he's 30.  And I don't even want to speculate about how old Alfonso Soriano is.  Theo Epstein better know what he's doing.  When people in Chicago get angry, shit goes down.

Arizona Diamondbacks
OK, usually when I think Arizona is going to the playoffs they wind up finishing last, so I apologize to D'Backs fans in advance, but I think Arizona wins the west.  Solid pitching, solid offense, solid everything.  Guys like Martin Prado and Cody Ross are really nice pick-ups.  They're the kind of guys you see filling roles on winning teams.  Also, remember the name Adam Eaton.

San Francisco Giants
Yes, Tim Lincecum is zeroing in on being finished, but the Giants still have Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, and the surprisingly adequate Barry Zito.  I really like this team, no great hitters, but lots of perfectly solid bats.  I think this is actually the best team in the division, but they'll be hurt by some early season Lincecum train wrecks before they figure out he's finished and I think they wind up settling for a wild card.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Hey, remember when everyone said you didn't want to sign Carl Crawford to a long term contact because he'll eventually lose a couple of steps and suddenly be very mediocre at best.  Well that's happening now, enjoy Dodgers fans.  The Dodgers have the potential to be legitimately not awful, but too many question marks for me.

Colorado Rockies
Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki have to be enough to make this team better than San Diego, right?  Right?  I heard the Rockies signed Jon Garland.  That's not a bad move, as long as this is 2005.  Is this 2005?

San Diego Padres
Add San Diego to the long list of teams that decided to try to turn a potentially excellent closer into a starter.  Too bad Andrew Cashner, you would have made a solid closer, instead you just go on the pile with Daniel Bard and Joba Chamberlain.  The Padres are a mess.  Can we relegate them and call up a triple A team?

National League MVP: Maybe if I keep picking Justin Upton I'll actually be right one year.
National League Cy Young: Cole Hamels!  Cole Hamels!
National League Champs:  This is tough.  Look, I'm going to have to pick Washington, but I don't have to like it.  I think the Nats lose to Tampa in the World Series.  There you go.

It's Baseball Time Again! - NL West

Is it possible that the best four teams in the National League all play in the eastern division?  After fighting my way through the NL Central, I've arrived at the NL West thinking, what fresh hell is this?  At least the Central has an excuse.  They lost Pujols, and Fielder, and failed to lose the Pirates.  The West was just as bad last year.  Time to demote them to non-BCS conference.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Good News: At 24 years old, I think Justin Upton is ready to move up a level or two, and I've got him as the NL MVP this year.  Newly acquired Trevor Cahill is also 24, and may also be ready for a big year.  Arizona doesn't have a lot of anything, but they've got a little bit of everything.

Bad News: Chris Young is still a .240 career hitter.  Add Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Hill and Miguel Montero and there are a ton of strike-outs in this line-up.  How many Justin Upton homers will be solo shots?

More Bad News: We've been down this road before.  Every time I pick the Diamondbacks they lose 90 games and make me look stupid.

Anything else we need to know?: After a fantastic 2011, some people think Ian Kennedy is ready to be the ace in Arizona for years to come.  I'm not convinced yet, but that's only because I've seen him pitch.

Prediction: First place.  And you know what? Behind Justin Upton, a solid bullpen and maybe one year of good luck with health, I'm putting Arizona in the world series.  I know what I just said about the East, but I just don't trust the Phillies in the post-season.

San Francisco Giants

Good News: Even though Jonathan Sanchez is gone, the Giants can still pitch with anybody.  Bumgarner was very good last year (3.21 ERA, almost a K per inning) and he's only 22.  Matt Cain is entering his prime now, and he was excellent last year (2.88 ERA, gave up 9 homeruns all year).  Also, Buster Posey is back, and hopefully he won't be blocking the plate this year.

Bad News: Even with Posey, the Giants still can't hit.  I'm still not sure what to make of Pablo Sandoval, and Brandon Belt looked overmatched last season when he got called up.  The guy they have penciled in at shortstop hit .204 in almost 200 at-bats last year.  I know Melky Cabrera hit .305 last season, but he's still Melky Cabrera.

Anything else we need to know?: My level of concern about Tim Lincecum remains at DEFCON 3.  I know last year was better than 2010, but his strike-out rate keeps dropping and with his size and his motion, I just keep thinking he can't keep it up forever.

Prediction: Second place, no post-season for the Giants.  I think they'll be a little better this year, but so will Arizona.

