I Have a Question for the NFL

Actually, I have a lot of questions for the NFL.  Like why are there teams in Jacksonville and Tennessee but no team in Los Angeles?  Or why do two New York teams play in New Jersey?  Or why haven't they castrated the Roethlisbozo yet?  Come to think of it, I don't know that they haven't done that last one.

So many questions, but the one that's been bothering me lately is this one.  Why does the NFL bother advertising?  Did you know football is back?  I do, because the TV told me so, over and over again.  It must be costing them millions in advertising.  Why bother?

Does the NFL think there are sports fans all over America who just haven't heard about this whole pro football thing?  Do they think that if they just get the word out, maybe one day their little league will be popular?  Or does the NFL think we forgot which day of the week football happens?  There has to be something better they can do with that money, like paying Brett Favre to go away forever. 
This "football is back" ad campaign makes it seem like the lock-out lasted for three years.  Nobody cares about the lock-out, we didn't miss anything except the stupid hall of fame game.  Stop trying to convince me to watch football.  Trust me, I'm already there.  Just leave me alone and I'll see you on Sunday.

My pre-season picks were pretty solid last year.  I nailed the NFC and Superbowl champion Packers.  As for the AFC, I didn't even have Pittsburgh in the playoffs, but I'm taking a mulligan on that one.  I knew the Steelers would be good, I just refused to pick the Bozo to win anything, a tradition I'll be continuing this year...

AFC playoff teams
1) New England
2) San Diego
3) Baltimore
4) Houston
5) New York
6) Cleveland

AFC playoff results
Baltimore over Cleveland (huge!)
New York over Houston
San Diego over Baltimore (everyone will pick Baltimore here)
New York over New England (again)
San Diego over New York

A Thought for Every AFC Team
Denver: There's no amount of money I wouldn't be willing to pay the Denver Broncos if they let me go the whole season without hearing about Tim Tebow. 

San Diego: I like the Chargers a lot this year.  If Bob Sanders can stay healthy, this could finally be their year.  That sounds like a big if, but Indianapolis always seems to be plagued with injuries, maybe it wasn't Bob's fault.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh: Why Cleveland?  I'm all in on Colt McCoy and all out on the Steelers.  Aside from hating the Bozo, Rashard Mendenhall had something like 700 touches last year.  He may disintegrate on the field at some point this season.

Indianapolis: Any season that starts with Kerry Collins is pretty much guaranteed to end in disappointment.

Buffalo: "Ladies and Gentleman.  With the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills select Andrew Luck, quarterback from Stanford University"

Kansas City: Opposing defenses should be terrified of Jamaal Charles, but they should feel exactly the opposite about Matt Cassel.

Miami: I think the Heat can be better in their second season togeth...what?  Dolphins? There's still a football team in Miami?

Cincinnati: It's so nice to have the Bengals back.  It's like a warm security blanket of football atrocity.

Houston: No defense + lots of offensive weapons surrounding a somewhat inconsistent quarterback = always fun to watch.  They have to make the playoffs one of these years, right?

Oakland: At least they have Nnamdi...oh wait...crap!

New England: It's hard to pick against New England, but I'm at the point where I need to see them win a playoff game again before I can get back on board. 

Tennessee: As much as Chris Johnson is the man, I'm not counting on a guy who 1) skipped all of training camp and 2) is smaller than I am to carry an otherwise forgettable team to the playoffs.

Baltimore: I really don't like watching the Ravens.  I got bored just trying to think of something to write here.

Jacksonville: Los Angeles is really nice this time of year...or, for that matter, any time of year.

New York: I would also pay almost any amount of money to anyone who could get Rex Ryan to shut up for two straight weeks.  Now let's go eat a goddamn snack!

NFC playoff teams
1) Green Bay
2) Atlanta
3) Philadelphia
4) San Francisco
5) New Orleans
6) Detroit

NFC playoff results
Detroit over Philly (not betting on Vick getting to the end of the season in one piece)
New Orleans over San Francisco
Green Bay over Detroit
Atlanta over New Orleans (really good game)
Green Bay over Atlanta (really REALLY good game, but Atlanta can't win in Green Bay in January)

A Thought for Every NFC Team
Detroit: I'm picking the Lions because I like them, but also because I'm afraid Ndamukong Suh is capable of finding everyone in America who didn't pick the Lions to make the playoffs and beating them all to death.

