My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL East

Quick thought before we start. I'm tired of hearing people knock Charlie Sheen. I understand that most of us wouldn't enjoy, or even be able to survive, Charlie Sheen's life, but Charlie is enjoying the shit out of it. Why should he apologize for that? And his show sucks, so who cares anyway? On to the baseball...

Philadelphia Phillies
Opening Thought: "...and six months ago, when Doug introduced me to you guys I thought, wait a second, could it be? And now I know for sure, I just added two more guys to my wolf-pack. Four of us wolves, running around the desert in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine."

Roy Halladay has to be pretty psyched right now, right? Two years ago his prime was rotting away, perpetually in fourth place in Toronto. Now? His team practically has a bye to the world series. This literally couldn't have worked out any better for him.

Off-season: Who knew the Phillies would win the Cliff Lee sweepstakes? Even Lee had to be a little surprised when he signed with a team that didn't even really need him, to the point that it traded him...last year. I thought, for a while, maybe Philadelphia would trade one of the other pitchers they have for a big bat (say, Hamels and Howard for Pujols and Westbrook), but it looks like they're keeping everyone.

Questions: Who becomes the fifth starter for this team? Does Jimmy Rollins have anything left?

Answers: Who cares (although I actually like Kyle Kendrick over Joe Blanton) and I think so. I'd be worried about Rollins if I were a Philly fan, but he's only 32. I have to believe a healthy Rollins has at least one more good year in him.

My Favorite Thing: Ummmm, I'm gonna have to go with starting pitching. Random fun baseball fact. The 1971 Baltimore Orioles were the last team to have four 20-game winners on one staff. Just sayin'.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: This is a tough one. The Phillies struggled to score runs last year, and losing Jayson Werth won't help. Also, Brad Lidge only has two speeds, unhittable and totally awful, which makes the Philadelphia bullpen a little unpredictable. However, the bullpen also features Ryan Madson and a surprisingly effective Jose Contreras. In right field, top prospect Domonic Brown, who hit .327 in the minors last year, should be ready to replace Werth.

Closing Thought: Baseball's weird sometimes and teams that look too good to be true frequently are, but this team looks crazy on paper.

Prediction: First place, Philly fans can start buying world series tickets now.

Alright folks, that's it for the NL East, next week, we start the Americ....wait, what? You're saying there are other teams in this division? Hold on, I'll be right back...Hey! You were right.

New York Mets
Opening Thought: You heard me!

This isn't some kind of reverse jinx. I told you already, the Mets/Yankees rivalry is nonsense. MLB and ESPN just made it up to get you to watch their crappy interleague games. I'm rooting for the Mets, New York deserves two good teams.

Off-season: I would have liked to have seen the Mets get in on the Cliff Lee bidding, they desperately need another top end starter. Having said that, the Mets made a lot of little pick-ups this off-season that I think will help them. Scott Hairston is a nice player with a lot of flexibility and they added some bullpen depth. Not the splashiest off-seasons, but I think they got a little better.

Questions: Can this team tread water until Beltran and Santana get back? When will Luis Castillo's awful contract end?

Answers: Maybe and seemingly never (but actually after this season). I actually wouldn't hold my breath for getting anything useful from Santana or Beltran this year, but I think it's possible the rest of this team could contend on their own.

My Favorite Thing: I don't see why the Mets can't score runs, even without Beltran. Reyes should be healthy, they still have David Wright and Jason Bay and Ike Davis. Davis, by the way, in only 23 and should get noticeably better. I know Citi Field isn't exactly hitter-friendly, but the teams they're playing have to play there too and the Mets look to me like a team that should be able to produce enough runs to win more than they lose.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Starting pitching. Hopefully, at some point this season, Met opponents will, once again, find out that you don't mess with the Johan. Until then, this staff is a disaster with nobody that even resembles an ace. If you're sitting in the first few sections of outfield seats when the Mets visit your team, bring a glove, and maybe a helmet.

Closing Thought: Everybody's clear now on why the Twins couldn't get anything good for Santana, right? I'm not saying the Mets shouldn't have made the trade, they got an ace for what amounted to a few spare parts. But we all see why now, right? Santana was an "injury-plagued second half of his career" guy waiting to happen, and now it's happening.

Prediction: Second place and who knows. I like the Reds for the wild card, but the Mets have "nobody believed in us" written all over them.

Atlanta Braves
Opening Thought: If Atlanta continues being the worst sports city in America can we, at some point, start confiscating their teams?