Colorado Rockies

Good News: Troy Tulowitzki can be an MVP candidate if he stays healthy (big IF), and so can Carlos Gonzalez.  Gonzalez regressed last year, but he was still pretty good (26HR, 20SB, .295 Avg) and he's only 26.  High end talent like that can keep Colorado competitive all year.

Bad News: The pitching staff seems to have gotten away from the Rockies a bit.  I like Jhoulys Chacin, but he didn't exactly pitch the lights out last year, and now he's supposed to be their number one guy?  I like Tyler Chatwood too, but he may not even make the rotation this year. Drew Pomeranz is probably a year or two away as well.  You can see hope down the road for the Rockies, but this year could get ugly.

Anything else we need to know?: Jason Giambi and Todd Helton sit together during games and reminisce about the dead ball era and what it was like facing Walter Johnson.

Prediction: Third place.  Could they make a run?  Sure.  Will they? I don't think so.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Good News: They still have Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  Kemp was all kinds of studly last year and probably should have been the MVP.  Kershaw was even better, going 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA on a team that was barely above .500.

Bad News: What's up with the rest of these guys?  Andre Either's power numbers of fallen off a cliff since 2009, but his strikeouts have stayed remarkably consistent.  Not a good combo.  I'm not sure Dee Gordon is ready for the big leagues yet.  James Loney's nearly robotic statistical consistency is nice, but it would be nicer if he was, ya know, better.

Anything else we need to know?: Anyone who cares about baseball in Los Angeles will be watching the Angels, and anyone who still cares about baseball in Brooklyn will be killing themselves after watching a Mets game.

Prediction: Fourth place.  It's hard to see this going any other way.  The Dodgers look clearly better than San Diego, but clearly worse than everyone else.

San Diego Padres

Good News: I guess the Padres can pitch a little.  Cory Luebke was solid as a starter last year, and ESPN describes Tim Stauffer as a "middle-of-the-rotation" force.  That's not awesome, but as a Yankee fan, I certainly wish we a had a couple of those last year.  Also, Huston Street should fill most of the Heath Bell void, until he gets hurt, which he will.

Bad News: So much bad news, although most of it doesn't qualify as news since everybody already knows the Padres are terrible.  But with Anthony Rizzo already somewhere else and Casey Kelly not exactly killing it in the minors, that Adrian Gonzalez trade looks like the Padres got robbed.

Anything else we need to know?: Did you know that it's still awesome to live in San Diego no matter how bad your baseball team is?  Well, Padres fans know that.

Prediction: Last place, don't get cute.  No surprises here.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL West

The 13 feet of snow lingering outside your window may serve as a cold reminder that it's still winter, but pitchers and catchers reported this week, which means it's almost time for baseball. This year, I'm starting with the NL West, because that's where the champs live. Also, it's the division I care about the least.

Colorado Rockies
Opening Thought: IF YA SMEEELLLLLLL....WHAT THE ROCKIES...ARE COOKIN'!

Did you know the Rockies finished tied for 13th in baseball in runs allowed last year? Is it possible that all the Coors Field hysteria we heard in this team's early years had less to do with the mile high air and more to do with the combination of awful pitching and steroid monsters that defined late 90's baseball?

Off-season: Colorado signed Jason Giambi to a minor league contract. Did they lose a bet? Are they thinking of him as a mascot? I guess anytime you can sign a guy who had 6 homeruns and 47 strike-outs for you in 176 at-bats last year, you have to do it. I'm not wild about the Jorge De La Rosa contract either. Over $10 million a year is a lot for a guy who's 29 and pretty much is what he is now. At least it's only for 2 years. Jose Lopez is an interesting pick-up, we'll talk more about him later.

Questions: How dominant can Ubaldo Jimenez be? I don't like the rest of Colorado's rotation that much, I think he'll need to carry them. How good can Carlos Gonzalez be? This line-up has nice pieces all over the field, but they need Gonzalez to be that big-time number three hitter who powers the offense.

Answers: Very dominant and extremely good. I'm all-in on Jimenez and CarGo. Ubaldo is right in the middle of what should be his prime. He slowed down after a fast start last year and I'm hoping he learned something about pacing himself. Gonzalez is 25 and hit .336 last year. If he can just learn to take a few more walks and strike-out a little less, he'll be a legit MVP candidate for the next seven years.

