Boston Convert

As I'm writing this I'm getting ready for game 2 of the Rangers/Bruins series.  First of all, if you aren't watching the hockey playoffs, honestly, what's wrong with you?  Whatever you're doing instead just isn't nearly as important.

Anyway, as I've tried to figure out who I'm rooting for in this series, I've come to a shocking revelation about myself.  I think I'm becoming a Boston sports fan.  True story.  It seems ridiculous to just switch all rooting interests to a whole new town, but let's go through it one by one.

The Celtics are the easiest one.  I've always been a Celtics fan, except for that brief period in the 90's when there were only two basketball fan identities (Bulls fan or Bulls hater) and I was a Bulls fan.  My parents were never that into sports (except for my mom and the Rangers, and we'll get to them in a minute), so I inherited a lot of my rooting interests from my grandmother.  Because the Celtics are implicitly Irish, we rooted for Boston.

Sidenote: In hindsight, there also might be something to the fact that, in the 80's, the Celtics pretty much cornered the market on white basketball players.  Really...Bird, McHale, Ainge, Walton.  It's like a who's who of useful or better NBA white guys.  I don't know, I didn't really give that a lot of thought when I was 7.

In terms of hockey, I grew up an Islanders fan.  My grandparents live like 10 minutes from the Nassau Coliseum, and back when I was like 0-3 years old, the Isles were winning four straight Stanley Cups.  So that's a pretty formative experience.  A few years ago I disowned the Islanders because of their many many uniform transgressions.  Since then, I assume in response to my outrage, they went back to the classic uniform scheme and I've been back on board.  But, they're moving to Brooklyn soon.

I'm sorry, I'm not rooting for a hockey team from Brooklyn.  Especially after they change their name to the Hipsters or the Skinny Jeans or whatever and incorporate irony into their new uniforms.  No thank you.  Plus, I'm from Queens, I don't want to root for Brooklyn anyway.

And the Rangers and Devils?  Come on.  Listen, the Rangers suck.  And the Devils, they're even worse.  I had a girlfriend in college who loved the Devils, and even when someone I loved loved the Devils, I still fucking hated them.  They are perpetually unwatchable.  The uniforms are awful, and even though they don't play like they did in the 90's anymore, I can't watch them without seeing that awful neutral zone trap.  Boooooo!!!!!!!!!

Meanwhile, the Bruins have great uniforms, aren't from Brooklyn and aren't planning to randomly move to some other part of Boston just for fun.  I like the Bruins and I'm not having a hard time seeing myself getting on board with being a fan.  I mean, just look at Zdeno Chara.  He's like an angry giant on skates. Who doesn't want to root for an angry giant?  Also, they have a goalie named Tuukka.  Tuukka!  Come on, he has an extra K.  Everyone knows K is the best letter.  At least it is in Finland, or Sweden, or Denmark or wherever the fuck Tuukka is from.

Football is pretty easy too.  I've always kind of hated the New York football teams, and I haven't really kept that a secret.  In my football watching life I've bounced around from the Houston Oilers (until they moved) to the Tampa Bay Bucs (until they got new uniforms) to just being a fan of the NFL Redzone network (because it's seriously fucking awesome).  I can settle in with the Patriots.  I already have a Patriots jersey (although it hasn't been worn since September, and even then not by me, and the story of how I became the owner of a Patriots jersey is interesting, somewhat embarrassing, has very little to do with being a Patriots fan, and I'm not quite ready to tell it yet).

Oh, and did I mention the New York football teams are actually from New Jersey?  Yeah, that's a real thing.

Honestly, I'm not even sure why people have favorite football teams anymore.  It's like having a favorite character on a sit-com.  It's just a TV show.  When I watch How I Met Your Mother, I don't root for Marshall, I just enjoy the show.  I feel like having a strong rooting interest might ruin football for me, but I've never had one before, so I'm open to trying it.

But then there's the Yankees.  I grew up a Yankee fan.  I've always been a Yankee fan.  The '96 World Series was awesome.  And so were the other three they won when I was in college.  But the last one, honestly, the thrill just wasn't there anymore.  I've said this before.  Being a Yankee fan is exhausting.  Yankee fans only have two emotions, terrible disappointment when the Yankees don't win the World Series, and what could best be described as relief when they do.  To be honest, I can't remember the last time I enjoyed a Yankee game.  In some ways, my Yankee fandom has become like a bad relationship that I'm just too much of a wimp to get out of.

Speaking of bad relationships, I can't really imagine what it's like to be a Red Sox fan.  I'm not 100% sure it would really be more fun, but I'm 100% sure it wouldn't be less fun.  Typical relationship dilemma.  Stay with something familiar, or go try something new that isn't necessarily any better and just leaves you feeling like an idiot.  As you can probably tell from the fact that I'm going to die alone, I'm not very good at this.

Some other valid reasons to switch to Boston fandom:

- I live in Massachusetts now, so there are always Boston teams on my TV.  I mean, I could just watch and root against them.  That's essentially what I did with the Red Sox my first year here, but, to be honest, that wasn't a lot of fun.

- Boston girls are almost exclusively awesome.  New York girls are, frankly, kind of a mixed bag.  Don't make that face at me!  You know I'm right.  You've seen Sex and the City.  So if you're in a bar with half Boston girls and half New York girls, which side of the bar would you rather have a common rooting interest with?  Yeah, me too.  I've also found that Boston girls are significantly more likely to be into sports, so there's a better chance of them being in the bar to begin with.

