It's Baseball Time Again! - NL Central

What's going on in the NL Central?  These teams all look terrible.  This stupid internet says the Cardinals won the World Series last year, but that can't be right.  I tried the internet at work, just to be sure, and all the internets agree, the defending champs live in St. Louis.  That'll teach me to stop paying attention once the Yankees lose.

St. Louis Cardinals

Bad News:  Bad news goes first for St. Louis.  Remember when the Cardinals had the best hitter in baseball for ten years?  Well, not anymore.  And remember last year when Pujols struggled a little, but Lance Berkman picked up most of the slack.  Well, Lance is 36 and there is NO WAY he hits .300 again.  But don't worry fans, they've replaced Pujols with Carlos Beltran, and Mets fans know Carlos can carry any team to a championship.  Wait, are you saying Mets fans don't know that?

Good News: Adam Wainwright is back.  Wainwright appears to be good to go for opening day.  And with St. Louis not scoring any runs, they're going to need him.  Also, the Cards added serviceable veteran lefty J.C. Romero to what already was a pretty solid bullpen. 

Anything else we need to know?: Shelby Miller is still only 21 years old, but I feel like he's been St. Louis' top prospect since I was playing little league.  Doesn't sound like we'll be seeing him this year either, but you never know with Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook at the bottom of the rotation. 

Prediction: Lots of 2-1 games.  But when you're playing lots of 2-1 games against this division, you're winning most of them and winning the division.  No repeat though.

Cincinnati Reds

Good News: The Reds dealt 28 year old, often injured Edinson Volquez for 24-year-old future stud Mat Latos.  Add that to Homer Bailey, who should start breaking out this year, and Ryan Madson, who is not demonstrably worse than Jonathan Papelbon and never should have been allowed to leave Philly, and the Reds can really pitch.  Also, Scott Rolen can tell all the young kids stories about his rookie season with the world champion 1976 Reds. 

Bad News: I'm not convinced the Reds can hit.  After hitting .281 in 2010 (promising improvement), Jay Bruce regressed to .256 in 2011.  The power keeps coming, but the average keeps disappointing.  Brandon Phillips is 30 now and probably is what he is (and probably isn't hitting .300 again).  Drew Stubbs is another guy who can't hit for average.  Joey Votto is a stud, the rest of this line-up has holes.  Lots of solo home runs in Cincy this season.

Anything else we need to know?: Chris Heisey hit 18 home runs in 279 at-bats last year, which translates to damn near 40 if he plays a full season.  Unfortunately, the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick for some reason.  I guess anytime you can sign a guy who is 33 years old, hit .237 last year and wasn't ever that good to begin with to clog up an outfield spot a younger guy with potential could be filling, you have to do it.

Prediction: With an extra wild card and plenty of games against Pittsburgh, Houston and the Cubs, as much as I hate this division, I think they get two playoff teams.  I hope the Reds enjoy being crushed by whoever they get in the first round of the playoffs.

Milwaukee Brewers

Good News: Ryan Braun doesn't have to miss 50 games.  Bully for Brewers fans.  Hey listen, if you're going to have an appeal process, then everybody has to live with the results.  Ryan Braun's appeal was granted, so he's not a cheater.  I guess that's easy for me to say, since I really don't give a crap about performance enhancers.  I like enhanced performances.

Bad News: While Ryan Braun can play all 162 games for the Brewers this season, Prince Fielder will be playing 0 games for the Brewers, because he doesn't play there anymore.  Corey Hart may not be ready for opening day and no, Aramis Ramirez does not count as a replacement for Fielder. 

Anything else we need to know?: Zack Greinke struck out 201 batters in 171.2 innings last season, and at 28 years old, he should be ready for a huge season.  Also, we should finally see Matt Gamel get serious playing time at first base.  Word is he can hit, but he can't catch.  Guess what?  Prince Fielder can't catch either.

Prediction: The Brewers can contend for a wild card, but I don't think they get one.  Braun can't carry this offense by himself all year.

Chicago Cubs

Good News: Theo Epstein showed up in Chicago this winter and will, I assume, make the Cubs better...someday.  It takes a few years to clean up a mess like this.  Pencil the Cubs in for the post-season around 2016.