My Favorite Thing: I like Colorado's depth a lot. Ryan Spilborghs is a nice fourth outfielder who can hit lefties. Ty Wigginton brings some power and crazy versatility, as well as insurance at both corner infield spots if Ian Stewart can't get it together or if Todd Helton doesn't have another good year in him.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Huston Street spent plenty of time on the DL last year, and when he was healthy he wasn't that great (3.61 ERA, 5 blown saves in 25 opportunities). Only one of those blown saves came after August 20th and he finished strong, but I'm not convinced. Matt Lindstrom is an interesting plan B at closer, but he's 31 now and doesn't look to have much left. They could have some minor league help on the way, but for now this is a concern.

Closing Thought: Back to Jose Lopez. He had an awful 2010, but so did everyone in Seattle. In the two seasons before that, Lopez looked like a promising young second baseman (2008 - age 24, .297, 17HR, 89RBI; 2009 - age 25, .272, 25HR, 96RBI). At age 27, he moves into a better line-up and a better park for hitting. Either he has a big year or he's pretty much done.

Prediction: First place, probably not enough pitching to advance in the playoffs.

San Francisco Giants
Opening Thought: "There's two kinds of people in this world. Those who get stomped on and those who do the stomping...that famous guy said it. What's his name? Uh, oh yeah, Jesus!"

I could not have been happier for Giants' fans last fall when they won. The Giants always seemed like one of the quietly tortured franchises in sports. The rival Dodgers have a surprisingly high five world series titles since the move to LA (seriously, I know a lot about baseball and I wouldn't have guessed more than 3), while the Giants hadn't one won since 1954. Felt to me a lot like Yankees/Red Sox pre-2004, only without the unyielding hype. Anyway, good for them.

Off-season: I didn't like the Aubrey Huff signing last year, and even though I was wrong about that, I still don't like the re-signing this year, especially for a two-year deal when they've got Brandon Belt on the way up. I really don't like the Tejada deal, even for one year. Tejada is 36 (at least) and his .269 batting average last year was his worst since 2001. He's pretty much all downside. They've got a couple of promising young shortstops in their system, so maybe they just wanted a one-year stopgap guy, but still, the only way Tejada is worth $6.5 million this year is if he digs up $5 million while searching for buried treasure beneath McCovey Cove.

Questions: Can this team's pitching get its offense, which still looks awful, back to the post-season for a run at a repeat? Will there be a championship hangover? What happened to Pablo Sandoval?

Answers: Maybe, probably and I have no idea. If Pablo bounces back to form, I think he and Buster Posey can bring enough offense to carry this team to just enough wins, but Pablo was benched for most of the 2010 post-season, that's not great. I don't know where he goes from here.

My Favorite Thing: Obviously, that would be starting pitching. Don't expect another hot start from Barry Zito, but do expect a big year from Madison Bumgarner. Tim Lincecum's mid-year doldrums in 2010 should make Giants' fans a little nervous, but on paper, this rotation should be able to compete with anyone. The bullpen isn't bad either.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: It's a tie between offense and age. San Francisco's line-up has a weird mix of really young talent and really old guys who were never all that good to begin with. When you add the injury risk of "veteran" (old) guys to the relative lack of depth the Giants have, you get a formula for some interesting (and not in a good way) starting line-ups over the course of the season. That's especially true when their best hitter is a catcher who needs rest from time to time.

Closing Thought: As I look at this roster, I'm having a hard time figuring out how they won a world series with this team. I couldn't hate San Francisco's offense more. I'm all about the power of good pitching, but you have to score sometimes.

Prediction: Second place and probably no wild card. I just don't see it, but I didn't really see it last year either and they won it all, so there's that.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Opening Thought: "sometimes you think you have true love and then you catch the early flight home from San Diego and a couple of nude people jump out of your bathroom blindfolded like a goddamn magic show ready to double team your girlfriend."

In yet another example of why nobody should ever get married, divorce has ruined the Los Angeles Dodgers. The ownership situation in LA has been a catastrophe for what feels like forever now. The problem is, a big market team like LA can't just skip off-seasons like this. They missed out on Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, John Lackey last year, etc etc. I'm not saying they should have signed all of those guys, I'm not even saying they would have landed any of them, but a team like the Dodgers should be in on the top free agents, and when they aren't, it's a problem.

Off-season: Juan Uribe is super-versatile, and the power he brings at second base fits in nicely with a team that doesn't get enough power from first base or right field. I like Tony Gwynn Jr. as a fourth outfielder and a pinch-hitter/pinch-runner. On the other hand, $12 million for 36 year old Hideki Kuroda seems a bit steep when you consider Kuroda went 11-13 last year. More importantly, Manny Ramirez is gone and they didn't bother replacing him, or more accurately, replacing what he was supposed to be, which was one of their big bats. Sure, he didn't actually do that last year, but they didn't go anywhere last year either. If this team wants to make the play-offs, they need somebody to be what they wanted Manny to be.

