It's Baseball Time Again! - AL Central

Can anyone in this division challenge Detroit? The short answer is no. The long answer is noooooooooo. The only possible challenger is Chicago, but they lost their ace, their closer, their manager and they didn't lose Adam Dunn. Minnesota can always be feisty, but they don't have anything for the Tigers.  Cleveland isn't ready yet.  We'll be able to call this division by August.

Detroit Tigers

Good News: The Tigers can hit. I mean really hit. Miguel Cabrera's lowest totals in the last three seasons are .324/30HR/103RBI. That's what you get if you make one season out of the worst of Miguel's last three. Prince Fielder might be chasing 300 pounds, but he's also a lock for at least 30 homers and an on-base percentage at or above .400. No weak spots in this line-up (even the shortstop hits more like a third baseman). Oh, and that Verlander guy is pretty good too.

Bad News: The Tigers can't catch, like, at all. Cabrera will be lucky to make opening day after he fielded a grounder with his face. The second baseman is just a converted outfielder. The shortstop really should be playing third base. The only good defensive player they have on the infield is Brandon Inge, and he'll be watching Cabrera butcher his position all year. Nothing is more infuriating for a baseball fan than watching your team botch a routine defensive play, and I predict lots of TV's flying out windows in Michigan this summer.

Anything else we need to know?: Justin Verlander has gone over 200 innings in each of the last five seasons, and he went just over 250 last year. This is either a sign that he's super durable, or that his arm is about to fall off. Durable seems more likely, but Tigers fans better keep their fingers crossed just to be sure.

Prediction: First place, but you need to be able to catch a little in the post-season.

Cleveland Indians

Good News: Shin-Soo Choo (or as I like to call him, the choo choo train) is back and should get back to hitting around .300 with 20 or so homeruns, 20 or so steals and 100 or so RBI.  Travis Hafner is back too.  Well, for now, until he gets hurt again, which he will.  I love Justin Masterson (I predict he'll finish in the top 10 in Cy Young voting this year) and the pitching staff as a whole isn't terrible.

Bad News: Everyone knows god hates Cleveland.  And even if that wasn't true (which it isn't, because even if god was real, he wouldn't give a shit about sports), the Indians have a lot of nice pieces, but they're missing the one guy who can carry them.  In contrast, Detroit has three of those guys.

Anything else we need to know?: I still believe in Ubaldo Jiminez.  Last year was really bad, and I have almost no evidence to back this up, but I think Ubaldo bounces back this year to the tune of an ERA under 3.50 and at least 15 wins.

Prediction: Second place.  I just don't think the Indians have what they need to push Detroit.

Chicago White Sox

Good News: I really don't mind Chicago's starting rotation. They don't have an ace, but they have a lot of decent arms. None of Chicago's starters would make me nervous as a White Sox fan, any of them can win any given game. As a Yankee fan who suffered through AJ Burnett last season, I know there's value in having five viable starters, none of whom are great, but none of whom are terrible.

Bad News: Gordon Beckham is 25 now, and he hit .230 last year. Alex Rios hit .227 last year. Paul Konerko is coming off two of his best three seasons ever, but he's 36 and I'm not sure he can keep it up. And then there's Dunn, who hit .159 last year in 415 at-bats. Seriously. Asking where the runs are going to come from would be an understatement. Other than Konerko, this offense is just awful.

Anything else we need to know?: White Sox fans are about to find out how boring a mediocre baseball team can be without Ozzie Guillen.  I also think Guillen, while clearly insane, may be one of the few managers in baseball who can actually effect game outcomes in a positive way.  We may find out that the White Sox are worse than we thought.

Prediction: Third place, probably can't be better, might be worse.

Minnesota Twins

Good News: Mauer and Morneau appear to be healthy and good to go.  Morneau really struggled last year, but I'm willing to give him one more year to see if he can bounce back now that he's healthy.  Josh Willingham makes a nice addition here too, they needed something from the right side.

Bad News: Life is all bad news when Carl Pavano is your opening day starter.  Carl Pavano will never be forgiven.  Do you hear me?  NEVER!