Bad News: Is it bad news that picking the Cubs to finish 4th feels like wishful thinking?  Is is bad news that the Cubs don't seem to be able to give away Alfonso Soriano?  Is it bad news that the Cubs entire rotation is made up of cast-offs from other organizations?  All of those things are probably bad news, but if you want the really bad news about the Cubs, just take a minute to look at their roster.  It ain't pretty.

Anything else we need to know?: Starlin Castro is still a few years from his prime, Cubs fans can only hope they'll put a team around him by the time he gets there.

Predictions: Fourth place, if the Cubs are lucky.  What?  Are you saying the Cubs have some kind of well-documented, century-long history of terrible luck?  Hmmmm.  Alright, put it this way.  If the Cubs finish any better than 4th this season, I declare the curse officially over.  Baby steps.

Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros

Ugh...picking between the Pirates and the Astros is like deciding if you want to die by drowning or by being shot in the face.  One of them may sound more pleasant at first, but they both suck and you end up dead either way.

Good News: These two teams play each other a bunch of times so somebody has to win those games, right?  Seriously, looking at these two rosters, the only positive I could come up with is for the Pirates.  They have a few talented young guys (Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata).  Maybe one of them will even be good enough to get traded to the Yankees mid-season for two crappy prospects.

Bad News: AJ Burnett already successfully executed his plan of bunting stuff into his own face until he hit something and got out of starting the season with the Pirates.  When I looked at the Astros roster, I wondered for a minute if Houston was filling out their roster with fake names, the way video games sometimes do.  At least Pittsburgh should be fun to watch, Houston just looks like a mess.

Predictions: Very bad things, son.  Pittsburgh should probably be a little better than Houston.  A little.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - NL Central

Before I start, let me just say this. Congratulations Knicks fans! For only 60% of your starting line-up and half your team, you were able to go from being the 6th best team in the east to being the 5th best team in the east. Quite a day in the big city. Let's get to the baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Opening Thought: "Hello, Baxter? Baxter, is that you? Bark twice if you're in Milwaukee."

I read a story a while back about the food at Miller Park. The writer talked about eating for the cycle, which included four different kinds of sausage. The sausage race at Miller Park also includes four kinds of sausage (including, I'm told, chorizo. Yum). I don't really have a joke or a point, I just think more things in life should include four kinds of sausage.

Off-season: Who knew Milwaukee would be the eventual winners of the Zack Greinke sweepstakes? Add the Shaun Marcum trade and the Brewers spent the off-season improving their starting pitching, which is good because Milwaukee's team ERA was only better than Arizona and Pittsburgh in the NL last year. Sure, nobody wants to be the team stuck with Yuniesky Betancourt, but that's just the way it goes sometimes.

Questions: Can the move to the NL help Zack Greinke bounce back? Can Rickie Weeks do that again and stay healthy?

Answers: Hell yes and probably not. Pencil Greinke in for an ERA in the low 3's and 17-20 wins. Not only is he still really good, but you can't underestimate the psychology of getting out of Kansas City. As for Weeks, last season was the first time he played in more than 130 games and it was the first time he hit over .235 while playing more than 100 games. I need to see both of those things happen again before I'm sold.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. Fielder and Braun are sure things. Casey McGehee and Corey Hart round out a really strong middle of the order. I know people worry about Hart's strike-outs, but he went .283/31/102 last year with 140 strike-outs. It's not like he can go much higher, right? Right?

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen, but I actually don't hate it too much. John Axford is a perfectly adequate option at closer and Manny Parra's move to the bullpen gives them a solid lefty out there. I think they'll need another right-hander (I would count on getting anything useful from LaTroy Hawkins or Takashi Saito), but I've certainly seen worse bullpens.

Closing Thought: Quick disclaimer, all predictions regarding the Brewers assume that the entire state of Wisconsin won't be on strike/laid off/on fire/abandoned by September.

Prediction: First place, really interesting playoff team with Greinke and Gallardo at the top of the rotation and some chips in their system to trade if they're in contention.

Cincinnati Reds
Opening Thought: "We said we weren't gonna talk about Cincinnati ever, OK? - Is that why you have that shoebox in your closet that says 'Cincinnati'?"

I wrote a whole thing about my trip to the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Great park, nice people, awful team. Since then, the Reds have become decidely less awful, and may be growing into the team that the fans and the stadium deserve.