Questions: What is Matt Kemp and can he carry this team? Who winds up playing left field?

Answers: Matt Kemp is the next Carlos Beltran, which means no, he cannot carry a team all by himself. My money for left field would be on Marcus Thames, who hits whenever teams let him play, and even though he is an awful defensive outfielder, I think the Dodgers will need his power.

My Favorite Thing: Ummm...Dodger dogs? There's nothing that really jumps out at me about the Dodgers. I don't hate the whole team, but there's nothing I really love either. Kershaw and Billingsley are a nice top of the rotation, but I wouldn't say they stand out.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: I'd have to say the back and of the rotation. I've never been a huge fan of Ted Lilly, and Jon Garland is one of those "innings-eaters", which is basically a nice way of saying he doesn't win much but he doesn't mind staying out there and getting pounded so you don't have to use your bullpen.

Closing Thought: I'm interested to see if Don Mattingly inherits Joe Torre's penchant for destroying relief pitchers. I'm sure Jonathan Broxton is interested too.

Prediction: Third place. This team should actually have some upside, but after a few pretty disappointing years, I need to see it before I'll believe it.

San Diego Padres
Opening Thought: "discovered by the Germans in 1904, they named it San Diego which, of course, in German means a whale's vagina."

I believe my take on the Padres at the beginning of last season was "Boooooooooo!". That was immediately followed by San Diego spending basically the whole season in first place. I wouldn't say I was wrong about the Padres as much as I would say I underestimated how bad the rest of the National League was.

Off-season: Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson and Aaron Harang aren't exactly the west coast version of the big three, ya know? Jason Bartlett looks like a nice addition, but he's 31 now and 2009 was really his only good year. I'm concerned Jorge Cantu may be finished, and the spacious Petco Park won't help him prove me wrong.

I've send this before, but I'll say it again now. When the highlight of your off-season is trading away your best player, that's not great. It's even more not great when none of the guys you got back seem ready to be huge factors this season. I'm not saying I hate the package they got from Boston, but I'm not saying I love it either (take a look at Casey Kelly's stats at double-A Portland last year, ouch!)

Questions: Can the Padres get close to 90 wins again? How will they replace Adrian Gonzalez and his production? Can Mat Latos start 150 games?

Answers: I don't see how, they won't and probably not but it may be worth a try. The toughest part about pitching to the Padres this year will be figuring out who to walk now that Gonzalez is gone. Maybe Ryan Ludwick.

My Favorite Thing: Has to be youth. Youth is only good if it develops into actual major league talent at some point (for example, Wil Venable is 28 now, it's possible he's just not going to happen), but it's still fun to watch and talk about what the team could be in a few years. Cameron Maybin is still only 23, and we ought to start seeing something from him this year. Guys like that will make this team watchable.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pretty much everyone who isn't Mat Latos or Cameron Maybin. Personally, I don't see a ton of promise in San Diego's young guys other than Latos and Maybin, and it's not like they have a long history of developing their young talent into great players. Bullpen strength really carried this team last year, and relief pitching is a real variable from year to year.

Closing Thought: "...and I'm Ron Burgundy, go f*ck yourself, San Diego."

Prediction: Fourth place. I could very well be wrong about this team again, you can see my opinion of this division isn't exactly through the roof, but I have a hard time seeing the same team massively overachieving for a second straight year after trading their best player.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Opening Thought: "No milk will ever be our milk."

I'm done with Arizona. DONE! Every year I pick them to win, or at least be good, every year they suck. They're like a baseball version of every M. Night Shyamalan movie since sixth sense. Well I won't get twisted again!

Off-season: I've always liked Xavier Nady, but I always liked Claudell Washington for some reason too, that didn't make him good. I have to admit to not being sold on a 33 year old J.J. Putz as the new closer, but last year's numbers say maybe I should be (65 K's in 54 IP). Of course, if you're not winning, picking up a potentially strong closer isn't all that helpful. Juan Miranda seems to be the new first baseman after a trade with the Yankees, I hope D'Backs' fans enjoy strike-outs.

Questions: Can getting out of Pittsburgh breathe some life into Zach Duke? Will last year's almost perfect game be the highlight of Armando Galarraga's career? Did you know Melvin Mora was still alive?