- Aerosmith is from Boston.  And so are the Mighty Mighty Bosstones.  Who's from New York?  LL Cool J and The Ramones?  Similar question.  If you got invited to watch a game and hang out with famous music people, who would you pick?  Dicky Barrett and Steven Tyler or LL Cool J and whichever Ramone is still alive?  Again, yeah, me too.

Look, to be honest, I'm not sure if I can go through with the full conversion.  I'm still stuck on the Red Sox thing.  That's not an easy switch.  But I've already decided that I'm not buying the MLB extra innings package this season, the Yankees just aren't worth $40 a month to me anymore.  So I suppose I'll watch a summer of Sox baseball and see how I feel in September.  I'll keep you posted.

MLB First Impressions - American League

I've decided to take the baseball previews in a new direction this year.  More brevity, less rambling.  I'm just going to take a look at each team's depth chart on MLB.com and ESPN.com and jot down some first impressions.  Yankees fans, I hope you enjoy this, because we won't be enjoying anything else for the next six months.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa finally did what they should have done three years ago and turned a couple of their pitchers into an impact bat.  Wil Myers is a hitting savant, Rays fans (all 22 of them) will love his work.  I do think Tampa will miss B.J. Upton.  I know he's awful most of the time, but he also has those two week runs where he can just carry a team.  They'll miss that.  But the Rays still have excellent pitching and perfectly adequate offense.  Tampa is still the best team in this division as far as I'm concerned.

Boston Red Sox
This Boston team has "wait, how are they good?" written all over them.  You know who the best manager in the world is?  Anyone who isn't Bobby Valentine.  If Ellsbury and Lester and Buchholz can all stay healthy and be productive, I like Boston for a wild card.  On the other hand, this is my last year of patience with Jon Lester.  If he can't get it together this year, then next year's baseball preview starts with "what the hell happened to Jon Lester?"

Baltimore Orioles
I read an article on ESPN.com that told me Baltimore could field two starting rotations with all the pitching they have.  That may be true, but I'm not convinced either one of those rotations would be any good.  Plus, this is supposed to be the year that Buck Showalter leaves and then some fraud comes in and takes all the credit for what he set up (cough, cough...Joe Torre...cough, cough).  With Buck staying, I have no idea what's supposed to happen now, but I'm not convinced Baltimore can make the playoffs two years in a row. 

New York Yankees
This is all so depressing, but honestly, it isn't all the injuries to the offense that have me down.  I think this team can still hit.  It's the pitching.  You can say the bullpen looks good with Rivera back, but how good are they going to look when the starters are giving them 2 innings every night.  I couldn't possibly hate this rotation more.  Why is Andy Pettitte still here?  Go away Andy Pettitte!  Please!  Ugh.  I may skip the extra innings package this season just so I don't have to watch this.

Toronto Blue Jays
What am I missing here?  Toronto won 73 games last year.  In the off-season they added a guy coming off a steroid suspension (which means he'll either go back to sucking like he used to or he'll get suspended again and they'll lose him for 100 games), a 72 year old knuckleballer and the core of a 69 win Marlins team.  I'm having trouble understanding why people think this all adds up to awesome.  I still don't trust Toronto's pitching, and I'll never trust Jose Bautista. 

Detroit Tigers
Remember the first year after Lebron went to Miami?  The Heat spent the season trying to figure out how to play together, then they went to the finals and lost to a pretty mediocre Dallas team.  The second season for Miami was championship or bust.  Same in Detroit this year.  I've stopped waiting for Justin Verlander's shoulder to explode, I guess he's just a freak.  Detroit still has some bullpen issues, but they should be good to go for a division title.

Kansas City Royals
Wild card for the Royals!  You heard me.  The Royals finally have a rotation, with fastballs and breaking pitches and everything.  Just like a real team!  Solid bullpen, and this team can hit son.  I'm telling you, if they weren't the Royals, I wouldn't be the only one putting them in the playoffs.  Then again, they are the Royals, so I guess we'll see.

Cleveland Indians
I had the Indians in the wild card spot until I looked at their depth chart and saw Scott Kazmir in their rotation.  You can't go to the playoffs with Scott Kazmir.  You just can't.  Having said that, this team can also hit.  If Ubaldo Jimenez can get himself together, Cleveland could be really good.  That's a big if though.  In a related story, Indians fans turned out to be the losers of the Who Gets to Watch 600 Nick Swisher At-bats This Season sweepstakes.  Get ready to hate life.

Chicago White Sox
Every year one team just screams 81-81 at me.  It's usually the Braves, but this year it's the White Sox.  Paul Konerko can't keep this up forever.  And how bad does Gordon Beckham have to be before we all give up on him?  He's a .245 career hitter, and last year he hit .234 (that's called trending in the wrong direction buddy).  I like Jake Peavy and Addison Reed, and I hate pretty much everything else.

Minnesota Twins
I can't even talk about the Twins.  Two different websites have Vance Worley as their number 1 starter.  I really can't talk about them.  So I'm going to take this space to bash the Mets a little.  What happened to Mike Pelfrey?  How did they screw that up?  Everything about young Mike Pelfrey said "this guy's gonna be an ace".  Everything about current Mike Pelfrey says "I wish I had played for anyone other than the Mets". 

Los Angeles Angels
I'm a little worried about Albert Pujols, he's 33 and clearly starting to regress.  And I'm a little worried about Josh Hamilton in Los Angeles.  I heard they have cocaine there.  Having said that, I love Tommy Hanson for this team, and Mike Trout is Mike Trout, so I think they win the division. 

Texas Rangers
It was pretty hard for me to find a second place team in this division.  Texas was my natural inclination, then I looked at their rotation.  Then I looked at Oakland's roster.  Then back to Texas.  I'm going with the Rangers because I think they can still hit and Joe Nathan looks all the way back, but I don't see a wild card coming out of this division (which is sad, because they all get to play Houston a bunch of times).