Off-season: If all the Reds did this off-season was get rid of Aaron Harang, that's not such a bad use of their time. And, as far as I can tell, that is basically is all they did. I know they picked up Edgar Renteria, but he's not even slated to be starting and he apparently doesn't become useful until you get to the World Series.

Questions: Can Edinson Volquez get all the way back to his 2008 form? Are Homer Bailey and Travis Wood ready? Is it finally Jay Bruce's year?

Answers: I think so, I honestly don't know and I think so. Jay Bruce turns 24 on April 3rd, so even though he's been up since 2008, he's just now nearing his prime. If Joey Votto can keep up last year's MVP production and Bruce can add a break-out year of his own...watch out. As for the pitchers, I really like Volquez, we'll just have to see how healthy he is. I'm not sure about Homer Bailey, but Travis Wood strikes me as the kind of guy who settles in quickly and puts together a run of perfectly average 15-win seasons.

My Favorite Thing: I like the balance with the Reds. They certainly have the weapons to score runs, the starting pitching is solid and the bullpen might be my favorite part. Francisco Cordero is another perfectly adequate closer and he'll be set-up Aroldis Chapman and Jose Arredondo. Chapman looks as good as advertised and I've always liked Arredondo.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: It's hard to pick something here. This isn't a perfect team, but they're balanced and they've got good organizational depth so they can keep building. The Reds were even tied for the league lead in fielding percentage last year. I guess the bullpen has some question marks, but I really like the upside there.

Closing Thought: Repeating as a division champ isn't easy. As much as I like the Reds, you have to be really good to go back-to-back and I'm not sure they're that good.

Prediction: Second place and a wild card birth. The NL wild card is going to have to deal with the Phillies, so that's probably where the Cincinnati train stops.

St. Louis Cardinals
Opening Thought: "At the current time I am looking at a number of different fields from which to disseminate which offer is most pursuant to my benefit. What do you want? What do I want? What does anybody want? Leniency. These circumstances are mitigated. Right now. They're mitigated. He knows what I'm talking about. A retainer. Nobody in this town works without a retainer. You think you can find someone who does, you have my blessing. But I think we all know that person isn't going to represent you as well as I can...Re-TAIN-er. Retainer."

Off-season: $8 million to Lance Berkman, 2 years at just over $8 million to Jake Westbrook. I could probably find about 8 million Yankee fans who will tell you that Lance Berkman is 8 million percent finished. Meanwhile, they can't scrape together the money to resign Albert Pujols. St. Louis gets no credit for any moves they make until Pujols is signed or traded.

Questions: Just one, because it's the only one that matters. What happens without Adam Wainwright?

Answers: Bad things, very bad things. I've always thought the fortunes of this team were tied to Chris Carpenter and how healthy he can be, but that was because Wainwright was good for 18-20 wins and a sub 3 ERA and you didn't really have to think about it. Now they have to ask Carpenter to carry this pitching staff on his very fragile shoulders. I like Jamie Garcia just fine, but it could still be a long season in St. Louis, especially with the game's best hitter peaking toward the exit.

My Favorite Thing: Offense. This team still has Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and an underrated Skip Schumaker. Jon Jay, who hit .300 in 287 at-bats last year should replace Berkman in right field by opening day. The Cardinals can hit.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. Can you win a division if Jake Westbrook is your number 2 or 3 starter? No, no you can't. Plus, Ryan Franklin is 37 and didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 3.46 ERA last year.

Closing Thought: "Allegedly, I'm saying your situation would be concurrently improved if I had two-hundred bucks in my pocket right now."

Prediction: Third place, and that's only because I know Dave Duncan can make any pitching staff respectable.

Chicago Cubs
Opening Thought: "fool me once, shame on...shame on you...fool me-you can't get fooled again."

The Cubs have been fooling their fans since the Taft administration. All I wanted to do was go out on a limb and pick the Cubs to finally win one. Then, I looked at their roster and, well, here we are.

Off-season: The Cubs replaced Derek Lee at first base with Carlos Pena. Pena is a .241 career hitter who hit .196 last year. That's right, .196. Not against lefties, against everyone. At least he's also old and way past his prime. Also, Chicago may be attempting to return to the glory days of the last time they almost won a championship but then didn't, signing Kerry Wood as a set-up man. I'm setting the over/under on Wood's first DL stint at May 12th.

