MLB First Impressions - National League

...and now for the National League...

Washington Nationals
I'm not as crazy about Bryce Harper as I think some people want me to be, but the TV did remind me that he's a year younger than Mike Trout, so I guess we'll see.  Meanwhile, Washington added Dan Haren and Rafael Soriano, and Stephen Strasburg should be mostly free of innings limits this season.  Washington looks really really good.  Easy division winner.  Can we force them to move back to Montreal at this point?

Atlanta Braves
I've always said double the Upton equals double the awesome.  Why wouldn't you want both Upton brothers on your team?  Some things worry me about the Braves.  Tim Hudson is 37 and can't do this forever.  Kris Medlen has to regress a little bit, right?  The left side of the infield has a real "who the fuck are those guys?" vibe going.  Still, having an excellent bullpen and cornering the market on Uptons should be plenty to land Atlanta a wild card spot.

Philadelphia Phillies
Can we just fire Charlie Manuel now and get it over with?  On paper, this team still looks like it should be good, except that it isn't.  I've never trusted Cliff Lee, and I never will.  And now I'm hearing Roy Halladay and "decreased velocity" in the same sentence an awful lot.  And did you know Chase Utley is 34?  I didn't know that.  Yikes.  I love Cole Hamels, the rest of this is a disaster waiting to happen.

Miami and The Mets
Speaking of yikes.  Neither one of these teams has any redeeming quality that would allow me to choose one over the other.  If I have to pick one, I'll pick the Mets to finish just ahead of Miami, if only because the Mets are used to being depressing by now while the Marlins are still sort of reeling from the embarrassment that was last season.  The Mets also have David Wright, which I suppose is marginally better than not having David Wright. 

Cincinnati Reds
I looked at Cincinnati's depth chart and thought "Ryan Ludwick?  Still?".  But then I actually looked at his numbers from last year and they aren't half bad.  More importantly, I love everything about the Reds' pitching and they picked up the Choo Choo train.  All aboard for a division title!

St. Louis Cardinals
Word is Chris Carpenter is most likely done.  That's sad.  As for the rest of the Cardinals, there's so much about this roster that makes me nervous.  Jason Motte seems like one of those "hey, remember that brief period of time when that guy was good?" guys.  Beltran and Holliday are both guys who are older than you think they are, but also seem older than they actually are, if that makes sense.  I don't like what I'm seeing here.  Still second place though, because this division is terrible, even without Houston.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are a lot like the Royals only, unlike the Royals, they haven't yet bothered to go out and get some actual pitching.  Also, I don't know if the Pirates know this, but Russell Martin hit .211 last year.  Who signs that guy to be a starting catcher?  I'm sorry, I can't take the Pirates seriously until they start taking themselves seriously.

Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Braun is pretty good, so there's that.  I'm just so underwhelmed by the rest of this roster.  I thought we had all given up on Carlos Gomez.  Maybe I'll like them better when they get Corey Hart back.  Probably not though.  When does training camp start for the Packers?

Chicago Cubs
Talk about bottoming out.  Is Carlos Marmol still seriously the Cubs' closer?  They had all off-season to think about this and nobody had a better idea?  He's not even young anymore, he's 30.  And I don't even want to speculate about how old Alfonso Soriano is.  Theo Epstein better know what he's doing.  When people in Chicago get angry, shit goes down.

Arizona Diamondbacks
OK, usually when I think Arizona is going to the playoffs they wind up finishing last, so I apologize to D'Backs fans in advance, but I think Arizona wins the west.  Solid pitching, solid offense, solid everything.  Guys like Martin Prado and Cody Ross are really nice pick-ups.  They're the kind of guys you see filling roles on winning teams.  Also, remember the name Adam Eaton.

San Francisco Giants
Yes, Tim Lincecum is zeroing in on being finished, but the Giants still have Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, and the surprisingly adequate Barry Zito.  I really like this team, no great hitters, but lots of perfectly solid bats.  I think this is actually the best team in the division, but they'll be hurt by some early season Lincecum train wrecks before they figure out he's finished and I think they wind up settling for a wild card.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Hey, remember when everyone said you didn't want to sign Carl Crawford to a long term contact because he'll eventually lose a couple of steps and suddenly be very mediocre at best.  Well that's happening now, enjoy Dodgers fans.  The Dodgers have the potential to be legitimately not awful, but too many question marks for me.

Colorado Rockies
Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki have to be enough to make this team better than San Diego, right?  Right?  I heard the Rockies signed Jon Garland.  That's not a bad move, as long as this is 2005.  Is this 2005?