Anything else we need to know?: Matt Capps is one of the least inspiring closers in the game, and will probably lose his job to Glen Perkins by June 1st.  This will, of course, most likely result in some poor contending sap (please not the Yankees, please not the Yankees) trading for him in July and then being shocked and disappointed when he's terrible.  Sometimes I wonder if MLB GM's are allowed to watch baseball games.

Prediction: Fourth place.  I'm always sort of down on Minnesota, but this year I think I'm right.

Kansas City Royals

Good News: Lots of young talent (Hosmer, Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) and Alex Gordon finally showed up last year.  Salvador Perez fell into the young talent category too, but he just had knee surgery.  Point is, I watched a lot of Royals games on my MLB package last summer, because they're interesting, and I'll probably watch a lot of Royals this summer too.

Bad News: Young doesn't necessarily mean they're good yet.  Also, something seems to have gone horribly wrong with Joakim Soria, and now I'm reading that he might need Tommy John surgery (again).  Their back-up closer is Jonathan Broxton, who was, of course, completely destroyed by Joe Torre. 

Anything else we need to know?: Luke Hochevar seems to be falling into the "never quite panned out" category.  And really, Kansas City's whole rotation is a concern.  Am I the only one who feels like Bruce Chen's been around forever?  Did the Braves call him up when he was 12 or something?

Prediction: Last place.  I want to believe.  I don't though.

My Bigger Fatter Baseball Preview - AL Central

Chicago White Sox
Opening Thought: As I mentioned last year, the White Sox are the President's team, and it's sort of fitting. Like the President, the White Sox had a 2010 that was good, but still somehow disappointing. And, like the President, I'm optimistic about the White Sox again for 2011 even though I should probably know better by now.

Off-season: 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38 and 38. Those are the home run totals for Adam Dunn for the last 7 seasons. Six of those seasons also included RBI totals over 100, and five of them came with on-base percentages above .380. Why does it always seem like teams aren't really interested in this guy? He's still only 31. I know he's never hit above .267, but I call Dunn a big score at a reasonable price for the White Sox. Chicago also added Jesse Crain and Will Ohman to the bullpen and the supposedly talented Lastings Milledge to their minor league system. Nice winter work for Kenny Williams.

Questions: Doesn't it feel like AJ Pierzynski has been around forever? Did I need some help spelling Pierzynski? Could Chicago actually get something out of Milledge?

Answers: Seriously, yes. I feel like AJ could tell us what it was like to catch Cy Young. And yes, of course I need help with Pierzynski. As for Milledge, I think maybe they could get something out of him. He's still only 25 and he did hit .277 last year (with basically no power or speed, but that's a start I guess).

My Favorite Thing: Pitching. 25 year old John Danks has made at least 32 starts and posted an ERA under 4 in each of the last three seasons. I'm not a huge Mark Buehrle fan, but he's started at least 30 games every season since 2001. Edwin Jackson has made at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons and pitched to a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts with Chicago last year. They'll need Jake Peavy back to put them over the top, but I love seeing a healthy, reliable rotation around a big question mark like Peavy.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: As much as I like Dunn, I'm a little worried about Chicago's offense. Gordon Beckham was awful (.252/9HR/49RBI) in his first full season, Alexei Ramirez doesn't seem to be developing past anything other than a solid shortstop, Paul Konerko is 35 and won't hit .300 again and I'm not wild about Juan Pierre this season either. I wouldn't say I'm negative on Chicago's offense, just skeptical.

Closing Thought: If the White Sox don't get anything out of Jake Peavy this year, I take back putting them in first.

Prediction: First place, I'm fairly certain nobody from the Central will wind up representing the AL in the world series.

Minnesota Twins
Opening Thought: Marshall - "Yeah, this is like a spring day back in Minnesota if it wasn't for all the taxis, skyscrapers and non-white people."
Lily -"There aren't any black people in Minnesota?"
Marshall -"Not if Prince is on tour."

Off-season: Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The fact that the Twins wound up with Nishioka when landing Japanese players is generally all about money tells me I shouldn't be too excited about this guy. Additionally, if you're from New York, you've already had one awful experience with a Japanese middle infielder. I think Met fans would tell Twin fans to hope for the best but expect the worst.