Green Bay: Here's why I like the Packers to repeat in the NFC.  Last year they won the superbowl, but they did it as a 6 seed, and they did it without some key players.  So now you have a defending champ that didn't have a dominant season, didn't get a home playoff game and has some players returning who didn't participate in the championship run.  I'm more willing to bet on a dominant 14-2 season from Green Bay than a complacent 8-8.

Washington: I'm not one of those people who says Redskins is an offensive name.  I should probably clarify that.  I'm not saying it isn't offensive, it probably is, I just don't care.  On a related note, if you have to watch Washington play this season, chances are you'll be pretty offended.

Tampa Bay: Much like the city of Tampa Bay itself, The Bucs' defense doesn't really exist.

St. Louis: I don't know why everyone likes the Rams so much.  They only won 7 games last year, and look at who they beat.  Calm down everybody.

New York: Something about the Giants this year just screams 8-8.

New Orleans: My fantasy team is counting on a breakout season from Jimmy Graham.  So...get on that Drew Brees.

Chicago: No team did more with less last year than Chicago.  This year, I predict no team will do less with less.

Philadelphia: I think people are forgetting that Philadelphia's defense was awful last year.  And even though Nnamdi is great, the Raiders were awful pretty much the whole time he was there. I guess I'm saying I'm not 100% sold on Philly.

Atlanta: I almost picked Atlanta to win the NFC.  I think the South is too tough for them to get a 1 seed and home field in the playoffs, and that's the only reason I think they lose in the championship game. 

Minnesota: I think Minnesota's success this season will mostly depend on whether or not the Favre exorcism really worked. 

Dallas: Last year I picked Dallas to win the East, and they started the season 1-7.  As a great Texan once said, "Fool me once, shame on...shame on you.  Fool me...you can't get fooled again."

Arizona: A few too many eggs in the Kevin Kolb basket for my liking.  Look what happened to Donovan McNabb after he left Philly.  I'm not saying they're the same quarterback, I'm just saying it may be easier to put up good numbers when you're throwing the ball 97% of the time and your running backs are basically props.

Carolina: Cam Newton still has to convince me that he isn't just a more likable JaMarcus Russell.

Seattle: Boooooooooooo!!! (I've actually always liked Tarvaris Jackson, but still)

San Francisco: Speaking of getting fooled again.  Listen, they play in an awful division that I think might somehow be even worse this year, Patrick Willis is still a monster and...well that's all I can think of.  But much like the Texans, this has to happen one of these years, right?

Superbowl Pick
In one of the most fun superbowls I'll ever see, Chargers 34, Packers 28.

One Super Prediction

Before I get to what happens next Sunday, here are some things I learned from the championship games.

The Jets offense is a catastrophe. Actually, I didn't learn that, it's been that way as long as I can remember. Good plays always look like a coincidence, they're constantly disorganized, I always know what they're running next. They need to fire (and possibly incarcerate) everyone who has ever coached offense for that team and start from scratch.

I'm so tired of hearing about the Roethlisbozo. If the Steeler defense somehow won them a game in which The Bozo went 1 for 20 for 12 yards with 5 interceptions, the sports media would spend the next week telling me how that one completion came at the perfect time and how The Bozo always knows when to step up. I thought Tebow was the new Favre, maybe I was wrong.

The internet has officially ruined sports media too. Jay Cutler's knee injury, which basically became the sports equivalent of Watergate for a day and a half, proved that sports journalism has become the same as every other kind of journalism - just tell everyone what famous people are tweeting and let the magic happen.

Alright, let's get on with it. As usual, for someone who watched something like 200 hours of football this season, I seem to have learned very little. For gambling purposes, anything you read here should be quickly forgotten.

First Impression:
My very first thought for a pick was this. If the Bozo can manage to not assault anyone between now and the superbowl, than I like the Steelers. If he's in custody by the time next Sunday rolls around, I like Green Bay. So really, my first instinct was, it's a toss up.

Offenses - Passing Game:
Clear advantage to Green Bay. Better QB, better wide-outs, better protection. The Bozo can probably hit one deep ball to Mike Wallace at some point, but Rodgers can hit one to Greg Jennings and another to James Jones. Rodgers is also more accurate and less prone to mistakes, while The Bozo is less accurate and more prone to felonies.

