It's Baseball Time Again! - AL East

Welcome to the best division in baseball.  What makes this division better than the NL East?  In a (made up) word, the AL East has the important quality of Metlessness.  Why am I so down on the Mets?  When the Mets had Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and K-Rod, they were barely a contender.  Now they have exactly one and a half of those things. 

Anyway, where was I?  Oh right, the AL East.

New York Yankees

Good News: We all know the Yankees can hit, but something about the pitching staff this season actually makes sense to me.  It's not perfect, but I really like Michael Pineda (the Yankees made a good trade, for young talent, I'm still stunned) and I'm willing to classify the bullpen in front of Rivera as "not terrible". 

Bad News: Everything about Hiroki Kuroda tells me he's a guy who will be crushed in the American League, I have no faith in him.  Also, Mariano Rivera is 42 years old.  42!  I can't find anything in his 2011 statistics to suggest a decline (K rate actually went back up, innings held steady with 2010 numbers), but seriously, he's 42.  This can't go on forever.

Anything else we need to know?: What do I have to do to convince my fellow Yankee fans that Andy Pettitte was never that great to begin with.  It seems like most fans' reaction to the news of Andy's comeback was "yeah!".  My reaction was "Why?".  And speaking of Yankees I'm not a huge fan of, Nick Swisher.  I know he puts up good numbers and always stays healthy (at least 150 games played in six straight seasons), but his at-bats are torture.

Prediction: This makes me nervous, but I think the Yankees can win the division, and the World Series.  I know, I'm a homer.  Seriously though, I think this can happen.

Boston Red Sox

Good News: Andrew Bailey is every bit as good as Jonathan Papelbon, and 100% less crazy (I think, maybe playing in Boston was what made Papelbon crazy in the first place, I guess we'll see).  Cody Ross isn't any worse than JD Drew, and comes with the added benefit of not being JD Drew.  More importantly, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis have to be better than they were last year, Youk should be an MVP candidate (although I like Robinson Cano for AL MVP this year).  Plus they get Clay Buchholz back.  Lots of good news for the Sox (and they needed some).

Bad News: The bottom of Boston's rotation is kind of a mess (I love Daniel Bard as a closer and I love Alfredo Aceves as a middle/long reliever, I'm not sold on either of them as starters) .  Also, Bobby Valentine is super-overrated.  I know he once got an absolutely mediocre Mets team to a world series, but they got trounced in that series, and it was like 13 years ago. 

Anything else we need to know?: I live in Red Sox country now, which means that when the Yankees play the Sox, I only get to watch the Sox broadcast.  Booooooooo!!!!!!!!!

Prediction: Second place, wild card, not much else. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Good News: Tampa's starting rotation is going to pitch the shit out of the ball.  David Price had more strike-outs and less walks last year than he did in 2010, when he got serious Cy Young consideration.  Wade Davis should be better, Matt Moore should be awesome and James Shields seems to have figured something out.  And if any of those guys fail, Jeff Niemann is still around as the 6th starter.

Bad News: Still not a lot of offense in Tampa.  Add that to a bullpen that would be best described as "shaky", and it sounds like a recipe for a lot of late inning losses to Boston and New York.

Anything else we need to know?: Yeah, yeah.  I know Kyle Farnsworth was very good last year, but he's still Kyle Farnsworth.  Until the end of time, I will describe any bullpen which includes Kyle Farnsworth as shaky.

Prediction: Third place, the other wild card and probably a trip to the ALCS.  I think so anyway.  I honestly can't decide between the Rays and the Angels for the second AL wild card.  Tampa's a better team, but they don't get to play Seattle and Oakland as much as the Angels do.  Screw it, I'm going with Tampa.

Baltimore Orioles

Good News: Is it just me, or do the Orioles look like they can hit?  Not a ton, but some.  Right?  It may be time for a break-out year for Matt Wieters too.  Baltimore won't win a lot, but they won't be terrible either.

Bad News: Is it just me, or can the Orioles not pitch at all?  Baltimore's whole staff is a hodge podge of guys who probably aren't ready yet (Arrieta, Britton) and guys who will probably never be ready (Hammel, Chen, Tommy Hunter).  And what's going on with Brian Matusz?  This whole thing is a catastrophe.

Anything else we need to know?: Whenever I think of Baltimore, I immediately think of The Wire.  Wallace was on House this week.  Where's Wallace at?  He was in Dillon, Texas for a while, and then he was on House.  That's where Wallace is at.

Prediction: Fourth place, should be fun to watch (and hit against).

Toronto Blue Jays

Good News: Toronto is a super nice city.  It's like if you put an American city in a dishwasher, and then added the hockey hall of fame, and cool Canadian accents to all the people.   Oh, you wanted good baseball news?  Sorry, I don't have any of that.

Seriously, Any good news?: Well, I don't hate Toronto's bullpen.  I don't love it, but I don't hate it.