Questions: How quickly can Joe Nathan return to form? Can Justin Morneau stay healthy for a full season.

Answers: I'd be a little worried about Nathan if I was Minnesota. Relievers don't last forever and Joe is 36. I'm not saying he can't come back, I'm just saying the optimism should be cautious. I don't know about Morneau. In the three years before 2009, he averaged 159 games played. It isn't always easy to tell the difference between injury-prone guys and guys who just had some bad luck. I'm not sure what to expect, I'd probably advise more cautious optimism.

My Favorite Thing: The Twins basically bring to the table the same offense they had last year, which is still pretty good, especially if Morneau does stay healthy. Who knew Delmon Young would finally figure it out? I'm not sure I can say I did, but he's still only 25, and the Twins got him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Pretty good deal.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Carl Pavano. 26 starts in four seasons as a Yankee, 65 starts in the two seasons since. He will never be forgiven.

Closing Thought: I don't really like Minnesota's pitching on paper, but it always seems to turn out OK for them. I always like Minnesota for third or fourth place, but they never finish that low. I've learned my lesson, sort of.

Prediction: Second place. Obviously, if both Morneau and Nathan never really show up, it could be worse.

Detroit Tigers
Opening Thought: "I'm in no condition to be driving. Wait a minute...I shouldn't be listening to myself, I'm drunk!"

If I've learned anything from movies and TV, it's that people who seem to be spiraling out of control need to hit bottom in an entertaining yet sad way before their inevitable redemption. So, I like the 2013 Tigers to ride Miguel Cabrera's redemption to the world series, but I'm a little nervous about him for 2011. If Cabrera misses significant time, Detroit looks pretty ordinary to me.

Off-season: Victor Martinez has missed significant time in two out of the last three years, and he's 32, which is approximately 40 in catcher years. Still, if he stays healthy, that's a good pick-up. Unlike, say, Jhonny Peralta (hit .249 last year) and Brad Penny (really should have stayed in the NL).

Questions: Will Joel Zumaya ever get healthy? Will Austin Jackson regress a little in his 2nd year, or get better?

Answers: Sadly, the answer to the Zumaya question seems to be no. Jackson's .396 average on balls in play last year suggests a regression, but I think he'll still be OK.

My Favorite Thing: Power, especially if Cabrera is around all year. When you look around the Detroit line-up, setting aside Magglio Ordonez, they've got a bunch of guys who can hit home runs and scare pitchers.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Bullpen. Not a lot to like out there for the Tigers. Jose Valverde, for example, sports a career ERA over 3. There's a reason a guy who strikes out well over a batter per inning has pitched for three different teams in eight seasons.

Closing Thought: If everything goes right for Detroit, there's no reason they can't do better than third. I just see a lot that could go wrong.

Prediction: Third place. The bright side is, I don't think they can do any worse.

Kansas City Royals
Opening Thought: I'm sure every player who's ever been traded out of Kansas City really misses the Royal Crown Cola.

Off-season: I can't imagine a lot of other GM's were punching their desks when Bruce Chen and Melky Cabrera went off the market. I do think Jeff Francis makes an interesting pick-up, even though he's 30 now. I know it's hard to find a lot to like about Francis, who was actually worse on the road last year than he was at Coors Field, but he was talented once, and when you're the Royals, sometimes you have to take chances like this and cross your fingers.

Questions: When will the Royals trade Joakim Soria? WHEN?

Answers: I'm actually less interested in this question this year, I kind of like the Yankees' set-up situation right now, but Soria would still be an upgrade. When can we have him? Did you know Soria's career ERA (2.01) as actually better than Mariano Rivera's (2.23)?

My Favorite Thing: I honestly kind of like Kansas City's starting pitching. Francis, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar are all supposed to have some talent. I've been fooled by all of those guys before, especially Davies, but I still think it's enough to make the Royals better than Cleveland.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Offense. I like Billy Butler (batting average up 17 points last year, strike-outs down 25), and that's pretty much it. Lorenzo Cain should be fun to watch if he makes the opening day line-up (and seriously, why wouldn't he, it's not like the Royals are going anywhere). Just not a lot of runs here.