San Diego Padres
Add San Diego to the long list of teams that decided to try to turn a potentially excellent closer into a starter.  Too bad Andrew Cashner, you would have made a solid closer, instead you just go on the pile with Daniel Bard and Joba Chamberlain.  The Padres are a mess.  Can we relegate them and call up a triple A team?

National League MVP: Maybe if I keep picking Justin Upton I'll actually be right one year.
National League Cy Young: Cole Hamels!  Cole Hamels!
National League Champs:  This is tough.  Look, I'm going to have to pick Washington, but I don't have to like it.  I think the Nats lose to Tampa in the World Series.  There you go.

It's Baseball Time Again! - NL East

Remember when, sometimes, I used to write stuff about sports? I don't remember that either, but my blog's archives swear it happened. Let's see if I can get through all six divisions without comparing a position battle to Mitt Romney vs. Rick Santorum.

There's something reassuring about the beginning of baseball season. Baseball isn't the best sport to watch on TV, or the best fantasy sport (football). It isn't the most fun sport to watch in person (hockey). It isn't the sport that gives you the most "holy crap! I can't believe he just did that!" moments (basketball). But there is something about baseball. It's like an old friend that comes back every spring, no matter what. It's comforting.

Let's start with the NL East, because, honestly, I can't wait any longer to make fun of the Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies

Good News: For starters, those Halladay, Lee and Hamels fellas are still pretty good. Off-season addition Jonathan Papelbon gives them a closer with a proven post-season track record, as opposed to the unproven but talented Ryan Madson. Papelbon is still hit or miss sometimes, but nobody is more hit or miss than Brad Lidge was, so the Phillies are ready for that. Phillies fans won't mind a full season of Hunter Pence, either. And Hunter won't mind a full season of Citizens Bank Park.

Bad News: This team isn't any worse than they were last year, but they aren't really that much better either, and how did last year turn out? Also, Chase Utley's brain may be 33, but the rest of his body appears to be in its mid to late 60's.

Anything else we need to know?: For those Phillies fans who have been patiently waiting for Domonic Brown, it appears you may have to keep waiting. He's 24 now. I'm starting to worry.

Prediction: The Phillies are tough for me. They're good enough to win the division, and they have the pitching to win in the post-season, and yet...for a championship or bust team, I think this year turns out to be another bust.

Washington Nationals

Good News: Stephen Strasburg is back, and the Nationals were the clear winners of Oakland's pitching fire sale (if you offered me Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey for Gio Gonzalez, I wouldn't take it). Jayson Werth can't be any worse than he was last year (right?). Brad Lidge (23K's in 19.1 innings after coming back from injury last year) joins Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen in what should be a serviceable bullpen, even after Lidge's shoulder explodes in mid-May.

Bad News: They're still the Nationals. There are only two kinds of people who do baseball predictions, people who pick the Nationals to win stuff, and people who get things right.

Anything else we need to know?: Bryce Harper is on the way. He should be crushing 800 foot homeruns in Washington by the end of the summer. When he gets there, we'll find out if Jayson Werth can still play centerfield, I suspect he can't. But who cares...Bryce Harper is on the way!

Prediction: The Nationals will take one of the NL wild cards, partially because they're pretty good, and partially because they get to play the Mets a bunch of times. In other news, reports from hell say the weather is getting "pretty chilly down here".

Miami Marlins

Good News: Opening day - "It's a beautiful April day here in sunny Miami, and Marlins fans are excited for what should be the team's best season in years. Miami has young power throughout its line-up, world class speed at the top of the order and a solid pitching staff anchored by the returning Josh Johnson and free agent pick-ups Mark Buehrle and veteran closer Heath Bell. Expect the Marlins to contend all the way through September this year folks!"

Bad News: Sometime around game 70 or 80 - "More bad news today for the Marlins, folks. Jose Reyes and his pulled hamstring will join Heath Bell and Josh Johnson on the DL. Bell is still reportedly at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound again, and no timetable has been set for Johnson. Reyes' absence only exacerbates the on-going Hanley Ramirez saga, as Hanley and the team still haven't talked since he demanded a trade and walked out on the team 10 days ago. In other news, still no sign of Carlos Zambrano, who hasn't been seen since he reportedly went to visit Key West on an off day in May, though he did recently send a cryptic text message to manager Ozzie Guillen which simply read 'TEQUILA!', so we know Carlos is alive."

Anything else we need to know?: Maybe changing his name to Giancarlo will result in less strike-outs for Mike "Giancarlo" Stanton, but I don't think that's actually how it works.