Oakland A's
Oakland's done it with young pitching and a bunch of nobodys before, but that doesn't mean it works every time.  And this time they have to do it without Brad Pitt.  Also, the one thing people always forget to mention about Moneyball is that Oakland never actually won a championship, or even the American League.  I'm not saying Oakland can't be good, but there's a ceiling.

Seattle Mariners
To believe Seattle can contend, you have to believe King Felix can carry them, because the rest of that rotation is a mess.  And I'm not so sure I believe anymore.  Five straight seasons over 200 innings, and ERAs above 3 the last two seasons.  I'm not saying he'll be bad, but 2009/2010 Felix is gone, and I don't think he's coming back.

Houston Astros
Love the uniform upgrade, hate everything else.

AL MVP: Robinson Cano.  I know I said the Yankees will be terrible, and they will, but I think this is one of those years when nobody from a contender really stands out and someone from a losing team puts up huge numbers and gets the MVP.

AL Cy Young: David Price.  I can't just pick Justin Verlander, and I refuse to pick a Weaver.  Plus, if Tampa is actually going to win the AL East, they'll probably need Price to put up Cy Young numbers.

AL Champs:  I like Tampa, I really do.  I know Detroit is probably a safer pick, but I like Tampa.

It's Baseball Time Again! - AL East

Welcome to the best division in baseball.  What makes this division better than the NL East?  In a (made up) word, the AL East has the important quality of Metlessness.  Why am I so down on the Mets?  When the Mets had Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and K-Rod, they were barely a contender.  Now they have exactly one and a half of those things. 

Anyway, where was I?  Oh right, the AL East.

New York Yankees

Good News: We all know the Yankees can hit, but something about the pitching staff this season actually makes sense to me.  It's not perfect, but I really like Michael Pineda (the Yankees made a good trade, for young talent, I'm still stunned) and I'm willing to classify the bullpen in front of Rivera as "not terrible". 

Bad News: Everything about Hiroki Kuroda tells me he's a guy who will be crushed in the American League, I have no faith in him.  Also, Mariano Rivera is 42 years old.  42!  I can't find anything in his 2011 statistics to suggest a decline (K rate actually went back up, innings held steady with 2010 numbers), but seriously, he's 42.  This can't go on forever.

Anything else we need to know?: What do I have to do to convince my fellow Yankee fans that Andy Pettitte was never that great to begin with.  It seems like most fans' reaction to the news of Andy's comeback was "yeah!".  My reaction was "Why?".  And speaking of Yankees I'm not a huge fan of, Nick Swisher.  I know he puts up good numbers and always stays healthy (at least 150 games played in six straight seasons), but his at-bats are torture.

Prediction: This makes me nervous, but I think the Yankees can win the division, and the World Series.  I know, I'm a homer.  Seriously though, I think this can happen.

Boston Red Sox

Good News: Andrew Bailey is every bit as good as Jonathan Papelbon, and 100% less crazy (I think, maybe playing in Boston was what made Papelbon crazy in the first place, I guess we'll see).  Cody Ross isn't any worse than JD Drew, and comes with the added benefit of not being JD Drew.  More importantly, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis have to be better than they were last year, Youk should be an MVP candidate (although I like Robinson Cano for AL MVP this year).  Plus they get Clay Buchholz back.  Lots of good news for the Sox (and they needed some).

Bad News: The bottom of Boston's rotation is kind of a mess (I love Daniel Bard as a closer and I love Alfredo Aceves as a middle/long reliever, I'm not sold on either of them as starters) .  Also, Bobby Valentine is super-overrated.  I know he once got an absolutely mediocre Mets team to a world series, but they got trounced in that series, and it was like 13 years ago. 

Anything else we need to know?: I live in Red Sox country now, which means that when the Yankees play the Sox, I only get to watch the Sox broadcast.  Booooooooo!!!!!!!!!

Prediction: Second place, wild card, not much else. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Good News: Tampa's starting rotation is going to pitch the shit out of the ball.  David Price had more strike-outs and less walks last year than he did in 2010, when he got serious Cy Young consideration.  Wade Davis should be better, Matt Moore should be awesome and James Shields seems to have figured something out.  And if any of those guys fail, Jeff Niemann is still around as the 6th starter.

Bad News: Still not a lot of offense in Tampa.  Add that to a bullpen that would be best described as "shaky", and it sounds like a recipe for a lot of late inning losses to Boston and New York.

Anything else we need to know?: Yeah, yeah.  I know Kyle Farnsworth was very good last year, but he's still Kyle Farnsworth.  Until the end of time, I will describe any bullpen which includes Kyle Farnsworth as shaky.

Prediction: Third place, the other wild card and probably a trip to the ALCS.  I think so anyway.  I honestly can't decide between the Rays and the Angels for the second AL wild card.  Tampa's a better team, but they don't get to play Seattle and Oakland as much as the Angels do.  Screw it, I'm going with Tampa.

Baltimore Orioles

Good News: Is it just me, or do the Orioles look like they can hit?  Not a ton, but some.  Right?  It may be time for a break-out year for Matt Wieters too.  Baltimore won't win a lot, but they won't be terrible either.

Bad News: Is it just me, or can the Orioles not pitch at all?  Baltimore's whole staff is a hodge podge of guys who probably aren't ready yet (Arrieta, Britton) and guys who will probably never be ready (Hammel, Chen, Tommy Hunter).  And what's going on with Brian Matusz?  This whole thing is a catastrophe.