Off-season: The big trade for Dan Uggla highlighted Atlanta's off-season. Uggla is 30 now, he was never a .300 hitter and last year was his first season over .260 since 2006, but, he's good for 30 home runs and he was always better on the road for Florida. I'm willing to call this a nice pick-up.

Questions: Who closes games for Atlanta? Is Jason Heyward ready to carry this offense?

Answers: You're probably looking at closer by committee in Atlanta. As for Heyward, I don't think so. Heyward is a great talent, but he's still only 21. If I'm the Braves, I'm just hoping he gets through the season healthy so I don't have to starting worrying that he's injury-prone.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching, but with one caveat. I love Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens, who just turned 25, is always good for a quality start. Add Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson and this rotation should be very good. The caveat? Lowe is 37 and can't do this forever. Hudson turns 36 this summer and isn't exactly the picture of health. More on this later.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Hasn't this always been the story in Atlanta? Quick hint for all MLB teams, never sign a reliever that once played for Joe Torre unless his name is Mariano. The Braves have two of them.

Closing Thought: I could go either way on the Braves. Something feels a little off about this team. I'm looking at Lowe and Hudson and thinking if they both start breaking down this year, could this be sort of a lost season for Atlanta? Maybe. On the other hand, if they both have one more good year left, this team could compete for a wild card.

Prediction: Third place, could be better, could be worse.

Florida Marlins
Opening Thought: "Lois, when I'm done with them, our kids will be so smart they'll be able to program their own VCR's without spilling piping hot gravy all over myself."

I feel like we're always waiting for Florida's kids to grow up. We're always one or two years away from them being really good, but we're never sure if we'll actually get there or if they'll just drop the kids off in Boston and New York before they're fully mature. Small market baseball, catch the fever!

Off-season: Dan Uggla out, Javier Vazquez in. I think Florida is banking on Vazquez being good again when he comes back to the NL, but at some point, he's just old, right?

Questions: How good is Mike Stanton? Can Hanley Ramirez carry this team to the post-season?

Answers: 22 home runs in 359 big league at-bats last year, and he's 21. So I'm going with pretty damn good. As for Hanley, I've seen no evidence that he can carry a team anywhere, except maybe a fantasy team.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Big season coming up for 27-year-old Anibal Sanchez. Write it down.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Rumors I've already read out of Florida's spring training camp about possible concerns with Josh Johnson's shoulder, or elbow, or back, or whatever. Spring training rumors about a pitcher being hurt rarely end well.

Closing Thought: Florida's offense leaves me cold. Hanley Ramirez is more of a stat monster than anything else and Mike Stanton is still probably a year or two away from being able to add a high average to his power.

Prediction: Fourth place. Another forgettable season in Miami.

Washington Nationals
Opening Thought: "Trying is the first step towards failure."

Off-season: Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche. What's going on here? Are the Nationals actually trying? My whole world is upside down, I'm starting to get a headache.

Questions: Will Livan Hernandez ever be finished? Can Adam LaRoche produce in the first half of a season for once?

Answers: Yes, stay tuned and no, probably not. Can't they just tell LaRoche it's July now?

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Werth has a year or two before his contract becomes awful and the Nationals still have Ryan Zimmerman and Nyjer Morgan. When Adam LaRoche shows up for the second half, this team should score.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. We'll see Stephen Strasburg in 2012 and until then, yuck.

Closing Thought: It'll be pretty sad if Washington actually tries once and still finishes last. To be honest, I kind of hope I'm wrong about this.

Prediction: Fifth place. Honestly, I'm not really sold on anyone is this division after Philadelphia. If Washington and the Mets finished in opposite positions from where I have them, it wouldn't shock me. Still, I can't believe the Nationals as contenders until I see it.

The New Center

I have a theory. Now, I watch Glenn Beck at least a couple of times a week. Glenn has a lot of theories, I think the last one involved Woodrow Wilson secretly traveling back in time to start the slave trade. My theory isn't a Beck-style, category five crazy theory. I'm a bit more of a moderate, and that's sort of my point, this is a theory about moderation.

I've been trying my best to get engaged with the 2010 midterm elections, my efforts are meeting with limited success. The Democrats are undisciplined, somewhat cowardly and really failing to zero in on a message. Ya know, they're acting like Democrats. I can't imagine a way a party could more thoroughly squander a huge majority, but I'm sure the Democrats can.