Offenses - Running Game:
The Packers can't run the ball at all, which is handy because you can't run against Pittsburgh anyway. I actually think they can turn this weakness into a strength, because they know they can't run and they won't spend the first half banging their heads against the wall trying, like, say, a certain team from New Jersey recently did. Pittsburgh has a clear running advantage, but with their O-line pretty banged up, I'm not sure how much they can use it.

Defenses:
I have a feeling we're going to spend the next week hearing about how this game is about the Green Bay offense vs. the Pittsburgh defense. You wanna know a secret? The Green Bay defense is just as good as Pittsburgh's. The Packers only gave up 8 more points this season than Pittsburgh did, they get great pressure, they force turnovers and they're generally difficult to play against.

On the other hand, I'm not sure the Steeler D is quite as dominant as people want them to be. Bad first half against Baltimore, bad second half against the Jets, destroyed by New England earlier in the season. When I look at their schedule, I'm not blown away by who they really held down. Holding teams like Oakland and Carolina to 3 points doesn't really knock my socks off.

I'm calling the defensive battle a draw.

Quarterback Ability to (allegedly) Sexually Assault People:
Clear advantage to Pittsburgh here. Aaron Rodgers has shown no aptitude in this area. This might turn out to be useful. During the game, The Bozo will try to throw touchdowns on the Green Bay defense, and they'll say "no, no, don't throw touchdowns on us", and they'll try to stop him, but he'll keep trying anyway. After the game, he'll say they secretly wanted him to throw touchdowns on him.

Prediction:
I'm actually not sure this game will be that close. Maybe it's just wishful thinking and how much I dislike The Bozo. Maybe I spent too much time watching the Packers this season because they had my fantasy D and top WR. Whatever the reasons, Green Bay just kind of looks like a better team to me. Plus, I think playing inside really favors the Packers, I'm not sure I'd like them so much if there wasn't a roof on this game.

Packers 30, Steelers 13.

Playoff Picks and Random Comments

Before I start with my NFL playoff picks and some other random NFL comments, I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate the baseball writers on putting Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame. It only took them 2 and 14 tries respectively. If you want my extended thoughts on Alomar's case, scroll a few paragraphs down into this thing I wrote right around this time last year:
http://somethingclever13.blogspot.com/2010/01/hot-stove-reloaded.html

OK, so, first a disclaimer. I couldn't be worse at picking football games. I don't know why. This season, I had the redzone network (awesome, by the way. The best TV invention since color. I was so disappointed I couldn't get Direct TV and Sunday ticket in my apartment building, but redzone is like 100 times better, it does the channel flipping for you), so I'm hoping that makes me better informed this time around, but I wouldn't bet on it. Seriously, if anyone reading this is thinking about considering my picks when they bet on the games, you've been warned.

New Orleans vs. Seattle
Prediction: Saints 91, Seahawks 3
OK, OK...91 might be a little high, but I'm hearing people on TV and the radio all week talking about how Seattle has nothing to lose, how they're so tough at home, how this game will be closer than you think. Really? In two home games against playoff teams this year, Seattle got hammered by a combined score of 76-42, and that doesn't even count the 41-7 home loss to the Giants (that's right, and the Giants are watching from home this weekend).

The five home wins? Arizona, Carolina, San Francisco, St. Louis and San Diego (week three, and we all know San Diego doesn't start trying until at least week five). Not exactly murderer's row. I'll take the Saints, and if I did bet on football, you couldn't set the line high enough to keep me away.

Speaking of the NFC West, how many times in one season can I tune into the same NFL team, look at the QB and think "who the f*ck is that guy?" Answer, courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals: Three, and I'm not even counting Derek Anderson. This whole division was a mess. The fact that Seattle gets a home game is a catastrophe. I heard someone on the radio joke that Pete Carroll's Seahawks couldn't win the Rose Bowl this year. I'm not sure they could win the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Ravens 24
Baltimore's defense ain't what it used to be, and unlike Seattle, Kansas City really is tough at home. Their only home loss was last week's inexplicable disaster against Oakland. Either you believe that was a fluke, in which case KC wins this game close, or you believe last week was a sign of things to come, in which case Baltimore wins by 40. I'll take the Chiefs.