Prediction: As you may have guessed from my bad news synopsis, I don't see this season going particularly well for Miami, but they are talented and can probably finish around .500.

Atlanta Braves

Good News: Venters and Kimbrel potentially give Atlanta a lock-down bullpen, so they won't lose too many games when they're leading after 7. Also, I'm always sort of lukewarm on Atlanta, and I'm usually wrong.

Bad News: Atlanta's rotation worries me. I'm not sold on a May 1st return date for Tim Hudson. I'm concerned about a 25 year old future ace who already missed a chunk of one season with shoulder tendonitis (Tommy Hanson). I'm not convinced Brandon Beachy can continue striking out almost 11 batters per nine innings. I don't understand why Jair Jurrjens can't go more than six innings, or stay healthy. All of these things worry me.

Anything else we need to know?: All bets are off if Jason Heyward has the season in 2012 that we all expected in 2011. Heyward is the kind of guy who can carry an offense all by himself if he gets right and gets going. You just have to ask yourself if he's ready to do that yet.

Prediction: I say not yet for Heyward, and 4th place for Atlanta, but all four of these teams can be pretty good, and a wild card for Atlanta wouldn't shock me.

New York Mets

Good News: See, the thing about the Mets is...because, ya know...and it's just...I mean...so...yeah.

Bad News: I don't even know where to start. The fruits of what was possibly the worst minor league system in baseball over the last decade are now starting for the big league club. The Mets' most exciting prospect of the last few years (Jenrry Mejia) is coming off Tommy John surgery and probably won't pitch anywhere until August. Jason Bay is still missing in action. Johan Santana is back, and throwing in the mid-80's. I could go on.

Seriously, any good news?: Well, Mets fans will enjoy Zack Wheeler eventually, but not this year, and probably not next year either. But you know what, Mets fans? You still live in New York, which is still better than rooting for a good team and living somewhere else.

Anything else we need to know?: One of the first things I ever wrote about baseball was how I would not want to be the team paying Johan Santana big money for the second half of his career. Two years later, that remains possibly the most true thing I've ever written.

Prediction: Any story this year about the Mets winning the NL East will have to be immediately proceeded by the story about the team planes of the other four teams in this division being involved in a disastrous mid-air collision.

The Curious Case of the Mets

In general, I don't believe in anything, or I at least try not to believe in anything. I try to know things, knowledge being belief in something that is true. We can't always know what is true, but we can try to find out.

So, I don't believe in god, or gods, or superstition. I don't believe in fate or destiny. I don't believe in ghosts or spirits. I know sometimes people can get lucky, but I don't believe a person, or a group, or a team can be consistently lucky or unlucky. I certainly don't believe in curses. And yet, there's the curious case of the New York Mets.

As a native New Yorker, the Mets were always somewhere on my TV. I would watch them whenever the Yankees were off, or rained out, or playing at a different time, or playing Baltimore for the 15th time and I just couldn't stand it anymore. I'm happy to root for the Mets as long as they aren't playing the Yankees (which, incidentally, should happen never unless they meet in the World Series; I hate interleague play SO MUCH).

I worry about the Mets. In the 24+ seasons since the 1986 World Series victory, here are some numbers on the B team in the nation's biggest market (which, of course, rightfully means they should be the best team in the National League):

11 losing seasons (including 103 losses in 1993, which put them 5 games behind the expansion Marlins)
11 different managers
4 playoff appearances
1 World Series appearance

And the playoff appearances...oh, the playoff appearances, almost tailor-made to slowly drive fans into insanity.

1988: The Mets go up 2-1 in the NLCS before losing two home games, only to win game six in Los Angeles and then ultimately get shut down by Orel Hershiser in a game 7 that was over after two innings.

1999: After falling behind Atlanta 3-0, the Mets fight back to make it a series with two one-run victories, including a 15-inning game 5 win in which they were down one going into the bottom of the 15th. Then, they lost game 6 by the score of 10-9 in extra innings after overcoming a 5-run first inning deficit.

2000: The Mets finally get all the way back to the World Series, only to have their pants pulled down on national television by a cross-town rival that simply had them outgunned. The Yankees never had a doubt, the Mets never had a chance.

2006: Game 7 against the spectacularly mediocre Cardinals. Down two, bases loaded, two outs. Carlos Beltran, easily the Mets' best player that season, watches somberly as strike three sails right on by, almost like he was thinking "OK, I've got him right where I want him, when he tries to throw strike four by me, I'm gonna hit it out of the park!".

