Recap

If you think about it, last night's debate shouldn't have been that much of a surprise.  Preparing to debate Mitt Romney is like preparing for a boxing match against a southpaw, only when you get to the match, instead of fighting a lefty, you're wrestling a bear.  George Costanza once famously said it's not a lie if you believe it.  Similarly, you can't really prepare to debate Mitt Romney if even Mitt Romney doesn't know what he'll be believing and saying on any given day.

As someone who's been paying attention this whole time, I have a hard time declaring Mitt the winner, because I know he spent much of the debate, um, getting creative with reality.  But I will say this, the strategy was brilliant.  Everyone thought Mitt was walking into a trap.  The President was going to ask Mitt to explain how he's going to pay for his $5 trillion tax cut and Mitt would have to either give an explanation people would hate or refuse to give an explanation again, which people would also hate.  There's no way anyone could have anticipated Mitt just saying "Tax cut! What tax cut?  What is this crazy man talking about?".  I may be paraphrasing. 

For the President's part, I'm not sure what he could have done.  I know people wanted him to fight back more and call Romney out on his bullshit, but how does that really go?  Do you think the President does better if he spends the whole night whining about how Romney is distorting things and lying?  I don't know.  I like condescending, arrogant, dismissive Barack Obama (honestly, he's my favorite Barack Obama), but I'm fairly confident the Obama campaign has polling that says most people hate that shit.  

There's a great West Wing episode about a Presidential debate.  The campaign team sees polling that says people will think President Bartlet is arrogant no matter what he does, so then they tell him to just go be himself and he crushes Rick Perry, er...Rob Ritchie.  That's a nice story, but that's not really how it works.  In reality, doing the thing that people expect you to do that they hate only makes more people hate you, and hate you more. 

I think the President's strategy, which he had to think of all on his own because, again, there's just no preparing for Mitt Romney, was to let Mitt punch himself out with nonsense and let the fact-checkers and the media kill him for it afterwards.  Obviously, there were a couple of flaws in the President's plan.  Number one, people don't care that much about facts.  Especially undecided voters.  They barely even know what country they live in.

Number two, trusting the media to actually do their job was a HUGE mistake.  HUUUUGGGEE!!  I hardly watched any of the post-debate coverage because I was too busy reading through my blog and pretending I care if things are spelled correctly, but the little pieces I heard were ridiculous, especially from a media that's supposed to be in the tank for Obama.  Here's what I heard from the media after the debate:

1) Mitt Romney's masterful and commanding performance.  Really?  All he did was lie and smirk.  I can do that anytime I want.  Can I be President now?

2) The President was looking down and writing a lot.  OK, I'll give the media that one.  What was he doing?  He was probably trying to figure out when Mitt would start with the zingers.  I can't blame him, I was too.

3) Mitt would cut Obamacare and PBS funding.  OK look, I know it's stupid to say you would cut PBS funding because it's such a small percentage of the budget, but I think he was just trying to make a joke.  Jim Lehrer was sitting right there.  If you've seen Mitt try to make jokes in the past, you know this is the best he's done so far.

So here's what I learned.  If you talk about Big Bird in a Presidential debate, people will talk about that shit.  They'll talk about that instead of, say, the job losses that cutting funding would create at local PBS stations that aren't funded by the Children's Television Workshop.

More importantly, I learned that if you win a Presidential debate by mostly being dishonest and misleading, the media will spend 99% of their reaction talking about the winning part and 1% of their reaction talking about the dishonest and misleading part (though I'm told MSNBC focused a little more on the lying, but that doesn't really count because they would have called Mitt a liar if his central argument was that the sky is blue...and no, I'm not saying MSNBC is the same as Fox, but they aren't neutral either).

The only important take-away is this.  If you're an undecided voter who plans to watch any of the remaining debates to decide who to vote for, just watch the debate and then turn it right off before those idiots on TV start telling you who you think won.  What happened to Keith Olbermann?  At least he was funny.