Speaking of the AFC West, the legend of Saint Tebow is growing exponentially. Much like god, Christians believe in Tim Tebow's talent even though nobody can actually see it (What?! Don't make that face at me! This isn't one of those times when I say god isn't real, I'm just saying you can't see him, that's what the whole faith thing is all about).

And speaking of the AFC North, can I be the one millionth person to make a joke about how you can't build your team around two aging wide-outs with reality TV shows? Can I be the two millionth person to realize Carson Palmer is completely finished? I just read a story on ESPN.com about how Marvin Lewis had demands the Bengals needed to meet if they wanted him to stay. Seriously? What was his pitch? Just give him five more years and he'll get them to the brink of mediocrity?

Read the above paragraph and smile, because for a while it looked like the Bengals might really be going somewhere, but now I feel confident in saying, the Bengals are back, baby! It really wouldn't be December without the chance to watch the Bengals pathetically limp toward the end of another disappointing season.

Indianapolis vs. New York
Prediction: Jets 31, Colts 23
I don't trust the Jets, and their defense isn't as good as it's supposed to be. Every time a team gets into 3rd and long against the Jets, the commentators tell me how the Jets are the one team you don't want to be in 3rd and long against. Then they blitz 7 guys and give up the first down. Having said that, I really don't like the Colts, and there's just something fishy about Indy this season. They've never looked right.

Speaking of the AFC South, is it just me, or is Jeff Fisher the most overrated coach in any sport? 6 winning seasons out of 16, one superbowl appearance, no championships. What am I missing? He already ruined Vince Young, please fire him before he squanders Chris Johnson's prime.

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 41, Eagles 31
This was the toughest one. The truth is, I have no idea what Michael Vick is going to do, and neither does anyone else. Could he win this game by himself? You bet your ass he could. But Aaron Rodgers is pretty good too, and while the Green Bay defense should be good enough to slow Vick down a little, I don't see how the Eagles slow Rodgers down.

Speaking of the NFC East and the Eagles, I have no desire to inhabit a world in which Rex Grossman is a better QB than Donovan McNabb, but here we are. I imagine Rex is as surprised as the rest of us. If you're Mike Shanahan, how fast would you take a do-over on taking this job? It's going to be a long however-many years it takes Mike Shanahan to get himself fired in Washington.

And speaking of Pennsylvania football, how often do you think Roger Goodell wakes up in a cold sweat from a nightmare about a Steelers vs. Eagles superbowl? Two weeks of press conferences and stories featuring Michael "big bow wow" Vick and Ben "no means maybe" Roethlisbozo. At least Vick spent some time in jail, but I still understand if some animal rights groups want to come to superbowl week and yell stuff at him. I just hope some people will come yell at the Bozo too.

Maybe if I get a couple of these right I'll do more picks next week, but for now, I still like Green Bay to get to the superbowl if they get past Vick, because I don't trust the Falcons or the Bears. In the AFC, I'm giving up on the Ravens, I can't see a way to pick against New England right now. In fact, I had the Packers winning the whole thing when I made my pre-season picks, but I think I like the Pats now, which probably means they'll find a way to lose to the Jets next week.

Pessimism

Some people are optimists. They see the glass as half-full. They always look at the bright side. Even more people at least try to be optimists. Not me. No matter how much I like something, I can always see the downside. I'm like the opposite of a motivational speaker. I wonder if there's a market for that. Someone to come in and talk to your employees when they're just a little too happy, a little too satisfied. I could be that guy.

Anyway, I bring this up because one of the best days in America's year is coming up. Football's back! We've been waiting for Sunday since February and I'm tired of spending my Sundays watching stock cars drive around in endless circles. I can't wait. But that's Sunday. Today, I'm using my talent for pessimism to point out all the things I hate about this thing I love.

I hate that football starts on a Thursday. Just like baseball starting at night or the WNBA starting ever, football starting on a Thursday makes no sense. Football is for Sundays and Monday night and that's it. If Pierre Thomas wasn't on my fantasy team, I'd boycott tonight's game altogether. And speaking of tonight's game...