Answers: Probably not if he's just going to another crappy team, almost definitely and yes, I did know that. Truthfully, I do wonder if a change of scenery will do anything for the 27 year old Duke, who's never pitched a full season to an ERA below 4. I'm starting to think he was just never all that good.

My Favorite Thing: Juston Upton. Upton is still only 23 and if he can manage to actually play a healthy season, he should be a top 10 player. I can't wait for him to be a Yankee, Brian Cashman should starting putting together the sampler platter of crappy prospects now, just so it's ready whenever Arizona comes calling.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Lots to choose from, but I'll have to go with starting pitching. ESPN has Ian Kennedy as this team's number 1 starter. Just last year this team was looking at Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson and a possibly returning Brandon Webb. Now? Ian Kennedy, the guy some people in New York were calling the next Mike Mussina, right up until they saw him pitch against big league hitters.

Closing Thought: You can't spell Diamondbacks without "I am bad". Seriously, you can't, all those letters are right in there.

Prediction: Last place. I don't see a lot of hope for this team unless the pitching turns out to be way better than it looks. They might score some runs on days when Chris Young isn't striking out four times, but they don't have one starting pitcher I'd want on my team. That's bad times.

New Toys

The trade deadline is one of the best parts of the baseball season, so much better than the deadlines in the other sports. The combination of the deep minor league systems and the clear distinction between contenders and non-contenders creates plenty of movement and the chance for us to see good teams get some new toys to play with.

In contrast, nothing ever happens at the football deadline. The basketball deadline is OK, but nothing special (plus, the basketball deadline, for the last few years, has been less about teams getting better and more about the endless quest for cap space). And hockey, well, as I've mentioned before, hockey doesn't really appear on my TV anymore.

As a fan, it's always fun to speculate on where different guys might end up, so let's do that.

The Yankees are the best team in baseball, and some people would say that means they don't need anything. Not me. I think the Yanks need a pitcher. I feel like Dan Haren might wind up in New York, but I really don't think he's a good fit. He's a terrible second half pitcher and he'll give up a ton of homers at the stadium. I'd look for the Yankees to go outside the box a little bit. Watch for them to make a run at the Royals, for Joakim Soria or Zack Greinke, or both.

The Mets are a catastrophe. I've watched the Mets quite a bit since the all-star break, they are awful. Unfortunately, the Mets don't really have any prospects that anyone else wants, and they don't really have anywhere to put a new bat. Maybe Brett Myers goes to the Mets, he can start or pitch the 8th inning. That's probably the best they can do. I also hear the Mets have been shopping Jeff Francoeur around. Good luck with that. A power hitter who doesn't get on base and really doesn't hit home runs anymore, where do I sign up?

Sidenote: The Mets really need a new manager. Jerry Manuel is awful, AWFUL! How awful? I saw him bring Oliver Perez into a game yesterday. I rest my case. Hey, they should get Willie Randolph! Oh wait, they already fired him for no good reason. Oh well.

The Red Sox don't really have anywhere to put a new bat or a new pitcher. I'd watch for them to add to their bullpen, if they do anything. What they really need is a doctor, Boston's season has been murdered by injuries. They should trade for House, the entire cast of Scrubs or Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman.

Tampa needs a right fielder. I've heard reports about them sniffing around Philly's Jayson Werth, but I'm not buying it. I don't see the Phillies quitting on this season, so they'd need something back that can help them right now. From Tampa, that's probably James Shields or Matt Garza, and I don't see Tampa doing that. I'd probably bet on Tampa doing nothing. Too bad they can't trade for a new stadium, the Pirates have one they're barely using.

Speaking of the Phillies, I don't know what's going on there. They seem to need a bat too, but they're another team that doesn't really have anywhere to put one of those, which adds them to the list of teams looking to add a pitcher. I'm guessing Ted Lilly winds up in Philadelphia, they don't need an ace and they can get Lilly pretty cheap. Also, Lilly rhymes with Philly, so there's that.

I'm not sure the Braves need anything, they look really good, and they recently got Jason Heyward back healthy. They're pretty old at the corner infield spots, so maybe they add some insurance there. If Atlanta's really feeling froggy, watch for them to get in on Dan Haren. I wouldn't be shocked if Haren ends up in Atlanta.

The Cardinals got really jumpy around the deadline last year, hell of a lot of good it did them. This year, word is they'll have to trade top pitching prospect Shelby Miller to get anything interesting, and I'm not sure they're willing to do that. When I look at the St. Louis roster, I think they ought to be able to get it done with the guys they already have, and I think they'll come to the same conclusion.