Closing Thought: What happened to Alex Gordon? He went from the next George Brett to competing for an outfield spot with Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francour. I really don't need to add anything to that.

Prediction: Fourth place. I propose we award the Royals an extra win anytime they wear the light blue throwbacks, I love those things.

Cleveland Indians
Opening Thought: Insert Charlie Sheen/wild thing joke here.

Off-season: Yet another team that was terrible last year and decided to stick with it. I know everyone in Cleveland is still recovering from the Lebron thing, but it's time to starting moving on.

Questions: Can we find a relatively attractive but highly unlikeable owner to motivate the Indians to overachieve? That plan has worked before.

Answers: Probably not, but one can always hope. Hey, maybe one day Lebron can buy the Indians. He's not attractive, but he's certainly unlikeable.

My Favorite Thing: Youth. Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana. I'll be interested to see Cleveland play this year, even if they won't be winning a whole lot. Interesting stat, Santana was hitting .260 last year before he got hurt, which is solid for a rookie, but that's not the interesting stat. His on-base percentage when he got hurt last year was .401. Now, Santana didn't do it for a full season, but it's worth noting that, if he had, that would have placed him tied for 6th in all of baseball.

My Most Unfavorite Thing: Pitching. Move along people, nothing to see here (I think I've used that joke before. In fact, it's possible I used it for Cleveland's pitching last year). To be fair, Fausto Carmona posted a very respectable 3.77 ERA last year. The last time Carmona pitched over 200 innings and posted an ERA under 4 was 2007, his ERAs for the next two years were 5.44 and 6.32. So, it's possible he's turned a corner, but it's also possible he can't put together two straight strong years.

Closing Thought: Sad times in Cleveland, just sad times.

Prediction: Last place. Cleveland can out-hit Kansas City, but they can't out-pitch them. If good pitching beats good hitting, then I think it stands to reason that mediocre pitching and awful hitting can beat awful pitching and mediocre hitting.

My Big Fat Baseball Preview - AL Central

Continuing with the AL Central...

Chicago White Sox (AKA The Chicago Red Army)
President Obama is a White Sox fan. So, obviously, they're communists. And if you're rooting for this team, you're a communist too. I want to assure everyone that I'm not rooting for the Red Army, I'm just picking them to finish in first. It's not my fault communists are such good pitchers.

Off-season: The interesting thing about this team's off-season is that their two biggest moves for this year didn't happen in the winter, they happened last summer at the deadline. There are two kinds of baseball fans, people who believe in Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, and people who win fantasy leagues. Me? I believe. I think Juan Pierre was a nice addition too. He spent a lot of time sitting around and watching baseball in LA, so I think he's got a year or two of good baseball left in him.

Line-up: I'm not sure what the Sox were thinking when they signed Andruw Jones to be their DH. Andruw's batting averages for the last three years are .222, .158 and .214. That's not a recipe for success, even if the power did come back a little last year. Luckily, I like the rest of this line-up. I see a big year coming for Gordon Beckham. Don't surprised if Alex Rios bounces back too. I know he only hit .199 in 41 games with Chicago last year, but before that he had three straight seasons of hitting at least .290 and he averaged 82 RBI over those same three years in a bad Toronto line-up. Mark Teahan's a solid addition too, he's 28 and this is the best team he's ever been on, he could have a career year. Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin should have better years too, if Quentin can stay healthy. I like this team to score plenty of runs.

Pitching: Like I said, I believe in Jake Peavy. I like John Danks and Gavin Floyd too. Mark Buehrle is a little overrated for me if you're calling him a #1, but I can live with him as a #2 behind Peavy. Bobby Jenks isn't a top-notch closer, but he's workable. Most of his peripherals stayed about the same last year, and his strike-outs actually went up. It was the home run jump from 3 to 9 that really hurt him. That could be a bad sign, but it could also be a fluke. And don't forget about J.J. Putz. He was a dominant closer in '06 and '07, if he can get the Met stink off of himself, he can be a solid 8th inning guy.

Final Thought: This team may be a bat short. I like Chicago's line-up, but they have a lot of "what ifs". Like, what if Carlos Quentin gets hurt again? What if Alex Rios can't get it back? What if Juan Pierre is suddenly done or can't handle playing everyday? The good news? Chicago has some trade-worthy talent in their system and Ken Williams isn't afraid to deal it away.