Anything else we need to know?: Whenever I think of Baltimore, I immediately think of The Wire.  Wallace was on House this week.  Where's Wallace at?  He was in Dillon, Texas for a while, and then he was on House.  That's where Wallace is at.

Prediction: Fourth place, should be fun to watch (and hit against).

Toronto Blue Jays

Good News: Toronto is a super nice city.  It's like if you put an American city in a dishwasher, and then added the hockey hall of fame, and cool Canadian accents to all the people.   Oh, you wanted good baseball news?  Sorry, I don't have any of that.

Seriously, Any good news?: Well, I don't hate Toronto's bullpen.  I don't love it, but I don't hate it.

Bad News: Adam Lind followed a break-out 2009 by hitting .237 and .251 the next two seasons.  Jose Bautista's steroids suspension has to happen eventually (sorry, I meant to say that I'm sure he's perfectly clean, because it's totally reasonable for a 30-year-old player to suddenly become awesome at hitting, and I know this because I learned nothing from the late 90's).

Anything else we need to know?: I kinda thought Toronto stole Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, but it's starting to seem more like St. Louis knew something that Toronto (and I) didn't know.  That was actually probably more likely all along.

Prediction: Last place.  It's not that Toronto is so awful, but they aren't good and this division is.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preivew - AL East

Very recently, I saw a poll on ESPN.com asking people whether or not Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. At the time I saw it, over half the respondents said no. Barry Bonds was the second greatest player of his generation before the steroids. Either half the people responding to ESPN polls are stupid, or they're confusing Barry Bonds with Barry Zito.

Boston Red Sox
Opening Thought: When I moved to southern Connecticut, I was sort of halfway between Red Sox nation and Yankee country, maybe still a little more than halfway in Yankee country. Now, in western Massachusetts, I'm firmly in Red Sox land. So far, the only thing I know for sure is I'm going to have to get the MLB extra innings package for my television machine, because I need to watch baseball in the summer and I just couldn't bring myself to watch Boston everyday, especially since they'll be pummeling teams most of the time.

Off-season: In each the last four seasons, Adrian Gonzalez has posted at least 30 home runs, 99RBIs and 160 games played, and he's still only 28. I'm not sure you could find a better investment. Unless you invest in Carl Crawford, who's only 29, has 7 seasons of 46 or more stolen bases and five seasons hitting over .300. Crawford's on-base percentage (.337 career) isn't as high as you'd like, and he strikes out too much for a guy who doesn't hit a lot of home runs, but Boston still nailed this off-season by picking up two of the best three players available, and Bobby Jenks.

Questions: Can Boston get anything from Jared Saltalamacchia? What's left of Josh Beckett? What's the over/under on this season's Jed Lowrie injury?

Answers: I put the Lowrie over/under at May 17th. All they need out of Salty is enough to keep Jason Varitek's dead body off the field, which isn't much. As far Beckett, he's like a car you only bought a few years ago, but you drove the crap out of it and now it's way more used up than it should be. Last time Beckett posted an ERA above 5, he followed it up with a 3.27 ERA and 20 wins, but that was four years ago, I'm not sure he can do that again.

My Favorite Thing: This is a tough one, because I like Boston's pitching too, but last year I said Boston was one bat away, and they went out and got two, so I'm going with offense. The Red Sox have speed (Ellsbury and Crawford), power (Gonzalez and Ortiz) and guys who hit for average (Youkilis, Crawford again, Pedroia). They can beat you however they want.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: I guess Papelbon, who put up a 3.90 ERA last year and blew 8 saves. Having said that, Boston won't wait too long to go to Daniel Bard if Papelbon isn't getting the job done, and I really like Bard.

Closing Thought: Every year I think David Ortiz is done, and every year it seems he isn't quite there yet. I give up.

Prediction: First place, and (arrrgggh!) I like Boston an awful lot to win the AL this year.

New York Yankees
Opening Thought: When I was a kid, I played little league baseball. At the pee-wee level, I remember the umpires and coaches doing all the pitching, so nobody had a pitching advantage and winning was all about hitting. I think this year's Yankees need to find a league like that.

Off-season: I shouldn't complain too much. Two years ago the Yankees brought in Sabathia and Teixeira and won a title. Last year they went out and got Granderson. Every off-season can't bring new all-stars. On top of that, while I can't get excited about Russell Martin's bat anymore, I'll take any defense behind the plate over Jorge Posada. Feliciano and Soriano make excellent bullpen additions, the bridge to Mariano is probably the strongest it's been in years.

Questions: Who's the fifth starter?

Answers: Fifth starter? Who's the fourth starter, or even the 3rd starter when Hughes gets hurt (which you know he will)? For that matter, what happens if Burnett can't find it again? So basically, I only really know who the first starter is.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. The whole line-up except Gardner (and now Martin I guess, although I have to think/hope Jesus Montero will be up to taking Martin's job by May or June) put up double digit home runs last year. If Granderson can stay healthy, he and Gardner still bring some speed and I think Jeter has one more .300 season left in him. The Yankees would dominate my pee-wee baseball league, or a slow pitch softball league.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. CC Sabathia and then look out below. I am in no way convinced that AJ Burnett is anything but done, nor am I convinced that Phil Hughes can stay healthy or pitch to a sub-4 ERA. You may be able to convince me that Bartolo Colon is, in fact, still alive, but that's about it.

Closing Thought: Can I be honest? I think my Yankee fandom is probably the only thing that kept New York out of third or even fourth place for me. I hate this team's starting pitching so much, I can't get over it.

Prediction: Second place, I hope.