Bad News: Adam Lind followed a break-out 2009 by hitting .237 and .251 the next two seasons.  Jose Bautista's steroids suspension has to happen eventually (sorry, I meant to say that I'm sure he's perfectly clean, because it's totally reasonable for a 30-year-old player to suddenly become awesome at hitting, and I know this because I learned nothing from the late 90's).

Anything else we need to know?: I kinda thought Toronto stole Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, but it's starting to seem more like St. Louis knew something that Toronto (and I) didn't know.  That was actually probably more likely all along.

Prediction: Last place.  It's not that Toronto is so awful, but they aren't good and this division is.

Love and Baseball

Welcome to the first of what will probably be three or four comments on baseball's endlessly entertaining off-season. Baseball easily has the best off-season of any sport. Of course, the things that make the off-season so much fun, like the lack of a salary cap, also make the regular season less fun in the form of no hope for certain teams (Hello Pittsburgh!). So it's a trade off, but one I'm happy to take as a Yankee fan.

Now, I can't just plop a bunch of opinions about what's happening so far down in a blog entry and expect people to read it, where's the fun in that? I need an angle, some kind of idea. And luckily, I have one. I've always thought the off-season in baseball is very analogous to love. The courtship, the successes and failures, everyone trying to find just the right person, even though hardly anyone ever does. How some people are just hopeless (hello again Pittsburgh!). It think this works, so let's try it.

I went to a wedding last month. The two people who got married, they're the best couple ever, a winning combination, like alcohol and night swimming, or peanut butter and jelly (good jelly, not that crappy jelly that's hard to spread and gets all over everything except your sandwich. Maybe that just happens to me). Anyway, my point is, excellent couple, long happy life together. My buddy Steve told me he set them up, if that's true, he should scrap his going nowhere lawyering career and start up some kind of match making service.

This is how I feel about the Red Sox and John Lackey. Lackey's exactly the kind of surly bulldog type that Boston fans love and he's exactly the kind of surly bulldog type that won't care if they hate him (which, ironically, is why they'll love him). He fits perfectly into what will absolutely be the best rotation in baseball, and they probably still have the best bullpen in baseball. This is a good fit for Lackey, too. I've never been sold on him as an ace, I think he's a number 2. Beckett and Lester give him the kind of supporting cast that means he doesn't have to pitch beyond his ability, like he had to in Anaheim. So, as a Yankee fan, why aren't I bashing my head against the keyboard right now?

I have a theory. I think it takes two people to be in love. I don't think you can say you're "in love" with someone unless you have some reason to believe they feel the same way. You can have a crush, you can love someone, but you can't say you're in love with someone unless you can reasonably believe they're in love with you.

This brings us to Jason Bay and why I'm not scared of the Red Sox. I think the Sox would tell you they're in love with Jason, and why not. He's a great fit there, he drives in runs and keeps his mouth shut. He basically gives you about 85% of what Manny Ramirez gave you on the field while giving you 0% of what Manny gave you off the field. Problem is, I don't think Bay feels the same way. I think if Jason Bay wanted to re-sign in Boston, it'd be done already. He knows no one except the Yankees can outbid Boston, and the Yankees don't seem interested. I think Bay's looking for a way out of Boston. Maybe the town's too big for him, maybe the rabid fans annoy him. I don't know, but I don't think he's going back unless the offers he gets from other teams are really unremarkable. No second date for Bay and the Sox, sorry.

Sometimes you meet someone, and you'll do things with that person that you wouldn't do with anyone else (no, I'm not talking about that, get those dirty minds out of the gutter). I'm talking about, for example, somebody once got me to try sushi. I don't eat fish, uncooked fish? That's like double fishy fish. Would I do it again? Hell yeah! Why? Because sometimes what you're doing is far less important than who you're doing it with.

This brings us to Andy Pettitte. The Yankees just signed Andy to a one-year deal worth $11.75 million. 11.75 million dollars for a 37 year old, number three starter who went 14-8 last year on a really good team. Pettitte's last dominant year in the American League happened in 1997. He hasn't had an ERA under 4 in the American League since 2002. I can't imagine the Yankees wanted to spend next year paying $11.75 million for Andy Pettitte, but they will. Why? Because he's Andy Pettitte. The team loves him, the fans love him, he had a great post-season, he's Andy Pettitte. Do I think this was a really smart baseball move? No. Do I think Pettitte wins more than 12 games next year? No. Do I have a strong objection to this move by the Yankees? No.

Sometimes finding love means tough choices. Sometimes you meet someone great. They're attractive, interesting, fun, all the things you know you like. But, the two of you just don't click, you don't fit together, something isn't right. So, what do you do? Do you pass on what looks like a good opportunity because you know it doesn't feel right, or do you try to make it work?