Questions: Do the Cubs have an ace? Do the Cubs have a number 3 hitter? Is Alfonso Soriano finished?

Answers: No, no and yes, but that happened years ago, why are you just asking now?

My Favorite Thing: Starlin Castro. Castro hit .300 last year as a 20-year old rookie. Things like power and learning how to steal a base will come with experience and the Cubs can build around Castro for the next 12 years.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: So much to choose from, but I'll go with starting pitching. At least the bullpen has Carlos Marmol, who struck-out 138 batters in 77.2 innings last year. That's not a typo. Marmol recorded 233 outs last year, 138 by strike-out. That's crazy.

Closing Thought: The Cubs make me sad. Not only have they gone without a title since 1908, but they aren't even close to one now. This team is old, lacking in talent and just not that good. Help appears to be on the way from the farm system (Trey McNutt, Brett Jackson), but we've heard that before in Chicago and just this off-season they dealt Chris Archer to Tampa.

Prediction: Fourth place. The season is already over for St. Louis' ace, and it's not even March yet. And still, the Cubs won't be better than their rivals.

Houston Astros
Opening Thought: "I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality I could be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves." (maybe I need to explain some of these...Astros...this is from the episode when Homer was an astronaut...some of these are just for me)

Off-season: Houston is another team that seems to have napped through the winter. It seems like they've got a bunch of young guys and they've decided to run them out there this season. I like the attitude, I don't know if they'll like the results.

Questions: What now with Carlos Lee? How good is JA Happ?

Answers: Best case scenario, he starts off hot and the Astros can pawn him off on some unsuspecting contender (as a Yankee fan, I'm shaking my head somberly). As for Happ, very good, I think.

My Favorite Thing: Starting pitching. Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris (who wasn't that good last year but should get better). Teams that are hard to score against are always worth keeping an eye on, and Houston might be hard to score against.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Offense. Specifically, I'm not sure what to make of it. The numbers from Hunter Pence are almost identical for each of the last three years. .280ish, 25HR, 80-90 RBI. Pence turns 28 in April and I'm pretty sure that's what he is. So, who carries this offense? The aging Carlos Lee? Chris Johnson? I'm not sure anybody will.

Closing Thought: This division has too many teams. You can really get bogged down in the middle.

Prediction: Fifth place, but I think the Astros are the wild card in this division. I know what the Cubs are and I know what the Cardinals are without Adam Wainwright, but I'm not really sure about the Astros. Could they finish second, or even contend for the top? Sure. Could they finish last? Well, maybe not in this division.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Opening Thought: "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things that I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul."

The Pirates haven't been even remotely close to possibly contending since Barry Bonds left. Even the Royals have been decent a couple of times in the last 20 years. Even the Nationals have been OK once or twice. The Pirates are just an abomination.

Off-season: The Pirates spent $5 million on Lyle Overbay. I don't even know what to say about that. Do they believe he's the missing piece that'll vault them to 68 wins? They'd be better off just giving five dollars to every fan who shows up in Pittsburgh this year.

Questions: Which Pirate gets to finish the season with the Yankees?

Answers: My money's on Joel Hanrahan.

My Favorite Thing: The Pirates should be fun to watch. Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen. If they actually keep everyone and develop some pitching, Pittsburgh is about three years away from contending. Of course, we've been here before.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: One look at Pittsburgh's pitching staff caused me to immediately look up the single season record for runs allowed by a team (answer: the 1899 Cleveland Spiders who allowed 1252 runs in 154 games).

Closing Thought: When do the Steelers report to training camp?

Prediction: Last place. Another long season in Pittsburgh.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - NL Central

This is the week every year when college basketball goes from being almost as good as college football to being a billion times better. How can anyone watch championship week and the NCAA tournament and still not want a playoff for football? Do you have to fail an IQ test to be a college president? Let's get to the baseball before I punch something.