Baltimore Orioles
Speaking of guys who belong in the hall of fame, let's take a quick look at Vladimir Guerrero. A .320 career average (which includes 13 seasons over .300 , 13!) 2427 hits, 10 seasons of over 100 RBI, 179 career steals, 436 home runs, a fantastic defensive right fielder in his prime. I could go on and on. I'm not breaking any news saying Vlad is going to the Hall, but I was a little surprised to see that he looks like a first ballot no-brainer.

Off-season: What happened here? Seriously. I just looked at the Baltimore depth chart, where did all these guys come from? I knew about Vlad Guerrero, and I think I'd heard about Derrek Lee, but when did Mark Reynolds happen? and Justin Duchscherer? and JJ Hardy? I don't even know where to start, but let's start with Reynolds. Mark Reynolds hit .198 last year playing in a pretty large ballpark and still hit 32 home runs. Now, if he hits .198 again, they'll have to bench him at some point, he's playing in a real division now. But, if he gets even marginally better, he'll hit 40 home runs. Pretty good pick up.

Questions: Can Vladimir Guerrero stay healthy? Can Brian Roberts? Does Derrek Lee have anything left?

Answers: I think so and probably not. Lee hit .306 and had a big year in 2009, so last year could just be one bad year, but he's 35 now. I wouldn't bet on a big bounce back, maybe a little one, something like .270/25/90.

My Favorite Thing: Lots to like about Baltimore's line-up if they stay healthy. I already mentioned all the new guys, and I think being on a decent team for once could breath some life back into Nick Markakis.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching concerns me a little. I think Jake Arrieta should be pretty good one day, but it doesn't look like he's there yet. Kevin Gregg doesn't impress me as a closer. Brian Matusz was pretty ordinary overall last year (4.30 ERA, 10-12), but he was great down the stretch (6-1 in August and September, 2.43 ERA in August, 1.89 in September). Not bad pitching exactly, just unreliable.

Closing Thought: I don't know if Baltimore has a full winning season in them, but I'd be willing to put decent money on the Orioles being in first place on June 1st.

Prediction: Third place, lots of upside.

Tampa Bay Rays
Opening Thought: Nothing in baseball over the last four years or so has been more predictable then the inevitable break-up of the first good Tampa team, but it's still kind of sad to watch. It would be less sad if Carl Crawford was a Yankee right now like he's supposed to be.

Off-season: Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and Carlos Pena are all gone, replaced by the likes of Johnny Damon, Kyle Farnsworth and Dan Johnson. Even though they won the division, Tampa wasn't super impressive last year, and now their roster is noticeably worse. That's not great.

Questions: How much can the Rays get out of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon?

Answers: Probably not a whole lot. I liked both of them as possible DH's for American League teams, but both of them on the same team makes no sense. Neither one of them is up to playing left field this year.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. David Price was probably the rightful AL Cy Young last year (2.72 ERA, 19-6). Some people seem to think he can't do that again, but I don't see why not. I like Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. So, even though James Shields has always been overrated (5.18 ERA last year, yuck), Tampa's rotation, as a whole, should be pretty good to excellent.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: That whole Damon/Ramirez thing could easily fit here, but don't forget about the bullpen. Anytime the words "Kyle Farnsworth" and "counting on" are in the same sentence for your team, bad things are a comin'.

Closing Thought: Tampa isn't a bad team exactly, they're just in a rough division. The Rays could probably win the central.

Prediction: Fourth place, but these are all good teams and pitching wins games. The Rays could easily be better than Baltimore and certainly can out-pitch the Yankees (at least for the first 6 or 7 innings). Some upside here too.

Toronto Blue Jays
Opening Thought: "Attention Canada! I am Barney from America, and I am here to fix your backward-ass country. Number one, get real money. I don't know what board game this came from..."

Off-season: The only addition worth noting was closer Frank Francisco, and it seems he's already hurt. I've always said pitcher injuries before the season even starts never end well. The Jays also added Octavio Dotel and John Rauch. It's a veritable cornucopia of guys who would terrify me if they were in my team's bullpen.

Questions: Can Aaron Hill and Adam Lind come back? Can Jose Bautista hit 50 home runs again? How good is J.P. Arencibia?

Answers: I'm not sure they can, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO and really good I think. Arencibia hit .301 with 30+ homers in triple A last year. Lots of good young catchers around baseball right now, I hope Jesus Montero turns out to be one of them.

My Favorite Thing: Toronto can hit. Even if Hill and Lind only get halfway back, and even if Bautista comes back down to, say, 30 home runs, they're still pretty good. Rajai Davis (50 steals last year) and Juan Rivera (30 home run power if he can ever stay healthy) make nice additions to what should be a pretty solid line-up.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. What's the record for blown leads by a team in one season?

Closing Thought: I didn't mention Toronto's starting pitching. I don't love it, I don't hate it. The AL East isn't really the division you want to be in when you're trying to break-in a bunch of young pitchers. Expect some dominating performances mixed in with a lot of severe beatings.

Prediction: Last place. Toronto isn't really a bad team either, but somebody has to finish last in this division.

World Series Prediction: Philly over Boston in six. The Phillies just have too much pitching and more than enough offense to back it up. Boston should be pretty beat up after a tough year in the AL East, while, in contrast, the Phillies can dominate their division with one ace tied behind their back.

New Toys

The trade deadline is one of the best parts of the baseball season, so much better than the deadlines in the other sports. The combination of the deep minor league systems and the clear distinction between contenders and non-contenders creates plenty of movement and the chance for us to see good teams get some new toys to play with.

In contrast, nothing ever happens at the football deadline. The basketball deadline is OK, but nothing special (plus, the basketball deadline, for the last few years, has been less about teams getting better and more about the endless quest for cap space). And hockey, well, as I've mentioned before, hockey doesn't really appear on my TV anymore.