State Of The Republican Race

It's been almost a year already since I took my first shot at summing up the race for the Republican nomination http://somethingclever13.blogspot.com/2010/11/start-game.html.  I nailed some things (hello Rick Perry) and whiffed on others (oh, Haley Barbour, why have you forsaken me?).  The aftermath of the first sort of important debate is a good time to reset the field and see where we are.  I'll break the remaining candidates into four groups. 

Still Pretending:  People who can't possibly win the nomination, but are still plugging away like champs.
Still Contending:  People who I think still have a shot
Wild Cards:  People I still can't totally figure out
Front Runner:  The guy on top, for now.

But first...
Hasta La Vista Timmy
First off, a fond farewell to Tim Pawlenty.  He showed up at the Iowa debate, hammered away at Michele Bachmann for a little while, finished a distant third in the straw poll and then he bailed.  Well done, buddy.  Tim was the little engine that couldn't, because nobody wanted him to.  After the debate Thursday, I was thinking Pawlenty had a great performance and, in going after the two front runners, did exactly what he needed to do.  I just didn't know if it was enough.  Now I know.  It wasn't.

Still Pretending

Newt Gingrich

Newt easily had the worst performance in Thursday's debate.  Look, I understand conservative politicians can score points by blaming the media every time they say something stupid.  But Newt, who WORKED AT FOX, went to the FOX DEBATE Thursday and complained that the FOX ANCHORS were nailing him with gotcha questions.  Gotcha questions like, "Why did your whole staff quit?" and "Can you explain words that you said?". 

Newt then proceeded to finish 8th in a 10 man race, behind a guy who announced he wasn't participating in the straw poll two months ago and a guy who wasn't officially in the race yet when the poll started.  I'll enjoy the comedy of Newt's campaign until whenever he drops out. 

By the way, I wish Republicans would stop trying to tell me that Newt is some kind of super genius.  He's a small time political hack who can't cut it on the national stage.  End of story.

Herman Cain

Speaking of hacks.  I don't really know what to make of Herman's Cain's debate performance.  Policy wise, he's in pretty far over his head at this point.  His calling card is that old story about how if you ran a business then you know how to run a government.  Of course, that's nonsense, but politicians have been saying it for as long as I can remember and people are still falling for it.  I can see Cain doing surprisingly well in one of the early primaries, but one third place finish in Iowa doesn't get you the nomination.

Rick Santorum

The knuckle-dragging bible-thumping on social issues.  The know-nothing, war-mongering nonsense on foreign policy.  The blind loyalty to the cult of tax cuts.  Rick Santorum is everything that's wrong with the Republican party all rolled up into one ignorant package.  I do not like him.  Luckily, he isn't winning. 

By the way, for anyone who read my recap of Thursday's debate, I want to quickly re-visit one point.  When I said Rick Santorum promised to come to each state and be homophobic in person, I wasn't being hyperbolic or making that up.  Rick, if he wins the Presidency, will apparently spend the majority of his term flying around the country and fighting the evil gays face to face.  That landed him almost 10% of the straw poll votes.  Iowa must be feeling very proud today.

Ron Paul

I love Ron Paul.  If Ron Paul was an atheist, I'd quit my job to go volunteer for his campaign.  Ron did his thing in Thursday's debate.  He talked about monetary policy, which I think he only does to prove that he's smarter than the other candidates, Bachmann can't even spell monetary.  He talked about his different (and better) vision for what Republican foreign policy can be.  He talked about the Constitution, which he was doing back when the rest of the Republican party was cheering George W. Bush on as he urinated all over the Constitution.  He almost won the straw poll, finishing a very close second.  And, as usual, nobody cares.

I think my favorite thing about Congressman Paul is his clear disdain for almost everyone else in his party.  You could tell during the debate, it seems like he hates those people he was sharing the stage with almost as much as they hate Barack Obama.  When asked about Rick Perry, Paul immediately dismissed him as another establishment political hack.   Like I said, I love Ron Paul.

Still Contending

Jon Hunstman

I know, Huntsman probably isn't a real contender and may drop out before I finish typing this sentence.  I think this is me just trying to stay hopeful that maybe, just maybe, the Republicans can turn this thing around and nominate someone with a working brain.  Sadly, my hope is most likely misguided. 