St. Louis Cardinals
I really like the Cardinal organization. Classy, great baseball city, excellent history. If the Yankees suddenly disappeared, I'd be a Cardinals fan, I wouldn't even have to think about it. When I heard the Cardinals were hiring Mark McGwire to be their new hitting coach, I was pretty shocked. And not, "oh wow, that restaurant was better than I thought it would be" shocked, but more like, "how did that monkey get in my car?" shocked. I thought we were all pretty happy pretending Mark McGwire never existed. I actually thought Mark was pretty happy with that situation too. But after thinking about it for a bit, I've decided this was another classy move from the Cardinals. Here's a guy who did a lot for the Cardinal organization, and then we all found out about the steroids and everyone wants to close their eyes and pretend he's invisible, but not the Cardinals. They're willing to take the heat and give him a chance, I don't have a problem with it. Good for them.

Off-season: Quiet winter for the Cards. They have money, but not a ton, and the money they had needed to go to Matt Holliday. Holliday seems to be a good fit in St. Louis and I think he needs to be somewhere where he can be second banana, so I think St. Louis is a good fit for him too. I like Felipe Lopez for them, because I don't love most of their infield, and Brad Penny was a good bargain signing for them. I would have liked to have seen them add another pitcher, but they can probably live without it.

Line-up: Having the best hitter in the game is a pretty good start, right? You'd have a pretty hard time building a bad line-up around Albert Pujols. And St. Louis has actually built a pretty good line-up around him. If he manages to keep his second base job, I like Skip Schumaker and his .364 OBP as a lead-off hitter. And even if he can't keep his job, Felipe Lopez wouldn't be a bad lead-off option either. Holliday and Ludwick provide solid protection (people think Ludwick dropped off last year, he still drove in 97 runs in 139 games, I'll take that from my third best hitter). I'd love to see a left-handed hitter somewhere in the middle of this line-up, and I'm not sold on Colby Rasmus, or Brendan Ryan, or David Freese, but this line-up is still plenty good.

Pitching: The top two for the Cards can match up with anyone. I thought Wainwright got hosed on the Cy Young voting last year. Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball, so you can worry about the back end of their rotation, but I wouldn't worry that much. If Kyle McClellan wins a spot in the rotation, we might actually see a break out year from him. I like the bullpen too, Ryan Franklin is a stud, don't let anyone tell you different.

Final Thought: St. Louis made a bunch of big mid-season moves last year. I wonder if they've got the organizational depth left to add another bat or another arm if they need one. Also, I'd get worried about this team pretty quickly if Chris Carpenter gets hurt, which is not, like, out of the realm of possibility.

Prediction: First place, playoffs again. I like the Phillies' line-up just a little bit more, so I think the Cards fall just short of the world series, but it's certainly not out of the question.

Houston Astros
It was not easy to figure out the order in which teams fall between St. Louis and Pittsburgh in this division. Like a 7-layer dip of mediocrity, the flavors just sort of blend together. The Astros are a flawed team, but they have a history of futile late season charges, and this season's should land them in 2nd place.

Off-season: Pedro Feliz and Brett Myers are the winter headlines in Houston. Not impressed? I could see how you'd come to that conclusion, but hang on a minute. Pedro is like the new Joe Randa, he has about the same season every year, it's not great, but it's what he does and you can pretty much put it in the bank. I'm not sure what to expect from Myers. He's only 29, but he hasn't pitched to a sub 4 ERA since 2006. You could do worse for a 3rd or 4th starter. Much like the Cardinals, I think this team did what it could with the cash it had.

Line-up: This is an odd line-up. Lee and Berkman aren't done, but I think they'll fall off a bit this year. I do think Hunter Pence is up for a good year, or at least a better one (he hit .309 in September last year, that's not much to go on, but it's all I've got). Michael Bourn is really rounding into form as a solid lead-off guy, .354 on base last year with 61 steals. .354 isn't great, but that's compared to .327 for his career, so at 27 years old it's not crazy to think he can keep it moving upward. On the other hand, they've got a pretty weak underbelly and not a ton of depth. J.R. Towles seems to be the current front runner at catcher, he's a .188 career hitter. That's basically like having two pitchers in your line-up. This team can have its days, but scoring enough runs consistently could be a problem.