As a fan, it's always fun to speculate on where different guys might end up, so let's do that.

The Yankees are the best team in baseball, and some people would say that means they don't need anything. Not me. I think the Yanks need a pitcher. I feel like Dan Haren might wind up in New York, but I really don't think he's a good fit. He's a terrible second half pitcher and he'll give up a ton of homers at the stadium. I'd look for the Yankees to go outside the box a little bit. Watch for them to make a run at the Royals, for Joakim Soria or Zack Greinke, or both.

The Mets are a catastrophe. I've watched the Mets quite a bit since the all-star break, they are awful. Unfortunately, the Mets don't really have any prospects that anyone else wants, and they don't really have anywhere to put a new bat. Maybe Brett Myers goes to the Mets, he can start or pitch the 8th inning. That's probably the best they can do. I also hear the Mets have been shopping Jeff Francoeur around. Good luck with that. A power hitter who doesn't get on base and really doesn't hit home runs anymore, where do I sign up?

Sidenote: The Mets really need a new manager. Jerry Manuel is awful, AWFUL! How awful? I saw him bring Oliver Perez into a game yesterday. I rest my case. Hey, they should get Willie Randolph! Oh wait, they already fired him for no good reason. Oh well.

The Red Sox don't really have anywhere to put a new bat or a new pitcher. I'd watch for them to add to their bullpen, if they do anything. What they really need is a doctor, Boston's season has been murdered by injuries. They should trade for House, the entire cast of Scrubs or Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman.

Tampa needs a right fielder. I've heard reports about them sniffing around Philly's Jayson Werth, but I'm not buying it. I don't see the Phillies quitting on this season, so they'd need something back that can help them right now. From Tampa, that's probably James Shields or Matt Garza, and I don't see Tampa doing that. I'd probably bet on Tampa doing nothing. Too bad they can't trade for a new stadium, the Pirates have one they're barely using.

Speaking of the Phillies, I don't know what's going on there. They seem to need a bat too, but they're another team that doesn't really have anywhere to put one of those, which adds them to the list of teams looking to add a pitcher. I'm guessing Ted Lilly winds up in Philadelphia, they don't need an ace and they can get Lilly pretty cheap. Also, Lilly rhymes with Philly, so there's that.

I'm not sure the Braves need anything, they look really good, and they recently got Jason Heyward back healthy. They're pretty old at the corner infield spots, so maybe they add some insurance there. If Atlanta's really feeling froggy, watch for them to get in on Dan Haren. I wouldn't be shocked if Haren ends up in Atlanta.

The Cardinals got really jumpy around the deadline last year, hell of a lot of good it did them. This year, word is they'll have to trade top pitching prospect Shelby Miller to get anything interesting, and I'm not sure they're willing to do that. When I look at the St. Louis roster, I think they ought to be able to get it done with the guys they already have, and I think they'll come to the same conclusion.

Part of the reason I don't expect anything from St. Louis is I don't expect the Reds to do anything either. However, if the Reds make a big move, I'd expect to see St. Louis get serious again in the Oswalt/Haren discussion. If Oswalt goes anywhere, I'm betting it's St. Louis, but only after a Reds move. Actually, if I had to put money on it, I'd probably bet on Oswalt staying put. He's got a no-trade he needs to waive and a 2012 option he wants picked up, lots of moving parts there, those deals often get left on the table at the deadline.

The White Sox are my guess for the annual terrible deadline deal, overpaying for Livan Hernandez or Zach Duke seems right up Chicago's alley. Meanwhile, I don't see the Twins doing much because, well, they're the Twins. I would have said the same thing about the Tigers, but now Magglio Ordonez is hurt and I expect them to be looking for an outfield bat, maybe Jose Guillen.

I really like the Giants. Buster Posey is better than any hitter they could have traded for. If Pablo Sandoval has a good second half (I think he will) they can probably win the division. I still expect them to pick up an outfield bat. I wonder if they could get Cleveland to trade Shin-soo Choo (or as I call him, the choo choo train, all aboard!).

Don't ask me about the Padres, I still wouldn't be surprised if they finish under .500. Between them and the Mariners, I don't think I should try making picks for either western division next year. I stand by my pre-season assessment of Seattle's roster. What can I say? Baseball's crazy sometimes, and Milton Bradley's crazy all the time.

If I'm the Dodgers, I get some extra bullpen help. George Sherrill has been terrible. Also, Joe Torre has destroyed so many relief pitchers that he should have an arm surgery named after him, so they'll need someone for whenever Jonathan Broxton's shoulder explodes. Either way, unless they get Manny back healthy for the last two months, the Dodgers are heading for third place.

I don't like Colorado's chances. Ubaldo Jimenez doesn't look right anymore, and they can't win without him. They might add an outfield bat, but I bet they stay put.

Texas may be the only AL west team worth talking about, and they already made their move. I may be the last baseball fan in the world to be totally sold on Cliff Lee, but I'm sold now, Cliff Lee is the man. I don't see how the Angels catch Texas. The Angels are interesting because I could see them getting in on Oswalt or Haren, but I could also see them being sellers. Bobby Abreu would make an interesting addition to a lot of teams looking for an outfield bat.

So, to wrap up:
Oswalt - staying in Houston, or maybe going to St. Louis
Haren - Atlanta, or maybe the Yankees
Ted Lilly - Philadelphia
Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman - Boston
Jeff Francoeur - San Diego, serving drinks at a Chili's near the ballpark
Mets - Brett Myers and 81 wins.
Yankees - Zack Greinke and/or Joakim Soria
Padres - made a secret deal with the devil
Dodgers/Rockies/Angels/Brewers/Marlins/Mets/Blue Jays/Cubs - thanks for playing, see you next year.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - AL East

Before we get to my last division, let's do some big picture predictions. I could tell you that Roy Halladay will win a Cy Young award and Albert Pujols will be the NL MVP, and I'd probably be right, but where's the fun in that? Let's go out on a limb a little.