Prediction: First place, probably a first round playoff loss to whatever AL east team wins the wild card. They'll need someone other than Peavy to step up and be lights out in October to have a chance, and I don't think that happens.

Detroit Tigers
A few years ago, I compared Detroit to the sad little British towns that every Dickens novel seems to take place in. My buddy Dave, who I had been there with, responded by saying "yeah, it was the worst of times, it was the worst of times". I don't know if things have gotten any better there since then (I'm guessing probably not, since I was there in April 2007 and the economy has since, ya know, imploded). I bring this up because I usually root for Detroit teams if they're contending for a title and the team I'm a fan of is out of it. I don't think they'll win the division, but I'd like them to. (especially since they'd be beating Obama's communist baseball army)

Off-season: Christmas came late for Detroit, they didn't pick up Johnny Damon until late February. Sounds like a pretty crappy Christmas too, right? Well, maybe not. I wouldn't expect Johnny to do a whole lot of running, or catching, or throwing. But everything I've seen tells me he can still hit. His 24 home runs last year tied a career high and his 82 RBI were the most for him since 2004. Those numbers will come down a bit leaving Yankee Stadium and that great line-up, but I'm still fairly convinced a healthy Damon can give you .270, 17HR, 75RBI.

Line-up: Having said that about Damon, he won't replace the guy they lost in their biggest off-season move, and I have a lot of concerns about this line-up. I'm not sold on Austin Jackson being ready, and between him and Scott Sizemore, it's hard not to see at least one of them being back in the minors by June. Magglio Ordonez's home run total has gone from 28 to 21 to 9 over the last three seasons, so while he can still hit (.310 last year), from where are they planning to get power? Outside of Miguel Cabrera (3 straight 30+ HR seasons and 6 straight with 100+ RBI), I don't see any scary bats. The Tigers will have their big days when everyone gets two hits, but they'll also have some bad days with plenty of runners left on base.

Pitching: Justin Verlander's last three seasons look like this:
18-6, 3.66 ERA, 183 K's, 67 BB's
11-17, 4.84 ERA, 163 K's, 87 BB's
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 269 K's, 63 BB's
Which one of these things is not like the other? Was 2008 a fluke? Can Verlander have two good years in a row again like he did in '06 and '07? I'm not sure what to expect, but it looks like he's moving in the right direction. The rest of this rotation doesn't impress me, I'm expecting a little bit of a step back from Rick Porcello. And once again, the Tigers have been duped by a closer with lots of saves but so-so peripheral numbers. I don't expect them to be too happy with Jose Valverde. A healthy Joel Zumaya can still be a good 8th inning guy or closer, but finding a healthy Zumaya is like finding a healthy leprechaun.

Final Thought: One of the things I really like about the Tigers is the amount of legit young talent they have. I expect this team to keep getting better over the next few years. So while I don't have them in the playoffs this year, I think we'll see them there soon.

Prediction: Second place and no post-season. They could easily hop over Chicago if their rotation exceeds expectations, but I don't think it will.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins get huge bonus points from me for moving their baseball outdoors where baseball belongs. I think I saw a game at the Metrodome once. My uncle lived in Minnesota for a while, I'm pretty sure we went to a game one of the times we visited him. I was probably about nine years old. Even then, I knew the Metrodome was an abomination. I expect the baseball gods to give the Twins at least five extra wins this year.

Off-season: The Twins aren't usually the most active team in the winter, unless they're unloading players, but Minnesota was actually pretty feisty this year. Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome and J.J. Hardy are all interesting pick-ups for a team that already has the middle of the order all set. I would have preferred a right-handed bat over Thome, maybe Jermaine Dye. Of course, the most important off-season event for the Twins just happened. Joe Mauer just signed an eight year/$184 million contract. As a Yankee fan, all I can say is, oh well.

Line-up: Lots to like here. Mauer and Morneau(196 combined RBI last year in spite of missing 51 combined games) anchor a line-up that's solid all the way around. It's easy to build a good line-up when you've got the 3-4 part squared away. They've got five people for three outfield positions and a DH spot, so the question is, who sits? Looks like it'll be Thome to start, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wound up being Delmon Young most days, his career has been a constant disappointment. Either way, with a good middle and more options than line-up spots, I expect this team to score.