What's wrong with the Mets? Why aren't they the best team in the National League, the one that New York deserves? Some people go right to ownership. As far as I'm concerned, the owner's only job is to provide money, and the Mets have been top 10 in payroll every year since 1986, including 2003 when they were second and still managed to lose 95 games. Say what you want about the Mets' ownership, they put up the cash.

Poor management then? Maybe, Omar Minaya made a lot of mistakes. Letting Willie Randolph, the best manager the team had since Davey Johnson (you heard me!), go in 2008 when the team was just one game under .500 was a huge blunder. But then, so was letting Davey Johnson, the most successful manager in Met history, go in 1990 when the team was 2 games under .500 just 42 games in. Omar was scouting for the Texas Rangers when that happened.

Omar signed a ton of bad contracts too. Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez were disasters. He overpaid for Carlos Beltran by at least 20 million dollars, and don't even get me started on Jason Bay. But Omar wasn't there for Bobby Bonilla, or Vince Coleman. He wasn't even the one who signed Kaz Matsui.

The Mets failed miserably, over and over again, to properly develop young talent under Omar Minaya. Lastings Milledge never panned out, and Fernando Martinez already looks pretty much ruined. Mike Pelfrey could have been an ace, but now it looks like he's rounding into a guy who can be the number 3 starter on a championship team.

But failure to properly handle prospects goes back 20 years for this franchise. Remember Gregg Jefferies? A constant disappointment with the Mets who left, spent a year toiling in Kansas City and then hit .342 and .325 in back to back years in St. Louis. I could fill this space just with names of talented guys who never panned out or good young players the Mets traded away (like Heath Bell, Scott Kazmir, Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, Bill Pulsipher, Milledge again just for fun, etc, etc, etc).

I've recently started to think the Mets' training staff may be to blame. How do you constantly have this many injuries to key guys? I understand Pedro Martinez was an injury risk when they signed him, everyone knew they wouldn't really get four full years from Pedro. Carlos Beltran seems to be falling apart, but maybe he's just getting older. Jason Bay played in at least 145 games every year since 2005, until last year. But maybe he's just getting older too. Maybe Jose Reyes is just injury prone. Maybe Johan Santana was always heading toward shoulder surgery. Maybe David Wright's recent back problem was just a freak thing. Maybe...maybe...maybe, but why are all these things happening to the same team?

I look at the Mets this year and I can't decide if they should go for the wild card or trade some key guys and start rebuilding. Currently, the Mets are two games over .500 and 7.5 games back of Atlanta in the wild card standings, and that's with, arguably, three of their best five players (Wright, Davis and Santana) on the DL, and a fourth one (Reyes) probably heading in that direction. If the Mets got all of those guys back by August 1st, and maybe added another pitcher (I'd love to see them add a #2 starter if they could find one), they could be a serious wild card contender.

On the other hand, this is probably their last chance to get something for Beltran, and they may have already missed the boat on getting something for Reyes while he was healthy. If they dealt Beltran, Reyes (if the injury isn't serious) and K-Rod, they could really stock a farm system that's currently running on empty. Additionally, the Mets (or Braves, or Diamondbacks, or Pirates or anyone else in the NL) have almost no shot at getting past the pitching in Philadelphia and San Francisco, so is it worth it for the Mets or anyone else to push knowing a playoff berth will ultimately end badly?

I think so. A healthy Met team, even with automatic outs at catcher and second base, can out-hit Philadelphia and San Francisco. If they were to add a legitimate #2 starter, that guy could join a healthy and fresh Santana, a solid #3 in Pelfrey and the emerging Dillon Gee or Jonathon Niese in a pretty formidable playoff rotation. You can't really count on the Mets' bullpen, but you can't really count on anyone's bullpen.

I said at the beginning of the season the Mets had "nobody believed in us" written all over them. That's even more true now with all the injuries. It's amazing what a competent manager can do with some talented players. I think the Mets should go for it, keep all the key guys and make one or two additions (namely, a starting pitcher. I've decided Chad Billingsley should be available. I'd suggest adding a second baseman, but I honestly can't think of one that might be available and worth anything).

If they can just get to the post-season, anything can happen, unless they're cursed. But even if they are cursed, they should still go for it. A cursed team can't win the World Series, but rebuilding won't help either, so they might as well have some fun before dumping another season into the black hole of losing. And I'll be rooting for them, because if they get to the World Series, I can't imagine they'll find the Yankees there. Just the thought of needing wins from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in October makes me a little queasy.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL East

Quick thought before we start. I'm tired of hearing people knock Charlie Sheen. I understand that most of us wouldn't enjoy, or even be able to survive, Charlie Sheen's life, but Charlie is enjoying the shit out of it. Why should he apologize for that? And his show sucks, so who cares anyway? On to the baseball...