Meanwhile, the Republican party seems to have been taken over by crazy people. Their nominee in Nevada, Sharron Angle, can generously be described as totally insane. Of course, she still has a decent chance of winning because she's running against Harry Reid's politically dynamic combination of unspeakably boring and unimaginably ineffective. Should be a real barn burner out there.

The Republicans in my current (but, thankfully, soon to be former) state have nominated Linda McMahon. Seriously, the wrestling lady. I swear I'm not joking. But she also still has a decent chance because she's got about a trillion dollars and she's running against a Democrat who kept telling people he served in Vietnam even though he didn't.

I've also noticed the Florida Senate race. Florida has the rare three-way race going. Independent and former Republican Charlie Crist vs. tea party Republican and former hair model Marco Rubio vs. a couple of Democrats who can't even poll at 20% in a pretty 50/50 state. Crist leads the real clear politics average of polls no matter which Democrat you plug in. This brings us to my theory. I think Crist is the leading edge of a big wave of successful independent candidates.

Look at where we are right now. People are rightfully fed up with both parties. The imagineers at Fox News keep telling me the Republican party will win back a majority in the house and maybe the Senate in November. How many times do you think people will go back and forth like this before they realize nothing ever changes? I think Crist wins by double digits in November, partially because he won't be weighed down by the stupidity of either party. That's why I think he should change his campaign slogan to "I'm Charlie Crist, and I don't like either of these guys". I also like that slogan because it's a little punchier than Marco Rubio's "I'm Marco Rubio, and I'll say whatever Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin tell me to say".

In the past, independents struggled because they couldn't raise any real money and they didn't have enough name recognition. Next time you go vote, take a look at the candidates on your ballot after the two major parties. It's a veritable who's who of who the f*ck are these guys. People generally aren't fans of voting for people they've never heard of, or giving them money.

But Sean, you protest, Ross Perot had money and everyone knew who he was, and he still only got just under 19% in the 1992 election. I can't argue with you there. Sure, part of what Perot was known for was his trademark bat-shit insanity, but still, he was well known. So what's different now?

As usual, part of the problem is the internets. An independent candidate doesn't need the party establishment to raise big money anymore. Even major party candidates do a decent amount of fundraising on the internet. I'm not saying an independent can get even with the big parties on money, but I think they can get close enough, if people know who they are. That brings us to culprit number two.

Cable news. People are more well informed about politics now than ever before. Well, maybe I wouldn't say we're well informed, but we're certainly more informed. I live in Connecticut and know who Marco Rubio and Sharron Angle are. Do you think I would have known who they were in 1992? Probably not.

So, here are the factors:
1) People are genuinely fed up with both parties
2) Fundraising is way easier now than it was even 10 years ago
3) Name recognition in politics is almost universal at this point
4) I say an independent is about to destroy both big party candidates in a pretty visible Senate race in Florida

Over the next five/ten years, I think we'll see a wave of moderate, reasonable politicians running for office as independents, and winning. I wouldn't be surprised if the 2020 Senate looked something like 43 Republicans, 41 Democrats and 16 independents. Of course, this means Congress will do even less than it does now. Impossible, you say? That sounds like a challenge.

Further down the road, maybe this even gets us a new third party, which will inevitably become just as corrupt and ineffective as the current two parties. I said I had a theory, I didn't say it was a good thing.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL East

My original plan was to do two baseball previews, one for each league. I started thinking about how long those would get and I decided I had a better idea. So, we're doing a division a week from now until the start of the season (one week gets two divisions, so we'll find the two least interesting divisions and lump them together, I'm looking at you AL Central). We're leading off this week with the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are the undisputed king of this division. Fans of other teams in this division may want to seriously consider ignoring this season. Sure, you can compete for the wild card, but you still have to watch your team get bashed by the Phillies 19 times. And even if you survive that, make the playoffs and win your first round series, there's just another bashing waiting for you courtesy of the Phillies. Really not a lot of upside.

Off-season: The NL champs actually got slightly better over the winter. Placido Polanco and Roy Halladay are, at least, marginal upgrades over Cliff Lee and Pedro Feliz. I don't like overstating expectations for guys, but Roy Halladay in the National League? Is it possible for a pitcher to have a negative ERA? Actually, the part of the Phillies' off-season that should scare other teams the most isn't anyone they picked up. We'll get to that in a minute.