Part of the reason I don't expect anything from St. Louis is I don't expect the Reds to do anything either. However, if the Reds make a big move, I'd expect to see St. Louis get serious again in the Oswalt/Haren discussion. If Oswalt goes anywhere, I'm betting it's St. Louis, but only after a Reds move. Actually, if I had to put money on it, I'd probably bet on Oswalt staying put. He's got a no-trade he needs to waive and a 2012 option he wants picked up, lots of moving parts there, those deals often get left on the table at the deadline.

The White Sox are my guess for the annual terrible deadline deal, overpaying for Livan Hernandez or Zach Duke seems right up Chicago's alley. Meanwhile, I don't see the Twins doing much because, well, they're the Twins. I would have said the same thing about the Tigers, but now Magglio Ordonez is hurt and I expect them to be looking for an outfield bat, maybe Jose Guillen.

I really like the Giants. Buster Posey is better than any hitter they could have traded for. If Pablo Sandoval has a good second half (I think he will) they can probably win the division. I still expect them to pick up an outfield bat. I wonder if they could get Cleveland to trade Shin-soo Choo (or as I call him, the choo choo train, all aboard!).

Don't ask me about the Padres, I still wouldn't be surprised if they finish under .500. Between them and the Mariners, I don't think I should try making picks for either western division next year. I stand by my pre-season assessment of Seattle's roster. What can I say? Baseball's crazy sometimes, and Milton Bradley's crazy all the time.

If I'm the Dodgers, I get some extra bullpen help. George Sherrill has been terrible. Also, Joe Torre has destroyed so many relief pitchers that he should have an arm surgery named after him, so they'll need someone for whenever Jonathan Broxton's shoulder explodes. Either way, unless they get Manny back healthy for the last two months, the Dodgers are heading for third place.

I don't like Colorado's chances. Ubaldo Jimenez doesn't look right anymore, and they can't win without him. They might add an outfield bat, but I bet they stay put.

Texas may be the only AL west team worth talking about, and they already made their move. I may be the last baseball fan in the world to be totally sold on Cliff Lee, but I'm sold now, Cliff Lee is the man. I don't see how the Angels catch Texas. The Angels are interesting because I could see them getting in on Oswalt or Haren, but I could also see them being sellers. Bobby Abreu would make an interesting addition to a lot of teams looking for an outfield bat.

So, to wrap up:
Oswalt - staying in Houston, or maybe going to St. Louis
Haren - Atlanta, or maybe the Yankees
Ted Lilly - Philadelphia
Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman - Boston
Jeff Francoeur - San Diego, serving drinks at a Chili's near the ballpark
Mets - Brett Myers and 81 wins.
Yankees - Zack Greinke and/or Joakim Soria
Padres - made a secret deal with the devil
Dodgers/Rockies/Angels/Brewers/Marlins/Mets/Blue Jays/Cubs - thanks for playing, see you next year.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL West

Two very quick comments before we get to the baseball. First, obviously, I couldn't be happier about Tiger Woods returning at the Masters. I hope he wins by 200 strokes. I hope he wins by so much that other golfers are forced to consider adultery as a strategy for improving their games.

Second, I didn't do picks for the NCAA tournament, but if you're looking for a surprise team to go to the sweet 16, maybe even the elite 8, look at Murray State. They came in with 30 wins, they beat Vanderbilt yesterday (not a fluke, they're a better team), almost beat California on the road in November and they pounded 15 seed Morgan State in ESPN's bracket busters last month. Of course, my bracket is already in shambles by now (thanks Georgetown), so you probably shouldn't listen to me. Anyway...

Arizona Diamondbacks
I own an Arizona Diamondbacks jersey. I'm not sure I could tell you why, especially since the Diamondbacks are responsible for one of the most crushing Yankees loses in my lifetime. I think I just liked the black and red color scheme. I wore it out once, it happened to be a day the Mets were playing the D'Backs, that was a mistake. It has since been retired to the far reaches of my closet.

Off-season: This was a tough division to pick, I'm not wild about any of these teams. I bring that up now because the Arizona off-season is what put them on top for me. I really like Edwin Jackson for them. Last year wasn't a fluke, he was a name brand prospect for a while and it seems like he's finally figured it out. I expect another good season from Edwin, better even because I think we won't get the late season slide again this year. They added Adam LaRoche (20+ HR, 80+ RBI, .270+ AVG every year since 2006) and Kelly Johnson. Heilman's a solid bullpen addition too. Also, don't forget they get Conor Jackson and Brandon Webb back this year after basically getting nothing from them last year (that's not entirely true, what they got from Jackson last year was actually worse than nothing).