What makes me say that?  Well, Huntsman just sort of blended in at the debate and then finished 10th in the straw poll, including getting less votes (69) then the "other" category (162).  Why I am still a little hopeful?  Hunstman was never going to win Iowa and everyone knew it.  He needs to focus on New Hampshire, work on his delivery (he has a really odd speaking style) and hope for the best.  He still has a good amount of money behind him.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann's debate performance was awful.  She clung to her talking points the way her husband clings to his (insert latent homosexuality joke here).  However, this one awful performance in this one very early debate is a good sign going forward.  Congresswoman Bachmann is working hard on her ability to stay on message, stick to her talking points and limit her trips to Imagination Land.  It makes her look stiff and over-rehearsed now, but it'll pay off later.  Frankly, I'm a little worried she's taking this more seriously than I thought she could.  I'm impressed with her growth over the last few months, and terrified to say that she might actually be able to win this nomination if she keeps it up.

The Wild Cards

Sarah Palin

Still lurking around the perimeter of the campaign like a shark circling a school of trout, the former half-term Governor continues to cast a shadow over the nomination process.  The fun thing about Palin is you really don't know what she'll do next.  She could run, she could endorse somebody, she could try host her own primary somewhere, she could challenge the other candidates to a bus race.  Palin's unique combination of insanity, irrational self-confidence and delusions of grandeur make almost anything possible.  It's probably already a little late for her to get into the race and win, but you can bet she'll do something in the next six months to seriously influence the race.

Rick Perry

Perry just got in, but I've been convinced he was running since last November.  I don't know what people see in him.  They say he created jobs in Texas.  First of all, I thought government doesn't create jobs, so I'm a little confused.  Secondly, he created jobs in Texas by undercutting surrounding states on taxes, wages and regulation.  That trick doesn't work when you're in charge of the whole country. 

For fans of the West Wing, you may remember the guy President Bartlet ran against for re-election, a know-nothing conservative Governor from Florida named Rob Ritchie, played by James Brolin.  At the time, Ritchie seemed like an approximation of George W. Bush, but now he looks like a mirror image of Perry.  As you may recall, Bartlet wiped the floor with Ritchie in the one debate they had, and I'm pretty sure President Obama would do the same with Perry.

The Front Runner

Mitt Romney

Still at the head of the field, for now.  Here's the thing about Mitt Romney.  His message in the debate was an anti-Obama message.  He's trying to prove he can be the guy Republicans want, the guy to go after the President hard and relentlessly.  That's fine for now, but if he wants to beat the President, he needs more.  No matter how low the President's job approval sinks, he's personal popularity remains high.  People like Barack Obama, and Romney can't beat him by bashing him.  If Mitt wins the nomination, he needs to run a positive general election campaign, centered around his own ideas for what he would do as President. 

Romney's religion could still be a problem in the primary, but only if the other candidates work together.  Michele Bachmann can't just come out and talk about Romney being a mormon, it would drag her down too.  What she needs is a third person, say Herman Cain, to start reminding Republican primary voters that Romney isn't really a christian like they are.  Cain would doom his own campaign by overtly making religion an issue, but he isn't going to win anyway.  Evangelical voters would start to get more nervous about Romney then they already are, and Bachmann would reap the windfall while being able to give the ol' "this campaign isn't about Mitt Romney's faith, it's about the American people" soundbite. 

But before that strategy can work, Bachmann and Perry have to figure out who gets the crazy idiot vote.  If they split that half of the party while Romney manages to avoid splitting the slightly more reasonable and somewhat rational half of the party with someone else, Hunstman maybe, then Romney walks to the nomination while the tea people and the evangelicals are arguing over Bachmann and Perry. 

The bottom line for me is this.  Whichever half of the Republican party can decide who they're behind quicker wins.  Right now, Romney has the lead because nobody can cut into his support with the establishment side of the party while the other side of the party is still getting their act together.  When the primaries start, Bachmann will win Iowa, Romney will win New Hampshire and Perry should win South Carolina assuming he runs a halfway decent campaign.  That puts everyone on even footing coming out of the early states and Romney's money and name recognition should be able to carry him from there. 