Line-Up: Even if Werth and Ibanez both take steps back this year, which is certainly possible, especially for Ibanez, this is still a very deep line-up for the NL. Great speed at the top and great power in the middle. They're lacking power at third base, but that weakness is really cancelled out by the above average power at second base. You also have to like their depth. Mayberry and Francisco could probably start for a lot of teams, one of those guys won't even be the fourth outfielder for the Phillies.

Pitching: I don't love the back end of the Phillies' rotation, I think Jamie Moyer is just about done (of course, I would have told you that five years ago, so who knows). I also think J.A. Happ takes a step back to reality this year. On the other hand, you already know about Halladay and I think Hamels is ready for a big season. They've also got some young arms that may be ready to step in and compete for that 5th starter role. The back end of the bullpen could be a problem. Brad Lidge may be the most fragile guy in sports, but look at it this way. There's no way Lidge could be anymore of a mess than he was last year, and they still got to the world series.

Final Thought: Remember what I said about the scariest part of the Phillies' off-season? Here it is. They managed to get Roy Halladay without giving up Dominic Brown or Kyle Drabek. So, if they have an injury or just struggle a bit early, and they need another bat or another arm in July, they have better top end trading chips than almost any other team.

Prediction: First place, maybe 100 wins and another world series appearance. Three years in a row is tough, but I don't see a team in the NL that can hang with Philadelphia.

Florida Marlins
It's easy to get excited about a team like Florida. Lots of brand name young talent, and young talent suggests endless possibilities. But here's some reality. This wasn't a playoff team last year, and most people thought the Marlins overachieved in 2009. I'm not saying they can't contend, especially for the wild card, but I am wondering what happens if Josh Johnson gets hurt, or Hanley Ramirez.

Off-season: It's tough being a Marlins fan in the winter. I mean, sure, it's sunny, and warm, and you had the superbowl this year and you can still go to the beach in December. But who cares about all of that? They don't sign anyone, if they make a big trade, it's usually to give away a top player. Where's the fun in that? They did sign Josh Johnson to a long term deal, so that's another young pitcher the Yankees can't have until he's not young anymore.

Line-Up: I don't hate this line-up, but I don't love it either. If Gaby Sanchez steps up and has a big year, then they could surprise me, but if he doesn't, I can't see Jorge Cantu having another 100 RBI season and Dan Uggla hit .243 last year. I don't know why anyone would throw a strike to Hanley Ramirez. And if Hanley gets hurt...this team doesn't have a big margin for error.

Pitching: I love the Marlins' starting pitching, probably even a little more than the Phillies'. Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are both aces in my book (that's Sean's Big Book of Aces, pick it up wherever imaginary books are sold), and Anibal Sanchez has ace stuff too (if he can stay healthy, which is a lot like when I said Gilbert Arenas could have a big year if he avoided doing something crazy). The bullpen is a different story. The bullpen always suffers on low budget teams, it's the last place most teams put any real money. On the plus side, Hayden Penn and Dan Meyer were both serious prospects at one point, so they've got some potential back there, but I'm not sold on Leo Nunez. The question becomes, if this bullpen can't hold leads, how long can the starters hold up going 8 or 9 innings every start?

Final Thought: The Marlins are always interesting around the trading deadline as a dark horse candidate to pick up someone big. They always have good prospects, but they're rarely willing to take on salary. Let's say Florida is five games back in late July. Could you see Manny Ramirez spending two months in Miami and leading them on an improbable playoff run? Me too.

Prediction: Second place. I think a lot of people will pick the Marlins for the wild card, not me. I think they're a bat short and they've got too many injury risks in the rotation.

Atlanta Braves
I'm not a big Bobby Cox guy. A homeless guy from outside Fulton County Stadium could have led Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz to 5 or 6 division titles in the 90's. I'm not saying he's a bad manager, I'm just saying he's not that much better than anyone else.

Off-season: The Braves added Troy Glaus, Melky Cabrera, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. If you're thinking "I don't really see any good ideas in there", you're not alone. Put me down for June 1st in the Billy Wagner season ending surgery pool, and he might be the best addition out of those four.

Line-Up: I like Nate McLouth, and I like Yunel Escobar, and that's pretty much it. "What about Brian McCann?", you ask. Well, Brian's OPS was .834 last year. Is that really what you want from the guy who's supposed to be your best hitter? Probably not. The Braves can score some runs, but not enough.