Pitching: I don't like the Twins' pitching. Joe Nathan leaves a giant hole in the bullpen and I'm not counting on Jon Rauch to fill it (Rauch's ERA's for the last three seasons; 3.61, 4.14 and 3.60. That's not a dominant closer, that's barely passable). They say Liriano looks great, but if you don't win championships in April, you certainly don't win them in winter ball, so I'll believe it when I see it against real competition. Plus, anytime you're counting on Carl Pavano to do anything useful, you're just asking for disaster.

Final Thought: If I could have one wish from one baseball team this year, I think I'd ask the Twins for a Michelle Bachmann bobble head day. I don't really think I have to explain the fun symbolism of a little Bachmann doll with a giant empty head.

Prediction: Third place. The Twins always seem to overachieve, so don't be shocked if they find a way to win the division, I just don't know if they have the pitching.

Kansas City Royals
I definitely want to see a game in Kansas City one day. The Royals see anything you can put in your ballpark, and they raise you Kansas City BBQ and cool water fountains. Sadly, it's been about two decades since the Royals put a good team in their ballpark. Oh well, can't have it all I guess.

Off-season: The Royals added Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Jason Kendall and Josh Fields. Hmmm, umm, it's not that I don't like those four guys, I actually like all of them except for Kendall. But, I'm not sure that's all you needed to fix a last place team. They also get Alex Gordon back, and I do think that makes a difference. This team should be marginally better than last year, but that isn't really saying much.

Line-up: I expect big years from Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Jose Guillen is still a nice player when he's not doing something crazy, which actually seems to be happening less lately. I like Podsednik and Dejesus too. This is a team with a lot of nice hitters, but unless Butler or Gordon go all Barry Bonds on us, the line-up as a whole just doesn't have enough.

Pitching: I really like the Royals' pitching, especially the starters. Zack Greinke is a stud. I like one of either Luke Hochevar or Kyle Davies to have a surprisingly good year and Gil Meche is serviceable (well, he was serviceable, last year's 5.09 ERA was more terrible than serviceable, but I expect him to bounce back). Joakim Soria is one of the league's best closers (you never know when the Royals will finally trade him, but he's still there for now). Kansas City's pitching should keep them in a lot of games, good teams will have to earn the wins against them.

Final Thought: The Royals are always one of those interesting trade deadline teams. Will Joakim Soria go somewhere? Could Jose Guillen or Rick Ankiel help a contender? Unfortunately, this is probably the most exciting part of the season for Royals fans.

Prediction: Fourth place. I think Kansas City's pitching makes them better than Cleveland, but that's about it.

Cleveland Indians
It's entirely possible the Indians won't even get to finish this season. If Lebron signs with another team this summer, sports fans in Cleveland might just set the city on fire and abandon it. Would you blame them? Me neither.

Off-season: As far as I can tell, the Indians slept through most of the winter, then woke up late and signed Russell Branyan. I know it's not a big market, but this was an awful team last year with a few gaping holes. This winter would have been a good time to do something, ya know?

Line-up: I'm starting to think Grady Sizemore reminds me a lot of Carlos Beltran, the kind of guy who's good at everything but isn't great at anything. You love having guys like that on your team, but it doesn't work out so well when that guy is your best player. The rest of this line-up has too many young guys who may or may not be ready to give them anything. Lots of upside here, especially if Michael Brantley gets into the everyday line-up, but you probably won't see most of that upside for a year or two.

Pitching: Speaking of upside, I don't see a lot of it with Cleveland's pitching. There's not one guy on this entire staff that I'd say I like. Kerry Wood's already hurt and every Indians fan died a little last year when Sabathia and Lee faced off in the world series. Lots of souvenirs in Cleveland this year.

Final Thought: Major League is still the best baseball movie ever, and you Bull Durham people can't tell me any different.

Prediction: Last place, this could get ugly. This team would need big seasons from a number of unproven young guys to get anywhere near the post-season. And even then, they still don't have any pitching.