Philadelphia Phillies
Opening Thought: "...and six months ago, when Doug introduced me to you guys I thought, wait a second, could it be? And now I know for sure, I just added two more guys to my wolf-pack. Four of us wolves, running around the desert in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine."

Roy Halladay has to be pretty psyched right now, right? Two years ago his prime was rotting away, perpetually in fourth place in Toronto. Now? His team practically has a bye to the world series. This literally couldn't have worked out any better for him.

Off-season: Who knew the Phillies would win the Cliff Lee sweepstakes? Even Lee had to be a little surprised when he signed with a team that didn't even really need him, to the point that it traded him...last year. I thought, for a while, maybe Philadelphia would trade one of the other pitchers they have for a big bat (say, Hamels and Howard for Pujols and Westbrook), but it looks like they're keeping everyone.

Questions: Who becomes the fifth starter for this team? Does Jimmy Rollins have anything left?

Answers: Who cares (although I actually like Kyle Kendrick over Joe Blanton) and I think so. I'd be worried about Rollins if I were a Philly fan, but he's only 32. I have to believe a healthy Rollins has at least one more good year in him.

My Favorite Thing: Ummmm, I'm gonna have to go with starting pitching. Random fun baseball fact. The 1971 Baltimore Orioles were the last team to have four 20-game winners on one staff. Just sayin'.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: This is a tough one. The Phillies struggled to score runs last year, and losing Jayson Werth won't help. Also, Brad Lidge only has two speeds, unhittable and totally awful, which makes the Philadelphia bullpen a little unpredictable. However, the bullpen also features Ryan Madson and a surprisingly effective Jose Contreras. In right field, top prospect Domonic Brown, who hit .327 in the minors last year, should be ready to replace Werth.

Closing Thought: Baseball's weird sometimes and teams that look too good to be true frequently are, but this team looks crazy on paper.

Prediction: First place, Philly fans can start buying world series tickets now.

Alright folks, that's it for the NL East, next week, we start the Americ....wait, what? You're saying there are other teams in this division? Hold on, I'll be right back...Hey! You were right.

New York Mets
Opening Thought: You heard me!

This isn't some kind of reverse jinx. I told you already, the Mets/Yankees rivalry is nonsense. MLB and ESPN just made it up to get you to watch their crappy interleague games. I'm rooting for the Mets, New York deserves two good teams.

Off-season: I would have liked to have seen the Mets get in on the Cliff Lee bidding, they desperately need another top end starter. Having said that, the Mets made a lot of little pick-ups this off-season that I think will help them. Scott Hairston is a nice player with a lot of flexibility and they added some bullpen depth. Not the splashiest off-seasons, but I think they got a little better.

Questions: Can this team tread water until Beltran and Santana get back? When will Luis Castillo's awful contract end?

Answers: Maybe and seemingly never (but actually after this season). I actually wouldn't hold my breath for getting anything useful from Santana or Beltran this year, but I think it's possible the rest of this team could contend on their own.

My Favorite Thing: I don't see why the Mets can't score runs, even without Beltran. Reyes should be healthy, they still have David Wright and Jason Bay and Ike Davis. Davis, by the way, in only 23 and should get noticeably better. I know Citi Field isn't exactly hitter-friendly, but the teams they're playing have to play there too and the Mets look to me like a team that should be able to produce enough runs to win more than they lose.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Starting pitching. Hopefully, at some point this season, Met opponents will, once again, find out that you don't mess with the Johan. Until then, this staff is a disaster with nobody that even resembles an ace. If you're sitting in the first few sections of outfield seats when the Mets visit your team, bring a glove, and maybe a helmet.

Closing Thought: Everybody's clear now on why the Twins couldn't get anything good for Santana, right? I'm not saying the Mets shouldn't have made the trade, they got an ace for what amounted to a few spare parts. But we all see why now, right? Santana was an "injury-plagued second half of his career" guy waiting to happen, and now it's happening.

Prediction: Second place and who knows. I like the Reds for the wild card, but the Mets have "nobody believed in us" written all over them.

Atlanta Braves
Opening Thought: If Atlanta continues being the worst sports city in America can we, at some point, start confiscating their teams?