This only changes if the tea people and evangelicals can get together and pick one person to win Iowa and South Carolina. Then that person starts the rest of the primary process with an advantage and some momentum.  Do I think this will happen?  Probably not.  Can it happen?  Sure.  Does the idea of President Bachmann or President Perry terrify me?  You bet. 

The Darkness

One of my favorite exchanges from the best TV show ever:

President Bartlet: "The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral. Returning violence with violence only multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars."
Leo: "Dr. King"
President Bartlet: "I'm part of that darkness now Leo. When did that happen?"
Leo: "Dr. King wasn't wrong, he just didn't have your job."

So, I don't know if you heard, but apparently, Navy Seals shot Osama Bin Laden in the face last Sunday (awesome work, by the way. If I ever open a restaurant, military people eat free, all the time, forever and ever). In a related story, Donald Trump had a very negative reaction when the world stopped paying attention to him for five minutes, causing him to shoot Meatloaf in the face (I kid Mr. Loaf. I only half kid Mr. Trump, who is nothing more than an inherited billionaire attention whore. He's like an old man version of Paris Hilton).

I admit to having a wide range of reactions to the Bin Laden news. I think I started at "yeah America!". Not just because our military finally got him, but because after eight years of Presidential, let's say, unremarkability, we all got together and said "you know what we should try, electing someone smart". Two and half years later, BANG! Right in the face! Good electing by us.

I've heard multiple Bush administration people and lots of Republicans trying to give the former President some credit for this. I saw Michelle Malkin on Fox literally making the case that the Obama administration finally getting Bin Laden vindicates and justifies everything the Bush administration ever did in the areas of foreign policy and national security.

Come on guys. This happened two and half years into the Obama presidency, this is 100% his thing. I don't understand what's wrong with people sometimes. These are the same people who have been telling me it's Obama's economy now since the summer of 2009. I, by the way, would like to suggest that this is still Ronald Reagan's economy. He's the patron saint of deregulation and never ending tax cuts.

Anyway, then I went to "singing in the streets doesn't really seem like the appropriate reaction to this". I started thinking we're supposed to be the good guys in this fight, and the good guys don't usually do the killing, and they certainly don't usually do the singing about it. Batman doesn't kill the bad guys, he just leaves them tied up for Commissioner Gordon to deal with. This lasted about ten minutes, then I realized this isn't a superhero movie and sometimes you have to kill the bad guys because it's the only way to deal with them.

And yes, while I almost always reject President Bush's black and white, with us or against us view of the world, there are a few people who are just bad guys, and there isn't another side of the story (I feel like all of my Rashard Mendenhall fueled fantasy football victories are tainted). One of those bad guys is now at the bottom of the ocean with a big hole in his face.

Then I thought "the final season of Rescue Me is going to be AWESOME!" Right? It's not necessarily that I think this recent news will make Rescue Me better, although it certainly could, but being reminded of 9/11 immediately reminded me of Rescue Me and how much I can't wait for the last season to start. I may try to freeze myself for the next two months.

After that thought came, "I hope everybody enjoys President Obama's second term, I know I will". Sure it was crass to think about politics at that point, but whatever, I like politics. Just look at the reality of President Obama's clear competence vs. the carnival of morons that currently make up the Republican field. My pick for the GOP nomination, Haley Barbour, who I contend is not a moron and could be a serious candidate, dropped out of the race before he even got in. Thanks for playing. I don't know who to root for in the Republican primaries now. Mitch Daniels? He's like 8 inches tall.

And then, as I went to sleep Sunday night, I think I was back at "yeah America!". But the "yeah America!" of today isn't the same as it was back in, say, 1998. The darkness makes things more complicated, murkier. We know a lot more now, including plenty of things we never wanted to know. I now know that you can't just capture the world's most wanted terrorist, put him on trial and throw him in prison forever. All you can do is find him, shoot him in the face and throw him in the ocean. I really didn't want to know that.