This brings us back to the Yankees, this time, for Curtis Granderson. Lots to like about Granderson, speed, power, he's the legit center fielder the Yankees have been lacking. I just don't think he's the right fit. He's a career .272 hitter who hit .249 last year with a .327 on-base percentage, so he's not a top of the order guy, which means you still need to either bring back Johnny Damon or find someone else to hit second. Yes, he should hit 40 home runs next year if he stays healthy, but I think they gave up a lot for a guy who hits 5th or 6th next year, especially when hitting down in the order like that blunts the value of the speed he brings. Plus, he'll be 29 when the season starts, which means we may only be a couple of years away from stories about how he's lost a step and can't play center field anymore(I don't think people brought this up enough when the trade happened, I'd be about 13 times more excited about this if Granderson was 26). I think I would rather have taken Edwin Jackson in that deal. He's not a better player than Granderson, but he's a younger player at a more valuable position.

Sidenote: I heard yesterday Johnny Damon won't re-sign with the Yankees for anything less than they paid him last year. Bon voyage, Johnny. I can't remember the last time I saw a fast guy get so slow so quickly. It was like A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher pranked him by putting 20 pound weights in his shoes, only he never figured it out and they never told him.

Speaking of tough choices, sometimes you have a choice between settling for someone who you're not that crazy about or going it alone for a while. Maybe you haven't met someone who's right for you, or maybe that person isn't interested, but either way, you have the choice between second best or nothing at all.

This brings us to the Mets. This whole franchise is some sort of bizarre debacle. I, by the way, don't hate the Mets, I don't understand why Mets and Yankees fans hate each other. I'm from New York, I want New York teams to win, if the Yankees aren't playing, I'm all for the Mets winning. This is an imagined rivalry promoted by idiots. Having said that, the Mets franchise is a total disaster. They play in the world's best city, and they have their own network, but John Lackey is too expensive. They couldn't get in on Roy Halladay because nobody wants anything in their farm system. Now, they seem to be focusing on Jason Bay. Unless Jason has decided to take up pitching, he can't really help them that much. Oh, but don't worry Met fans, they just signed some Japanese guy, that always works out great.

So what's left? They can sign one of the second rate free agents, Joel Pinero's my favorite, and I wouldn't hate him for the Mets, but he isn't a number 2 and doesn't bring what they need. They can make a trade, but they don't have anything good to offer, so it would have to be for someone who's current team doesn't like him that much and wants to dump his salary. Maybe Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo. Bleh. Mets fans, the best thing your team can do is stay single for a while, it may seem miserable at times, but you're better off, trust me.

Finally, the big three team deal (or was it two different deals involving the Phillies? Wait, don't answer, I don't care). I don't know if I have any love analogies for this one. Maybe some kind of weird three-way where two of the people don't really know each other that well, but they're putting up with it because they both really wanted to have sex with the third person. That doesn't necessarily have anything to do with love though, let's just get to the trade.

Speaking of love though, I love what the Mariners are doing. Cliff Lee for some prospects, I don't care what Baseball America thinks the guys they gave up could become, Cliff Lee is already Cliff Lee. I've always thought of Lee as a number 2 pretending to be an ace, so putting him on a team that already has an ace makes perfect sense. Felix Hernandez will be the best pitcher in the American League next year (I would have said best period, but Roy Halladay's going to the NL and might not give up a run all year). Great one-two punch at the top of the rotation, young arms to fill it out, Chone Figgins joins Ichiro to give them a fast and exciting top of the order (I'd bat Figgins lead off and let Ichiro get his 225 hits while Figgins and his speed are standing on base). I love this team, they need one more bat, but they're on the right track.

The Phillies? I'm not sure how I feel about this for them. Yes, Halladay is a real ace, so a bit of an upgrade. And yes, I think it's possible Halladay pitches to something like a 0.19 ERA in the National League (OK, I'm exaggerating, but honestly, can you tell me you can't see him having a Bob Gibson type season next year? It's at least possible, right?) And Halladay gives them a righty to go with Cole Hamels, who should bounce back next year and still has a good career ahead. But all they gave up? Including their best pitching prospect, just to upgrade from Lee to Halladay? I don't know, I'm not sold.

Toronto fans? I don't know what to tell you. I hope you're enjoying hockey season, because you can look forward to years of spirited battles with the Orioles for 4th place. I don't know how good Kyle Drabek is going to be, but I know when he gets there Toronto will trade him or let him go sign with the Yankees. Whatever, Toronto's a hockey town.

I'll be back to this a couple of times between now and spring training. We still don't know where Matt Holliday is going, I'd like to see him stay in St. Louis. Jason Bay is still up in the air, although I think it's possible he reluctantly signs with Boston because no one else really wants him, unless the Mets make a big push. I could also see Florida getting involved there as a late surprise. Lots of 2nd tier pitchers still out there, I'd like to see the Yankees grab one. Also, I just heard the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson. I like this idea, and it's good for Nick too. If he's a DH, he might not get hurt quite so constantly.

Ironically, as similar as I think they are, I know quite a bit about baseball, and very little about love. So, if you disagree with anything I said about love today, you're probably right. But, if you disagree with anything I said about baseball today, you're wrong, sorry.