Pitching: I'm a huge Roy Oswalt fan, but at 32 it's hard to say he's trending in the right direction (3.54 ERA in 2008, 4.12 last year). I still think he has something left if he's healthy. Wandy Rodriguez was really good last year, and he is trending in the right direction. We already talked about Myers and I really like Bud Norris, who's 25 and struck out almost a batter per inning last year. I'm not wild about the bullpen, but I'm willing to give Matt Lindstrom a chance.

Final Thought: Is it just me, or is Astros one of the weirdest team names in pro sports. I understand why they did it, but that was a long time ago and NASA can't even get back to the moon now. How about the Houston Colts, or the Houston Big Stupid Hats.

Prediction: Solid pitching carries this team to 2nd place, barely. Honestly, the Astros could finish fifth too, it really doesn't matter, I don't expect anyone in this division, outside of St. Louis, to get near the post-season.

Milwaukee Brewers
If there's one thing I like, it's a beer themed baseball team. Beer and baseball go together like beer and...well, everything. Also, I'm told Miller Park has excellent bratwurst, complete with secret stadium sauce. I feel like I could go to a whole game there and never notice the team, which may be a good thing.

Off-season: Not a lot to like here, or even talk about really. Carlos Gomez, Randy Wolf, Gregg Zaun. Hey, Brewers fans! Did I mention the great brats at the ballpark? And if you don't like Brats (for some completely insane reason), they have three or four other kinds of sausages. Not to mention sausage races and all the Miller Lite you can drink. I, by the way, am in no way endorsing Miller Lite. But if you're forcing me to drink a domestic beer, Miller Lite isn't a bad choice.

Line-up: Another odd NL Central line-up. You have to really like Fielder and Braun, and I'm not off the Corey Hart bandwagon yet. Casey McGehee is certainly interesting, .859 OPS last season. But then you have the other guys. Who leads off? Rickie Weeks and his .247 career batting average? Carlos Gomez and his .287 career on base percentage? This line-up has a great middle, but there are a lot of outs here, especially if I'm wrong about Corey Hart.

Pitching: Man, I hate the Brewers' pitching. Before I started looking at rosters, I had Braun and Fielder in my head and I really wanted to pick the Brewers as my wild card team. I like Yovani Gallardo, especially if he can keep his walks down a little. But then you've got the likes of Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis, Manny Parra and Randy Wolf. They really thought they had something in Parra, after a 6.36 ERA last year and opposing hitters hitting .306 against him, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even make the rotation. Miller Park isn't exactly a pitcher's park to begin with. This is another situation where fans might want to bring helmets to the games.

Final Thought: I'm also told that Bernie Brewer no longer slides into a big mug of beer after a Brewer home run. WTF? I am NOT OK with that. When did we all decide that things can't be fun anymore? I hate life sometimes.

Prediction: Third place, or fifth, or second, I don't know. The middle of this division is just a hodge podge, but I do know Milwaukee's pitching will keep them out of the playoffs.

Chicago Cubs
I don't envy Cubs fans. A century of losing, and the White Sox got their title a few years ago, just after the Red Sox did. The Cubs are now really all alone, the undisputed most pathetic losers in sports. I'd really like to tell you I see them putting an end to the pain this year, but I don't.

Off-season: Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady. Sigh. Byrd actually hit .283 last year with 20 home runs, but that was in Texas, and this isn't Texas, and he's 32. I have to say I'd be pretty disappointed if I were a Cubs fan. John Lackey and Jason Bay could both have been nice fits here.

Line-up: This line-up really concerns me. Last year was Derrek Lee's best since 2005, but he's 34 years old and a little injury prone. Aramis Ramirez hit .317 last year when he was healthy, but he only played in 82 games and he's 31. Soriano hit .241 last year, he's 34 years old (or 37 or 43 or 62, no one really knows) and he's already injured. Geovany Soto hit .218 last year. Lots of red flags here. I think people are still expecting the Cubs to hit, I'm not sure why. They'll have their games, but not too many of them.

Pitching: My favorite piece for the Cubs is actually their bullpen. Even with Angel Guzman's shoulder problem, I still like Carlos Marmol and I think the other guys in the bullpen (Grabow, Samardzija) can get to him. You can win a lot of games with decent starters and a good bullpen. Decent starters are the question mark though. I like Big Z, but he's clearly a little crazy. The rest of this rotation is a bit iffy. Guys like Dempster, Lilly and Wells can sometimes get on a roll together and fight their way to a pretty good season, but guys like that can also get lit up at anytime.