Pitching: This is a completely different team if Tim Hudson wins 20 games. Assuming that doesn't happen, I don't mind the Braves' pitching, but it doesn't blow me away. Derek Lowe can dominate the league for two months if he gets on a roll, but he can also be awful for a month. That's not great from your ace. Jair Jurrjens pitched to a 2.60 ERA last year, but only averaged just over 6 innings a start and only won 14 games with that ERA. There's a guy who can win 20 with a strong bullpen, but the Braves don't have one. Also, Tommy Hanson will be a stud someday, but I'm not wild about him this year.

Final Thought: I'm wondering if Lowe and/or a rejuvenated Hudson become available around the trading deadline. That could be the most interesting thing the Braves do all year.

Prediction: Text book mediocre team, 81-81, third place. It's ridiculous to pick exact records in baseball, but this makes so much sense for Atlanta. It'll be like they weren't even there.

New York Mets
I really don't know what I'd do if I were a Mets fan. If Mets fans were children, and the Mets were their parents, the state would have taken the children away by now. Somebody should kill Mr. Met so he can roll over in his grave.

Off-season: Jason Bay was a solid start, and then...well...Gary Matthews Jr., Rod Barajas, Josh Fogg, etc. Kelvim Escobar is already like one step away from being out for the year. I don't know what happened to Omar Minaya, but we need to keep it away from the Bronx.

Line-up: With all the bad things I have to say about the Mets, I actually don't mind their line-up. If everyone else is still standing when Beltran gets back, this team should actually score some runs. I wish they had a lefty other than Murphy, but Beltran's switch hitting will help with that too. Mets fans should keep an eye out for Ike Davis. No one screws up prospects quite as efficiently as the Mets, but this guy might be can't miss. If Murphy struggles, and I think he will, you might see Davis sooner than later.

Pitching: Here's the thing about the Mets' pitching. I like everyone they have individually, but I hate them all on the same team. I'm not sold on Johan Santana's long term health. Every time I see John Maine pitch I really like his stuff, but he can't get through a season healthy. Oliver Perez is talented, but he also has health concerns on top of conditioning problems and general sanity issues. And the bullpen is just a mess. I don't have a problem with K-Rod, but how do they plan to get to him?

Final Thought: One of the Mets' biggest problems in the total lack of organizational depth. Even if they had been willing to pay him, they couldn't get in on the Halladay sweepstakes because they didn't really have anything Toronto wanted. They don't really have much anybody wants. So even if they can start fast and stay close, they can't add an impact player at the deadline. On the bright side, they're apparently five deep at catcher, so there's that.

Prediction: Fourth place. The Mets actually have enough talent to be better than this, but there's also a lot of risk here. If the Mets start slow and get hurt again, this could turn into a total disaster.

Washington Nationals
This is the fun part about baseball. Are the Nationals an atrocious team? Of course they are. Will they spend the season getting pounded by the rest of the NL? Hell yes. We know this because, well, this is what always happens to the Nationals, and it was happening to the Expos for years before that. Having said all that, take a look at the Nationals' roster, especially the line-up. Tell me I couldn't talk you into 85 wins for this team. I bet I could.

Off-season: Some interesting pick-ups for Washington. Jason Marquis, Pudge, Brian Bruney, Adam Kennedy, Matt Capps. The Nationals added veterans in a way that suggests they think they can contend. This team was terrible last year, so you'd have to think any set of off-season moves would have made them better, but I'm genuinely intrigued here.

Line-up: This is the part I really like about this team. Even if you assume that Elijah Dukes is too crazy to play a full season, which he almost certainly is, you still have Zimmerman, Dunn, the very underrated Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan (you heard me, Morgan hit .351 last year after he got traded to Washington). I honestly like this line-up as much as any line-up in the division other than Philadelphia. This team can score runs.

Pitching: Unfortunately, here's where disaster strikes for the Nats. They made some upgrades here, this is the first time in a while Washington has an opening day starter I've heard of, so that's a good start. Still, this team will give up a ton of runs. Fans sitting in the first few rows of the outfield seats should bring gloves, or helmets.

Final Thought: When are we going to see Stephen Strasburg? I'm still betting on opening day. Nothing draws fans like a must see starter going out there every five days. On top of that, Strasburg is, right now, the best pitcher in the Washington organization, at least from a pure stuff standpoint. I don't see a lot of upside in holding him back.

Prediction: The smart money still has Washington in last place. But you can definitely add some wins to last year's total and maybe, just maybe, they can get out of the basement (OK, probably not. Hey, can I get some Expos throwback uniforms this season? How hard is that?).