Off-season: The big trade for Dan Uggla highlighted Atlanta's off-season. Uggla is 30 now, he was never a .300 hitter and last year was his first season over .260 since 2006, but, he's good for 30 home runs and he was always better on the road for Florida. I'm willing to call this a nice pick-up.

Questions: Who closes games for Atlanta? Is Jason Heyward ready to carry this offense?

Answers: You're probably looking at closer by committee in Atlanta. As for Heyward, I don't think so. Heyward is a great talent, but he's still only 21. If I'm the Braves, I'm just hoping he gets through the season healthy so I don't have to starting worrying that he's injury-prone.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching, but with one caveat. I love Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens, who just turned 25, is always good for a quality start. Add Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson and this rotation should be very good. The caveat? Lowe is 37 and can't do this forever. Hudson turns 36 this summer and isn't exactly the picture of health. More on this later.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Hasn't this always been the story in Atlanta? Quick hint for all MLB teams, never sign a reliever that once played for Joe Torre unless his name is Mariano. The Braves have two of them.

Closing Thought: I could go either way on the Braves. Something feels a little off about this team. I'm looking at Lowe and Hudson and thinking if they both start breaking down this year, could this be sort of a lost season for Atlanta? Maybe. On the other hand, if they both have one more good year left, this team could compete for a wild card.

Prediction: Third place, could be better, could be worse.

Florida Marlins
Opening Thought: "Lois, when I'm done with them, our kids will be so smart they'll be able to program their own VCR's without spilling piping hot gravy all over myself."

I feel like we're always waiting for Florida's kids to grow up. We're always one or two years away from them being really good, but we're never sure if we'll actually get there or if they'll just drop the kids off in Boston and New York before they're fully mature. Small market baseball, catch the fever!

Off-season: Dan Uggla out, Javier Vazquez in. I think Florida is banking on Vazquez being good again when he comes back to the NL, but at some point, he's just old, right?

Questions: How good is Mike Stanton? Can Hanley Ramirez carry this team to the post-season?

Answers: 22 home runs in 359 big league at-bats last year, and he's 21. So I'm going with pretty damn good. As for Hanley, I've seen no evidence that he can carry a team anywhere, except maybe a fantasy team.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Big season coming up for 27-year-old Anibal Sanchez. Write it down.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Rumors I've already read out of Florida's spring training camp about possible concerns with Josh Johnson's shoulder, or elbow, or back, or whatever. Spring training rumors about a pitcher being hurt rarely end well.

Closing Thought: Florida's offense leaves me cold. Hanley Ramirez is more of a stat monster than anything else and Mike Stanton is still probably a year or two away from being able to add a high average to his power.

Prediction: Fourth place. Another forgettable season in Miami.

Washington Nationals
Opening Thought: "Trying is the first step towards failure."

Off-season: Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche. What's going on here? Are the Nationals actually trying? My whole world is upside down, I'm starting to get a headache.

Questions: Will Livan Hernandez ever be finished? Can Adam LaRoche produce in the first half of a season for once?

Answers: Yes, stay tuned and no, probably not. Can't they just tell LaRoche it's July now?

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Werth has a year or two before his contract becomes awful and the Nationals still have Ryan Zimmerman and Nyjer Morgan. When Adam LaRoche shows up for the second half, this team should score.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. We'll see Stephen Strasburg in 2012 and until then, yuck.

Closing Thought: It'll be pretty sad if Washington actually tries once and still finishes last. To be honest, I kind of hope I'm wrong about this.

Prediction: Fifth place. Honestly, I'm not really sold on anyone is this division after Philadelphia. If Washington and the Mets finished in opposite positions from where I have them, it wouldn't shock me. Still, I can't believe the Nationals as contenders until I see it.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL East

My original plan was to do two baseball previews, one for each league. I started thinking about how long those would get and I decided I had a better idea. So, we're doing a division a week from now until the start of the season (one week gets two divisions, so we'll find the two least interesting divisions and lump them together, I'm looking at you AL Central). We're leading off this week with the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are the undisputed king of this division. Fans of other teams in this division may want to seriously consider ignoring this season. Sure, you can compete for the wild card, but you still have to watch your team get bashed by the Phillies 19 times. And even if you survive that, make the playoffs and win your first round series, there's just another bashing waiting for you courtesy of the Phillies. Really not a lot of upside.

Off-season: The NL champs actually got slightly better over the winter. Placido Polanco and Roy Halladay are, at least, marginal upgrades over Cliff Lee and Pedro Feliz. I don't like overstating expectations for guys, but Roy Halladay in the National League? Is it possible for a pitcher to have a negative ERA? Actually, the part of the Phillies' off-season that should scare other teams the most isn't anyone they picked up. We'll get to that in a minute.