Line-Up: There's a lot to like here. Justin Upton is a legit star. Steven Drew, Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds are all solid, and Drew may still have a little more room for improvement. You have to expect Chris Young to bounce back, at least a little, from last year's disaster (he hit .212, and unlike Conor Jackson, he doesn't have a rare illness to blame it on). If Upton doesn't have his first of what should be many huge years, they may be a bat short, but I think Upton's ready to carry this offense to big things.

Pitching: We already talked about Edwin Jackson. He and Danny Haren already make a pretty good one-two punch. If Brandon Webb is healthy by May and has the kind of year he's capable of having (Webb won 56 games in the three seasons before last year, think Chris Carpenter from last year), this rotation will get scary. I don't love Chad Qualls (3.63 ERA last year, bleh), but I do like the additions of Bobby Howry and Heilman, so I think this bullpen can figure out how to get it done.

Final Thought: To be fair, I should mention that this is probably the third year in a row I've really liked Arizona before the season started, it hasn't always worked out well. In some ways, this goes back to what I said about the Pirates, you never know exactly what you'll get from a bunch of young guys, even if they are talented. But this team isn't so young anymore, and I love their pitching, so I'm sold.

Prediction: First place, but probably a first round playoff loss. As much as I like their pitching, Haren always struggles in the second half, you don't know how Webb will hold up and while I'm predicting a stronger second half from Jackson, I'm not really basing that on anything. They'll have to play St. Louis or Philly in the first round, and I don't see that turning out well.

Colorado Rockies
Wait, I thought the Rockies moved to New Jersey in 1982 and ruined hockey with their neutral zone trap. Ohhhh, right, this is about the baseball team. Interesting fact #1, Dave Nied was the Rockies' first pick in the 1992 expansion draft. Interesting fact #2, Dave Nied won a total of 14 games for the Rockies in his career. Interesting fact #3, it took the Rockies' pitching roughly 15 years to recover.

Off-season: Not much to talk about here. Garrett Atkins is gone. Now who's gonna hit .226 with 9 home runs? Oh right, Ian Stewart (.228 last year, more home runs though). They picked up Melvin Mora and brought back Jason Giambi, so that's good. Unless this is 2010. Is this 2010? Oh, well then that probably won't help much.

Line-up: I'm not wild about this line-up, but I'll tell you what I like. Everyone on this team can hit. I don't know who can be the really big bats for this team, the 3 and 4 hitters, but they've got plenty of guys who can have solid seasons. I'm not sure how much Todd Helton has left, but he hit .325 last year, so maybe one more good year? Still, even without a good year from Helton, they should have enough.

Pitching: I'm a big fan of this team's pitching, maybe even a little more than the D'Backs. Ubaldo Jimenez is a legit ace and Cook and De La Rosa are solid. If Jeff Francis comes back strong, this team can win a lot of games with pitching. I like the bullpen too, I'm not super high on Huston Street, but he's good enough and he's got a lot of help. Expect this team to win a lot of 3-2 games.

Final Thought: For an expansion team, I actually like Denver quite a bit as a baseball town. How is it that the Marlins have 2 titles to the Rockies' 0 since they came in together and yet no one wants to go to Marlins' games but the Rockies are still doing pretty well with attendance? Good baseball town, that's how.

Prediction: Second place, and my pick for the NL wild card. Congrats Rockies, you get the honor of being pummeled by the Phillies in October!

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are exhibit A for why I don't believe in sports curses. If teams could actually be cursed, there's no way the Dodgers would have any championships since ditching Brooklyn for Los Angeles. The curse of the Bamino, the Chicago goat thing, all nonsense. Of course, maybe I'm wrong, maybe the baseball gods think having to play in front of fans who leave early because of traffic is already enough of a curse.

Off-season: Something about a divorce and the Dodgers not having money to spend kept them from doing anything notable this winter. John Lackey would have been an excellent fit here. It's fun seeing what happens when Joe Torre has to do more than just sit back and point his great team toward the field.

Line-up: I've always been a big Manny fan. I think he has a strong year and I like this line-up. Even if Torre has murdered Russell Martin's career, they still have Manny, Kemp, Either and Loney (look at Loney's stats for the last two years, they're damn near identical, he's like a machine, and a relatively productive machine too). The true effectiveness of this line-up will really depend on the size of Manny's year, but this team can hit.