Final Thought: When's the last time the Cubs had a big time prospect that really panned out? What happened to Felix Pie? This franchise either drafts badly or develops badly. Both are bad signs for the future.

Prediction: Fourth place, maybe under .500 and Lou Pinella sets a single season ejection record on his way out of town. Next year, new manager Ryne Sandberg starts the long journey to finally winning a championship. But that's next year.

Cincinnati Reds
I went to a game in Cincinnati 5 or 6 years ago. It was July, the Reds were, as usual, going nowhere. I wanted to see Griffey Jr. play in person once before he retired. Of course, I booked the trip in May and Griffey was back on the DL by the time I got there. Still, I had a good time at the game. Great ballpark, good food too (did you know Cincinnati is the chili capital of the world, or at least America? I know, it doesn't sound right, but I swear it's true). The team was pretty forgettable though, and they still are.

Off-season: Two big stories for the Reds this winter. The positive one, signing Aroldis Chapman. After the big money teams passed on him, I was worried he wouldn't be anything special, but now I'm hearing he looks great in camp, and he's only 22. This could turn out pretty well. The negative one, Edinson Volquez is out for the year. Well done, Dusty, well done.

Line-up: I honestly don't hate this line-up. Brandon Phillips is still only 28 and I'm predicting a big year, like top 10 MVP voting year, for Jay Bruce. I know that's a bit of a stretch for a guy who hit .223 and got hurt last year, but I really like Bruce. I'm not sold on everyone else though. Orlando Cabrera's 35, and Scott Rolen is 34 and physically incapable of staying healthy. Clearly, this is an offense in transition, but that doesn't help them this year.

Pitching: I don't like the Reds' pitching without Volquez. I'm not a big Johnny Cueto fan and I think Homer Bailey is probably one year away. I've never been impressed with Harang as an ace and Bronson Arroyo is still Bronson Arroyo, at least he was the last time I checked. Francisco Cordero is a solid closer, I'm just not sure they'll need him much. Does this staff have upside? Definitely. Do I think we'll see that upside this year? Probably not.

Final Thought: I'll be interested to see how much trading the Reds do if they're not in it by July. Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Ramon Hernandez and Arthur Rhodes could all be interesting to contenders if the Reds decide to have a real fire sale. The Reds could be the belle of the trading deadline ball and they could get a ton of good pieces back for these guys. I think I'd do it.

Prediction: Fifth place, although there's potential here to do better. They can't touch the Cardinals either, but they can get to second if things go well.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Here, again, we get to the fun part. This team is awful, an unmitigated disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh lost 100 games. And yet, when you look at them on paper, could I talk you into maybe 83 wins for this team? I bet I could.

Off-season: The Pirates don't even really count for the off-season, but they did actually pick up some players. Ryan Church can really contribute when he's healthy, but will most likely spend the season making Pittsburgh's DL league team the best in the league. Brendan Donnelly is interesting too. Yes, he's 38 and he looked done in 2007 and 2008, but he was lights out in 30 games for Florida last year, so who knows.

Line-up: Young, that's really the only word you need, this line-up is super young. 31 year old Akinori Iwamura sticks out like a sore thumb and has mid-season trade written all over him (if he can stay healthy and produce, both big ifs). Doumit is the key here. If he can stay healthy and hit, this young line-up may be able to come together around him. McCutchen, Milledge, LaRoche, Clement, Jones. If even two of those guys can step up with good years, this team will be able to score and compete most days.

Pitching: I don't hate the Pirates' staff as much as, say, the Nationals, but it's still not good. I like Zack Duke and I sort of like Paul Maholm, but that's pretty much it. We already talked about Brendan Donnelly, and they'll need him whenever they find out Octavio Dotel is done for the year, which could happen at any time. Pittsburgh should give up plenty of runs, but they'll get some good outings from some starters.

Final Thought: This team doesn't have a whole lot to offer contenders at the deadline. It's too bad they can't trade their very nice ballpark for some young pitching.

Prediction: Last place, and it could get ugly. The thing about a young team is you never really know what you're going to get from anyone. I could see this team jumping up and battling the likes of Cincinnati to get out of the basement, but I wouldn't bet on it.