Line-Up: Even if Werth and Ibanez both take steps back this year, which is certainly possible, especially for Ibanez, this is still a very deep line-up for the NL. Great speed at the top and great power in the middle. They're lacking power at third base, but that weakness is really cancelled out by the above average power at second base. You also have to like their depth. Mayberry and Francisco could probably start for a lot of teams, one of those guys won't even be the fourth outfielder for the Phillies.

Pitching: I don't love the back end of the Phillies' rotation, I think Jamie Moyer is just about done (of course, I would have told you that five years ago, so who knows). I also think J.A. Happ takes a step back to reality this year. On the other hand, you already know about Halladay and I think Hamels is ready for a big season. They've also got some young arms that may be ready to step in and compete for that 5th starter role. The back end of the bullpen could be a problem. Brad Lidge may be the most fragile guy in sports, but look at it this way. There's no way Lidge could be anymore of a mess than he was last year, and they still got to the world series.

Final Thought: Remember what I said about the scariest part of the Phillies' off-season? Here it is. They managed to get Roy Halladay without giving up Dominic Brown or Kyle Drabek. So, if they have an injury or just struggle a bit early, and they need another bat or another arm in July, they have better top end trading chips than almost any other team.

Prediction: First place, maybe 100 wins and another world series appearance. Three years in a row is tough, but I don't see a team in the NL that can hang with Philadelphia.

Florida Marlins
It's easy to get excited about a team like Florida. Lots of brand name young talent, and young talent suggests endless possibilities. But here's some reality. This wasn't a playoff team last year, and most people thought the Marlins overachieved in 2009. I'm not saying they can't contend, especially for the wild card, but I am wondering what happens if Josh Johnson gets hurt, or Hanley Ramirez.

Off-season: It's tough being a Marlins fan in the winter. I mean, sure, it's sunny, and warm, and you had the superbowl this year and you can still go to the beach in December. But who cares about all of that? They don't sign anyone, if they make a big trade, it's usually to give away a top player. Where's the fun in that? They did sign Josh Johnson to a long term deal, so that's another young pitcher the Yankees can't have until he's not young anymore.

Line-Up: I don't hate this line-up, but I don't love it either. If Gaby Sanchez steps up and has a big year, then they could surprise me, but if he doesn't, I can't see Jorge Cantu having another 100 RBI season and Dan Uggla hit .243 last year. I don't know why anyone would throw a strike to Hanley Ramirez. And if Hanley gets hurt...this team doesn't have a big margin for error.

Pitching: I love the Marlins' starting pitching, probably even a little more than the Phillies'. Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are both aces in my book (that's Sean's Big Book of Aces, pick it up wherever imaginary books are sold), and Anibal Sanchez has ace stuff too (if he can stay healthy, which is a lot like when I said Gilbert Arenas could have a big year if he avoided doing something crazy). The bullpen is a different story. The bullpen always suffers on low budget teams, it's the last place most teams put any real money. On the plus side, Hayden Penn and Dan Meyer were both serious prospects at one point, so they've got some potential back there, but I'm not sold on Leo Nunez. The question becomes, if this bullpen can't hold leads, how long can the starters hold up going 8 or 9 innings every start?

Final Thought: The Marlins are always interesting around the trading deadline as a dark horse candidate to pick up someone big. They always have good prospects, but they're rarely willing to take on salary. Let's say Florida is five games back in late July. Could you see Manny Ramirez spending two months in Miami and leading them on an improbable playoff run? Me too.

Prediction: Second place. I think a lot of people will pick the Marlins for the wild card, not me. I think they're a bat short and they've got too many injury risks in the rotation.

Atlanta Braves
I'm not a big Bobby Cox guy. A homeless guy from outside Fulton County Stadium could have led Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz to 5 or 6 division titles in the 90's. I'm not saying he's a bad manager, I'm just saying he's not that much better than anyone else.

Off-season: The Braves added Troy Glaus, Melky Cabrera, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. If you're thinking "I don't really see any good ideas in there", you're not alone. Put me down for June 1st in the Billy Wagner season ending surgery pool, and he might be the best addition out of those four.

Line-Up: I like Nate McLouth, and I like Yunel Escobar, and that's pretty much it. "What about Brian McCann?", you ask. Well, Brian's OPS was .834 last year. Is that really what you want from the guy who's supposed to be your best hitter? Probably not. The Braves can score some runs, but not enough.