I hate Brett Favre. I just want to run up to him and punch him in the stomach. That goes for Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow too. I wish all three of them would retire and get a TV show together that I could never watch. I'm feeling a cop drama. Manning as the by-the-book Sergeant, Favre as the rule-breaking, bad-boy detective who never retires so eventually someone has to shoot him and Tebow as the cocky rookie. This could work. Speaking of Peyton Manning...

I hate the Colts. I'm not 100% sure why. They're just so smug and well-run and annoying. And then they quit on the perfect season last year (and the football gods punished them thoroughly). Maybe it's Manning's fault, I stopped hating the Packers after Favre left.

I hate the Jets' offense. This pre-dates Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan, it even goes back to previous offensive coordinators. I feel like the Jets' offense has been terrible my whole life. It's like nobody told them the goal is to go forward. Also, in a more recent development, Braylon Edwards can't catch. Somebody on the Jets' coaching staff should probably try to work on that.

I hate that where I live dictates what NFL games I see. This never bothered me in other sports. I had Yankee games my whole life in New York, and who wants non-Yankee baseball anyway. Non-Yankee baseball is like ordering apple pie, only when your pie comes, instead of apples inside, it's the Kansas City Royals. But the regional market thing doesn't work for football in New York for. I've spent my whole life watching awful Jets games and horrible NFC east football. Do you remember when the Giants played the Cardinals twice a year? Unfortunately, I do.

I hate the whole NFL money situation. The non-guaranteed contracts, the hold-outs, the crappy collective bargaining agreement. First of all, a non-guaranteed contract isn't really a contract, is it? They should call them non-binding resolutions like Congress does. Also, what's with the hold-outs? Darrelle Revis held the entire city of New York and everyone at ESPN hostage for like six weeks because he was only supposed to make 1 million dollars this year. I know he's worth more than that, but is only getting paid 1 million dollars really a good enough reason to just stop going to work? (seriously, is it? Because I'd love to not get up for work tomorrow)

Finally, I hate that no one knows what's going on in the NFL from week to week. Sometime this season, I'll start a running back on my fantasy team that everyone says will have a big week, but he'll wind up with 4 carries for -3 yards. Everybody's superbowl pick will probably go 6-10. I know, that's what we love about it too, unpredictability and all. So, with absolutely no confidence, here are my picks for the season.

NFC PLAYOFFS
1: Dallas
2: Green Bay
3: New Orleans
4: San Francisco
5: Atlanta
6: Philadelphia

New Orleans over Philly
San Francisco over Atlanta
Green Bay over New Orleans (but only if this game happens in Green Bay like I'm predicting)
San Francisco over Dallas (big upset, Dallas chokes away a chance to play a home superbowl, Wade Phillips is fired and possibly executed by Jerry Jones immediately following the game)
Green Bay over San Francisco

Random NFC Thoughts
If I owned a sports team, I'd immediately hire Mike Singletary to coach it. It wouldn't even have to be a football team.
It'll be a big day for Philly fans when Kolb takes them to the playoffs while McNabb watches from home. Unfortunately, Andy Reid will still throw the ball approximately 103% of the time and they'll lose eventually.
No playoffs for the Vikings. This Favre thing has to end sometime, and it'll only end when his team has a bad enough season that no one could possibly want him the next season. Fingers crossed for this year everyone.

AFC PLAYOFFS
1: Indianapolis (Boooooooooooo)
2: Baltimore
3: New England
4: Oakland (you heard me!)
5: New York
6: Houston

New England over Houston
New York over Oakland (blowout, total destruction)
New York over Indy (revenge!)
Baltimore over New England (not revenge!)
Baltimore over New York (The phrase Rex bowl or Ryan bowl will be used around 1 million times)

Superbowl: Green Bay over Baltimore

Random AFC Thoughts
I thought people were crazy picking Baltimore until I actually looked at the AFC. The Jets can't score, the Pats can't defend and the Colts always choke eventually unless Rex Grossman is involved.
Some people like the Bengals, and they could go 11-5. They could also go 5-8 and have the entire team spend the last three weeks of the season in prison. I'm staying away.
I think Chris Johnson has another 2000 yard season in him. Speaking of the Titans, I usually hate guys who get labeled as "guys who just win", but I'm kind of buying it with Vince Young. If one of my AFC picks misses, I think the Titans take their spot.
No Steelers. I won't pick the Roethlisbozo. I hope they go 0-16.