AL Rookie of the Year - Justin Smoak
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez (OK, not a big limb here)
AL MVP - Kevin Youkilis
NL Rookie of the Year - Jason Heyward (no limb at all here, whatever)
NL Cy Young - Ubaldo Jimenez
NL MVP - Justin Upton

Quick note on Heyward. I didn't even mention him when I talked about the Braves. I honestly didn't think he'd make their opening day roster. Now that he's there, I'm sold. Let's get to baseball's best division.

Boston Red Sox
I don't hate the Red Sox. There's something about sports hate that I just don't get. I don't like the Red Sox, I root against them when they're playing the Yankees, but I don't hate them. When they won in 2004, I was unhappy about the ALCS, but I was honestly happy for Sox fans when they won the world series. I wasn't rooting for them to win, but it didn't make me angry. I guess if all fans were like me, sports would be less fun.

Off-season: Something about Boston's off-season left me wanting more. John Lackey was a nice start, but this team is already so stacked with pitching, it didn't really feel necessary. Meanwhile, on the line-up side of things, they replaced Jason Bay with an aging Mike Cameron. Cameron isn't a base stealer anymore (7 last year) and was never a great hitter for average (.250 career). Cameron's greatest asset was always his defense, but at 37, I have my questions about how good he'll actually be (and how long before they move Ellsbury back to center field). And I'm not sure how much better Adrian Beltre is than Mike Lowell. I know Lowell's 36 and basically held together with duct tape, but he hit .290 last year.

Line-up: This team strikes me as one bat short. The conventional wisdom says that bat is Adrian Gonzalez and he'll be arriving soon enough, but where do you put him. Do you bench Ortiz? Do you move Youkilis to third and bench Beltre? San Diego wouldn't take either of those guys back in a trade. I like Ellsbury's speed, but I'm not so wild about his .350 career OBP. I like JD Drew more than most people do, but he's still JD Drew. Ortiz is the key here. People will tell you he was much better in the second half last year, but only the power really came back, he still only hit .258 after the break. Add that to his .212 average all year against lefties and I wouldn't be too encouraged. If Ortiz hits again, this team can score with anyone. If not, like I said, one bat short.

Pitching: Boston has, by far, the best pitching in baseball. It's not even remotely close. Not only does their rotation go 6 deep (which I guess is good because Dice K is already hurt), but they've also got guys like Casey Kelly ready in the minors if needed. Jon Lester could win the Cy Young this year and I think Clay Bucholtz has a break out year in him. The bullpen is just as scary. Papelbon makes things interesting, but his 1.85 ERA last year says he knows how to close the deal. Bard and Delcarmen could both probably close for about 15 other teams. Just thinking about the Yankees trying to score runs against this team is making me dizzy.

Final Thought: Boston's organizational depth scares me. If there's a big outfield bat on the trade market in July, the Red Sox have the chips to make the deal. Ortiz clogging up the DH spot makes it a little harder for them to add someone, but they'll have to bench him eventually if he doesn't hit.

Prediction: First place. I have my concerns about their line-up, but the pitching and the pitching depth they have sets them up nicely to win consistently over the long season. When the injuries start to come and everyone needs to go to their 7th or 8th starter, the Sox will still be throwing studs out there while the Yankees are down to Sergio Mitre. How will they do in the playoffs?...let's find out.

New York Yankees
I've said this before and I'll say it again. Being a Yankee fan is no fun. You expect a championship every year, anything else is a huge disappointment. There's no joy after a win, just relief. It's the sports equivalent of a heroin addiction. It's great at first, but after a while you need a world series ring just to get you to normal.

Off-season: Trades were the big deal this off-season. I give them around a B+ for the Granderson thing. I like Austin Jackson, but you never know with prospects. I give them an A+++ for the Vazquez thing. Braves fans are about to find out what we Yankee fans already know, Melky Cabrera is a 4th outfielder, nothing more. That was a steal. Nick Johnson and Randy Winn were interesting signings. I like Johnson and I look forward to the 20 or 30 healthy games I get to see him play this year.

Line-up: The Yankees have the best line-up around. I'm not wild about Nick Swisher, but I like Brett Gardner more than most people do and Granderson brings serious power (40 HR's easy in Yankee Stadium). I like Robinson Cano for the AL batting title this year. If Alex Rodriguez has one more MVP caliber season left in him, it should happen now. With this line-up, in that park, this team will score and score and score. In other news, water is wet and the sun is hot.

Pitching: I'm not crazy about the Yankees' pitching. I've never been a big Pettitte fan (Yankee sacrilege, I know) and while I like the Vazquez trade because of the nothing the Yankees gave up, I was also here in 2004 when we saw him last. I like Phil Hughes for the 5th starter spot,but what happens when he gets hurt (and history says he probably will). The bullpen makes me a little nervous too. Robertson, Marte, Aceves, Joba? Eek. I know people remember Joba being a lights out 8th inning guy when he first came up, but he's not that guy anymore, not even close. Lots of high scoring games for this team.

Final Thought: The Yankees don't have a lot left for mid-season deals. Austin Jackson was their biggest chip. They still have Jesus Montero, but they'd really like to keep him. They could get in on a big outfield bat too, but I feel like Boston could outbid them.

