Playoff Picks and Random Comments

Before I start with my NFL playoff picks and some other random NFL comments, I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate the baseball writers on putting Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame. It only took them 2 and 14 tries respectively. If you want my extended thoughts on Alomar's case, scroll a few paragraphs down into this thing I wrote right around this time last year:
http://somethingclever13.blogspot.com/2010/01/hot-stove-reloaded.html

OK, so, first a disclaimer. I couldn't be worse at picking football games. I don't know why. This season, I had the redzone network (awesome, by the way. The best TV invention since color. I was so disappointed I couldn't get Direct TV and Sunday ticket in my apartment building, but redzone is like 100 times better, it does the channel flipping for you), so I'm hoping that makes me better informed this time around, but I wouldn't bet on it. Seriously, if anyone reading this is thinking about considering my picks when they bet on the games, you've been warned.

New Orleans vs. Seattle
Prediction: Saints 91, Seahawks 3
OK, OK...91 might be a little high, but I'm hearing people on TV and the radio all week talking about how Seattle has nothing to lose, how they're so tough at home, how this game will be closer than you think. Really? In two home games against playoff teams this year, Seattle got hammered by a combined score of 76-42, and that doesn't even count the 41-7 home loss to the Giants (that's right, and the Giants are watching from home this weekend).

The five home wins? Arizona, Carolina, San Francisco, St. Louis and San Diego (week three, and we all know San Diego doesn't start trying until at least week five). Not exactly murderer's row. I'll take the Saints, and if I did bet on football, you couldn't set the line high enough to keep me away.

Speaking of the NFC West, how many times in one season can I tune into the same NFL team, look at the QB and think "who the f*ck is that guy?" Answer, courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals: Three, and I'm not even counting Derek Anderson. This whole division was a mess. The fact that Seattle gets a home game is a catastrophe. I heard someone on the radio joke that Pete Carroll's Seahawks couldn't win the Rose Bowl this year. I'm not sure they could win the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Ravens 24
Baltimore's defense ain't what it used to be, and unlike Seattle, Kansas City really is tough at home. Their only home loss was last week's inexplicable disaster against Oakland. Either you believe that was a fluke, in which case KC wins this game close, or you believe last week was a sign of things to come, in which case Baltimore wins by 40. I'll take the Chiefs.

Speaking of the AFC West, the legend of Saint Tebow is growing exponentially. Much like god, Christians believe in Tim Tebow's talent even though nobody can actually see it (What?! Don't make that face at me! This isn't one of those times when I say god isn't real, I'm just saying you can't see him, that's what the whole faith thing is all about).

And speaking of the AFC North, can I be the one millionth person to make a joke about how you can't build your team around two aging wide-outs with reality TV shows? Can I be the two millionth person to realize Carson Palmer is completely finished? I just read a story on ESPN.com about how Marvin Lewis had demands the Bengals needed to meet if they wanted him to stay. Seriously? What was his pitch? Just give him five more years and he'll get them to the brink of mediocrity?

Read the above paragraph and smile, because for a while it looked like the Bengals might really be going somewhere, but now I feel confident in saying, the Bengals are back, baby! It really wouldn't be December without the chance to watch the Bengals pathetically limp toward the end of another disappointing season.

Indianapolis vs. New York
Prediction: Jets 31, Colts 23
I don't trust the Jets, and their defense isn't as good as it's supposed to be. Every time a team gets into 3rd and long against the Jets, the commentators tell me how the Jets are the one team you don't want to be in 3rd and long against. Then they blitz 7 guys and give up the first down. Having said that, I really don't like the Colts, and there's just something fishy about Indy this season. They've never looked right.

Speaking of the AFC South, is it just me, or is Jeff Fisher the most overrated coach in any sport? 6 winning seasons out of 16, one superbowl appearance, no championships. What am I missing? He already ruined Vince Young, please fire him before he squanders Chris Johnson's prime.

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 41, Eagles 31
This was the toughest one. The truth is, I have no idea what Michael Vick is going to do, and neither does anyone else. Could he win this game by himself? You bet your ass he could. But Aaron Rodgers is pretty good too, and while the Green Bay defense should be good enough to slow Vick down a little, I don't see how the Eagles slow Rodgers down.

Speaking of the NFC East and the Eagles, I have no desire to inhabit a world in which Rex Grossman is a better QB than Donovan McNabb, but here we are. I imagine Rex is as surprised as the rest of us. If you're Mike Shanahan, how fast would you take a do-over on taking this job? It's going to be a long however-many years it takes Mike Shanahan to get himself fired in Washington.

And speaking of Pennsylvania football, how often do you think Roger Goodell wakes up in a cold sweat from a nightmare about a Steelers vs. Eagles superbowl? Two weeks of press conferences and stories featuring Michael "big bow wow" Vick and Ben "no means maybe" Roethlisbozo. At least Vick spent some time in jail, but I still understand if some animal rights groups want to come to superbowl week and yell stuff at him. I just hope some people will come yell at the Bozo too.

Maybe if I get a couple of these right I'll do more picks next week, but for now, I still like Green Bay to get to the superbowl if they get past Vick, because I don't trust the Falcons or the Bears. In the AFC, I'm giving up on the Ravens, I can't see a way to pick against New England right now. In fact, I had the Packers winning the whole thing when I made my pre-season picks, but I think I like the Pats now, which probably means they'll find a way to lose to the Jets next week.