Pitching: I really like the Dodgers' bullpen. Sure, Joe Torre is already well on his way to destroying Jonathan Broxton's shoulder, but until we finish that journey, this may be the best bullpen in baseball. Unfortunately, the Dodgers' starting pitching is a mess. I like Kershaw and Billingsley, but then what? This team would need an awful lot of wins from Hideki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla to win this division. How likely does that sound to you?

Final Thought: The Dodgers are sort of a wild card because they're a big money team acting like a small money team because of an ownership situation. If they start acting like a big money team again around the deadline, they can pick up some pitching and make things interesting.

Prediction: Third place. Could get better with added pitching, but they could also get a lot worse if they get injured (or if Manny stops caring for whatever reason). I imagine a lot of people picking this team to win the division, but something here just doesn't feel right.

San Francisco Giants
MLB.com has Barry Zito listed as the Giants' number two starter. Before Jonathan Sanchez and before Matt Cain. Are they just taunting Giants fans? I can't remember a situation like this in baseball, or any other sport. Everyone knew Barry Zito was done, other teams, fans, Oakland, everyone. Everyone except the Giants, who gave him a huge, ridiculous contract and have 31 wins over three completely healthy seasons to show for it. The Giants should be suspended from signing free agents for a year as punishment.

Off-season: I don't mind the DeRosa signing, somebody had to. But Aubrey Huff? Huff saw a little bit of a resurgence in Baltimore, until last year when he hit .241. Now he's moving to a pitcher's ballpark in a league with better pitching to begin with. Call me skeptical, but I don't see this ending well.

Line-up: Pablo Sandoval can hit. I mean he can rake. If I were a baseball, I would run in the other direction when I saw him coming. Unfortunately, I hate the rest of this line-up. Last year's big signing, Edgar Renteria, hit .250 last year, and I don't expect him to get any better. Remember when I said the Rockies would win a lot of 3-2 games? Well, I expect the Giants to be on the losing end of about 7 of those.

Pitching: I do like the pitching for the Giants. Aside from Zito (who actually wasn't awful last year, 11 wins, 4.03 ERA. Could have been a lot worse, like the two previous years when he posted ERAs over 5), this rotation is excellent. Lincecum and Cain are studs, and I like Jonathan Sanchez too. I'm on the Madison Bumgarner band wagon. That's four good starters, so while I don't like this team's offense at all, they certainly have the pitching to keep games close and compete.

Final Thought: I definitely want to get to a game at AT&T Park, or whatever they're calling it this week. It looks really nice and I bet it would be cool to spend a game in McCovey Cove. Plus I hear they have awesome garlic fries. You probably can't get the fries in the cove though, I'd have to choose (spoiler alert: I choose the fries).

Prediction: Fourth place, but they could do better. In a division with good pitching, every team has a shot. If the Giants get monster years from one or two guys, they could contend.

San Diego Padres
Remember when I said I could talk you into winning seasons for Pittsburgh and Washington? Yeah, well, not this time. I've looked at the San Diego roster from every angle, looking for signs of hope. All I found was Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of guys I've never heard of.

Off-season: They signed Jerry Hairston Jr. and Jon Garland. I didn't hate Garland as an idea for good teams, but I don't see how he helps the Padres. Probably the best part of the off-season for San Diego fans was not trading Adrian Gonzalez. Beware, trades can still happen in the spring and they can definitely happen in the summer.

Line-up: Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks can hit home runs. More importantly, look at the picture of Kyle Blanks on ESPN.com or MLB.com. It looks like they used a time machine to import him from the 70's. I think the Padres could really make this season fun by requiring every player to adopt a different 70's hair style.

Pitching: I've heard good things about Mat Latos, so that should be something interesting to watch. The rest of this staff is an abomination, especially compared to all the good pitching in this division. Even if Heath Bell has another solid year, which I wouldn't bet on (he's 32 this year), he'll be setting up for Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon by August 1st. Chris Young had an ERA of 5.21 in 76 innings last year. The thing about very tall pitchers is, if they lose their mechanics, it's really hard to get them back, too many moving parts. Young could bounce back this year, but he could also be done.

Final Thought: Boooooooo! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Prediction: Last place, I'd put good money on it. Every other team in this division is demonstrably better than San Diego. I see no logical way this team can win more than 65 games or get anywhere near the playoffs. Luckily, Padres fans live in San Diego, so life's still pretty good.