Pitching: This is a completely different team if Tim Hudson wins 20 games. Assuming that doesn't happen, I don't mind the Braves' pitching, but it doesn't blow me away. Derek Lowe can dominate the league for two months if he gets on a roll, but he can also be awful for a month. That's not great from your ace. Jair Jurrjens pitched to a 2.60 ERA last year, but only averaged just over 6 innings a start and only won 14 games with that ERA. There's a guy who can win 20 with a strong bullpen, but the Braves don't have one. Also, Tommy Hanson will be a stud someday, but I'm not wild about him this year.

Final Thought: I'm wondering if Lowe and/or a rejuvenated Hudson become available around the trading deadline. That could be the most interesting thing the Braves do all year.

Prediction: Text book mediocre team, 81-81, third place. It's ridiculous to pick exact records in baseball, but this makes so much sense for Atlanta. It'll be like they weren't even there.

New York Mets
I really don't know what I'd do if I were a Mets fan. If Mets fans were children, and the Mets were their parents, the state would have taken the children away by now. Somebody should kill Mr. Met so he can roll over in his grave.

Off-season: Jason Bay was a solid start, and then...well...Gary Matthews Jr., Rod Barajas, Josh Fogg, etc. Kelvim Escobar is already like one step away from being out for the year. I don't know what happened to Omar Minaya, but we need to keep it away from the Bronx.

Line-up: With all the bad things I have to say about the Mets, I actually don't mind their line-up. If everyone else is still standing when Beltran gets back, this team should actually score some runs. I wish they had a lefty other than Murphy, but Beltran's switch hitting will help with that too. Mets fans should keep an eye out for Ike Davis. No one screws up prospects quite as efficiently as the Mets, but this guy might be can't miss. If Murphy struggles, and I think he will, you might see Davis sooner than later.

Pitching: Here's the thing about the Mets' pitching. I like everyone they have individually, but I hate them all on the same team. I'm not sold on Johan Santana's long term health. Every time I see John Maine pitch I really like his stuff, but he can't get through a season healthy. Oliver Perez is talented, but he also has health concerns on top of conditioning problems and general sanity issues. And the bullpen is just a mess. I don't have a problem with K-Rod, but how do they plan to get to him?

Final Thought: One of the Mets' biggest problems in the total lack of organizational depth. Even if they had been willing to pay him, they couldn't get in on the Halladay sweepstakes because they didn't really have anything Toronto wanted. They don't really have much anybody wants. So even if they can start fast and stay close, they can't add an impact player at the deadline. On the bright side, they're apparently five deep at catcher, so there's that.

Prediction: Fourth place. The Mets actually have enough talent to be better than this, but there's also a lot of risk here. If the Mets start slow and get hurt again, this could turn into a total disaster.

Washington Nationals
This is the fun part about baseball. Are the Nationals an atrocious team? Of course they are. Will they spend the season getting pounded by the rest of the NL? Hell yes. We know this because, well, this is what always happens to the Nationals, and it was happening to the Expos for years before that. Having said all that, take a look at the Nationals' roster, especially the line-up. Tell me I couldn't talk you into 85 wins for this team. I bet I could.

Off-season: Some interesting pick-ups for Washington. Jason Marquis, Pudge, Brian Bruney, Adam Kennedy, Matt Capps. The Nationals added veterans in a way that suggests they think they can contend. This team was terrible last year, so you'd have to think any set of off-season moves would have made them better, but I'm genuinely intrigued here.

Line-up: This is the part I really like about this team. Even if you assume that Elijah Dukes is too crazy to play a full season, which he almost certainly is, you still have Zimmerman, Dunn, the very underrated Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan (you heard me, Morgan hit .351 last year after he got traded to Washington). I honestly like this line-up as much as any line-up in the division other than Philadelphia. This team can score runs.

Pitching: Unfortunately, here's where disaster strikes for the Nats. They made some upgrades here, this is the first time in a while Washington has an opening day starter I've heard of, so that's a good start. Still, this team will give up a ton of runs. Fans sitting in the first few rows of the outfield seats should bring gloves, or helmets.

Final Thought: When are we going to see Stephen Strasburg? I'm still betting on opening day. Nothing draws fans like a must see starter going out there every five days. On top of that, Strasburg is, right now, the best pitcher in the Washington organization, at least from a pure stuff standpoint. I don't see a lot of upside in holding him back.

Prediction: The smart money still has Washington in last place. But you can definitely add some wins to last year's total and maybe, just maybe, they can get out of the basement (OK, probably not. Hey, can I get some Expos throwback uniforms this season? How hard is that?).