Pessimism

Some people are optimists. They see the glass as half-full. They always look at the bright side. Even more people at least try to be optimists. Not me. No matter how much I like something, I can always see the downside. I'm like the opposite of a motivational speaker. I wonder if there's a market for that. Someone to come in and talk to your employees when they're just a little too happy, a little too satisfied. I could be that guy.

Anyway, I bring this up because one of the best days in America's year is coming up. Football's back! We've been waiting for Sunday since February and I'm tired of spending my Sundays watching stock cars drive around in endless circles. I can't wait. But that's Sunday. Today, I'm using my talent for pessimism to point out all the things I hate about this thing I love.

I hate that football starts on a Thursday. Just like baseball starting at night or the WNBA starting ever, football starting on a Thursday makes no sense. Football is for Sundays and Monday night and that's it. If Pierre Thomas wasn't on my fantasy team, I'd boycott tonight's game altogether. And speaking of tonight's game...

I hate Brett Favre. I just want to run up to him and punch him in the stomach. That goes for Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow too. I wish all three of them would retire and get a TV show together that I could never watch. I'm feeling a cop drama. Manning as the by-the-book Sergeant, Favre as the rule-breaking, bad-boy detective who never retires so eventually someone has to shoot him and Tebow as the cocky rookie. This could work. Speaking of Peyton Manning...

I hate the Colts. I'm not 100% sure why. They're just so smug and well-run and annoying. And then they quit on the perfect season last year (and the football gods punished them thoroughly). Maybe it's Manning's fault, I stopped hating the Packers after Favre left.

I hate the Jets' offense. This pre-dates Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan, it even goes back to previous offensive coordinators. I feel like the Jets' offense has been terrible my whole life. It's like nobody told them the goal is to go forward. Also, in a more recent development, Braylon Edwards can't catch. Somebody on the Jets' coaching staff should probably try to work on that.

I hate that where I live dictates what NFL games I see. This never bothered me in other sports. I had Yankee games my whole life in New York, and who wants non-Yankee baseball anyway. Non-Yankee baseball is like ordering apple pie, only when your pie comes, instead of apples inside, it's the Kansas City Royals. But the regional market thing doesn't work for football in New York for. I've spent my whole life watching awful Jets games and horrible NFC east football. Do you remember when the Giants played the Cardinals twice a year? Unfortunately, I do.

I hate the whole NFL money situation. The non-guaranteed contracts, the hold-outs, the crappy collective bargaining agreement. First of all, a non-guaranteed contract isn't really a contract, is it? They should call them non-binding resolutions like Congress does. Also, what's with the hold-outs? Darrelle Revis held the entire city of New York and everyone at ESPN hostage for like six weeks because he was only supposed to make 1 million dollars this year. I know he's worth more than that, but is only getting paid 1 million dollars really a good enough reason to just stop going to work? (seriously, is it? Because I'd love to not get up for work tomorrow)

Finally, I hate that no one knows what's going on in the NFL from week to week. Sometime this season, I'll start a running back on my fantasy team that everyone says will have a big week, but he'll wind up with 4 carries for -3 yards. Everybody's superbowl pick will probably go 6-10. I know, that's what we love about it too, unpredictability and all. So, with absolutely no confidence, here are my picks for the season.

NFC PLAYOFFS
1: Dallas
2: Green Bay
3: New Orleans
4: San Francisco
5: Atlanta
6: Philadelphia

New Orleans over Philly
San Francisco over Atlanta
Green Bay over New Orleans (but only if this game happens in Green Bay like I'm predicting)
San Francisco over Dallas (big upset, Dallas chokes away a chance to play a home superbowl, Wade Phillips is fired and possibly executed by Jerry Jones immediately following the game)
Green Bay over San Francisco

Random NFC Thoughts
If I owned a sports team, I'd immediately hire Mike Singletary to coach it. It wouldn't even have to be a football team.
It'll be a big day for Philly fans when Kolb takes them to the playoffs while McNabb watches from home. Unfortunately, Andy Reid will still throw the ball approximately 103% of the time and they'll lose eventually.
No playoffs for the Vikings. This Favre thing has to end sometime, and it'll only end when his team has a bad enough season that no one could possibly want him the next season. Fingers crossed for this year everyone.

AFC PLAYOFFS
1: Indianapolis (Boooooooooooo)
2: Baltimore
3: New England
4: Oakland (you heard me!)
5: New York
6: Houston

New England over Houston
New York over Oakland (blowout, total destruction)
New York over Indy (revenge!)
Baltimore over New England (not revenge!)
Baltimore over New York (The phrase Rex bowl or Ryan bowl will be used around 1 million times)

Superbowl: Green Bay over Baltimore

Random AFC Thoughts
I thought people were crazy picking Baltimore until I actually looked at the AFC. The Jets can't score, the Pats can't defend and the Colts always choke eventually unless Rex Grossman is involved.
Some people like the Bengals, and they could go 11-5. They could also go 5-8 and have the entire team spend the last three weeks of the season in prison. I'm staying away.
I think Chris Johnson has another 2000 yard season in him. Speaking of the Titans, I usually hate guys who get labeled as "guys who just win", but I'm kind of buying it with Vince Young. If one of my AFC picks misses, I think the Titans take their spot.
No Steelers. I won't pick the Roethlisbozo. I hope they go 0-16.