Prediction: Second place and the AL wild card. But guess what? I think the Yankees can take the Sox in a short series. By October, Boston's pitching will be a little more manageable. Beckett's never right by the end of the season and Dice K can't stay healthy. The Yankee line-up is solid enough to deal with Boston's pen. I like Boston in the long run, but I think the Yankees are a better team head to head. I see another world series for the Yanks.

Tampa Bay Rays
Did you know Tampa Bay isn't even a real city? And not just because New York is the only real city. There's no city in Florida called Tampa Bay. A few years ago, I could follow that up with a joke about how the Rays aren't a real baseball team, but not anymore. Still a stupid name though. Devil Rays was stupid to begin with, Rays is even stupider.

Off-season: As usual, the Rays mostly sat back and watched other teams sign players. They did pick up Rafael Soriano. I like Soriano, but he's another guy who can't stay healthy. But, if he does stay healthy, Soriano was solid for Atlanta last year (27 saves, 2.97 ERA. Not bad) and he's a good addition.

Line-up: I don't like this line-up as much as TV guys seem to. Longoria could be the MVP this year, or really any year for the next 10, and I like BJ Upton and Carl Crawford. But, like the AL East itself, this line-up has a weak underbelly. Dioner Navarro hit .218 last year. Pat Burrell's been so bad this spring that Tampa appears to be considering Hank Blalock at DH. Carlos Pena's a nice power hitter, but he hit .227 last year, including .211 against lefties. And, they still don't have a right fielder. They gave up Edwin Jackson last spring for Matt Joyce, who proceeded to give them nothing. Can this team score? Hell yeah. Can they score with the Yankees and the Red Sox? I don't see it.

Pitching: Like Boston, pitching is a real strength for Tampa. Unlike Boston, I don't really see an ace here. Both Shields and Garza had losing records and ERA's around 4 last year. Wade Davis and David Price could both be aces someday, but probably not this year. You know how I feel about teams without aces. I like this bullpen, but it let them down last year. It takes a lot of pitching to hold up in this division, I'm not sure if Tampa has it.

Final Thought: Does it bother anyone else that this team would win the NL west by about 40 games?

Bonus Final Thought: I'm so excited for when the Yankees sign Carl Crawford, I can barely contain myself. He'll be the best lead-off hitter I've seen in pinstripes since they had Rickey Henderson, and Crawford's not even crazy. I can't wait.

Prediction: Third place. This is sad, since they're probably the third best team in baseball. Look out below if they start slow and start trading people early. This is the still the Tampa Bay Rays, they know where last place is.

Baltimore Orioles
Off-season: For some reason, my brain kept telling me Miguel Tejada was a bust the first time around in Baltimore, then I looked at the numbers. He hit .330 in 2006. He drove in 150 runs for them 2004. Holy crap! Last year in Houston he still hit .313. Not a terrible addition. I don't see Garret Atkins doing a whole lot for them, this is a guy who couldn't hit at Coors field last year. Finally, the Orioles just traded for Julio Lugo. Red Sox fans can tell you that there's nothing good about that last sentence.

Line-up: This isn't a bad line-up. Really promising young outfield, solid infield. Matt Wieters should have his first of many really good seasons. They can't hit with the Yankees, but they can hit. I'd be willing to buy this team as a contender in another division.

Pitching: Sigh. I like Brian Matusz, so does everyone else. But playing a third of your games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays doesn't really lend itself to developing young pitching. People say Kevin Millwood is underrated. Really? I'm looking at his numbers, I think unimpressed is exactly how I'm supposed to feel. The bullpen isn't terrible, but Mike Gonzalez already has some back issues, so it's not starting out well on the injury front. Not a lot to like here.

Final Thought: This is a wierd team. Some young guys, some old guys, pitching on the way but mostly not there yet. The 2010 Orioles are the poster children for a rebuilding year. At least Baltimore fans have Boog's BBQ.

Prediction: Fourth place. This team is clearly better than Toronto and clearly worse than everyone else. I may be more confident about Baltimore for fourth place than I am about anything else I've predicted.

Toronto Blue Jays
I'm not the first person to say this, but the '94 strike murdered baseball in Toronto. Now that the Expos are gone, can't we just move this team to Las Vegas and let Canada focus on hockey? Wouldn't that be best for everyone?

Off-season: The Halladay trade was really the headline for Toronto's off-season. Whenever giving away your best player turns out to be the highlight of your off-season, that's not a good sign. They also signed Jose Molina. On behalf of Yankee fans everywhere, thanks.

Line-up: I like Aaron Hill (36HR from 2nd base last year) and I like Adam Lind (.305/35/114 last year, wow). Unfortunately, that's about it. Did Vernon Wells get old in a hurry, or was he never really that good? Same question about Lyle Overbay. The Reds just got tired of looking at Edwin Encarnacion. In case you haven't noticed, Cincinnati isn't exactly swimming with great talent. I look at this line-up and I see outs, lots of them.

Pitching: ...move along people...nothing to see here.

Final Thought: Just when I thought I couldn't be any less excited about this team, I remembered that they play in a dome. When I'm President, I'm outlawing indoor baseball. I don't care if it's cold in Toronto in April, it's cold in New York too, you don't hear us complaining.

Prediction: Last place. I feel bad for this team, lots of ass kickings in their immediate future.

Oh...who's winning the world series? Well, I've got the Yankees and Phillies getting there again. I like Philadelphia's pitching, but their bullpen might be a mess. If Brad Lidge has a year like he had in 2008, I like the Phillies in 7. If Brad Lidge has a year like he had last year, I like the Yankees in 6 again. That's not exactly a definitive prediction, but it's all I've got for now.